本报讯 （记者矫月）2026年1月7日，毛戈平化妆品股份有限公司（以下简称"毛戈平"）自愿公告披露，该公司已与全球领 先的消费投资机构路威凯腾（L Catterton）签署战略合作框架协议，双方将在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构优 化、人才引进与治理四大领域深度协作，为品牌全球化布局注入重磅动能。 （编辑 黄力） 品牌建设层面，毛戈平持续深化东方美学差异化定位。三大重磅营销事件接连破圈："一带一路"主题"荒野之花"活动将东 方美妆与丝路文化深度绑定；上海豫园九曲桥"以梦为马 万象生辉"主题走秀，实现园林雅致与美妆艺术的沉浸式融合；以"马 踏飞燕+山海经"为灵感的限定皮影礼盒，创新性融合非遗元素与美妆产品，上市后迅速成为爆款，实现文化价值与市场价值双 赢。 2025年，毛戈平在香港海港城落地首家直营旗舰店，最新数据显示，2025年12月份该店经营数据持续攀升，人流量、客单 价及复购等指标表现优于预期。未来，毛戈平有望以香港为支点，进一步辐射东南亚及更广阔的海外市场。 此次合作的路威凯腾实力雄厚，作为全球领先的消费投资机构，其管理约390亿美元股权资本，在全球18个办公室部署200 余名投资与运营专家，自 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on emotional consumption and innovative product offerings, particularly in the jewelry and cosmetics sectors [6][33] - Companies like潮宏基 and毛戈平 are leveraging multi-channel strategies to enhance brand visibility and product sales, indicating a strong market presence [26][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index closed at 2462.73 points, with a weekly increase of 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.88% [5][15] - The retail sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 10.00%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 18.26% rise [15][19] Company Highlights - **潮宏基**: Achieved a revenue of 62.37 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 28.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% increase [42] - **毛戈平**: Launched the "琉光赋活" skincare series, set to debut on January 1, 2026, focusing on high-end skincare needs [31] - **周大福**: Reported a revenue of 389.86 billion HKD for FY2026H1, a slight decrease of 1.1%, but with a net profit increase of 0.1% [39] Investment Themes - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending潮宏基 and老铺黄金 as key players [6][33] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasis on companies adapting to market changes, with recommendations for永辉超市 and爱婴室 [6][33] - **Cosmetics**: Highlighting brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending毛戈平 and珀莱雅 [6][34] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Targeting differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical aesthetic chains, with recommendations for爱美客 and科笛-B [6][34]

Core Insights - The Chinese fragrance market is experiencing significant growth, with a market size of 20.7 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, and is expected to reach 51.5 billion yuan by 2029 [1] - The rise of the fragrance market is driven by the "olfactory economy," which enhances consumer personalization and stimulates consumption potential [1] - Various companies, including listed firms, are rapidly entering the fragrance sector, indicating strong market interest and potential profitability [1] Company Developments - Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. launched two fragrance series, "Guoyun Ningxiang" and "Wendao Dongfang," achieving sales of over 35,000 units and generating revenue of 11.41 million yuan with a gross margin of 77.6% [1] - Shanghai Shangmei Cosmetics Co., Ltd. is also expanding its fragrance offerings, with its brand "Hanshu" set to release the "Hongyun" fragrance series by the end of this year [1] Market Trends - Cross-industry players are entering the fragrance market, such as Songmont collaborating with perfumer Yili and ERDOS partnering with fragrance brand Wenxian to launch new products [2] - The unique commercial value of fragrance products, including high added value and strong brand loyalty, is attracting companies to diversify their revenue streams [2] - Domestic fragrance brands are establishing a competitive edge by focusing on "Oriental aesthetics," differentiating themselves from foreign brands [2] Global Expansion - Domestic fragrance brands are accelerating their global presence, with Guansha opening its first store in Hong Kong and Melt Season launching a store at Tokyo Narita International Airport [3] - The focus on "Oriental aesthetics" allows domestic brands to showcase Chinese culture while competing with international brands [3] Challenges and Opportunities - Domestic fragrance brands face challenges in fragrance formulation and raw material sourcing, necessitating investment in high-end fragrance raw materials and supply chain development [3] - Enhancing brand visibility and market share can improve domestic brands' negotiating power with international suppliers, contributing to the stability and autonomy of their supply chains [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huogeping (01318) is projected to achieve significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with a "buy" investment rating maintained by Huaxin Securities [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Huogeping reported revenue of 2.588 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 670 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1% [1] - The company's gross margin stood at 84.2%, while the net margin was 25.9%, indicating strong profitability [1] Business Segments - The main growth drivers for Huogeping are the makeup and skincare segments, with makeup revenue reaching 1.422 billion RMB, up 31.1% year-on-year [1] - Skincare revenue was 1.087 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.4% [1] - Huogeping has also expanded into the fragrance category, launching two high-end perfume series, generating revenue of 11.413 million RMB [1] Strategic Decisions - The decline in revenue from the makeup artistry training business is a strategic decision aimed at improving service quality by controlling enrollment size [1] - Overall, Huogeping's performance in the first half of the year demonstrates its strong competitive position in the high-end beauty market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxin Securities predicts that Mao Geping (01318) will achieve revenues of 50.83 billion, 64.98 billion, and 82.45 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.36, 3.00, and 3.81 RMB, maintaining a "Buy" investment rating [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mao Geping reported operating revenue of 25.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 6.70 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1% [1] - The company's gross margin stood at 84.2%, while the net profit margin was 25.9%, indicating strong profitability [1] Business Segments - The main growth drivers for the company are the makeup and skincare segments, with makeup revenue reaching 14.22 billion RMB, up 31.1% year-on-year, and skincare revenue at 10.87 billion RMB, increasing by 33.4% [1] - Mao Geping has also expanded into the fragrance category, launching two high-end perfume series, "Guoyun Ningxiang" and "Wendao Dongfang," generating revenue of 11.41 million RMB [1] - Although revenue from the makeup artistry training business has declined, the company stated this was a strategic decision to enhance service quality by controlling enrollment size [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8]. Core Insights - The beauty industry is experiencing significant export trends, with the company, 毛戈平, making substantial progress in its global layout [1]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.588 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670 million RMB, up 36.1% year-on-year [6]. - 毛戈平 plans to enter Hong Kong's Harbour City in October 2025, enhancing its high-end offline global presence [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese cosmetics industry is witnessing a strong trend towards internationalization, with a total export value of 18.71 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.97% [4]. - Southeast Asia is a key market for Chinese beauty brands, projected to reach a market size of 34.55 billion USD by 2027, growing at an annual rate of 3.57% [4]. Company Developments - 毛戈平's offline sales in the first half of 2025 grew approximately 18%, significantly outperforming the industry average [5]. - The company has established 378 self-operated counters and 31 dealer counters across 120 cities in China, employing over 2,800 professional beauty consultants [5]. Financial Performance - 毛戈平's gross margin stands at 84.2%, with a net margin of 25.9%, indicating strong profitability [6]. - The company forecasts revenues of 5.083 billion RMB, 6.498 billion RMB, and 8.245 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.36, 3.00, and 3.81 RMB [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, aligning with previous forecasts, driven by robust sales in the cosmetics and skincare segments [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was also 670 million yuan, reflecting a 32.0% year-on-year growth [1] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 84.2%, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Business Segments - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025 showed cosmetics at 1.42 billion yuan, skincare at 1.01 billion yuan, fragrance at 10 million yuan, and makeup training and sales at 70 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +31.1% and +33.4% for cosmetics and skincare [1] - The gross margins for cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and makeup training were 82.7%, 87.5%, 77.6%, and 62.9%, with declines in cosmetics and skincare margins of 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [1] Channel Performance - Online and offline channels generated revenues of 1.30 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +39.0% and +26.6% [2] - Online sales accounted for 51.4% of total revenue, while offline sales made up 48.6% [2] - Membership numbers reached 13.4 million online and 5.6 million offline, with online and offline repurchase rates of 24.1% and 30.3%, reflecting increases of 2.6 and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Development - The company launched new products in the cosmetics and skincare segments, with flagship items generating significant sales, including over 200 million yuan for luxury caviar cushion and soft-focus powder [3] - The newly introduced fragrance series "Guo Yun Ning Xiang" and "Wen Dao Dong Fang" expanded the product portfolio [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is recognized as a rare high-end beauty brand in China, with an upgraded profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.20 billion, 1.52 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +36.6%, +26.7%, and +25.2% [3] - The latest closing price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35, 28, and 22 for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant growth in revenue and profit in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year [7] - The product matrix has been upgraded, leading to strong sales growth in both makeup and skincare segments, with makeup and skincare revenues growing by 31.1% and 33.4% respectively [7] - The company is recognized as a rare high-end beauty brand in China, with a unique beauty academy model and a professional makeup artist team enhancing the offline experience [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2,886 million, 3,885 million, 5,151 million, 6,523 million, and 8,161 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.78%, 34.61%, 32.60%, 26.63%, and 25.12% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 661.93 million, 880.61 million, 1,202.82 million, 1,523.81 million, and 1,908.32 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.00%, 33.04%, 36.59%, 26.69%, and 25.23% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 2.45 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.88, 27.53, and 21.98 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.5882 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3% [1] - The net profit for the same period was RMB 670.4 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The sales revenue from color cosmetics reached RMB 1.4223 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1% [1] - The sales revenue from skincare products amounted to RMB 1.0872 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.4% [1] Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company launched two new high-end perfume series, "Guoyun Ningxiang" and "Wendao Dongfang," expanding its product offerings into the fragrance market [1] - The new series emphasizes the company's philosophy of Eastern aesthetics, utilizing high-quality raw materials and craftsmanship [1] Brand Presence and Customer Engagement - As of June 30, 2025, the company has established brand counters in over 120 cities across China, including 405 self-operated counters and 32 distributor counters [2] - The company employs over 3,100 beauty consultants at its counters, making it one of the largest service teams among domestic and international beauty brands in China [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the high-end domestic cosmetics brand Mao Geping, projecting a net profit of 1.184 billion, 1.542 billion, and 1.953 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +34%, +30%, and +27% respectively [15]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector underperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index growing by only 0.1% from August 8 to August 15, 2025, lagging behind the Shenwan A Index by 3.0 percentage points [6][7]. - Domestic brands are actively preparing for the upcoming consumption peak, with significant announcements from brands like Proya and Up Beauty, indicating a strategic focus on high-end markets [12]. - Mao Geping's performance in H1 2025 shows a strong revenue forecast of 2.57 billion to 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%, and a net profit of 665 million to 675 million yuan, indicating robust profitability in the high-end domestic makeup segment [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector's performance was weaker than the overall market, with specific indices showing minimal growth [6][7]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Baiya Co. (+11.0%) and Nuobang Co. (+6.0%), while the worst performers were Beijia Co. (-13.1%) and Mao Geping (-9.4%) [8]. Recent Developments - The report highlights the upcoming earnings season for key domestic brands, with expectations for significant financial disclosures from companies like Runben Co. and Marubi Biological [12]. - New Oxygen Group reported a Q2 revenue of 379 million yuan, with its light medical beauty chain business showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 426% [24][25]. E-commerce and Market Trends - The report provides insights into the e-commerce performance of domestic brands, with notable growth in GMV for brands like Proya and Up Beauty, indicating a strong online presence [18]. - The retail sales of cosmetics in July 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, suggesting a recovery in consumer spending [19][22]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - The domestic cosmetics market is becoming increasingly competitive, with local brands gaining market share against international competitors, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Proya and Natural Hall [31][36]. - The report notes that the market for skincare products is projected to reach 271.2 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in growth [31].