1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global aluminum market has a continuous supply - demand gap. Supply - side constraints from domestic policies and overseas power issues are strong, with a low probability of unexpected increments. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high profits to promote overseas production/复产 to fill the long - term supply - demand gap. The financial and resource attributes of aluminum prices are strongly driven by global geopolitical issues, the US mid - term elections, and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" start. Demand has bright spots in energy transformation and lightweighting. [4] - The Middle East geopolitical conflict has affected aluminum production in the region. Before the further expansion of aluminum production cuts in the Middle East, concerns about economic weakness may lead to capital outflows and a callback in aluminum prices, but the decline may be relatively moderate due to the 600,000 - ton production cut in local aluminum plants. If the conflict continues until mid - April, there is a risk of further expansion of production cuts, and the divergence between financial attribute drag and fundamental bullish factors will be more obvious. [4] - For alumina, the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to rising shipping and domestic road transport prices. Guinea is about to introduce bauxite export restrictions, but downstream buyers are reluctant to accept the price increase. Domestic alumina new projects are about to start production, and alumina prices are expected to be under pressure. [102] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Aluminum Fundamentals - The global aluminum market has a supply - demand gap. Supply - side constraints include domestic policies and overseas power issues, with low probability of unexpected increments. The price elasticity is expanding, and the supply - side's risk - resistance ability is weak. [4] - The financial and resource attributes of aluminum prices are strongly driven by global geopolitical issues, the US mid - term elections, and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" start. Demand has bright spots in energy transformation and lightweighting. [4] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Before the further expansion of aluminum production cuts in the Middle East, economic weakness concerns may lead to capital outflows and a callback in aluminum prices, but the decline may be relatively moderate. If the conflict continues until mid - April, there is a risk of further expansion of production cuts, and aluminum prices may rise impulsively and then fall with the sector. [4] - Arbitrage: After the geopolitical conflict eases, there is an expectation of convergence in the domestic - overseas price difference. [4] Impact of Middle East Geopolitical Conflict - Aluminum smelting enterprises in the Middle East have reduced their operating rates. The current production cut volume has not exceeded the expectation in early March. Enterprises are actively looking for other transportation routes to supplement raw materials, and the next observation window for production cuts is in early April. [4][5] - Before the expansion of production cuts, the upward momentum of aluminum prices has weakened. The pessimistic expectations of economic recession and demand decline due to high oil prices are transmitted to aluminum prices through financial and commodity attributes, especially when the net long positions of LME aluminum speculative funds are still relatively high. [4] Supply - side Situation - Global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum production data from 2023 - 2026 are presented, showing trends in production volume and growth rate. [63][64] - Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity changes are listed, including new investments, expansions, and production cuts in different regions and enterprises from 2024 - 2026. [70][71] Demand - side Situation - In the photovoltaic field, in January 2026, the output of photovoltaic modules was 35.2GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5GW. In 2025, the annual output of modules was 563.2GW, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.2%. The short - term demand for photovoltaic modules is uncertain. [79] - In the automotive field, in February 2026, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, but exports maintained high growth. New energy vehicle production and sales also decreased year - on - year. [83] - In the real estate field, from January - February 2026, real estate development enterprise construction area, new construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. [86] - In the power investment and cable field, during the "15th Five - Year Plan", China's power grid construction investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan. In February 2026, the output of aluminum rods was 287,000 tons, and the cumulative output from January - February was 623,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5.46%. [90] - In the home appliance field, in March 2026, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.0% compared with the same period last year. [93] - In the export field, in February 2026, China exported 430,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January - February, the cumulative export was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. With the increase in export profits, the export volume of aluminum products is expected to continue to increase. [96] Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - The global electrolytic aluminum balance table from 2018 - 2030 is provided, including global production, demand, balance, overseas production, demand, net export, and balance, as well as China's production, demand, net import + strategic reserve release, and balance. [97] Alumina Alumina Strategy Outlook - Macro aspect: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to rising shipping and domestic road transport prices. [102] - Raw material aspect: Guinea is about to introduce bauxite export restrictions, but downstream buyers are reluctant to accept the price increase. [102] - Supply aspect: As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week. In Guizhou and Guangxi, there will be planned roasting furnace maintenance, and a new alumina project in Guangxi is about to start production, with expected output in mid - to late April. [102][111] - Transaction strategies: Unilateral: Domestic new projects are about to start production, and alumina prices are expected to be under pressure. Arbitrage and options: Temporary wait - and - see. [102] Alumina Capacity and Supply - The national alumina operating capacity has a narrow - range fluctuation. The southwest region has new projects about to start production. [109][111] - The alumina supply - demand balance situation is presented, including production, demand, and inventory changes. [110] Alumina Cost and Profit - In February 2026, the national alumina weighted full - cost was 2,604 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 656 yuan/ton. The average profit of the alumina industry was 22 yuan/ton. [120] - The cost and profit of alumina in different regions are compared, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi maintaining full - cost profitability. [118][119] Alumina Inventory - As of March 19, the national alumina inventory was 5.369 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last week. The inventory of production enterprises at both ends has decreased, and the market variables are mainly concentrated in ports and public warehouses. [123] Alumina Import and Export - There is a real - time import profit in the alumina market. Due to the significant decline in oil prices, the sea freight of alumina from Australia to China's main ports decreased by about 2 US dollars on March 10. [126][131] New Alumina Projects - Overseas and domestic new alumina projects are listed, including the production capacity and progress of projects in different countries and regions from 2024 - 2028. [134][136] Bauxite Situation - The price of Guinea bauxite has increased, and the 45/3 bauxite sea - floating spot transaction price has reached 64 US dollars/dry ton. [138] - The arrival data of bauxite at major ports, the shipping volume of Guinea bauxite, and the price comparison of domestic and overseas bauxite are presented. [139][140] - The theoretical available days of Chinese bauxite inventory are analyzed. [141][142] Alumina Supply - Demand Balance - The global metallurgical - grade alumina supply - demand balance forecast from 2017 - 2027 is provided, including global production, demand, balance, overseas production, demand, net export, and balance, as well as China's production, demand, net import, and balance. [148] - The alumina cost calculation corresponding to the price of Guinea bauxite is presented. [149]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices experienced a significant surge followed by a decline due to geopolitical situations and the sharp fluctuations in precious metal prices. Currently, the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continues to accumulate. High prices combined with the off - season for demand result in weak downstream demand, but this does not constitute a major negative factor for prices. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum spot provides strong support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 24,000 - 25,200 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is 3,050 - 3,220 US dollars/ton [11][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.996 million tons. In January, the electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will remain relatively stable in February, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In January 2026, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [11]. - Inventory & Spot: According to MYSTEEL data, the aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The total aluminum rod inventory was 253,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The LME global aluminum inventory was 494,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week. The spot basis of domestic East China aluminum ingots weakened, and the LME market Cash/3M discount widened [11]. - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Recently, the loss of Shanghai aluminum spot imports has narrowed [11]. - Demand: According to SMM research, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing this week decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% compared to last week. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum profiles declined significantly, while the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, foils, rods, and alloys decreased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum cables remained flat. Before the Spring Festival, the demand for photovoltaic frames was strong, while other profile enterprises gradually took long holidays. Coupled with the relatively high aluminum prices, the downstream提货 willingness was general [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Aluminum prices experienced a significant surge followed by a decline. Shanghai aluminum rose 1.1% to 24,560 yuan/ton this week (as of the Friday afternoon close), while LME aluminum fell 1.2% to 3,135 US dollars/ton [23]. - Term Spread: After the aluminum price surge and decline, the near - month contract was relatively resistant to the decline, and the contango between the first - and third - month contracts narrowed [26]. - Spot Basis: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China widened compared to last week [29]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: The East China spot was relatively strong [34]. - LME Premium and Discount: The LME aluminum Cash/3M discount widened [37]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased compared to last week and was at a historical high [44]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: According to MYSTEEL data, the aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons compared to last Thursday. According to SMM statistics, the bonded area inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The total aluminum rod inventory was 253,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The LME global aluminum inventory was 494,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared to last week, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [49][52][55][58]. 3.4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: Domestic bauxite prices fluctuated and declined, while overseas bauxite prices remained stable month - on - month [61]. - Alumina Price: Domestic alumina prices continued to decline, while import prices stabilized [66]. 3.5. Supply Side - Alumina: In January 2026, the monthly alumina output decreased by 1.8% month - on - month compared to December 2025 and 2.6% year - on - year compared to January 2025. Routine maintenance at the beginning of the year caused a slight contraction in operating capacity. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to decline in February [76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.996 million tons. In January, the electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will remain relatively stable in February, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In December 2025, the overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 258,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, with an annual output increase of approximately 2.8% [79]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: This week, the aluminum rod processing fee first increased and then decreased. In January 2026, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume increased by 19.4% month - on - month and decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In the context of the off - season for downstream demand in February, the aluminum water ratio is expected to decrease by 7.7%. This week, the decline in the aluminum water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises slightly widened [82]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased month - on - month compared to November [87]. 3.6. Demand Side - Aluminum Product Output: In December 2025, China's aluminum product output was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The cumulative output from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. As of January 26, 2026, the daily aluminum ingot出库 volume was 133,000 tons, an increase compared to last week [91]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In December 2025, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased month - on - month. The operating rates of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 329 yuan/ton to 1,145 yuan/ton [97][100][103]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in February 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 1.149 million units, a 31.6% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 600,000 units, a 17% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 630,000 units, a 3.2% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year. In December 2025, the real estate data continued to be weak, the production and sales of automobiles weakened marginally, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules was strong [106]. 3.7. Import and Export - Primary Aluminum Import: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. This week, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports narrowed. In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., and the import volume from Russia increased to 76% [111][115]. - Aluminum Product Export: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [118]. - Recycled Aluminum Import: In December 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [118]. - Bauxite Import: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with an import ore proportion of 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% [121]. - Alumina Export: In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [121].

Group 1 - Aluminum prices have reached a historical high of 25,640 CNY/ton, reflecting a long-term revaluation of aluminum as a strategic resource, despite high inventory and weak demand before the Spring Festival [1][7] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Venezuela, have heightened supply chain vulnerabilities, impacting the pricing logic of industrial metals like aluminum [2] - The Middle East, especially Iran, poses a significant threat to aluminum supply due to its reliance on imported raw materials, with potential US tariffs increasing production costs and risking supply disruptions [2] Group 2 - The premium for aluminum in the European and American markets has surged, with the premium for shipments to Japan in Q1 2026 reaching 195 USD/ton, a 127% increase from Q4 2025 [3] - The financial market has shown a strong correlation between aluminum prices and stock performance, with significant gains in aluminum sector stocks indicating a bullish sentiment [4] - Despite the bullish market sentiment, the industrial fundamentals are weak, with a notable decline in production across major consumer sectors, leading to increased inventory levels [5] Group 3 - The copper-aluminum price ratio has provided a basis for aluminum price support, although the demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper is limited in the short term [6] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to stabilize the market and prevent excessive volatility, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange introducing risk control measures for aluminum trading [6] - Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 23,500 to 25,500 CNY/ton, with high volatility anticipated as the market adjusts to seasonal demand and regulatory impacts [7]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices reached a three-year high in the first half of the month, primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment and market reactions to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's decision slightly exceeded expectations, leading to a moderate increase in the aluminum market [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting in China released positive signals, providing robust support for commodities [1] - Strong performance in silver and copper has positively influenced aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Supply constraints in the northwest have limited shipments, resulting in a decrease in social inventory [1] - Demand shows differentiated performance across consumption areas, with overall trading exhibiting resilience [1] - The sentiment in the market has shifted, maintaining high spot aluminum prices despite seasonal pressures [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - As sentiment cools in the latter half of the month and seasonal factors exert pressure, aluminum prices are expected to adjust to a range of 21,000 to 21,500 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully completed a share placement to meet domestic and international project needs and debt repayment, which is expected to optimize its asset structure and quality in the future [1] Group 1: Share Placement and Fund Allocation - The company announced the completion of a share placement and subscription agreement, issuing a total of 400 million shares at a subscription price of HKD 29.20 per share, with expected net proceeds of approximately HKD 11.49 billion [1] - Of the proceeds, 60% (approximately HKD 6.894 billion) will be used for the development and enhancement of domestic and international projects, with significant capital expenditures planned for the next three months [1] - 30% (approximately HKD 3.447 billion) will be allocated for repaying existing debts to optimize the company's capital structure, with total debts due before June 30, 2026, amounting to approximately HKD 54 billion [1] - The remaining 10% (approximately HKD 1.149 billion) will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, including coal procurement and other raw materials [1] Group 2: Future Development and Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Hongqiao Holdings, has increased its stake in the company, purchasing 7.5 million shares at an average price of approximately HKD 30.54 per share, raising its ownership from 63.94% to 64.02% [2] - Following the share placement, Hongqiao Holdings' stake decreased to 59.82%, but after the subscription, it increased to 61.44%, indicating strong confidence in the company's future development [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - China Hongqiao's subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao, reported a 6% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters, totaling RMB 116.93 billion, with a 23% increase in net profit to RMB 19.37 billion [3] - The third quarter saw revenue of RMB 38.7 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 6.9 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by improved profitability in the electrolytic aluminum sector [3] - The average aluminum price in China has risen to RMB 21,407 per ton since Q4 2025, supported by tight global supply and increasing demand, which is expected to benefit the company [3][4] Group 4: New Project Contributions - The company’s West Simandou iron ore project has officially commenced production, with an expected output of 30 million tons in the first year and reaching full capacity in the second year, which is anticipated to enhance the company's performance [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum is expected to move within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The new US tariff policy has raised the tariff on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, which will take effect at 00:01 on June 4, Eastern Time. The Midwest US duty - paid aluminum premium has soared to 58 cents per pound (about $1,280 per ton), a 54% increase from last Friday, reaching the highest level since 2013 [1][2] - In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% month - on - month and 19.1% year - on - year. Some mines are undergoing environmental inspections, which may affect production [2] - As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan per ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [2] - The PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry in May was 49.8%, close to the boom - bust line but still in the contraction range. It decreased by 1.8 percentage points month - on - month and increased by 8.7% year - on - year, mainly due to the off - season and weak terminal demand [2] - As of June 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week [2] - Uncertainty at the mine end may increase price fluctuations. The inventory faces accumulation pressure in the off - season, and the short - term aluminum price is expected to adjust in a range [3]