2025 年 11 月 21 日 策略研究 牛市第三年，时间重于空间 ——2026 年度策略展望 要点 长期牛市的基础 本轮牛市无论在时间还是空间之上，都仍然值得期待。牛市持续需要的不仅是流 动性的好转，历史来看，时间周期越长，市场与基本面的相关性就越高。因此在 我们展望长期牛市可能性的时候，基本面的稳健改善仍然是基础，政策往往提供 了预期改善的拐点，资金决定斜率与节奏。牛市至此，未来更需要关注基本面预 期的兑现。 盈利总量稳定，关注结构亮点 关注"十五五" 开局之年政策共振。政策方面，"十五五"规划建议为未来五 年的经济与产业发展提供了重要的政策基础。五年规划开局之年，市场通常都有 不错的表现，结构也将与政策增量方向相一致。此外，金融政策预计仍然整体处 于放松周期之中。 牛市第三年，时间重于空间 市场当前位置有望是长期牛市的起点。基本面的逐步好转与产业亮点仍然是市场 长期牛市的基础，居民资金的流入与"十五五"开局之年的政策支持将决定市场 的斜率与节奏。与往年全面牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是 在政府对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。 行业主线与切换可能 2026 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that during the PPI recovery phase, small-cap value stocks tend to outperform, with small-cap growth also showing potential for good performance [4][10][12] - Historical analysis shows that in previous PPI recovery phases, the market style favored small-cap value and small-cap growth stocks, particularly when liquidity remains loose [10][11] - The report highlights that the cyclical sector tends to outperform during PPI recovery phases, as its performance is closely tied to PPI movements and investment demand [12][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent market sentiment has shifted towards cyclical and consumer staples sectors, with increased attention on these indices [4][39] - In terms of industry preference, sectors such as electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials have seen significant net inflows, while sectors like electronics and non-ferrous metals experienced net outflows [47] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming years, particularly 2026, may witness a significant investment boost due to the alignment of China's five-year plans and the U.S. election cycle, potentially benefiting related sectors [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong rebound in the third quarter, leading to improved investor sentiment and profitability, with over 55% of surveyed investors reporting gains [6][7][24] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from below 3500 points to close at 3882.78 points by September 30, marking a cumulative increase of 12.73% for the quarter [7] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw even larger gains, increasing by 29.25% and 50.4% respectively [7] Investor Sentiment - 55% of investors reported profitability in Q3, an increase of 7 percentage points from Q2 and 13 percentage points from Q1 [7][8] - Over 70% of surveyed investors are optimistic about the A-share market in Q4, with many expecting the Shanghai Composite Index to reach around 3900 points [19][20] Asset Allocation Trends - The proportion of personal financial assets allocated to securities increased to 42.2%, up from 40.87% in Q1 [10] - 38% of investors increased their stock market investments in Q3, while 41% reduced their holdings [9] Sector Focus - The technology sector remains a focal point for investors, with nearly half expecting a style shift in Q4, while 30% believe technology stocks will continue to perform strongly [14][16][18] - The average holding in technology growth stocks rose to 26.64%, significantly higher than other sectors [15] Gold Investment - 67% of investors anticipate further increases in gold prices, with many viewing it as a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation [12] - The average gold price rose from $3300 to $3800 per ounce during the quarter [12] Hong Kong Market Interest - 24% of investors increased their Hong Kong stock investments in Q3, with a profitability rate of 40% [22] - Investors are optimistic about the long-term potential of the Hong Kong market, with many viewing it as a value opportunity [22][24]

Market Performance - On October 14, the A-share market experienced a correction, with the ChiNext index falling nearly 4% [1][2]. Analysis of Market Movements - The recent escalation of China-U.S. trade tensions has raised concerns about the stability of global supply chains and the foreign trade environment, particularly in areas such as shipping costs, rare earth controls, and tariff threats [2]. - Technical adjustment pressures within the market have also contributed to the volatility, as the A-share market has accumulated significant gains since the beginning of the year, prompting some profit-taking amid external disturbances [2]. - The complex and changing international geopolitical landscape, including uncertainties in the policy directions of major economies like France and Japan, has led to a cautious market sentiment [2]. Impact of Trade Tensions - The recent escalation in China-U.S. trade tensions has implications beyond traditional trade, with China's export controls on rare earths and related technologies targeting the core supply chains of the global high-tech industry [2]. - The U.S. has threatened higher tariffs, which exacerbates tensions in the global trade system, creating uncertainty and risk aversion in the market, particularly affecting industries reliant on China-U.S. trade and those closely tied to globalization in high-tech and manufacturing sectors [2]. Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in the A-share market may increase, but there is no need for excessive pessimism in the medium term [3]. - The evolution of China-U.S. relations, especially with key events like the upcoming APEC summit, will be critical observation points for the market [3]. - The market focus is expected to shift towards internal drivers, particularly the policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the certainty of third-quarter earnings [3]. - In terms of asset allocation, a balanced strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors that highlight strategic value and benefit from domestic industrial policy support, such as technology and new energy [3]. - Additionally, sectors with relatively low valuations and improving fundamentals may also present investment opportunities [3]. - Continuous monitoring of incremental capital movements and changes in the external environment is advised for flexible portfolio adjustments [3].