Core Viewpoint - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of listed banks in China remains at an excellent level in the first half of 2025, with most banks showing stable or improved asset quality, while some retail loan segments are experiencing increased pressure on asset quality [1][7]. Group 1: Non-Performing Loan Ratios - 20 out of 42 listed banks reported a decrease in NPL ratios compared to the beginning of the year, with declines ranging from 0.01 to 0.12 percentage points [2]. - 16 banks have NPL ratios below 1%, with Chengdu Bank having the lowest at 0.66% [2]. - Xi'an Bank saw the largest reduction in NPL ratio, decreasing by 0.12 percentage points to 1.6% by the end of June [2]. Group 2: Risk Management Trends - The risk management landscape is characterized by two main trends: ongoing risk clearance in real estate and local government financing platforms, and rising pressure on retail loans such as personal business and consumer loans [1][4]. - Agricultural Bank of China reported a 0.05 percentage point decrease in the NPL ratio for real estate loans by the end of June [4]. Group 3: Retail Loan Quality Concerns - Several banks, including Huaxia Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, have reported increases in personal loan NPL ratios compared to the beginning of the year [7]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China acknowledged a general decline in retail loan asset quality due to market conditions, but expects improvements as economic policies take effect [7][8]. - Challenges in retail banking are attributed to consumption downgrades and adjustments in the real estate market, impacting credit card transactions and personal loans [7].

Core Insights - The retail business has become a focal point for banks, with significant growth reported by the six major banks, while smaller banks show weaker performance in personal loans [1][4][5] - There is a divergence in opinions among banks regarding the risk trends in retail loans, with some believing the peak of bad loans has passed, while others see ongoing risk increases [1][2][7] Retail Business Performance - The six major banks have shown strong growth in retail business, with notable increases in personal consumption and operating loans, capturing a significant market share [1][4] - Specific growth figures include: - China Construction Bank's personal operating loans increased by 20.38% - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s personal consumption loans grew by 10.2% - Agricultural Bank of China’s personal operating loans rose by 17.2% [4] Divergence Among Banks - Smaller banks, including joint-stock and city commercial banks, have experienced sluggish growth in personal loans, with some reporting negative growth [1][5][6] - For instance, Ping An Bank's personal loan total decreased by 2.3%, while China Everbright Bank's retail loan growth was only 1.57% [5] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The introduction of consumption loan subsidies is expected to create more variables in the retail market for the fourth quarter and next year [3] - Smaller banks are under pressure from larger banks and are focusing on improving their retail loan offerings, particularly in housing and consumption loans [3][8] Strategies for Growth - Major banks are expected to continue focusing on personal consumption and operating loans, leveraging central policies to support growth [8][9] - Smaller banks are looking to enhance their loan offerings by collaborating with local enterprises and improving loan approval processes to compete with larger banks [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector is characterized by "stable total, optimized structure, and regional differentiation" amid insufficient effective credit demand and narrowing net interest margins. Despite challenges, some regional banks have achieved double-digit loan growth, primarily driven by corporate loans, while asset quality remains a concern, particularly in retail loans [2][6][9]. Group 1: Loan Growth and Structure - In the first half of the year, 9 banks, all city commercial banks, achieved loan growth exceeding 10%, with notable performances from Xi'an Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chengdu Bank [4][5]. - Overall, listed banks' loan total increased by 7.98% year-on-year, with corporate loans contributing 84.6% of the increment, indicating a strong reliance on corporate lending for credit expansion [6][7]. - The growth in loans is concentrated in regions with active economies, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, with Sichuan leading at an 11.8% growth rate [6][7]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin and Profitability - The banking sector's overall net interest margin was 1.39%, down 13 basis points year-on-year, with state-owned banks experiencing the largest decline [7][8]. - Six major banks saw a 2% year-on-year decline in net interest income, with only the Bank of Communications reporting positive growth [7][8]. - City commercial banks like Xi'an, Nanjing, Jiangsu, and Ningbo managed to achieve over 10% growth in net interest income due to a combination of rapid growth and resilient margins [7][8]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Risks - The overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks remained stable at 1.23%, with corporate loan NPL ratios improving, while retail loan risks, particularly in personal operating loans and mortgages, have increased [9][10]. - City commercial banks reported the lowest corporate NPL ratio at 0.76%, while state-owned banks had the highest at 1.35% [9][10]. - The rise in retail loan NPLs is attributed to declining real estate prices affecting collateral values, leading to increased risk exposure [10]. Group 4: Capital Adequacy and Future Outlook - Some banks, particularly in the shareholding sector, face capital adequacy pressures, with certain banks nearing the regulatory minimum for core Tier 1 capital [11]. - Future projections indicate a potential further narrowing of net interest margins by 5 to 10 basis points, but quality regional banks are expected to benefit from financing demands in infrastructure, manufacturing, and green transitions [11].

| | 2024年12月31日 | | 2023年12月31日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 占总额 | | 占总额 | | (人民币百万元,百分比除外) | 金额 | 百分比% | 金额 | 自分比% | | 正常类贷款 | 6,733,625 | 97.76 | 6,375,958 | 97.95 | | 关注类贷款 | 89,080 | 1.29 | 71,328 | 1.10 | | 次级类贷款 | 16,872 | 0.25 | 16,576 | 0.26 | | 可疑类贷款 | 23,054 | 0.33 | 21,554 | 0.33 | | 损失类贷款 | 25,684 | 0.37 | 23,449 | 0.36 | | 贷款和垫款总额 | 6,888,315 | 100.00 | 6,508,865 | 100.00 | | 不良贷款 | 65,610 | 0.95 | 61,579 | 0.95 | 数据显示，2024年招商银行净利润为1483.91亿元，同比增长1.22%； 营业收入3374.88亿元， 同比下降0.48%； 总资产 ...