1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract slightly declined, with a weekly decline of about 0.33%. The global supply surplus expectation continues to ferment, and the raw sugar price continues to decline. Although the external sugar price hits new lows, before the import license is issued, the actual import is expected to be limited in the short term, and the correlation between domestic and foreign markets weakens. Domestic market sentiment is relatively cautious approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and the spot price remains stable. Pay attention to position risks as the holiday approaches [5]. - Future factors to watch include domestic imports and demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract slightly declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.33% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: As of the week of February 11, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 53 from 49 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded increased by 16.98% to 1.83 million tons from 1.5644 million tons in the previous week. The global supply surplus expectation continues to ferment, and the raw sugar price continues to decline. Before the import license is issued, the actual import is expected to be limited in the short term, and the correlation between domestic and foreign markets weakens. Domestic market sentiment is relatively cautious approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and the spot price remains stable [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar May contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.53%. As of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 210,289 lots, an increase of 42,536 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 154,357 lots, an increase of 935 lots from the previous week, and short positions were 364,646 lots, an increase of 43,470 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 13.97 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.01 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract slightly declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.33%. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of sugar was - 61,353 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 14,461 [18][25]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 11 yuan per ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 139 yuan per ton [29]. - **Spot Market**: As of February 13, the white sugar quotation in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,350 yuan per ton, and the sugar quotation in Nanning was 5,330 yuan per ton [35]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,431 yuan per ton, an increase of 128 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 285 yuan per ton, an increase of 179 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,286 yuan per ton, an increase of 151 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 226 yuan per ton, an increase of 187 yuan per ton from last week [41]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: The supply side is mainly characterized by increased production. In December 2025, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 316.67% and a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 950% [50]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: No specific data analysis of industrial inventory is provided in the text, only the chart is mentioned [46]. - **Demand Side - Sales Rate**: The sales rate of sugar is average. In December 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 3.5904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 13.4214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [61]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Options Market**: The text only mentions the implied volatility chart of at - the - money options of sugar this week, without specific data [62]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: The text only provides the chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry, without specific data analysis [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market in the 25/26 sugar season has shifted from a shortage to a surplus. India's significant increase in production contrasts with the decline in Thailand and Brazil, but overall supply - side pressure remains [4]. - There is a contradiction between the firm domestic spot price and the weak futures price. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand provides short - term support to the price. With production cost support, there may be some short - term upward space, but the upside is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Spot Price and Futures Price - On February 9, 2026, the spot prices in different regions varied. For example, the price in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5360 yuan, in Rizhao, Shandong was 5415 yuan, in Langfang, Hebei was 5470 yuan, etc. Some prices remained unchanged, while the price in Langfang decreased by 40 yuan [4]. - The futures prices of SR05 and SR09 on February 9, 2026 were 5261 yuan and 5274 yuan respectively, with increases of 33 and 35 yuan [4]. International Data - The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.952, a decrease of 0.0069. The Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, an increase of 0.0212. The Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, a decrease of 0.0004 [4]. - The ice raw sugar main contract price was 14.14, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract price was 573, an increase of 3; the Brent crude oil main contract price was 68.1, unchanged [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - cane harvest in February and the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. In China, as the supply of imported sugar decreases and sugar prices reach a low level, the downward space in the short - term is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at a high level due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market. In the long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new season and the positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives up the price of US soybeans. For China, although the long - term supply pressure increases, the import cost rises as the price of US soybeans goes up. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - For oils and fats, driven by biodiesel policies in various countries, the increase in consumption of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate, so the medium - term outlook for oil prices is positive. In the short - term, due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, oil prices fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [17]. - For eggs, during the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, with weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may still need to squeeze out the premium. For the far - end, the logic of capacity reduction will be re - traded after the spot price turns down, but the implementation path is still uncertain [19]. - For pigs, the large basic supply and the current accumulation of live - pig inventory make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. The near - term prices are still under pressure, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. For the long - term, although the reduction in production capacity has been revised down, there are still expectations of a high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand. Pay attention to the support at lower levels after the price follows the decline [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,228 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. The quoted price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,270 - 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of February 4, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons in the previous week. StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons; the sugar sales in December were 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales in the 2025/26 season were 1.57 million tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to rebound after the negative factors are digested, and stay on the sidelines for now [5]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,025 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, down 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons; of which, the exports to China were 8,800 tons in that week, and the cumulative exports to China were 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. In January, the USDA predicted that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous season. The predicted US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast, with the export forecast unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's total cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Focus on low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival, as there is room for price increase in the long - term [9]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,735 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. StoneX's latest forecast shows that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,026 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,144 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,650 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month, exports were 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on biofuel tax credits, which was well - received by the market. The shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively from the previous month. From January 23 to January 30, the inventory of the three major oils and fats in domestic samples decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Go long after a pullback as the medium - term outlook is positive [17]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with slight weakness in some areas. Before the Spring Festival, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was not reported, the price in Xinji dropped 0.09 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.07 yuan to 2.89 yuan/jin, the price in Xishui remained at 3.38 yuan/jin, and the price in Dongguan dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.23 yuan/jin. Market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. Considering the limited decrease in supply and the inventory accumulation during the festival, egg prices may fall below the cost after the festival [18]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - month contract and be cautious about the far - end contract [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.14 yuan to 12.14 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.4 yuan to 11.14 yuan/kg. The improvement in demand was limited, and the enthusiasm of farmers for selling pigs was high. The overall supply was abundant, and pig prices were under pressure. It is expected that pig prices in the north may be stronger and stable in the south today [21]. - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the near - term and pay attention to the support at lower levels in the long - term [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing season in February. The downward space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates widely at a high level. In the long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [6][9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/25. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12][13]. - For oils, in the short - term, oil prices have fallen from high levels. In the long - term, the bottom of oil prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then try to go long [15][19]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to realize seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contracts may fluctuate weakly, and the far - end contracts may continue to correct their valuations, maintaining a short - selling idea [20][21]. - For pigs, the current supply is large, and the spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term contracts may still be under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The long - term contracts may have support after following the decline [23][24]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 0.83% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5260 - 5340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 1.57 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. Among them, the export to China was 8800 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2623 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2247 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [11]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export was 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [12]. Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8140 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 9138 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9243 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,040 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample data showed that the inventory of the three major oils decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons. The January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [16][18]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China declined, and a few remained stable. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.07 yuan to 3.56 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.24 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the market digestion was gentle, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that most egg prices in China may decline in the short - term, and a few areas may remain stable [20]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally declined with a large margin. The average price in Henan dropped 0.32 yuan to 12.22 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.09 yuan to 11.77 yuan/kg. The trading volume of the breeding side was limited, most of them did not complete the daily slaughter plan, and the price - cutting sentiment was strong. In addition, the incremental space of the downstream slaughter side was limited. It is expected that pig prices may continue to decline today [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International aspect: NFCSF estimates that India's total new - sugar production will be 35 million tons in the new season, with 3.5 million tons used for ethanol production. Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest, and the supply is in a loose pattern. The previous negative factors have been fully priced in, and the raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents per pound for some time [4]. - Domestic aspect: With the listing of new sugar in Guangxi, the market price is mainly based on the previously pre - sold basis sugar sources, with prices significantly lower than old sugar, leading to a weakening of futures prices. The futures price remains weak, and the basis sugar price drops, creating a weak market sentiment. Traders are more likely to wait and see, and procurement is mainly based on demand. The market is expected to remain in a weak and fluctuating pattern next week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - ICE raw sugar futures: The weakening of the Brazilian real put pressure on raw sugar prices. As the Brazilian harvest season is ending and the northern hemisphere's pressing progress is accelerating, the supply outlook of major producing countries in the 25/26 season is good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest has put pressure on sugar prices. The expected increase in the supply surplus and the weakening of energy prices, along with good weather in major producing areas, also affected the price [11]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures: The strong trend of raw sugar and lower - than - expected sugar production in Guangxi initially supported the price. Later, the loose overseas supply outlook in the 25/26 season led to a decline in raw sugar prices, increasing the expectation of domestic imports. After that, raw sugar stopped falling and stabilized, domestic negative factors were digested, and the overall bulk commodity atmosphere was strong. Finally, the weak trend of raw sugar and the suppression of beet warrants led to a price decline. The price approaching the sugar - making cost, lower - than - expected domestic sugar production increase, and faster clearance of old sugar stocks also influenced the price [14]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Analysis - **Brazil**: - In the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons (0.3%). The ATR of sugarcane was 158.78 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.54 kg/ton. Ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 240 million liters (1.17%). Sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (1.25%). The cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 318,000 tons (0.89%) [22]. - The sugar - making ratio in the first half of October was 48.24%, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 52.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.84%. The current price of hydrous ethanol in the central - southern region of Brazil converted to sugar is 16.5 cents per pound, and the spot price of raw sugar is 14.8 cents per pound, with the price difference between sugar and ethanol narrowing [27]. - As of the week of November 12, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 69, down from 81 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.6571 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 402,700 tons (13.16%), including 2.3995 million tons of high - grade raw sugar (VHP). Brazil exported 1.5582 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 155,800 tons, a 13% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 178,400 tons in November last year [33]. - **India**: The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates that the net sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season will be 30.95 million tons. The total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) is expected to be 34.35 million tons, and after deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to reach 30.95 million tons [40]. - **Thailand**: In 2024, the price of sugarcane remained high, while the price of cassava was at a multi - year low, which may lead more cassava growers to switch to sugarcane cultivation. In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area in Thailand is expected to expand by about 3%. Institutions estimate that the sugarcane harvest in Thailand in the 2025/26 season will be about 105 - 110 million tons, a 14% - 19% increase compared to last year's 92.2 million tons. The remaining increase in production comes from the improvement of yield. With better rainfall in 2025 compared to 2024, Thailand's sugar production is expected to reach about 11.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10% [48]. - **Domestic situation**: - As of the end of September 2025, the total sugar production in the current sugar - making season in China was 11.162 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons (12%), including 9.597 million tons of cane sugar and 1.565 million tons of beet sugar. The cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 870,000 tons (9.1%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%. Among them, 8.94 million tons of cane sugar were sold, with a sales rate of 93.1%, and 1.54 million tons of beet sugar were sold, with a sales rate of 98.4% [53]. - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 473,700 tons (13.8%) [86]. - In the period from November 13 to November 20, the price in the Guangxi production area was maintained in the range of 5,430 - 5,500 yuan/ton, the price in the Yunnan production area was maintained in the range of 5,400 - 5,590 yuan/ton, the port price was about 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of processed sugar was about 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market Quotes: SR601 closed at 5485 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position of 431,349 contracts, a decrease of 7,657 contracts; SR605 closed at 5454 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 64,361 contracts, an increase of 388 contracts; ICE US Sugar 11 Oct closed at 15.60 cents/pound, down 0.06 cents or 0.38%, with a position of 78,572 contracts, a decrease of 19,602 contracts; ICE US Sugar 11 Mar closed at 16.12 cents/pound, down 0.03 cents or 0.19%, with a position of 465,280 contracts, an increase of 3,310 contracts [7] - Market Trends: On Wednesday, the New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The London ICE white sugar futures' December contract closed down 0.9% to $458.70 per ton. The fundamentals of the sugar market have not changed much in the short term. The recent rebound in crude oil prices has slightly supported sugar prices. The raw sugar price is at a low level, and it is difficult to continue to decline, but there is also a lack of clear upward drivers. Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures rose first and then fell. The 01 contract closed at 5485 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a reduction of 7,657 contracts. The spot prices in domestic producing areas remained unchanged. The price of Nanning sugar was 5860 yuan, and the price of Kunming sugar was 5720 yuan. Today, the night session of Zhengzhou sugar futures rose sharply, and the day session fell sharply. The main reason is that the market confirmed that Typhoon "Hagupit" had little impact on the main sugarcane areas in Guangxi and did not cause natural disasters, so the bullish sentiment dissipated. After the market, it is worth noting that the speculative short positions remained unchanged and the positions were large [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Global Sugar Supply and Demand: Broker and analysis firm StoneX said in a report on Tuesday that the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season starting in October. Global sugar production is estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 194.7 million tons. StoneX said that improved crop harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand will be sufficient to offset the expected decline in production in Europe. Earlier on Tuesday, the broker released a detailed forecast for Brazil's new crushing season, expecting an increase in sugar production in Brazil due to the expected return to normal weather conditions and an increase in newly planted sugarcane [11] - Brazilian Sugar Export: Brazilian shipping agency Williams released data showing that as of the week ending September 24, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons in the previous week. Among the total sugar waiting to be exported in the week, the quantity of high-grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.8642 million tons. According to Williams' data, the quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port was 2.1394 million tons, and the quantity at Paranagua Port was 0.5647 million tons [11] - China's Dairy and Beverage Production: Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's dairy product output in August 2025 was 2.555 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative dairy product output was 19.134 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. In addition, China's beverage output in August 2025 was 17.758 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative beverage output was 128.761 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [11] Group 4: Data Overview - Trading Volume and Position of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The report provides the trading volume, long position, and short position data of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, including the changes in these data [22] - Other Data Charts: The report also includes charts of spot price trends, basis, spreads, Brazilian raw sugar import profits, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, etc. [13][15][19]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, September 24, 2025 [1][2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closed at 5,478, up 45 (0.83%), with a trading volume of 666 (up 107) and an open interest of 2,422 (up 131) [5] - SR01: Closed at 5,497, up 53 (0.97%), with a trading volume of 287,568 (up 65,357) and an open interest of 439,006 (down 35,005) [5] - SR05: Closed at 5,464, up 53 (0.98%), with a trading volume of 21,828 (down 1,603) and an open interest of 63,973 (down 1,542) [5] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou at 5,890, Kunming at 5,905, Wuhan at 6,080, Nanning at 5,780, Bayuquan at 6,015, Rizhao at 5,900, and Xi'an at 6,270, with no change [5] - Basis: Liuzhou at 393, Kunming at 408, Wuhan at 583, Nanning at 283, Bayuquan at 518, Rizhao at 403, and Xi'an at 773 [5] Inter - month Spreads - SR5 - SR01 spread at - 33 (no change), SR09 - SR5 spread at 14 (down 8), SR09 - SR01 spread at - 19 (down 8) [5] Import Profits - Brazilian imports: ICE主力 at 16.16, premium at 0.06, freight at 41.50, in - quota price at 4,440, out - of - quota price at 5,655, spread with Liuzhou at 235, spread with Rizhao at 245, and spread with the futures market at - 158 [5] - Thai imports: ICE主力 at 16.16, premium at 0.89, freight at 18.00, in - quota price at 4,399, out - of - quota price at 5,600, spread with Liuzhou at 290, spread with Rizhao at 300, and spread with the futures market at - 103 [5] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - StoneX predicts Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production in 2026/27 to reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% year - on - year increase, and cane crushing volume to reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% increase [7] - The global sugar market in 2025/26 is expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons, with estimated production of 197.5 million tons and consumption of 194.7 million tons [7] - Thailand's sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.4 million tons, compared to 10 million tons in 2024/25; India's is expected to be 32.3 million tons, compared to 26.1 million tons in 2024/25 [7] - Inner Mongolia Hefeng Agriculture started sugar - beet processing, expecting to process 680,000 tons; Xinjiang Luxiang Sugar Industry's 2025/2026 production season officially began [8][10] - Super - typhoon Huajiacha brought wind and rain to eastern and coastal Guangxi, with different levels of precipitation and wind in different periods [9] Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is at its supply peak, and global inventories are accumulating. The latest data shows a high sugar - making ratio and increased sugar production in Brazil, which has a negative impact on prices, but low - price sugar has strong support [11] - Domestically, China's sugar imports in August remained high, domestic sugar inventories are low, and the sales - to - production ratio is high. The domestic market is affected by international sugar prices. Low prices and low domestic inventories make it difficult for Zhengzhou sugar prices to fall further. The typhoon in Guangdong and Guangxi may support Zhengzhou sugar prices [11] Trading Strategies - Single - side: International sugar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to international sugar rebound and weather effects [12] - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading [13] - Options: Hold off on trading [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventories, production - sales ratios, Liuzhou's sugar spot price, price spreads between regions and contracts, and basis of different contract months [17][18][22][26][27][29]