证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 港股通 销量连创新高，首次半年度盈利 2025 年 8 月 21 日│中国香港 乘用车 公司发布半年报，25H1 营收 242.50 亿元（yoy+174.15%），归母净利 0.33 亿元（同比转正），扣非净利-0.58 亿元（yoy-97.47%）；Q2 营收 142.30 亿元（yoy+165.48%、qoq+42.01%），归母净利+1.63 亿元（24Q2 和 25Q1 分别为-12.00/-1.30 亿）。考虑到公司销量强力持续向上&看好 ABCD 四大 平台车型竞争力&海外市场拓展加速&战略合作和零部件业务等增厚业绩， 我们预计公司 25-27 年营收将保持高速增长并逐步释放盈利弹性，我们本次 上调公司盈利预测并上调目标价。维持买入评级。 收入：销量连创新高&结构优化，B/C 平台销量占比提升 1）25Q2 公司实现销量 13.4 万辆，同环比+152%/+53%，7 月销量再次新 高破 5 万，连续 5 个月位列新势力销冠；2）销量结构持续优化，25Q2 B/C 平台销量占比 57.6%/24.4%，价格较低的 T03 占比 18.0%，同环比-7. ...

Group 1 - The Zhejiang Provincial Disabled Persons Welfare Foundation launched the third phase of the technology assistance project for limb-disabled individuals, aiming to recruit 100 beneficiaries for free installation of smart bionic legs [1][3] - Leap Motor, as a charitable donor for the project, encourages limb-disabled individuals in need to apply through official channels, aligning with its mission of providing high-quality, well-configured electric vehicles through continuous technological innovation [1][3] - The project addresses the dual challenges of limited functionality of traditional prosthetics and the high cost of smart prosthetics, promoting a collaborative model involving government, charitable enterprises, and technology companies [3] Group 2 - Leap Motor, founded in 2015, is a technology-driven smart electric vehicle company headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, focusing on the design, research, and manufacturing of electric vehicles and related technologies [3] - The company has a self-research and manufacturing ratio of 65% in its core components, having introduced several industry-leading technologies, including the first eight-in-one electric drive and the first mass-produced CTC battery chassis integration technology [3] - In 2023, Stellantis Group invested in Leap Motor, and in May 2024, they established a joint venture to expand into international markets [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 81.15 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a strong new car cycle in 2025, with a sales target of 500,000 to 600,000 units for the year, and aims to achieve profitability [2][13][15]. - The company has reported a significant year-on-year sales increase of 161% for the first five months of 2025, reaching 173,658 units [2][15]. - The gross margin has reached historical highs of 13.3% in Q4 2024 and 14.9% in Q1 2025, driven by scale effects, sales structure optimization, and cost management [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth - The company aims for annual sales of 500,000 to 600,000 units and has achieved a cumulative sales increase of 161% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025 [2][15]. - The company is launching new models across four platforms (A, B, C, D) to support sales growth, with the B platform expected to introduce three new models in 2025 [2][16][18]. Channel Expansion and Operations - The company is expanding its channel network with a focus on efficiency and profitability for dealers, achieving a channel profitability rate of over 80% in 2024 [3][17]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has 756 sales outlets covering 279 cities, with plans to exceed 1,000 outlets by the end of the year [3][17]. International Expansion and Strategic Partnerships - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with a target of over 550 overseas channels and an export goal of 50,000 to 60,000 units in 2025 [4][20]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, including collaborations with Stellantis and Peugeot Citroën, which are expected to contribute to revenue and gross margin [4][22][25]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 68.71 billion, RMB 91.40 billion, and RMB 116.66 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive in 2025 [5][23]. - The company is assigned a price-to-sales (PS) target of 1.5 times for 2025, reflecting a premium valuation due to its strong new car cycle and strategic initiatives [5][23].

Summary of Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing - **Market Focus**: Mid- to high-end segments of China's NEV market, with a price range of Rmb150,000-300,000 [9] Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Price Competition and Sales Strategy - Management acknowledges the escalation of price competition as largely expected, though it occurred sooner than anticipated by some investors [1][2] - Leapmotor has implemented additional discounts of Rmb2,000-3,000 on models C16 and C11 to expedite inventory clearance, with no further price cuts expected [1][2] - The company aims for Q2 2025 sales of 130,000-140,000 units and a full-year target of 500,000-600,000 units, with a margin of 10-11% [2] Product Launches and Production Plans - Upcoming product launches include: - Sedan B10 in June/July 2025 - Hatchback B05 in October/November 2025 - Facelifts for models C10, C16, and C11 in May, June, and July 2025, respectively [2] - Leapmotor plans to localize production in Europe by mid-2026, focusing on A & B platform models for local manufacturing [1][3] International Market Expansion - The company targets an export volume of 50,000-60,000 units in 2025, with Europe expected to contribute two-thirds of this volume [3] - Key growth drivers for the overseas market include: - Launch of B10 featuring both BEV and EREV powertrains - Expansion of retail stores from 450 to 550, with European stores increasing from 350 to 450 [3] - Collaboration with Stellantis for corporate car programs in Europe [3] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Leapmotor's stock is currently trading at 1.1x 2025E P/S, compared to 1.3x for Li Auto, 0.6x for Nio, and 1.8x for XPeng [4] - The company has a market capitalization of HK$80.1 billion (approximately US$10.2 billion) [5] - Revenue projections show significant growth from Rmb12.4 billion in 2022 to Rmb47.2 billion in 2025E [7] Risks and Challenges - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand, moderating competition due to favorable policies, and faster execution in overseas markets [10] - Downside risks involve weaker-than-expected demand, increased competition, and potential reductions in government subsidies for NEVs [11] - The new energy vehicle sector faces risks such as changes in government policies, declining subsidies, new market entrants, and potential overcapacity in the battery industry [12] Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - The current 12-month rating for Leapmotor is "Sell" with a price target of HK$25.00, indicating a forecast stock return of -56.1% [5][8] - The stock price as of May 27, 2025, is HK$56.90, with a 52-week range of HK$65.80-19.54 [5] Conclusion Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology is navigating a competitive landscape in the EV market with strategic pricing, product launches, and international expansion plans. However, the company faces significant risks that could impact its growth trajectory and financial performance.

Core Viewpoint - Leapmotor has achieved significant growth in Q1, with revenue nearly doubling year-on-year, surpassing 10 billion yuan, and achieving a historical high gross margin of 15% despite being in a traditionally slow sales season [4][5]. Financial Performance - Leapmotor's Q1 revenue reached over 10 billion yuan, marking a nearly 100% year-on-year increase [4]. - The gross margin improved to 15%, driven by strategic cooperation income of approximately 300 million yuan, contributing around 200 million yuan to gross profit [4]. - Excluding the impact of cooperation, the actual gross margin was 13.3%, which still exceeded expectations and remained stable compared to the previous quarter [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - Leapmotor has consistently outperformed market expectations for three consecutive quarters, with an increasing market share in the new energy vehicle sector [5]. - The company aims to achieve annual sales of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, targeting a gross margin of 10-12% and breakeven for the year [5][10]. - Leapmotor's sales structure has shifted, with a notable increase in the sales ratio of lower-priced models, contributing to a rise in average vehicle price by 3,000 yuan to 114,000 yuan [4]. Product Development and Sales Strategy - Leapmotor plans to launch several new models, including the B05 at the Chengdu Auto Show in August and updates to the C series in June and July [6]. - The company has set a sales target of 130,000 to 140,000 vehicles for Q2, translating to monthly sales of approximately 43,000 to 47,000 units [6]. - Leapmotor has become the sales champion among new car manufacturers in April, delivering 41,000 vehicles [6]. Expansion Plans - The company aims to expand its retail network to over 1,000 stores this year, enhancing its presence in key automotive markets [8]. - Leapmotor has revised its overseas sales target to 50,000 to 80,000 units, up from the initial estimate of 50,000 to 60,000 units, due to strong early performance [8][9]. - The company is accelerating its overseas channel development, with a net increase of 100 European channels in Q1, leveraging Stellantis' brand recognition for market entry [9]. Production and Supply Chain - Leapmotor is addressing battery production capacity issues that have affected the recent rollout of the B10 model, with expectations for resolution by late May [10]. - The company anticipates that the upcoming B01 model's launch and delivery will not be impacted by supply chain constraints, allowing for greater contribution from the B series to overall sales [10]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that Leapmotor has at least 30% growth potential in market valuation, positioning the company to reach a market capitalization of over 100 billion yuan [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached RMB 12 billion, representing an annual increase of approximately 187% [5] - The gross profit margin in Q1 was 14.9%, up from 13.3% in Q4 2024, attributed to increased sales and an optimized portfolio [5][17] - The net loss for Q1 was about RMB 130 million, a significant reduction from approximately RMB 1 billion in the previous year [6] - The company reported RMB 25.7 billion in cash reserves, indicating strong capital availability [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The delivery volume of C cars in Q1 reached about 60,000 units, contributing to a total of 700,000 units delivered [6] - The newly released Dayton model achieved sales of 18,000 units shortly after its launch [7] - R&D expenses increased to RMB 800 million, reflecting a 52% year-on-year rise due to greater investment in labor and R&D costs [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company plans to expand its retail presence, targeting over 1,000 stores, with 800 stores already established in Q1 [59] - The company aims to penetrate second-tier cities, expecting to add over 80 cities of second level or below [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing investments in smart driving technology, with anticipated investments exceeding RMB 1 billion [11] - Strategic cooperation with Stellantis aims to localize assembly and manufacturing in Malaysia and Europe by the end of 2025 [15] - The company emphasizes technological innovation and social responsibility, having received an ISG International certificate for its environmental, social, and governance performance [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining robust sales in Q2, expecting sales to reach between 130,000 to 140,000 units [25] - The company aims for annual sales targets of 500,000 to 600,000 units, with a gross profit margin close to 10% [26] - Management acknowledged potential slight declines in gross profit margin in Q2 due to the launch of new models but remains optimistic about achieving annual objectives [24][26] Other Important Information - The company has expanded its overseas operations, ranking top in export volume among competitors [14] - The integration of Qualcomm chips into the company's architecture has enhanced its product offerings and competitiveness [10][9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for gross profit margin in Q2? - Management indicated that while Q1 performance was robust, a slight decline in gross profit margin is expected in Q2 due to new model launches [24][21] Question: What is the percentage of revenue from strategic cooperation? - Specific data on revenue from strategic cooperation was not disclosed, but management noted that gross profit margins for complete vehicles in Q1 were similar to those in 2024 [27][28] Question: How will the company handle tariffs in overseas markets? - The company plans to follow market-based pricing strategies and prioritize market share over immediate profits in the early stages of international expansion [46][47] Question: What is the target for channel stores? - The company aims to exceed 1,000 stores, with a focus on ensuring dealer profitability and quality in channel development [59][60] Question: How does the company plan to address battery supply pressures? - Management stated that battery supply issues are expected to be resolved by May, ensuring sufficient supply for production [62]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [20]. Core Views - NIO's Firefly model has exceeded expectations at the auto show, with potential monthly sales of 4,000-5,000 units, which could increase total sales to 20,000-25,000 units, replicating the growth path of XPeng's Mona M03 [3][4]. - SAIC is expected to see a structural change in joint venture brands, with new models from SAIC Volkswagen and General Motors anticipated to be turning points next year [3][5]. - Leap Motor's sales surpassed 40,000 units in April, with an annual target of 500,000-550,000 units, supported by the delivery of C10/C16 and new models [3][6]. - Great Wall Motors experienced a profit decline in Q1 due to short-term factors, but strong sales of fuel vehicles and a successful pricing strategy for new energy vehicles are expected to drive recovery [3][9]. - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers like BYD and XPeng, as well as companies involved in intelligent trends and state-owned enterprise reforms [3]. Summary by Sections Complete Vehicles: NIO, SAIC, Leap Motor, Great Wall - NIO's Firefly model shows strong potential for sales growth in China, with new models and self-developed technology expected to enhance market confidence [4]. - SAIC is witnessing a structural change in joint ventures, with new product launches expected to halt the decline in market performance [5]. - Leap Motor's sales are projected to reach 500,000-550,000 units in 2025, with a focus on cost control and overseas expansion [6][8]. - Great Wall Motors is expected to recover from short-term profit declines, with strong sales in fuel vehicles and new energy models driving growth [9]. Components: Fuda, Shuanghuan, Yinlun, Jifeng, JuYi, Baolong - Fuda's Q1 profit doubled year-on-year, focusing on core businesses like crankshafts and electric drives [10]. - Shuanghuan's Q1 profit increased by 25%, with steady growth in core business despite a decline in non-core operations [10]. - Yinlun's Q1 profit rose by 11%, with strong growth in digital energy and improved profitability in North America [10]. - Jifeng's Q1 profit exceeded 100 million yuan for the first time since 2021, indicating successful overseas integration [11]. - Baolong is showing signs of a performance turnaround, with improved profitability expected from structural adjustments [13].

Core Insights - The April sales data for various new energy vehicle companies shows a continued upward trend for both traditional brands and new car manufacturers, indicating a robust market performance during the holiday period [1] Traditional Brands' Performance - BYD sold over 380,100 new energy vehicles in April, with passenger car sales reaching 372,615 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. The main brands, Dynasty and Ocean, contributed over 340,000 units, growing by 16.5% [2] - Geely's total sales reached 234,112 units in April, a 53% increase year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales reached 125,563 units, up 144%, accounting for 54% of total sales, marking a historical high [4] - Chery Group's total sales were 200,760 units, a 10.3% increase. New energy vehicle sales reached 61,223 units, up 85.5% [6] - Great Wall Motors' wholesale sales were 100,061 units, a 5.55% increase, with new energy vehicle sales at 28,813 units, up 28.42% [8] New Forces in the Market - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 41,039 units in April, a 172% year-on-year increase, driven by its competitive pricing strategy and new model launches [9] - XPeng Motors maintained a delivery volume of over 30,000 units, reaching 35,045 units, a 273% increase, supported by the popularity of models like MONA M03 and P7+ [11] - Li Auto delivered 33,939 new vehicles, a 31.6% increase, with a total of 126,800 units delivered in the first four months, achieving 18% of its annual target [13] - Xiaomi Auto delivered over 28,000 units in April, indicating stable consumer demand, with new models expected to drive future growth [13] Other Notable Performances - GAC Aion's sales reached 28,301 units, showing year-on-year growth but a decline compared to the previous month [15] - Lantu Motors achieved sales of 10,019 units, a 150% increase, with plans to launch an upgraded model soon [17] - NIO delivered 23,900 vehicles in April, a 53% year-on-year increase, benefiting from promotional policies [17]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in the first quarter of 2025 showed signs of recovery driven by the "two new" policies, with significant sales growth from both new energy vehicle manufacturers and traditional automakers [2][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, BYD achieved a total sales volume of 1,000,800 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 59.81% [5]. - Traditional automakers like SAIC Group and Changan Automobile also reported positive growth, with SAIC's sales reaching 944,900 units (up 13.3%) and Changan's at 705,200 units (up 1.89%) [4][6]. - New energy vehicle sales were particularly strong, with companies like Geely and Chery showing significant increases, with Geely's sales up 48% and Chery's up 17.1% [7][8]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Trends - New energy vehicles are becoming a critical factor for traditional automakers, with BYD leading the market and planning to achieve annual sales of 5.5 million units in 2025, including over 800,000 units in overseas markets [5][6]. - The competition among new energy vehicle manufacturers is intensifying, with companies like Xpeng and Li Auto also reporting substantial growth in deliveries, with Xpeng's sales increasing by 331% [10][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies - The price war in the automotive market has shown signs of cooling, with fewer models undergoing significant price cuts compared to previous months [15][16]. - The average price reduction for new vehicles in early 2025 was around 30,000 yuan, with electric vehicles seeing an average price drop of 39,000 yuan [16][17]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers are focusing on value-added strategies rather than direct price cuts, emphasizing features like intelligent driving capabilities [17][18].

Financial Overview - The company reported a revenue of 14.4 billion in Q2 2023, with a year-on-year decrease of 28% [1] - Gross profit was -1.1 billion, with a gross margin of -7.8% [1] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was -11.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 78.5% [1] Delivery and Sales Performance - In 2024, the total delivery volume reached 293,724 units, a year-on-year increase of 163.8% [2] - The C series accounted for 76.6% of total sales, with cumulative deliveries of 225,071 units, up 112.9% from 2023 [2] - In January and February 2025, cumulative sales reached 50,457 units, a growth of 167.8% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Product and Technology Innovations - The company launched new models C10 and C16 based on a new platform in 2024, achieving significant safety certifications and design awards [3] - The LEAP3.0 central control technology was successfully applied, leading to strong market performance with monthly sales exceeding 30,000 units in Q4 2024 [3] Future Product Plans - The company plans to launch three new models on the B platform in 2025, with the B10 model starting pre-sales on March 10, 2025 [10] - The C platform will see updated versions of C10 and C16 in the first half of 2025 [10] Global Expansion Strategy - A joint venture with Stellantis was established in May 2024 to enhance overseas market presence, with over 400 sales and service points globally by the end of 2024 [8] - The company aims for overseas sales of 50,000 to 60,000 units in 2025 [9] Strategic Collaborations - A strategic cooperation memorandum was signed with China FAW Group on March 3, 2025, focusing on joint development of new energy vehicles and component collaboration [9] R&D and Investment in Smart Driving - The smart driving team is set to expand from 500 to over 600 members in 2025, with an investment of over 800 million in smart driving technologies [12] - The company aims to achieve full integration of urban NOA by the end of 2025 [5]