2025 年 11 月 21 日 策略研究 牛市第三年，时间重于空间 ——2026 年度策略展望 要点 长期牛市的基础 本轮牛市无论在时间还是空间之上，都仍然值得期待。牛市持续需要的不仅是流 动性的好转，历史来看，时间周期越长，市场与基本面的相关性就越高。因此在 我们展望长期牛市可能性的时候，基本面的稳健改善仍然是基础，政策往往提供 了预期改善的拐点，资金决定斜率与节奏。牛市至此，未来更需要关注基本面预 期的兑现。 盈利总量稳定，关注结构亮点 关注"十五五" 开局之年政策共振。政策方面，"十五五"规划建议为未来五 年的经济与产业发展提供了重要的政策基础。五年规划开局之年，市场通常都有 不错的表现，结构也将与政策增量方向相一致。此外，金融政策预计仍然整体处 于放松周期之中。 牛市第三年，时间重于空间 市场当前位置有望是长期牛市的起点。基本面的逐步好转与产业亮点仍然是市场 长期牛市的基础，居民资金的流入与"十五五"开局之年的政策支持将决定市场 的斜率与节奏。与往年全面牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是 在政府对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。 行业主线与切换可能 2026 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 0.73% lower, falling below 4000 points, but the current market is considered more stable compared to previous instances of reaching this level [1][3] - The market is supported by four driving forces: continuous policy benefits, improved international environment, positive funding conditions, and a booming technology industry cycle [5] Investor Sentiment - New investors, particularly from the "Z generation," are entering the market with a focus on technology and innovation sectors, reflecting a shift in investment styles [6][7] - Experienced investors are adopting a cautious approach, emphasizing risk awareness and diversified asset allocation to build a balanced investment portfolio [7][8] Valuation Insights - The current market PE ratio stands at 16.81, significantly lower than the 41 times during the first 4000-point peak in 2007 and 20 times in 2015, indicating a more attractive valuation for long-term investors [4][5] - The absence of excessive leverage in the current market compared to previous bull markets suggests a more sustainable upward trend [4][5] Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current bull market will depend on factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle, the influx of new capital into A-shares, and supportive policy measures [5] - Analysts predict that strong sectors may cool down while weaker sectors could experience short-term rebounds, but the overall upward trend is expected to continue [5][8] Asset Allocation Strategies - Emphasis on diversified asset allocation is crucial, combining equities, bonds, commodities, and other asset classes to mitigate risks and enhance returns [8][9] - A balanced investment strategy, such as the "barbell strategy," is recommended, focusing on both high-growth technology sectors and stable dividend-paying stocks [9]

Group 1: Core Views - The growth of the Chinese capital market is seen as a significant turning point, with the long-term bull market being recognized as a national will and officially included in macroeconomic regulation [1][2] - The long-term bull market requires a supportive economic fundamental and monetary liquidity environment, as well as a conducive regulatory and social perception environment [1][3] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals for the Bull Market - A bull market cannot be solely based on high GDP growth; it must also ensure that the growth translates into returns for investors [2][3] - The technological revolution, particularly in artificial intelligence, is expected to drive economic growth and support a long-term bull market, with significant investments needed to close the gap in computing power between China and the US [2][3] Group 3: Interaction Between Capital Market and Real Economy - A long-term bull market must interact positively with the real economy, enhancing valuations for innovative companies and facilitating the exit of sunset industries [3][4] Group 4: Monetary Liquidity Conditions - Continuous deflationary pressures necessitate a loose monetary policy, which will support the bull market and help combat deflation [4][5] - The improvement in monetary liquidity since the central economic work conference has been notable, with M1 growth indicating potential stock market performance [4][5] Group 5: Interest Rate Policies - Significant interest rate cuts can alleviate the financial burden on households, businesses, and the government, potentially leading to increased consumption and investment [5][6] - The current interest rate levels in China still have room for significant reductions, which could further stimulate the economy and the stock market [5][6] Group 6: Strategic Planning for Capital Market Development - A strategic vision is essential for the capital market to thrive during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a target for market capitalization to GDP ratio reaching international averages [7][8] - The shift in asset allocation from real estate to stocks and funds, along with the increase in long-term funds, could lead to substantial inflows into the stock market, significantly increasing market capitalization [7][8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the Chinese economy and its transition from a debt-driven growth model to a high-quality development model, emphasizing capital returns over mere scale expansion [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Transition**: China is shifting from relying on capital investment and low-cost expansion to focusing on high-quality development, which includes reducing output, increasing consumption, and improving trade deficits [1][3]. - **Asset Price Expansion**: The strategy involves driving consumption through asset price expansion rather than debt reliance, similar to the U.S. model of sustainable economic development through high profits [1][3][4]. - **Current Economic Cycle**: The economy is at the bottom of a super cycle, with low rates, economic cycles, and asset prices. A price recovery is expected to lead to rising interest rates and a long-term bull market [1][4][6]. - **Impact of Supply Constraints**: Supply constraints are expected to elevate corporate Return on Equity (ROE) levels, leading to increased free cash flow and asset price growth [1][4][5]. - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The current environment features low real interest rates and relatively high inflation, indicating monopolistic characteristics in output and excess profits, which are expected to drive consumer wage growth [7][8]. - **Future Interest Rate Trends**: The long-term interest rate center should not fall below the average levels from 2010 to 2019, with a ten-year government bond yield expected to be above 3% [2][9]. Additional Important Points - **Global Manufacturing Pricing**: As China exits the deflationary cycle associated with globalization, it will participate more in global manufacturing pricing, moving away from U.S. demand control [2][8]. - **Global Interest Rate Dynamics**: The relationship between the U.S. and China will significantly influence global interest rate trends, especially if inflation triggers occur in the U.S. [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that retail investors, who have been a significant driving force behind the recent highs in the U.S. stock market, are expected to slow down their buying activity in September but may resume later in the year [1][2][5] - Scott Rubner, a prominent strategist, has accurately predicted major market corrections in the past and suggests that the current surge in retail buying is structural rather than cyclical, reflecting consumer health and market participation [2][5] - Historical data indicates that after strong buying activity in June and July, retail investors typically reduce their buying in August, with September often marking a low point for retail participation [2][9] Group 2 - Retail investors have been net buyers in the U.S. stock market for 16 out of the past 18 weeks and have consistently been net buyers of stock options for 16 weeks, marking one of the longest bullish streaks since 2020 [1][5] - The focus of Wall Street has increasingly shifted towards retail investor behavior, as they have played a crucial role in the recovery of the S&P 500 index following significant sell-offs [5][9] - Retail investors are not just buying meme stocks but are also favoring large-cap stocks with solid fundamentals, such as Tesla, Nvidia, and UnitedHealth Group, indicating a more strategic approach to investing [8][9] Group 3 - Wall Street strategists are cautious about the short-term trends in the U.S. stock market, anticipating potential corrections but viewing them as temporary interruptions in a long-term bull market [10][11] - Major financial institutions like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index, reflecting a growing consensus on the long-term bullish outlook despite expected short-term volatility [11][12] - The anticipated corrections are seen as buying opportunities, particularly due to the strong earnings growth and capital expenditures in technology giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google [12]

Group 1 - Retail investors have been net buyers in the U.S. stock market for 16 out of the past 18 weeks, marking a significant trend in market participation [2] - Scott Rubner, a prominent strategist, predicts that the retail buying frenzy may slow down in September but could resume later in the year [1][2] - Historical data indicates that retail buying activity typically decreases in August and reaches a low point in September, before potentially rebounding in the fourth quarter [2] Group 2 - Retail investors have played a crucial role in driving the market, particularly in the context of "meme stocks" and broader market rallies [3] - Recent statistics show that retail investors accounted for approximately 20% of total options activity, surpassing levels seen during the meme stock frenzy in 2021 [5] - The current generation of retail investors is characterized by a lack of experience with bear markets, having only experienced prolonged bull markets [4] Group 3 - Wall Street strategists are increasingly cautious about the short-term trends in the U.S. stock market, anticipating potential corrections amid record high valuations [6] - Despite concerns, there is a consensus among strategists that any upcoming market corrections will be temporary and present buying opportunities [7] - Citigroup has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 6,300 to 6,600, reflecting a growing bullish sentiment among Wall Street analysts [8]