传统黄金定价模型失效：2022 年后，美债实际利率对金价的解释力减 弱，高通胀环境可能低估实际利率，且全球央行购金占比接近 1/4，结 构性需求改变了定价逻辑。 央行购金反映美元信任危机：美欧冻结俄储备资产冲击信用体系，美国 债务高企透支美元信用，经济内生动能较弱限制偿债能力，全球秩序面 临重构，促使各国增持黄金避险。 新兴经济体增持黄金策略：新兴经济体为应对发展和安全的不确定性， 普遍选择减持美元资产、增持黄金，中国央行是主要推动力量，2022- 2024 年持续增持。 地缘政治风险推升购金需求：中东局势、俄乌冲突、经贸摩擦等因素提 升了黄金的避险吸引力，促使各国央行将购金从短期避险转为长期战略。 美国政策不确定性影响：美国政治极化加剧，对外政策工具化，叠加就 业数据疲软和美联储独立性受损，削弱了美元作为全球储备货币的稳定 性。 黄金占央行资产比重提升空间大：目前黄金占比虽低于历史高位，但自 2014 年以来持续回升，各国央行增持意愿强烈，未来仍有上升空间。 中国多措并举推动金价上涨：中国央行大量增持黄金，并允许保险公司 开展中长期配置目的的黄金投资，为金价提供持续上涨动力。 Q&A 黄金的定价机制是什么？ ...

1月6日，据追风交易台消息，瑞银全球宏观策略团队在最新研报中称，金价上涨的"成色"不足，12月的这波 行情并非由黄金自身的独立利好驱动，而是单纯"搭了白银、铂金和钯金爆发的便车"。 该行特别强调，更令人担忧的是，黄金的波动性已飙升至俄乌冲突爆发初期的水平，这种高波动性正在削弱 黄金在私人投资组合中作为"压舱石"的吸引力。 模型显示，黄金与实际利率的关系已经破裂，在没有新消息刺激的情况下，残差显著加速，这通常是回调的 前兆。 研报指出，尽管如此，鉴于全球央行的买盘、多元化需求、ETF流入、金矿股的估值滞后等因素，瑞银维持 长期看多观点不变，目前大跌（跌幅20%以上）的条件不具备。 模型失效与波动性飙升：短期最大的敌人 瑞银向投资者发出最新的明确信号：虽然长期看多黄金至每盎司4,750美元的目标未变，且过去两个月金价已 完成了该目标一半的涨幅，但短期警报已经拉响。 研报指出，自俄乌冲突导致俄罗斯央行储备被冻结后，传统的黄金定价模型就已经"坏了"。 在此之前，黄金与美国实际利率有着极强的负相关性——实际利率每变动100个基点，通常会导致金价反向波 动约12-14%。 但自2025年8月以来，尽管实际利率并未大幅下行 ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-24 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20251222：2026 年转债策略：从收益增强转向风险平衡 2025 年转债市场呈现"平价和溢价率双击"的大贝塔行情（最优解），展 望 2026 年"高估值+强赎倾向+次新走妖"或将成为自身掣肘，转债资产 的定位应当从"权益替代"转向"债市补充收益"（次优解）。正股层面， 慢牛预期下平价或仍可成为正向收益贡献，但各主线的交易逻辑逐步发 生改变，也将影响转债交易特性，一方面科技成长逐步从"0-1"向"1- N"过渡，市场也将从"主题投资普涨"过渡到"去伪存真、产业链供需 重塑环节趋多"，对应转债内部表现或更分化、抱团更集中，具体个券的 价格和溢价率容忍度或会进一步提高；另一方面，通胀抬升和反内卷进入 "深入整治"阶段，转债可利用"非对称性"适度进行反向投资。 #大类资产：技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价的影响？ 核心观点：我们根据过去黄金 ETF 规模与金价的线性关系倒推出金价隐 含的黄金 ETF 需求。统计结果显示，投资需求每增加 1 吨，金价上涨 0.46$/oz。2 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 #大类资产 证券分析师 芦哲 技术帖：如何量化央行购金对金价的影响？ 2025 年 12 月 22 日 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 《政策退坡和基数抬升下商品消费延 续承压》 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 《降息交易陷入纠结，市场静待"圣 诞老人"行情》 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 2025-12-21 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：我们根据过去黄金 ETF 规模与金价的线性关系倒推出金价 隐含的黄金 ETF 需求。统计结果显示，投资需求每增加 1 吨，金价上涨 0.46$/oz。2023 年以来，二者残差不断扩大，我们发现全球央行购金行 为可解释 92.78%的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment since August 2025 has been characterized by a strong performance in high-growth sectors, particularly in China's technology stocks, alongside a backdrop of rising global bond yields and shifting currency dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In August 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Sci-Tech 50 > ChiNext Index > CSI 300 > Gold > Hang Seng Tech > Dow Jones > LME Copper > European Stocks > NASDAQ > Hang Seng Index > RMB > 0 > China Bond > Nanhua Composite > USD > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Risk assets generally rose in August, with notable performance in Chinese assets, a concurrent appreciation of the RMB, and pressure on government bonds [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a broad increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 10.9% in August, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 13.4 basis points to 1.84% [2][27]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The primary macro trading themes since August 2025 include a "high-growth narrative" led by the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index, a "rate cut trade" in the U.S. following downward revisions in employment data, and a rise in "risk aversion" reflected in increasing global bond yields [3][57]. - The U.S. employment data revision has opened a window for potential Fed rate cuts, influencing various asset classes to align with this "rate cut trade" [3][57]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. hard data has remained stable while soft data has slightly improved since August, contrasting with Europe and Japan, where economic outlooks are mixed [4][70]. - China's economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with an estimated actual GDP growth of approximately 4.76% for August, aligning with seasonal economic characteristics [4][70]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [2][42]. - The rental yield in major cities has remained above the 30-year government bond yield, although the leading margin has narrowed compared to previous periods [2][42]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Sentiment - The volatility in the market has seen a decrease in August, with the number of daily ranking changes among 19 asset classes dropping from 124 to 114 [15][62]. - The VIX index has shown signs of recovery, indicating increased market uncertainty and potential adjustments in global risk assets [15][63].

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the gold market, discussing its pricing mechanisms, investment demand, and the impact of central bank purchases on gold prices [1][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Pricing Drivers**: The primary drivers of gold prices are investment demand and central bank purchases, with jewelry demand acting as a suppressive factor. Investors tend to buy gold when prices are rising, while central banks increase purchases at price lows and reduce them at highs [1][3]. - **Financial Product Attributes**: Gold pricing is influenced by liquidity, yield, and safety. The real yield on U.S. Treasuries is used to measure the opportunity cost of holding gold, while credit risk associated with the dollar affects its safety attribute [1][4][8]. - **Liquidity Indicators**: Dollar liquidity indicators, such as Libor, can measure the impact of liquidity on gold prices, but they are difficult to predict and only provide reference points [1][6]. - **Long-term Asset Comparison**: Gold is viewed as a long-term asset, comparable to 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with its pricing framework dependent on the real yield of Treasuries and the creditworthiness of the dollar [1][8][9]. - **Impact of Liquidity Crises**: Liquidity crises can lead to short-term adjustments in gold prices but do not alter the long-term trend. Economic crises, pandemics, or trade tensions can cause temporary market volatility [1][10]. - **Future Price Predictions**: Since October 2022, credit factors have driven gold prices up, with an estimated increase of $750 per year. If the trend of de-dollarization continues, gold prices could rise by 20% or more annually in the coming years [1][11][13]. Additional Important Points - **Gold Stocks Potential**: Gold stocks possess resource attributes and inherent growth potential. Companies like Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Zhaojin Mining are highlighted for their growth prospects despite rising costs [2][14]. - **Market Outlook**: The gold market is expected to trend upward over the next 5-10 years, with increasing understanding of the dollar's credit framework leading to higher valuations for gold companies. Companies with strong resource attributes and internal growth, such as Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining, are expected to outperform gold prices [2][15].