Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the challenges and confidence of Leap Technology in achieving its sales targets for 2026, despite external and internal pressures [1] - Leap Technology's new model, the Leap A10, was launched at the Guangzhou International Auto Show, completing its product matrix across four major series (A, B, C, D) and marking a new phase of full coverage in mainstream market segments [1] - The Leap A10 features impressive specifications, including a 500km CLTC range, dual flagship chips (Snapdragon 8295P and 8650), comprehensive intelligent assistance, and an 88.1% space utilization rate [1] Group 2 - Leap Technology aims to double its overseas sales target to over 100,000 units next year, with a current target of 50,000 units for this year [1] - The company plans to expand its network and enhance its product lineup in overseas markets, with models like T03, C10, B10, and the upcoming Lafa5 and C16 [1] - Leap Technology has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with FAW, focusing on joint product development and exploring potential capital collaboration [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability metrics, indicating a positive trend in its business operations [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 19.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.7% [1] - The gross margin reached 14.5%, improving by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased sales volume, cost management, and enhanced revenue from carbon credit sales, which contributed approximately 250 million yuan [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 150 million yuan, with a total net profit of 180 million yuan for the first three quarters [1] Product and Channel Expansion - The company delivered 174,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, maintaining the top position in new energy vehicle deliveries for eight consecutive months [1] - The introduction of new models, such as the B01, has contributed to strong sales, with monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units since its launch [1] - The sales service network expanded to cover 292 cities, an increase of 88 cities year-on-year, with a total of 866 sales outlets, enhancing market reach [1] Export Growth and Overseas Expansion - In Q3 2025, the company exported 17,400 vehicles, leading the new energy vehicle sector in exports, with a total of 37,800 vehicles exported in the first three quarters [2] - The company has established over 700 sales points overseas, including more than 650 in Europe, and plans to enter the South American market with a presence at the São Paulo Auto Show [2] - Local production projects in Malaysia and Europe are expected to enhance profitability and supply capabilities in local markets by 2026 [2] Profitability Forecast - The company maintains its profitability outlook, projecting revenues of 63.9 billion yuan, 113.2 billion yuan, and 174 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 740 million yuan, 6.27 billion yuan, and 8.43 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first half-year profit, with both domestic and international sales accelerating significantly [3]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw the company report revenue of 19.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.7% [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 14.5%, showing improvements both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased sales volume and cost management [5]. - The company delivered 174,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, maintaining its position as the top new force in vehicle deliveries for eight consecutive months [7]. - The company is expanding its product matrix and sales channels, with a significant increase in sales service network coverage [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 63.90 billion yuan in 2025, 113.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 174.00 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 92%, 99%, 77%, and 54% respectively [3][9]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit of 738 million yuan, followed by 6.27 billion yuan in 2026 and 8.43 billion yuan in 2027 [3][9]. - The net asset return rate is projected to improve significantly, reaching 7% in 2025 and 45% in 2026 [3][9]. - The company’s cash flow per share is expected to turn positive in 2025, with projections of 15.74 yuan in 2026 and 18.80 yuan in 2027 [3][9].

Group 1: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of RMB 113.1 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, with a gross margin of 22.9%, marking a historical high [2] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 11.3 billion, also a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 80.9% [2] - The revenue from the smartphone and AIoT segment was RMB 84.1 billion, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, while the global smartphone shipment declined by 0.5% [2] - Revenue from the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation segment was RMB 29 billion, showing a significant growth of 199.2%, accounting for 25.6% of total revenue, and achieving operational profitability for the first time with a profit of RMB 700 million [2] - Overall, Xiaomi outperformed the industry in growth across its mobile, home appliance, and automotive sectors, despite uncertainties due to the weak domestic economy [2] Group 2: Baidu - Baidu's total revenue for Q3 was RMB 31.2 billion, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with core revenue also down by 7% to RMB 24.7 billion [3] - Operating loss was RMB 15.1 billion, but after excluding long-term asset impairment, operating profit was RMB 1.1 billion [3] - Despite the overall poor performance, Baidu's AI new business revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 10 billion, with intelligent cloud infrastructure revenue at RMB 4.2 billion, up 33% [3] - AI high-performance computing subscription revenue surged by 128%, and the autonomous driving service "萝卜快跑" saw orders reach 3.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 212% [3] - The rapid growth of AI applications in both the US and domestic internet companies indicates a strong long-term investment value in the AI sector [3] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - The demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries is driving significant increases in production plans for leading companies in 2026, with CATL's annual production guidance exceeding 1.1 TWh, a year-on-year increase of over 50% [6] - EVE Energy has raised its 2026 energy storage battery shipment target to over 100 GWh, nearly doubling the expected shipments for 2025 [6] - Guoxuan High-Tech is expected to achieve a production growth rate of 45%, while Zhongxin Innovation aims for nearly 60% growth [6] - The steady growth in domestic power battery demand and the explosive growth in the energy storage sector are activating the entire industry chain, leading to price increases in upstream raw materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate [6] - The high prosperity of the lithium battery-related industry is supported by multiple factors, including the transition to renewable energy, policy support, and technological advancements [6] Group 4: Leap Motor - Leap Motor achieved revenue of RMB 19.45 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.3%, and turned a profit with a net profit of RMB 150 million [7] - The company's explosive growth is attributed to three main drivers: increased self-research and vertical integration in the supply chain, optimization of product structure with high-margin models, and expansion into overseas markets [7] - The management anticipates a significant profit increase in Q4 due to year-end tail effects and expected carbon credit income of RMB 500 million [7] Group 5: Consumer Sector - The mini-program gaming sector has transitioned from explosive growth to a phase of high-quality steady growth, with market revenue expected to reach RMB 39.836 billion in 2024, nearly doubling year-on-year [9] - In the first half of 2025, revenue continued to show high prosperity, reaching RMB 23.276 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.2% [9] - The commercialization structure is continuously optimizing, with a significant cost advantage for mini-program games on iOS due to a reduced commission rate of 15% compared to the traditional 30% for apps [9] - This policy is expected to accelerate the trend of "App to Mini" and improve developer profit margins, further expanding growth opportunities in the industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxing Securities is optimistic about Leap Motor (09863), predicting a significant increase in sales due to high cost-performance models and expecting the company to reach a profitability inflection point by 2025. The company effectively controls costs through a fully self-developed technology platform and is rapidly expanding into overseas markets in collaboration with Stellantis, showcasing significant advantages in international expansion. A "Buy" rating is given with a target price of HKD 71.80 [1] Sales Growth and Profitability Inflection Point - Leap Motor has experienced rapid sales growth, with October sales reaching a historical high of 70,289 units (up 84% year-on-year) and cumulative sales for the first ten months at 465,805 units (up 125% year-on-year). The company is positioned as a mass-market brand in the 100,000-200,000 RMB price range, and the launch of models C10 and C16 in 2024 is expected to further boost sales. The introduction of models D19 and Lafa will enrich the product matrix and support continued sales growth. The company is anticipated to achieve profitability by 2025, becoming the second new force car manufacturer to do so [1][2] Overseas Market Development Advantages - Leap Motor is expanding its overseas market presence through a deep partnership with Stellantis, with plans to launch a new model annually from 2025 to 2027. Since entering the European market in September 2024, the company has seen rapid growth, with Q2 2025 sales in Europe increasing by 65.8% to 3,196 units, totaling 5,124 units in the first half of the year, ranking fifth among all domestic brands. The company is expected to surpass XPeng in total European sales this year. Leveraging Stellantis's global distribution network and brand strength, Leap Motor has a competitive edge in overseas distribution and manufacturing [2] Full-stack Self-research Technology Capability - Leap Motor possesses self-research and manufacturing capabilities across six core areas: vehicle architecture, electronic and electrical architecture, batteries, electric drives, intelligent cabins, and intelligent driving, which account for 65% of the vehicle manufacturing cost. The core technology architecture, LEAP series, has undergone multiple upgrades since its introduction in 2019. The company can maximize fixed asset cost allocation and enhance manufacturing scale efficiency through its fully self-research model, thereby reducing manufacturing costs and strengthening its core technological competitiveness [3] Investment Recommendations - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 71.80. Sales projections for Leap Motor from 2025 to 2027 are 578,528, 750,215, and 837,500 units, corresponding to revenues of CNY 62.9 billion, 78.02 billion, and 103.73 billion, respectively. The forecasted gross margins for the same period are 14.5%, 15.7%, and 16.8%. The company is expected to maintain an operating efficiency with a three-expense ratio of approximately 15%, with adjusted net profits projected at CNY 1.61 billion, 3.24 billion, and 6.58 billion. The valuation is based on a 1.2 times P/S ratio for 2026, higher than the average of comparable companies at 1.1 times [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxing Securities is optimistic about Leap Motor (09863) due to its rapid sales growth driven by high cost-performance models, expecting the company to reach a profitability inflection point by 2025. The company effectively controls costs through a fully self-developed technology platform and is rapidly expanding into overseas markets with the help of its partnership with Stellantis, showcasing significant advantages in international expansion. A "Buy" rating is initiated with a target price of HKD 71.80 [1] Group 1: Sales Growth and Profitability - Leap Motor has seen rapid sales growth, with October sales reaching a historical high of 70,289 units (up 84% year-on-year) and cumulative sales for the first ten months at 465,805 units (up 125% year-on-year). The company is positioned as a mass-market brand in the 100,000-200,000 RMB price range, with new models like C10 and C16 expected to further boost sales [1] - The release of models D19 and Lafa will enrich Leap Motor's product matrix and support continued sales growth. The company is anticipated to achieve profitability by 2025, becoming the second new force automaker to achieve full-year profitability [1] Group 2: Overseas Market Development - Leap Motor is expanding its overseas market presence through a deep partnership with Stellantis, with plans to launch a new model annually from 2025 to 2027. Since entering the European market in September 2024, the company has experienced rapid growth, with Q2 2025 European sales increasing by 65.8% to 3,196 units, totaling 5,124 units in the first half of the year, ranking fifth among all domestic brands [2] - The collaboration with Stellantis provides Leap Motor with significant advantages in overseas distribution and manufacturing, allowing for quicker penetration into international markets compared to other Chinese brands [2] Group 3: Self-Developed Technology Capabilities - Leap Motor possesses self-research and manufacturing capabilities across six core areas: vehicle architecture, electronic and electrical architecture, batteries, electric drives, intelligent cabins, and intelligent driving, which account for 65% of the vehicle manufacturing cost. The LEAP series technology architecture has undergone multiple upgrades since its introduction in 2019 [3] - The fully self-developed model allows Leap Motor to maximize the allocation of fixed asset costs and enhance manufacturing scale efficiency, thereby reducing overall manufacturing costs and strengthening its core technological competitiveness [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A "Buy" rating is initiated with a target price of HKD 71.80. Sales projections for Leap Motor from 2025 to 2027 are 578,528, 750,215, and 837,500 units, corresponding to revenues of RMB 62.9 billion, RMB 78.02 billion, and RMB 103.73 billion, respectively. The expected gross margins for the same period are 14.5%, 15.7%, and 16.8% [4] - The company is expected to maintain an operating expense ratio of approximately 15% to achieve efficient operational performance, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 1.61 billion, RMB 3.24 billion, and RMB 6.58 billion for the respective years [4] - The valuation is based on a 1.2 times price-to-sales ratio for 2026, which is above the average of comparable companies at 1.1 times [4]

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor has emerged as a leading player in the new energy vehicle market, achieving significant sales milestones and demonstrating a strong growth trajectory despite initial challenges [4][5]. Group 1: Development Stages - Leap Motor's development can be categorized into four stages: T (low-cost survival), C (cost-performance exchange for market share), B (expanding market base), and D (enhancing brand through technology and positioning) [9][11]. - The T stage relied heavily on the T03 model, while the C stage saw the introduction of models like C11 and C01, which helped the company transition into the competitive 100,000 to 200,000 yuan market [6][9]. - The B stage is marked by the introduction of B-series models, which further solidified Leap Motor's market position, although it raised concerns about relying on low pricing strategies [9][11]. Group 2: Product and Sales Performance - Leap Motor's sales data from December 2020 to October 2025 shows a steady increase, with October 2025 sales reaching 70,289 units, marking an 84.11% year-on-year growth [4][6]. - The T03 model has been a cornerstone of sales, while the C11 has been pivotal in establishing the brand's presence in the market [14][16]. - As of September 2025, the sales distribution among models indicates a healthy structure, with multiple models achieving sales of around 10,000 units per month [14][16]. Group 3: Channel Strategy - Leap Motor's channel strategy focuses on penetrating lower-tier cities, utilizing a mix of direct sales and dealership models to expand its reach [24][26]. - The company has established over 900 sales points, with a significant presence in second and third-tier cities, aligning with its product pricing strategy [25][26]. - The channel distribution reflects a deliberate strategy to target lower-income areas, which is consistent with Leap Motor's positioning as an economical brand [24][26]. Group 4: Future Directions - Leap Motor aims to enhance brand value, innovate technology, create blockbuster products, and accelerate international expansion as part of its strategic vision for the next decade [29][30]. - The introduction of models like D19 and Lafa5 is intended to elevate the brand's market positioning and appeal to different consumer segments [30][31]. - The partnership with Stellantis is expected to facilitate Leap Motor's entry into international markets, with a rapid expansion of overseas channels [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and current state of the "new forces in car manufacturing" in China, particularly focusing on the "Four Little Dragons" (NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor) and their journey towards profitability amidst a competitive market landscape [4][6][14]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The term "new forces in car manufacturing" was once a positive label, but over time, it has lost its luster due to various challenges and negative perceptions in the industry [4][6]. - The current market is characterized by intense competition, leading to a significant number of failures among new entrants, with notable companies like WM Motor, Aiways, and others falling off the radar [18][20]. Group 2: Performance of the "Four Little Dragons" - NIO has made significant strides towards profitability, with successful sales of its new models, the L90 and the new ES8, indicating a potential turnaround [9][10]. - Xpeng, despite facing challenges from price wars, has managed to maintain a solid sales base and is expected to achieve profitability in the near future [12]. - Li Auto, having been the first among the new forces to achieve profitability, is currently navigating some difficulties but is expected to return to a profitable trajectory [14]. - Leap Motor has emerged as a surprising leader in sales, with a delivery volume exceeding 66,000 units in September, showcasing its effective market positioning [14]. Group 3: Future Challenges and Opportunities - The article emphasizes that the upcoming period will be critical for the "Four Little Dragons" as they transition from survival to thriving in a competitive environment [7][15]. - The need for precision and efficiency in product launches and marketing strategies is highlighted, as the market becomes increasingly unforgiving [15]. - The potential for revival among previously failed companies, such as WM Motor and Neta, indicates that the market still holds significant opportunities despite the challenges [22][26]. Group 4: Conclusion and Reflection - The article concludes that the new forces in car manufacturing must bid farewell to their past struggles to embrace a more promising future, suggesting a shift in focus towards sustainable growth and innovation [27].

Core Insights - The automotive market in September experienced both month-on-month and year-on-year growth, with retail sales reaching 2.241 million units, a 6.3% increase year-on-year and an 11.0% increase month-on-month [1] - Domestic brands captured two-thirds of the market share, with retail sales of 1.5 million units, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase and a 12.9% month-on-month increase [2] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) and exports significantly contributed to the growth of domestic brands, with NEV penetration among domestic brands reaching 78.1% [2] Domestic Brands Performance - Domestic brands achieved a retail market share of 66.9% in September, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a cumulative market share of 64.8% for the first nine months of the year, an increase of 5.9 percentage points [2] - BYD led the domestic brands but experienced its first year-on-year decline in sales since March 2024, with September sales at 396,200 units, down 5.52% [2][4] - Geely and Chery are gaining market share in the NEV sector, with Geely's sales reaching 273,100 units in September, a 35.24% year-on-year increase, and Chery's sales at 255,600 units, an 8.90% increase [5] Joint Venture and Luxury Brands - Joint venture brands faced challenges, with retail sales of 490,000 units in September, down 6% year-on-year, despite a 4% month-on-month increase [6] - Luxury brands saw a slight year-on-year decline, with retail sales of 240,000 units, down 1%, but a 16% month-on-month increase [6] - The market share of German brands decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 14.3% in September, indicating a shift towards domestic brands [6] New Energy Vehicle Market - The penetration rate of NEVs among domestic brands remains high at 70.1%, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 2.3 percentage points [2] - New energy vehicles accounted for 6.6% of joint venture brands and 40% of luxury brands in September [6] Emerging Players - New energy vehicle startups showed significant growth, with Leap Motor leading the segment with approximately 66,700 units delivered in September, a 97% year-on-year increase [8]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic new energy vehicle market experienced significant growth in September, with most brands achieving both year-on-year and month-on-month increases in delivery volumes [1][2][3] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is traditionally a peak season for the automotive market, supported by government policies for vehicle scrappage and trade-in incentives [1][5] - The implementation of more targeted and precise scrappage policies is expected to positively impact market expectations [1][5] Group 2: Company Performance - Leap Motor achieved a record delivery of 66,657 vehicles in September, a 97% year-on-year increase, with a total of 395,500 vehicles delivered in the first nine months of the year [2] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 52,916 vehicles in September, becoming the second-largest seller, with strong performance from models like the AITO Wenjie [2] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 41,581 vehicles in September, a 95% increase year-on-year, with plans to expand into the range-extended electric vehicle market [3] - NIO delivered 34,749 vehicles in September, a 64% year-on-year increase, with cumulative sales reaching 201,200 vehicles in the first nine months [3] - Ideal Auto reported a September delivery of 33,951 vehicles, a 36.8% year-on-year decline, but showed signs of recovery month-on-month [3] - Xiaomi Auto's delivery exceeded 40,000 vehicles in September, marking a historical high, with a backlog of orders indicating strong demand [4] Group 3: Policy Impact - As of September 10, 8.3 million applications for the vehicle trade-in program were submitted, indicating strong consumer interest [5] - The adjustment of trade-in policies reflects a shift from broad subsidies to more targeted support for specific groups, enhancing the efficiency of subsidy funds [5][6] - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in September is expected to reach approximately 2.15 million units, with a 6.5% month-on-month increase and a 2.0% year-on-year increase [6]