高端国货美妆

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华创证券:维持毛戈平(01318)“强推”评级 目标价124.4港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:29
业务拆分:渠道口径,收入=47%线下+50%线上 1)线下:收入12.2亿(+27%),毛利率85.7%:其中百货专柜直销收入10.9亿(+25%),毛利率87.3%;线下经 销商收入0.5亿(+28%),毛利率76.8%(+2pp);高端跨国美妆零售商收入0.8亿(+54%),毛利率68.2% (+1pp);2)线上:收入12.97亿(+39%),毛利率83.9%。其中线上直销收入10.2亿(+39%),毛利率84.1%;线 上经销商收入2.7亿(+39%),毛利率83.1%。 事项:业绩一览 25H1收入同比+31.3%、净利润同比+36.1%,业绩表现亮眼。毛戈平25H1实现收入25.9亿(+31.3%),归 母净利润6.7亿(+36.1%),经调净利润6.7亿,符合市场预期。 盈利能力:销售费用率优化,盈利能力稳健 25H1公司毛利率为84.2%(-0.7pp),净利率25.9%(+0.9pp),保持相对稳定;销售/管理费用率分别 45.2%/5.3%(-2.4pp/-1.5pp)。尽管为提升品牌曝光度,销售及分销开支同比增加至11.7亿元,其中营销及 推广开支提升至5.4亿元,但得益于规模效应和运营 ...
毛戈平(01318.HK):2025H1业绩亮眼 高端国货美妆势能持续向上
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-30 19:04
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth exceeding 30%, aligning with expectations, and demonstrating sustained momentum in high-end brand positioning [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue reached 2.588 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [1] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.179 billion, 1.536 billion, and 1.939 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.41, 3.13, and 3.95 yuan [1] Group 2: Business Segmentation - In H1 2025, the makeup, skincare, and makeup art training segments generated revenues of 1.422 billion, 1.087 billion, and 67 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.1%, 33.4%, and a decline of 5.9% respectively [2] - Online and offline channels achieved revenues of 1.297 billion and 1.224 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 39.0% and 26.6% [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 84.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, with specific margins for makeup, skincare, fragrance, and makeup art training at 82.7%, 87.5%, 62.9%, and 77.6% respectively [2] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 45.2%, 6.9%, and 0.6%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3, 1.5, and 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable cost management [2] Group 4: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company continues to leverage synergies between makeup and skincare, with significant sales in high-end products such as the small gold fan powder and caviar cushion, each exceeding 200 million yuan [3] - The fragrance segment is expanding with new launches like "Guoyun Ningxiang" and "Wendao Dongfang," achieving sales of 11.41 million yuan [3] - The skincare segment saw retail sales of the caviar mask surpassing 600 million yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of skincare sales, with strong performance from key products [3] Group 5: Channel Strategy and Customer Engagement - The company has expanded its offline presence with 405 self-operated and 32 distributor counters across over 120 cities, achieving a repurchase rate of 30.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [3] - Online sales during the 2025 618 promotion grew over 70%, and the company secured the top position in the Douyin makeup category during the Good Goods Festival, indicating effective online marketing strategies [3]
毛戈平(01318):港股公司信息更新报告:2025H1业绩亮眼,高端国货美妆势能持续向上
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-29 07:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.588 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [4][5] - The company is recognized as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand, demonstrating stable performance even under high base conditions [4] - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.179 billion, 1.536 billion, and 1.939 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.41, 3.13, and 3.95 yuan [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the expected revenue is 5.184 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33.4% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.179 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 84.4% for 2025 [7] - The P/E ratio for 2025 is projected at 35.7 times [7]
毛戈平(01318.HK):1H净利同增36% 多品类/全渠道势能持续释放
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-29 03:02
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance in 1H25, with revenue and net profit growth aligning with previous forecasts and expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 reached 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year - Adjusted net profit stood at 672 million yuan, reflecting a 32.0% increase year-on-year - The performance was consistent with prior forecasts, which anticipated revenue growth of 30.4%-31.9% and net profit growth of 35.0%-37.0% [1]. Growth Trends - All-channel revenue showed rapid growth, with classic products performing well and strong same-store sales growth - By category, cosmetic revenue was 1.42 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year, with key products like caviar cushion and gold fan powder exceeding 200 million yuan in retail sales - Skincare revenue reached 1.09 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year, with significant sales from caviar masks and black cream - Offline revenue was 1.22 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, with same-store revenue growth of approximately 18% - Online revenue was 1.30 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, accounting for 50% of total revenue [1][2]. Operational Efficiency - Gross margin for 1H25 was 84.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased share of online direct sales - Sales expense ratio decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 45.2%, attributed to effective online cost control and optimization of offline store locations - Management expense ratio fell by 1.5 percentage points to 5.3%, influenced by a high base from the previous year and scale effects - Net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 0.9 percentage points to 25.9% [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to develop professional makeup products for different skin types and colors, expand skincare offerings, and enhance fragrance products based on Eastern culture and aesthetics - There is a focus on increasing coverage in high-end department stores in major cities and expanding online consumer reach - Long-term plans include entering overseas markets and strategically expanding a new high-end brand matrix [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 is set at 1.15 billion yuan and 1.46 billion yuan, respectively - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 38x for 2025 and 29x for 2026 - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 127 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 32% [3].
毛戈平(1318.HK):25H1业绩预告靓丽 重申看好高端国货美妆品牌的成长逻辑
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-14 02:54
Core Viewpoint - Mao Geping is expected to report strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue projected between 2.57 billion and 2.60 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%, and net profit estimated between 665 million and 675 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 35.0% to 37.0% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates impressive mid-year results, with both revenue and profit growth exceeding 30% and 35% respectively, driven by effective brand premiumization and a commitment to consumer value [1] - During the 618 shopping festival, Mao Geping's brand ranking improved significantly, reaching 2nd place in Douyin's cosmetics category and 3rd in Tmall's cosmetics and perfume category, highlighting its competitive edge in a challenging consumer environment [1] Group 2: Product Development and Market Position - The launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series is aimed at creating a new growth point, with the Chinese perfume market projected to reach 14.8 billion RMB in 2024 [2] - The new perfume series differentiates itself from foreign brands by focusing on emotional expression and is priced strategically in the 500-800 RMB range, avoiding competition with high-priced international brands while distinguishing itself from lower-priced domestic products [2] - Mao Geping is recognized as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand with pricing power in the Oriental aesthetic market, supported by a strong founder's IP and a professional high-end product matrix [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company has successfully carved out a niche in the high-end segment of the domestic beauty market, establishing a professional brand image that offers better value compared to European and American brands [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 5.05 billion, 6.50 billion, and 8.26 billion RMB respectively, with net profits projected at 1.19 billion, 1.51 billion, and 1.92 billion RMB, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 29.6% for net profit from 2024 to 2027 [3] - Mao Geping is positioned as a leading example of domestic high-end beauty brands, with strong growth potential in product categories and channel expansion [3]
毛戈平(01318.HK):预告1H25净利同增35-37% 净利率提升超预期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-14 02:54
Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a net profit increase of 35%-37% for 1H25, driven by higher online channel revenue and improved operational efficiency [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects 1H25 revenue to be between 2.57-2.60 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4%-31.9%, with net profit projected at 0.665-0.675 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.0%-37.0% [1]. - The anticipated net profit margin for 1H25 is expected to rise by 1.0 percentage point to 25.9% [2]. Channel and Product Performance - Both online and offline channels are expected to experience rapid revenue growth, with an increasing share of online sales. The offline channel is projected to see a high single-digit growth in the number of counters, with same-store sales expected to grow by double digits [1]. - The skincare and makeup categories are anticipated to grow quickly, with classic star products leading sales. New products like skin prep primers are receiving positive market feedback [1]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve due to a higher proportion of revenue from online channels, reduced listing costs, and enhanced operational efficiency [2]. - The online channel's return on investment (ROI) is expected to remain stable, contributing to high-quality growth through strict cost control and efficient operations [2]. Growth Potential and Market Position - The company is well-positioned as a leading high-end domestic beauty brand, with significant growth potential. The product line has been extended to include serums, eye creams, body lotions, perfumes, and eyeshadows, with new perfume launches receiving positive market responses [2]. - The company plans to continue expanding its presence in high-end department stores and is targeting young consumers online, with initial steps taken towards international markets in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Based on improved profitability, the company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 by 3% to 1.15 billion yuan and 1.46 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 39x for 2025 and 30x for 2026 [2]. - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 127 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 29% based on projected price-to-earnings ratios of 50x and 39x for 2025-2026 [2].
毛戈平(01318):25H1业绩预告靓丽,重申看好高端国货美妆品牌的成长逻辑
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-13 12:08
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 25.7 billion to RMB 26.0 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%. The net profit is projected to be between RMB 6.65 billion and RMB 6.75 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 35.0% to 37.0% [2] - The company's strong performance is driven by its high-end brand strategy, which has led to increased consumer recognition and value creation through high-quality products and services [3] - The launch of the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" perfume series is expected to create new growth points, targeting the light luxury market with a price range of RMB 500 to 800, differentiating itself from both international brands and lower-priced domestic products [4][5] - The company is positioned as a rare high-end domestic beauty brand with strong pricing power, supported by a robust brand moat and ongoing expansion into high-end retail channels [5][6] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 50.54 billion, RMB 65.03 billion, and RMB 82.58 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 11.85 billion, RMB 15.06 billion, and RMB 19.18 billion for the same years [6][9] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2024 to 2027 is projected at 29.6%, with earnings per share expected to be RMB 2.42, RMB 3.07, and RMB 3.91 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][9] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 84% across the forecast period, indicating strong profitability [9][11]
林清轩股东扎堆出逃 高端国货美妆的资本对赌局【IPO观察】
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-01 10:26
Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic beauty brand, faces challenges in its IPO journey due to regulatory issues regarding its product claims and high sales expenses despite a high gross margin of 82.5% from its Camellia Oil product [1][2][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Lin Qingxuan's Camellia Oil, priced over 500 RMB, contributed 4.48 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, accounting for 37% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 82.5%, significantly higher than competitors like Proya (64.5%) and Pechoin (75.8%) [2][4]. - The company's sales expenses were 5.09 billion RMB, 4.87 billion RMB, and 6.88 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, representing 73.66%, 60.37%, and 56.86% of revenue, respectively, which remains high compared to Proya's 47.88% and Shanghai Jahwa's 46.69% [2][3]. - Lin Qingxuan's net profit margin was only 15.4% in 2024, indicating profitability challenges despite high gross margins [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Expansion - Lin Qingxuan's store count increased from 366 to 506 between 2022 and 2024, with significant growth in new first-tier and second-tier cities, while online sales grew from 45.2% to 59.1% of total revenue [3][4]. - The brand holds a 1.4% market share in the high-end skincare segment, ranking 13th among top brands, and a 2.2% share in the anti-wrinkle market, placing it in the top ten [4][6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Competitive Challenges - The company faced regulatory scrutiny, receiving fines for false advertising regarding its anti-aging claims, with a total of over 200 complaints related to product efficacy and refund issues [1][4][6]. - Lin Qingxuan's pricing strategy is challenged by competitors like Proya and Winona, which offer lower-priced products, and the brand's online sales face increasing costs and lower margins compared to offline sales [4][6]. Group 4: Investment and Valuation - Lin Qingxuan's valuation dropped from 31.75 billion RMB in 2021 to 15.59 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting broader market trends and internal issues, with significant share reductions by early investors [5][6]. - The company has multiple agreements that could pressure its management to buy back shares if it fails to go public by the end of 2026, indicating potential financial strain [6][7].
卖香皂起家到品类第一,东北大叔年入12亿,即将IPO
创业邦· 2025-06-27 10:26
Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan, a pioneer in the skincare industry, is on the verge of an IPO in Hong Kong, positioning itself as a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, with significant growth in revenue and profitability [4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Lin Qingxuan has sold 30 million bottles of its "essence oil" over 13 years, showcasing its market education efforts [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 82.5% [5]. - Lin Qingxuan's gross margin is competitive, second only to the high-end brand Mao Geping, and comparable to international brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder [5][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Lin Qingxuan ranks first among high-end domestic skincare brands in China and is the only domestic brand in the top 15 high-end skincare brands [6]. - The brand emphasizes its high-end positioning in its prospectus, highlighting a shift in consumer confidence towards domestic brands [6][8]. - The company has a balanced product category distribution, with its flagship product, camellia oil, accounting for 37% of sales [18]. Group 3: Growth and Expansion - Lin Qingxuan's offline store count has grown from 366 to 506 in two years, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.6%, making it the fastest-growing high-end domestic skincare brand in terms of store count [23]. - The company has a strong online presence, with online revenue growing by 81.08% to 714 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 59.1% of total revenue [25]. - Lin Qingxuan's marketing strategy includes a focus on experiential retail and personalized skincare solutions, targeting high-income consumers [24]. Group 4: Innovation and R&D - The company has invested in R&D, with 42 core ingredients developed, and aims to deepen its technological capabilities in the camellia oil sector [32]. - Lin Qingxuan has established long-term supply agreements for camellia flowers and operates two factories in Shanghai, including a carbon-neutral facility [32]. - The brand's R&D expenditure is currently below industry standards, indicating room for improvement in innovation [37]. Group 5: Future Challenges and Vision - Lin Qingxuan aims to become a leading global cosmetics group, competing with established international brands [33]. - The company faces challenges in marketing expenses and needs to enhance its R&D investment to keep pace with industry leaders [36][37]. - The brand's future plans include expanding its product matrix and targeting younger demographics, indicating a strategic shift towards broader market appeal [37].