广发证券 资深宏观分析师 陈礼清 博士 chenliqing@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 2025年8月大类资产表现为科创50＞创业板指＞沪深300＞黄金＞恒科＞道指＞LME铜＞欧股＞纳指＞恒指＞人民币 >0＞中债> 南华综合 ＞美元＞原油＞做 多VIX。9月以来黄金突破前高，美元反弹，国内科技股回调。 第二， 具体来看：（1）8月风险资产多数上涨，波动率先降后升。中国资产总体表现亮眼，人民币同步升值，国债承压；美债牛陡，日德英法债市走软，金油先抑 后扬。9月初避险情绪继续发酵，全球长债利率显著上升，美元、人民币、国内科技股均出现折返，黄金强势。（2）8月商品总体偏平，外盘强于内盘，金银先抑 后扬，铜铝震荡偏强。生意社BPI、南华综合指数月环比分别为0%、-0.6%。9月来原油回踩，但贵金属有色均表现亮眼；（3）美股三大指继续震荡收红，道指涨 逾3%，对利率敏感的中小盘罗素2000最为亮眼；但科技股迎来估值阻力。欧股在赔率偏低中呈现分化表现。日股成为发达国家股市的"性价比"之选，涨幅扩大逾 4%。但9月日股与道指表现亦有所折返；（4）8月美债利率牛陡下行，但9月初转为上行；日德英 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the gold market, discussing its pricing mechanisms, investment demand, and the impact of central bank purchases on gold prices [1][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Pricing Drivers**: The primary drivers of gold prices are investment demand and central bank purchases, with jewelry demand acting as a suppressive factor. Investors tend to buy gold when prices are rising, while central banks increase purchases at price lows and reduce them at highs [1][3]. - **Financial Product Attributes**: Gold pricing is influenced by liquidity, yield, and safety. The real yield on U.S. Treasuries is used to measure the opportunity cost of holding gold, while credit risk associated with the dollar affects its safety attribute [1][4][8]. - **Liquidity Indicators**: Dollar liquidity indicators, such as Libor, can measure the impact of liquidity on gold prices, but they are difficult to predict and only provide reference points [1][6]. - **Long-term Asset Comparison**: Gold is viewed as a long-term asset, comparable to 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with its pricing framework dependent on the real yield of Treasuries and the creditworthiness of the dollar [1][8][9]. - **Impact of Liquidity Crises**: Liquidity crises can lead to short-term adjustments in gold prices but do not alter the long-term trend. Economic crises, pandemics, or trade tensions can cause temporary market volatility [1][10]. - **Future Price Predictions**: Since October 2022, credit factors have driven gold prices up, with an estimated increase of $750 per year. If the trend of de-dollarization continues, gold prices could rise by 20% or more annually in the coming years [1][11][13]. Additional Important Points - **Gold Stocks Potential**: Gold stocks possess resource attributes and inherent growth potential. Companies like Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Zhaojin Mining are highlighted for their growth prospects despite rising costs [2][14]. - **Market Outlook**: The gold market is expected to trend upward over the next 5-10 years, with increasing understanding of the dollar's credit framework leading to higher valuations for gold companies. Companies with strong resource attributes and internal growth, such as Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining, are expected to outperform gold prices [2][15].