1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc prices maintain a volatile pattern. Consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices. The consumption side may face a test in May, with a possible sequential weakening in consumption after May. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$36.93/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 15 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 15 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On May 8, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,245 yuan/ton, closed at 22,175 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 222,075 lots, an increase of 66,119 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 119,907 lots, an increase of 3,206 lots. The highest price reached 22,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,070 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 170,650 tons, a decrease of 750 tons from the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Trading has been lukewarm. Rising absolute prices have dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a slight decline in spot premiums. However, overall inventory is low and supply is tight, so spot premiums remain at a high level. [4] - **Cost**: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upside potential in the future. But it does not affect smelters' profitability, so TC is not the main concern for now. [4] - **Supply**: The expected output in May is slightly lower, but still shows a high year - on - year growth. There may also be a delay in maintenance, so the supply pressure persists. [4] - **Consumption**: This is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory supports zinc prices. Consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices. Consumption in May may face a test, and there may be a sequential weakening in consumption after May due to the approaching end of the export rush window and over - drafting. [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot Market**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$15.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,920 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 220 yuan/ton to 490 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 220 yuan/ton to 22,900 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 290 yuan/ton to 470 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,980 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 230 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Market**: On April 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,445 yuan/ton and closed at 22,515 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 155,488 lots, an increase of 22,142 lots, and the position was 105,798 lots, an increase of 41,317 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,355 yuan/ton and 22,595 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,300 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The change of the main contract led to a significant increase in the premium of the spot to the main contract, but the premium of the actual spot market transaction to the 05 contract declined [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the TC has not changed its upward trend so far, but the future upward space and amplitude are limited. Currently, with the high TC and price, the smelting enthusiasm is high, and the supply will continue to increase, which will limit the upward height of zinc prices. Consumption is relatively strong. The export market has not been affected by tariffs, and the year - on - year export growth rate is relatively fast. After the absolute price dropped, the downstream's enthusiasm for point - price procurement was high, the social inventory decreased significantly, the spot premium rose rapidly, and the low inventory provided favorable support for zinc prices, resulting in a range - bound trend of zinc prices [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread [5]