行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 02 月 03 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《重点公司 Q4 业绩强兑现，特斯拉再次 强调 AI 转型——2026/1/26-2026/2/1 汽 车周报》 2026/02/02 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 再看东南亚；长城汽车业绩快报 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W143） 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 核心风险：原材料价格波动风险，地缘政治风险，行业复苏不及预期 汽车 zhufz@swsresearch.com ⚫ 再看东南亚：东南亚新能源汽车市场相较之前发生了显著变化。从核心数据来看，新加 坡、马来西亚、泰国三国的中国新能源车品牌销量及渗透率增速超出预期，其中一个重 要原因是 2025 年马来、泰国市场中国新能源品牌降价的推动。2026 年以来，东南亚市 ...

2026 年 01 月 29 日 降盛科技更新、四季报前瞻 周一刻钟，大事快评（W142） 本期投资提示: 站玩人行业 相关研究 《永达汽车、天准科技、隆盛、银轮、天 -一周一刻钟，大事快评 成、福达—— (W141)》 2026/01/21 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务品 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 隆盛科技更新：①商业航天领域，公司聚焦核心部件供应并深耕关键客户，成功切入星 ● 座产业链,构筑业务增长核心。子公司微研中佳的产品覆盖卫星能源与控制模块核心部 件，已配套航天科技等卫星及载荷公司、间接服务蓝箭航天等火箭企业，且产品顺利切 入 GW 星座等星座运营商产业链。 ②谐波减速器领域，公司 2026 年产能将达 20 万套， 同时积极拓展商业航天新场景。公司子公司蔚瀚智能主导该产品研产，聚焦人形机器人 等场景并推出轻量化、一体化关节模组定制化解决方案，同时积极拓展商业航天新场 景，已启动商业航天谐波减速器研发并与相关 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the automotive sector compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is gradually returning to its profit center, with a strong focus on overseas expansion [1]. - In Q4 2025, total vehicle production and sales reached 10.186 million and 10.023 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 3.9% and 1.7% [4]. - Domestic retail share of independent brands reached 66.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 13.2% year-on-year [4]. - The average industry discount rate decreased by 1.33 percentage points to 12.28% in Q4 2025, indicating reduced terminal discounts [4]. - Traditional raw material prices saw a decline, while new energy raw material prices increased, impacting supply chain profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Vehicle Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, passenger vehicle production and sales were 9.018 million and 8.845 million units, with year-on-year changes of +2.2% and -0.3% respectively [4]. - Commercial vehicle production and sales reached 1.168 million and 1.178 million units, with year-on-year increases of +19.4% and +20.0% [4]. - Exports of vehicles in Q4 2025 totaled 2.147 million units, a significant year-on-year increase of 39.8%, with new energy vehicles showing remarkable growth [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the leading position of independent brands in the market, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle sales [4]. - The report notes a divergence in profitability among automakers due to varying new vehicle release schedules and the suspension of trade-in subsidies [4]. Profit Forecasts - The report provides profit forecasts for key automotive companies, indicating significant growth for companies like Jifeng and Dongfang, while others like BYD and Li Auto are expected to see declines [6][8]. - Specific profit growth rates for Q4 2025 show a wide range, with some companies experiencing over 600% growth, while others face substantial losses [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from AI integration and overseas business support, such as BYD and Geely [4]. - It also emphasizes the importance of companies with strong performance in the supply chain, particularly in the context of rising raw material prices [4].

福达股份：可交债释放积极信号，业务确定性支撑估值抬升。公司已发行可交债，转股价17.5 元；2026 年业绩确定性强，核心优势为产能稀缺供不应求，后续产能扩张稳步推进。机器人端，长坂系摆线针轮 减速器国标起草单位，海外丝杠客户验厂进展值得关注；海外客户背书将完善客户逻辑，缓解市场对其 客户结构的担忧。 天成自控：低空经济核心标的，静待产业催化落地。公司具备长期布局价值；低空经济端，发力客户卡 位与技术认证，绑定沃飞、峰飞等核心客户，抗坠落检测认证落地，座椅拿证进度行业领先。低空经济 领域当前关注度较低，行业放量周期下，公司先发卡位优势有望支撑其斩获主要市场份额。 投资分析意见：基于AI 外溢+反内卷+需求修复主线，整车端：①首先看好ai 外溢的智能化和高端化方 向，关注新势力车企小鹏、蔚来、理想、华为系的江淮、北汽等。②有海外业务支撑盈利总量的比亚 迪、吉利、零跑等。③国央企改革带来的突破性变化，关注上汽、东风。零部件端：机器人及数据中心 液冷等有望从主题转向产业趋势，关注业绩有α支撑确定性，同时有拔估值潜力的公司，①智能化关注 核心tier1，德赛西威、经纬恒润、科博达、伯特利等。②中大市值白马关注，银轮、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an increase in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies with good supply-demand dynamics and price transmission capabilities, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers with model cycles [2]. - The report notes that the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 123,000 units in the last week of December, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the recently implemented green consumption policies, which aim to support the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhance the automotive industry's supply chain [11][12]. Market Updates - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 638.35 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 11.27%. The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% during the week [2][13]. - The report indicates that the automotive industry index's growth was lower than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [13]. - The report lists significant stock movements, with 201 stocks rising and 68 falling, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the automotive sector [19]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 403rd batch of new vehicle approvals, featuring several notable models from various manufacturers [3][4]. - The report discusses the rising cost pressures in the automotive industry due to increasing memory prices, which are becoming a significant factor affecting profitability [6][8]. - The report mentions a strategic cooperation agreement between CATL and NIO, focusing on battery technology and market collaboration [36]. Financial Metrics - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's 14.41 [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a flat-rate model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands will be less affected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to reshape the sales structure of NEVs in 2026, with a decline in demand for low-end models and a relative advantage for mid-to-high-end models [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The new subsidy policy will lead to a 19% reduction for Geely and a 14% reduction for BYD, while companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a smaller impact of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [2]. - The demand for A0 and A00 level low-end models, which previously relied heavily on subsidies, is expected to decrease significantly [2]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - Xiaopeng Motors delivered nearly 430,000 vehicles in 2025, a 126% year-on-year increase. However, the average selling price (ASP) dropped from approximately 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025 due to changes in product mix [3]. - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 597,000 vehicles in 2025, doubling from 290,000 in 2024. The company plans to launch two high-end models in 2026 and aims for a sales target of 1 million vehicles [4]. - Great Wall Motors sold 1.32 million vehicles in 2025, with a 7% year-on-year growth. The company has set a sales target of 1.8 million vehicles for 2026, reflecting a 40% increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies with advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers like Yinchuan, Fuda, and Shuanghuan, which are expected to benefit from the new subsidy policies [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a "one-size-fits-all" model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands are largely unaffected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to significantly reshape the sales structure of new energy vehicles in 2026, with demand for low-end models likely to decline, benefiting mid-to-high-end models and companies with higher average selling prices (ASP) [3]. Summary by Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The 2026 subsidy policy will lead to a reduction in subsidies for companies with a higher share of low-end models, with Geely facing a 19% reduction and BYD a 14% reduction. In contrast, companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a reduction of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [3][4]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - **Xiaopeng Motors**: Projected delivery volume for 2025 is approximately 430,000 units, a 126% increase year-on-year. December deliveries were 37,500 units, showing a decline due to subsidy reductions. The ASP is expected to drop from nearly 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025. Xiaopeng plans to launch seven dual-power models in 2026, which are expected to benefit from the policy changes [4][5]. - **Leap Motor**: Expected to deliver 597,000 units in 2025, doubling from 290,000 units in 2024. The growth is driven by new models and overseas market expansion. Despite the introduction of lower-priced models, Leap Motor has maintained its gross margin due to effective cost control. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [5][6]. - **Great Wall Motors**: Anticipated sales for 2025 are 1.32 million units, a 7% increase. The company has optimized its internal structure, with new models compensating for declines in older models. The sales target for 2026 is set at 1.8 million units, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth expectation [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies that have advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as key Tier 1 suppliers. It also recommends second-hand car companies and component manufacturers with low valuations and growth potential, such as Yinchuan, Fuda, and others [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - Recent implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been completed, with both existing and new policies continuing to exert influence, leading to a gradual stabilization of prices and a potential mild increase in the price center [1] Economic Indicators - CPI is expected to gradually recover from low levels, characterized by strong food prices, weak energy prices, and stable core prices [1] - A slight rebound in pork prices is anticipated due to reduced output plans from major pig farming companies and the arrival of the southern cured meat season [1] - Decreased supply of fruits and vegetables due to falling temperatures is likely to lead to price increases [1] Policy Impact - The year-on-year decline in food CPI is expected to narrow in November due to a high base effect from the previous year [1] - "Anti-involution" measures are expected to continue supporting automobile prices, while industrial consumer goods prices are likely to improve year-on-year, and service prices will remain stable [1] Market Outlook - With continued macro policy support and a recovery in market confidence, the overall price center is projected to rise moderately [1] - CPI is anticipated to enter a mild upward channel, while the year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to continue narrowing, with month-on-month figures likely to maintain a weak balance [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" as of July 16, 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The current cycle is nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain robust in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The consumption sector has shown resilience after two years of recovery [4]. - On the supply side, global chemical capital growth is projected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline, nearing a bottom by Q2 2024, while fixed asset investments maintain a growth rate exceeding 15% [4]. - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with inventory growth turning positive by Q3 2024. However, the overall price and profit levels in the chemical industry are expected to face pressure throughout the year [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3]. Price Indicators - The report includes PPI, PPIRM, CCPI, and price differentials for chemical products, highlighting recent trends and historical positions [3]. Supply-Side Indicators - Key metrics include capacity utilization rates, energy consumption, fixed asset investments, inventory levels, and ongoing construction projects [3]. Import and Export Indicators - The report analyzes the contribution of import and export values to the industry [3]. Downstream Industry Performance - The report examines performance indicators for downstream sectors such as PMI, real estate, home appliances, automotive, and textiles [3]. Global Macro and End-Market Indicators - It includes global procurement manager indices, GDP year-on-year changes, civil construction starts, consumer confidence indices, and automotive sales [3]. Global Chemical Product Prices and Differentials - The report provides insights into the pricing and differentials of chemical raw materials, intermediate products, and sub-industries like resins and fibers [3]. Global Industry Economic Indicators - It covers sales revenue changes, profitability, growth potential, debt repayment capacity, operational efficiency, and per-share metrics [3]. Recommendations for Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply logic, such as refrigerants, phosphates, and amino acids, while also highlighting sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics like organic silicon [7]. - Key recommended companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyue Group for refrigerants, and Wanhua Chemical for MDI [7]. Market Trends and Strategic Directions - The report emphasizes the shift from a cost-efficiency-driven global investment model to a stability and security-oriented regional cooperation model, suggesting investment opportunities in both domestic and international markets [7]. - Companies recommended for investment include Lite-On Technology, Ruile New Materials, and Wanrun Co. in the OLED materials sector [7].