申万宏源证券指出，市场开始提前交易Q1-Q2的企业新车周期，主要是新技术驱动下的产品力提升。智 能化仍将是今年主要的增量板块，FSD入华预期有望再次发酵。国内成本端压力较大，看好海外出口机 会。基于AI外溢+反内卷+需求修复主线，行业反内卷涨价周期下，利好二手车盈利修复。 港股汽车ETF国泰（520720）跟踪的是港股通汽车指数（931239），该指数从港股通范围内选取涉及整 车制造、零部件等汽车产业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，聚焦智能驾驶与新能源汽车领域，以反映相 关上市公司证券的整体表现。指数成分集中于汽车板块，兼具高成长性与国际化特征，并突出智能驾驶 新势力及新能源车企的代表性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian electric vehicle (EV) market has shown significant changes, with sales and penetration rates of Chinese EV brands in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand exceeding expectations due to price reductions in 2025 [5][6]. - GWM's net profit for 2025 is reported at 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, attributed to various factors including policy changes in Russia and increased operational costs [7]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for Chinese EV exports in 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and product iterations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market Analysis - The Southeast Asian EV market has improved significantly, with Chinese brands gaining market share due to competitive pricing strategies [5]. - The market is expected to see continued growth as local support policies evolve, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and increased pricing power for Chinese brands [5][6]. - Major Chinese EV manufacturers are expanding their presence in Southeast Asia, launching new models to enhance their product offerings [6]. GWM Performance Overview - GWM's net profit for 2025 is projected at 9.9 billion yuan, down 22% from the previous year, primarily due to increased costs and operational challenges [7]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 1.8 million vehicles in 2026, with significant contributions expected from new models and international markets [7]. - The introduction of new vehicles is anticipated to drive sales growth and improve profit margins, positioning GWM for a potential valuation increase [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential of 隆盛科技 in the commercial aerospace sector, focusing on core component supply and deepening relationships with key customers, successfully entering the satellite constellation supply chain [2][3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in the harmonic reducer sector, aiming for 200,000 units by 2026, while also exploring new applications in commercial aerospace [4]. - The automotive industry shows a positive trend, with domestic and international vehicle production and sales increasing, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [6][7]. Summary by Sections 隆盛科技 Update - 隆盛科技 is focusing on core component supply in the commercial aerospace sector, with its subsidiary 微研中佳 providing key components for satellite energy and control modules, successfully integrating into the supply chains of major aerospace companies [3]. - The company is also advancing in the harmonic reducer market, with a planned production capacity of 200,000 units by 2026, and is developing customized solutions for humanoid and industrial robots [4]. - Other business segments, including drones and precision components, are showing positive growth, with significant advancements in the natural gas heavy-duty truck EGR valve market [5]. Quarterly Report Preview - According to data from 中汽协, the total vehicle production and sales for Q4 2025 reached 10.186 million and 10.023 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 3.9% and 1.7% [6]. - Domestic retail share for independent brands reached 66.9% in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points, while new energy vehicle wholesale reached 4.89 million units, up 13.2% year-on-year [7]. - The average industry discount rate decreased by 1.33 percentage points to 12.28% in Q4 2025, indicating reduced terminal discounts [8]. - Traditional raw material price indices saw a decline, while new energy raw material prices and shipping costs increased, impacting supply chain profitability [8].

业 及 产 业 汽车 2026 年 01 月 29 日 隆盛科技更新、四季报前瞻 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W142） 本期投资提示： 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《永达汽车、天准科技、隆盛、银轮、天 成、福达——一周一刻钟，大事快评 （W141）》 2026/01/21 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 A0230524120001 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 shaoyi@swsresearch.com ⚫ 隆盛科技更新：①商业航天领域，公司聚焦核心部件供应并深耕关键客户，成功切入星 座产业链，构筑业务增长核心。子公司微研中佳的产品覆盖卫星能源与控制模块核心部 件，已配套航天科技等卫星及载荷公司、间接服务蓝箭航天等火箭企业，且产品顺利切 入 GW 星座等星座运营商产业链。②谐波减速器领域，公司2026年产能将达20万套， 同时积极拓展商业航天新场景。公司子公司蔚瀚智能主导该产品研产，聚焦人形机器人 等场景并推出轻量化、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the automotive sector compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is gradually returning to its profit center, with a strong focus on overseas expansion [1]. - In Q4 2025, total vehicle production and sales reached 10.186 million and 10.023 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 3.9% and 1.7% [4]. - Domestic retail share of independent brands reached 66.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 13.2% year-on-year [4]. - The average industry discount rate decreased by 1.33 percentage points to 12.28% in Q4 2025, indicating reduced terminal discounts [4]. - Traditional raw material prices saw a decline, while new energy raw material prices increased, impacting supply chain profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Vehicle Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 9.018 million and 8.845 million units, with year-on-year changes of +2.2% and -0.3% respectively [4]. - Commercial vehicle production and sales reached 1.168 million and 1.178 million units, with year-on-year increases of +19.4% and +20.0% [4]. - Exports of vehicles in Q4 2025 totaled 2.147 million units, a significant year-on-year increase of 39.8%, with new energy vehicles showing remarkable growth [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the leading position of independent brands in the market, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle sales [4]. - The report notes a divergence in profitability among automakers due to varying new vehicle release schedules and the suspension of trade-in subsidies [4]. Profit Forecasts - The report provides profit forecasts for key automotive companies, indicating significant growth for companies like Jifeng and Dongfang, while others like BYD and Li Auto are expected to see declines [6][8]. - Specific profit growth rates for Q4 2025 show a wide range, with some companies experiencing over 600% growth, while others face substantial losses [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from AI integration and overseas business support, such as BYD and Geely [4]. - It also emphasizes the importance of companies with strong performance in the supply chain, particularly in the context of rising raw material prices [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on companies with strong supply-demand dynamics and pricing power, as well as those with technological cost-reduction capabilities [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an upward trend in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies like Fuda, Bertley, Minshi, Top, and Jingu, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers such as Xiaopeng, NIO, Li Auto, BAIC, and Jianghuai [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in the used car sector and improved profitability for dealers due to the industry's inflationary pricing cycle, recommending companies like Uxin [1][2]. - The report notes that the official implementation of new subsidies is expected to boost demand primarily in the mid-to-low-end market, with companies like BYD and Geely being highlighted for their performance potential [2]. Market Updates - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the last week of December reached 123,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% this week, while the overall market index (CSI 300) increased by 2.79%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [12]. - The report indicates that 201 automotive stocks rose while 68 fell, with the largest gainers being Siling Co., Jingu Co., and Kaizhong Co., which saw increases of 30.5%, 26.3%, and 23.3%, respectively [18]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the 403rd batch of new car approvals, which includes notable models such as Xiaomi SU7, NIO ES9, and BYD's new models [3][4][5]. - The report discusses the rising costs of memory impacting the automotive industry, with NIO's founder highlighting that memory prices are becoming a significant cost pressure compared to traditional materials like lithium [6][7]. - A joint initiative by nine government departments aims to promote green consumption, with a focus on supporting the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhancing the automotive supply chain [10][11][26]. Financial Analysis - The automotive industry currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the broader market [15]. - The report notes that there are no companies facing stock unlocks in the upcoming week, which may provide stability in the market [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong positions in AI and robotics, such as Desay SV, Jingwei Hirain, and Kobot, which are expected to benefit from the industry's technological advancements [1][2]. - It also suggests monitoring component manufacturers with solid earnings support and relatively low valuations, including Yinlun, Fuda, Shuanghuan, Jifeng, Minshi, Xingyu, and Ningbo Huaxiang [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an increase in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies with good supply-demand dynamics and price transmission capabilities, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers with model cycles [2]. - The report notes that the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 123,000 units in the last week of December, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the recently implemented green consumption policies, which aim to support the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhance the automotive industry's supply chain [11][12]. Market Updates - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 638.35 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 11.27%. The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% during the week [2][13]. - The report indicates that the automotive industry index's growth was lower than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [13]. - The report lists significant stock movements, with 201 stocks rising and 68 falling, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the automotive sector [19]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 403rd batch of new vehicle approvals, featuring several notable models from various manufacturers [3][4]. - The report discusses the rising cost pressures in the automotive industry due to increasing memory prices, which are becoming a significant factor affecting profitability [6][8]. - The report mentions a strategic cooperation agreement between CATL and NIO, focusing on battery technology and market collaboration [36]. Financial Metrics - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's 14.41 [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a flat-rate model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands will be less affected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to reshape the sales structure of NEVs in 2026, with a decline in demand for low-end models and a relative advantage for mid-to-high-end models [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The new subsidy policy will lead to a 19% reduction for Geely and a 14% reduction for BYD, while companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a smaller impact of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [2]. - The demand for A0 and A00 level low-end models, which previously relied heavily on subsidies, is expected to decrease significantly [2]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - Xiaopeng Motors delivered nearly 430,000 vehicles in 2025, a 126% year-on-year increase. However, the average selling price (ASP) dropped from approximately 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025 due to changes in product mix [3]. - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 597,000 vehicles in 2025, doubling from 290,000 in 2024. The company plans to launch two high-end models in 2026 and aims for a sales target of 1 million vehicles [4]. - Great Wall Motors sold 1.32 million vehicles in 2025, with a 7% year-on-year growth. The company has set a sales target of 1.8 million vehicles for 2026, reflecting a 40% increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies with advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers like Yinchuan, Fuda, and Shuanghuan, which are expected to benefit from the new subsidy policies [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a "one-size-fits-all" model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands are largely unaffected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to significantly reshape the sales structure of new energy vehicles in 2026, with demand for low-end models likely to decline, benefiting mid-to-high-end models and companies with higher average selling prices (ASP) [3]. Summary by Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The 2026 subsidy policy will lead to a reduction in subsidies for companies with a higher share of low-end models, with Geely facing a 19% reduction and BYD a 14% reduction. In contrast, companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a reduction of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [3][4]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - **Xiaopeng Motors**: Projected delivery volume for 2025 is approximately 430,000 units, a 126% increase year-on-year. December deliveries were 37,500 units, showing a decline due to subsidy reductions. The ASP is expected to drop from nearly 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025. Xiaopeng plans to launch seven dual-power models in 2026, which are expected to benefit from the policy changes [4][5]. - **Leap Motor**: Expected to deliver 597,000 units in 2025, doubling from 290,000 units in 2024. The growth is driven by new models and overseas market expansion. Despite the introduction of lower-priced models, Leap Motor has maintained its gross margin due to effective cost control. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [5][6]. - **Great Wall Motors**: Anticipated sales for 2025 are 1.32 million units, a 7% increase. The company has optimized its internal structure, with new models compensating for declines in older models. The sales target for 2026 is set at 1.8 million units, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth expectation [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies that have advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as key Tier 1 suppliers. It also recommends second-hand car companies and component manufacturers with low valuations and growth potential, such as Yinchuan, Fuda, and others [2][6].