行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 2025 年 10 月 10 日 快递三季报验证利润修复弹性，造 船进入业绩释放，把握油运造船上 行机会 看好 ——交运行业 2025Q3 业绩前瞻 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 联系人 范晨轩 (8621)23297818× fancx@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 ...

观点指数 物流相关指数现波动，政策发力无人物流广泛应用2025年8月中国物流景气指数（LPI）为50.9%，环比回升0.4%，仓储指数为49.3%，环 比降0.8%落入收缩区间，指数呈波动态势。快递、电商物流指数向好。政策方面，国务院及交通运输部发布"人工智能+"相关意见，推动物流无 人服务与智能终端应用，支撑行业智能化升级。 物流相关指数现波动，政策发力无人物流广泛应用 物流企业持续优化结构，"AI+物流"持续减耗提效据物联云仓披露，8月全国平均租金为23.17元/㎡·月，空置率为16.45%，快递费上涨使园区租金 有望继续保持稳定。物流企业持续优化运营结构，上半年多数上市物流企业的营收利润录得增长，安得智联、京东物流等借助智能技术降本增 效，物流企业与科技公司的跨界协同作用显著。 智慧物流园区加速落地，跨境保税仓战略升级报告期内，共录得7起投资事件：京东产发完成迪拜物流园交割、收购新加坡物流资产，圆通在哈萨 克斯坦购地建保税仓，菜鸟拓展墨西哥市场。国内普洛斯、申通、中通等推进智慧园区建设。此外，7起融资事件通过全球节点布局与资本助力， 推动行业全球化智能化发展。 仓储REITs上半年表现稳健，普洛斯受投资 ...

东吴证券认为，大型语言模型时代下，智能程度高速提升的人工智能模型能够更高效地完成泛化社会领 域中的复杂任务，为"AI+物流"的发展模式提供现实背景和技术支持。展望未来，物流本身作为密切关 联多领域的基础性服务，正在占据更为重要的功能性地位，且面临智能化转型的迫切需求。在全球市场 竞争日益激烈、消费需求快速多变以及企业追求降本增效等时代性挑战下，物流行业急需进一步加深与 智能化技术的融合程度，加快推进物流行业的数字化、智能化进程。 银河证券认为，需求端受益于小件化、逆向件、下沉市场拓展，物流行业业务量增速超预期。过去几年 各家上市公司核心资产自营、数字化改造完成后，没有较好的资本投入方向，企业资本开支有所回落。 无人物流车的出现提供了从总部到加盟商层面的可靠降本增效路径，有望再次重塑行业格局。无人物流 车作为快递行业降本增效的关键技术，在电商末端配送环节助力快递企业结构性降本与网络优化，各企 业正积极推进无人车布局，2025年将进入规模化商用爆发拐点。 据央视新闻消息，记者从中国物流与采购联合会了解到，"十四五"期间，我国社会物流总额保持稳中有 升发展态势。2025年，全社会物流总额规模有望达到380万亿元，5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly favoring engineering machinery and forklifts, as well as PCB equipment and humanoid robots [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing strong domestic and international demand, with excavator sales in July reaching 7,306 units, a year-on-year increase of 17%. This indicates robust demand resilience in the domestic market [2]. - Forklift sales in July totaled 119,000 units, up 14% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 70,000 units, also reflecting a 14% increase. The sector is expected to maintain steady growth due to recovering demand in Europe and the U.S. [3]. - The humanoid robotics sector is witnessing advancements, highlighted by the successful World Robot Sports Conference, which showcased improvements in robot mobility and decision-making capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - July excavator sales reached 7,306 units, a 17% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand resilience. The domestic market shows a trend favoring small excavators, particularly in water conservancy projects [2]. - Non-excavator machinery sales also showed positive trends, with significant year-on-year increases in various categories, particularly in the crane segment [2]. - Export volumes reached 9,832 units, a 32% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand from markets like Africa and Indonesia [2]. - The report highlights the potential for profit margin improvements due to a shift in export structure favoring larger excavators, which have higher profit margins [2]. Forklifts - The forklift industry saw sales of 119,000 units in July, a 14% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales at 70,000 units [3]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the forklift sector, driven by domestic demand and recovery in overseas markets [3]. - Key players in the industry are forming strategic partnerships to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach [3]. Humanoid Robots - The World Robot Sports Conference showcased significant advancements in robot capabilities, particularly in mobility and autonomous decision-making [4]. - The report identifies key components for humanoid robots, such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials, as critical areas for investment [4]. - The focus on lightweight materials and applications in logistics is expected to drive growth in the humanoid robotics sector [4]. PCB Equipment - The report notes a significant increase in global server sales, which is expected to drive demand for PCB equipment, with a projected market size of $366 billion by 2025 [9]. - The demand for high-layer and HDI boards is expected to grow significantly, with respective year-on-year increases of 40.2% and 18.8% [10]. - The report suggests focusing on key production processes such as drilling, exposure, and plating, which are critical for PCB manufacturing [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery equipment and robotics industries are expected to benefit from frequent catalysts, with a recommendation for undervalued engineering machinery and semiconductor equipment [1] - The solid-state battery is projected to achieve small-scale production by 2027, with commercial viability expected by 2030, leading to increased demand for related equipment [2] - The robotics sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with significant improvements in motion control capabilities and new application scenarios being demonstrated [3] Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - A comprehensive list of recommended companies includes Northern Huachuang, SANY Heavy Industry, Zhongwei Company, Hengli Hydraulic, CIMC, and others across various sectors [1][4] Investment Highlights - In the lithium battery equipment sector, leading manufacturers are expected to benefit from the solid-state battery timeline, with equipment vendors poised for growth due to increased demand [2] - The robotics industry is seeing advancements in motion control and application scenarios, with companies like Yushu Technology and Zhiyuan showcasing new capabilities [3][4] - The engineering machinery sector is set to benefit from large-scale projects like the Yajiang hydropower project, which is expected to significantly boost domestic machinery demand [5] Industry Trends - The solid-state battery industry is transitioning towards commercialization, with significant changes in manufacturing processes that will create new demand for equipment [39][40] - The robotics industry is evolving towards more intelligent systems, with AI-driven technologies enhancing operational capabilities [36][38] Financial Projections - The report projects significant profit growth for companies involved in solid-state battery equipment, with expected net profits for the company "Xinyuren" reaching 8.5 million, 54.7 million, and 79.4 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [24] - The engineering machinery sector anticipates annual profit increments of 30-40 billion yuan due to the adoption of electric and unmanned machinery [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment sector [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with equipment manufacturers being the primary beneficiaries. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to establish a standard system for solid-state batteries by 2025, with significant investments already made in R&D [2] - The forklift industry shows strong growth, with May sales reaching 123,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The demand for large forklifts is particularly strong, indicating a robust outlook for leading companies in Q2 [3] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, with May excavator sales at 18,202 units, a 2.12% increase year-on-year. The sector is currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities [4] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Equipment - Solid-state battery commercialization is accelerating, benefiting equipment suppliers. Key players include: - **Xian Dao Intelligent**: Offers a complete solution for solid-state battery manufacturing [2] - **Yinghe Technology**: Recently delivered core solid-state battery equipment to a leading domestic battery company [2] - **Huaya Intelligent**: Signed an agreement for a 200MWh solid-state battery production line project [2] - Investment recommendations focus on solid-state battery equipment suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent and laser welding equipment manufacturers [2] Forklift Industry - May forklift sales reached 123,000 units, with domestic sales at 79,000 units (up 9%) and exports at 44,000 units (up 17%). The demand for large forklifts is particularly strong, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in Q2 [3] - Key players include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Group, which are actively pursuing smart logistics solutions [3] Engineering Machinery - May excavator sales were 18,202 units, with a slight year-on-year increase. The sector is seeing a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, with a 9% increase in export value for engineering machinery in the first five months of 2025 [4] - Recommended stocks include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, as the sector is currently undervalued [4] General Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong growth potential in the solid-state battery and engineering machinery sectors, highlighting the importance of technological advancements and market demand [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the engineering machinery and oil service equipment sectors [1] Core Insights - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports to the Middle East, driven by China's increasing foreign investments in energy projects, with a projected total investment of $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 in six countries [2][21] - The engineering machinery sector shows a mixed outlook, with a decline in domestic excavator sales but a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, indicating undervalued investment opportunities [3] - The trend towards lightweight humanoid robots is accelerating, with increased application of magnesium alloys and PEEK materials, enhancing performance and efficiency [4][27] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - China's foreign investment in energy projects in the Middle East is expected to reach $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024, with oil and gas projects accounting for $29.15 billion [2][21] - Leading companies like Jerry and Neway have seen explosive growth in orders from the Middle East, with Jerry's orders expected to double in 2024 [2][23] - The Middle East oil service market is projected to be worth over $100 billion, with significant growth potential for Chinese companies [2][21] Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with domestic sales declining by 1.48% [3] - Non-excavator machinery sales are recovering, with significant year-on-year increases in sales of road rollers and pavers [3] - The sector is currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities as export sales continue to support overall performance [3] Humanoid Robots - Lightweight design is becoming a core focus for humanoid robot manufacturers, utilizing materials like magnesium alloys and PEEK to reduce weight and improve performance [4][25] - Magnesium alloy's density is only two-thirds that of aluminum, offering advantages in strength and processing, while PEEK materials are expected to see increased application as costs decrease [26][27] - Investment opportunities in magnesium alloy die-casting and PEEK materials are highlighted, with specific companies recommended for attention [5][28] Forklifts and AI in Logistics - The integration of AI in logistics is driving the transformation towards automation, with a focus on unmanned forklifts and smart logistics solutions [6] - Key players in the forklift industry are forming strategic partnerships to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach [6] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of major players like CATL, with significant investments in new production facilities [10][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state battery technology as a future growth area, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent positioned to capitalize on this trend [10][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the magnesium alloy die-casting sector such as Xusheng Group and Baowu Magnesium, as well as PEEK material companies like Zhongyan Co. and Watte [5][28]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid expansion of Cainiao's logistics technology capabilities globally, emphasizing its leadership in cross-border logistics and technological innovation [1][2] - Cainiao's logistics technology division has seen a 61% year-on-year increase in large client numbers, indicating strong demand for its automation and digitalization solutions [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its overseas presence by establishing regional offices and increasing local hiring in key markets [1][10] Group 1: Global Expansion and Market Strategy - Cainiao has successfully secured orders in regions with strong logistics technology competition, attributing this success to "Chinese experience" and "Chinese innovation" [1][12] - The company has established a logistics robotics R&D department to develop operational robots tailored for logistics scenarios, with expectations of higher growth rates overseas compared to domestic markets [1][10] - Cainiao's strategy includes leveraging its extensive domestic experience to address cultural and operational differences in international markets [3][6] Group 2: Product and Brand Strength - Cainiao's logistics technology products are categorized into digitalization and automation, with multiple product lines generating over 100 million in sales [1][8] - The company has built strong relationships with multinational corporations through prior domestic collaborations, facilitating global partnerships [7][9] - Cainiao's competitive edge lies in its ability to enhance efficiency and reduce costs through innovative products, such as its energy-efficient sorting machines [8][12] Group 3: Challenges and Future Goals - Cainiao faces challenges such as differing project management styles across regions and the need to meet stringent requirements from multinational partners [6][7] - The company aims to focus on breakthroughs in logistics robotics and enhance its overseas delivery capabilities through increased investment and local team deployment [10][12] - Cainiao recognizes the importance of adapting to global industry trends, particularly in AI, to establish a competitive barrier in the logistics sector [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports to the Middle East, driven by China's increasing foreign investments in energy projects, with a cumulative investment of $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 in six countries [2] - The lithium battery equipment sector is benefiting from the release of impairment risks and accelerated production expansion, particularly with major players like CATL increasing their production capacity [3] - The humanoid robot sector is seeing advancements with the launch of second-generation electronic skin and accelerated mass production of Tesla's Optimus robot [4] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a decline in domestic excavator sales but a recovery in non-excavator machinery, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations [5] - The forklift industry is undergoing a transformation towards automation and intelligence, driven by AI advancements [6] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - China's foreign investment in the energy sector is projected to drive significant growth in oil service equipment exports, particularly to the Middle East, with leading companies like Jereh and Neway experiencing explosive order growth [2] Lithium Battery Equipment - The sector has accounted for a total impairment provision of 5.7 billion yuan, with major expansions planned by CATL, including a new factory in Hungary with a total capacity of 72GWh [3] - Solid-state battery technology is emerging as a key growth area, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent expected to benefit significantly [3] Humanoid Robots - The introduction of advanced electronic skin technology enhances the capabilities of humanoid robots, while Tesla's Optimus robot is moving towards mass production [4] Engineering Machinery - Despite a decrease in excavator sales, there is a notable recovery in other machinery segments, with exports showing a 9% increase in the first four months of 2025 [5] Forklift Industry - The integration of AI in logistics is accelerating the shift towards automated and intelligent forklifts, with significant opportunities for leading companies in the sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - Manbang's Q1 2025 financial report shows significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a strong market position and operational efficiency driven by technology and a focus on reducing logistics costs [1][2][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - Manbang achieved a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 19% year-on-year increase [1] - The net profit under non-GAAP was 1.39 billion yuan, marking an 84% year-on-year growth [1] - Key operational metrics, including active drivers and fulfillment rates, reached record highs, reflecting enhanced user engagement and platform optimization [1] Group 2: Logistics Cost Reduction - The logistics industry in China faces high costs due to redundant intermediaries and inefficient capacity allocation, creating a "cost black hole" [2] - Digital freight platforms like Manbang can streamline the connection between shippers and drivers, reducing logistics costs through process optimization and resource integration [2] - With the emphasis on boosting consumption and domestic demand, reducing logistics costs is critical, positioning Manbang to capture more market opportunities [2] Group 3: Technology and AI Integration - Manbang leverages AI and cloud computing to innovate and replace traditional logistics models, enhancing value for customers and the industry [3][4] - Key metrics include a record high of 4.18 million active drivers and over 1.1 million shipper members, with direct shipper fulfillment orders reaching 51% [3] - The overall fulfillment rate of the platform reached 39.2%, indicating improved operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [3] Group 4: Future Opportunities - Manbang's investment in autonomous driving technology aims to maintain its competitive edge in the logistics sector [4][5] - The integration of AI in logistics is expected to further enhance efficiency and reduce costs, providing new solutions for the industry [4] - The company's focus on driver empowerment through technology will improve safety and operational effectiveness, reinforcing its market position [5][6]