证券研究报告 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 基础化工 化工行业运行指标跟踪-2025年5月数据 作者： 分析师 唐婕 SAC执业证书编号：S1110519070001 分析师 张峰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110518080008 分析师 郭建奇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110522110002 分析师 邢颜凝 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523070006 分析师 杨滨钰 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524070008 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 行业评级： 上次评级： 中性 中性 1 维持 2025年07月16日 （ 评级） 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 1、行业估值指标、景气度指标：化工行业综合景气指数；工业增加值 2、价格指标：PPI\PPIRM\CCPI、价格价差（化工品价格走势及最新历史分位） 3、供给端指标：产能利用率、能耗、固定资产投资、存货、在建工程情况 4、进出口指标：进出口价值贡献度拆分 5、下游行业运行指标：PMI、地产、家电、汽车、纺服 6、行业经济效益指标：三大行业经济效益指标 7、全球宏观和终端市场指标：采购经理指数、GDP同比、民用建筑开工、消 ...

2025 年 6 月 16 日 行业研究 中东地缘冲突升级，看好油运景气回升 ——交通运输行业周报第42期（20250609-20250615） 要点 中东地缘政治风险升级， VLCC 运价跳涨。本周中东地缘风险加剧，以色列 于 6 月 13 日发动对伊朗的打击，袭击了伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军 事设施相关的目标，造成了伊朗多名高级别核科学家、高级军事指挥官死 亡；伊朗对以色列实施报复，发射弹道导弹打击以色列军事中心、空军基地 等目标。截至 6 月 15 日，双方冲突仍在持续，军事行动目标已包含能源设 施，以色列袭击了德黑兰的沙赫兰油库和两座天然气加工厂，导致全球最大 气田南帕尔斯气田的一座海上平台生产停止，原定于 6 月 15 日举行的伊核 谈判已取消。中东地区地缘政治风险全面升级，造成 VLCC 运价跳涨，根据 Clarksons，VLCC 中东-中国航线的运价从本周早些时候的约 40 ws 点上涨 至周五的 58.5ws 点。 原油运输风险上升叠加对伊原油制裁可能性，油运景气有望回升。本轮伊以 冲突对原油和油运市场的影响包括：（1）地缘冲突加剧导致原油运输风险 加剧。2025 年至今，全球约 11% ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beijing Institute of Technology Navigation Control Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "理工导航"), has experienced significant growth in revenue and cash flow in 2024, driven by the recovery of the industry chain and an increase in product orders and market share [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an annual revenue of approximately 170.8 million yuan, representing a nearly 700% year-on-year increase [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 17.58 million yuan, showing a nearly 400% year-on-year growth [2]. - For the period from January to April 2025, the company announced large signed orders exceeding 241 million yuan, indicating a strong performance outlook [2]. Product Development and Market Position - The company has established four main inertial navigation system products, being the sole supplier for related supporting equipment [3]. - The company is actively developing multiple new products in collaboration with other units, with progress expected to accelerate based on end-user demands [3]. - The company is also expanding into the aviation sector, civilian markets, and international military trade markets while consolidating its core business [3]. Industry Outlook - The military industry is expected to see strong demand recovery extending to 2027, particularly in precision-guided weapons, which are anticipated to be a strong growth area [3]. - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on market expectations, emphasizing confidence in its technological product advantages and long-term value [3]. Corporate Governance and Investor Relations - Since its listing, the company has maintained a stable shareholding structure and continuously improved corporate governance [4]. - The company aims to enhance performance and investor engagement to fulfill its responsibilities as a listed entity and improve investor satisfaction [4].

行 业 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 05 月 12 日 研 究 建筑材料 公积金贷款利率下调，后续增量政策值得期待 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 7 日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上宣布，降 准 0.5 个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿，并降低政策利率 0.1 个 百分点；下调个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，5 年期以上首套房 利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整。金融监管总局局长李 云泽表示，1）加快出台房地产开发、个人住房、城市更新等贷款管理办法； 2）房地产"白名单"贷款审批通过金额增至 6.7 万亿；3）一季度新增个 人住房贷款创 2022 年以来单季最大增幅；4）近期将推出八项增量政策， 加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度；北京发布《2025 年 北京市住房发展年度计划》，提出加大购买绿色建筑和多子女家庭购房贷 款支持力度；广东 2025 年计划改造老旧小区超 600 个，更新住宅电梯 2.65 万台，研究盘活农户合法住房；上海杨浦区发布人才新政，优秀"博主" 购房最高可获 200 万补贴；珠海鼓励住房 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.742 billion yuan for 2024, a year-over-year decline of 16.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 314 million yuan, down 41.56% year-over-year [1] - The aerospace sector's demand has negatively impacted performance, while the semiconductor segment showed steady revenue growth [2] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.05 billion yuan from quartz glass materials and 656 million yuan from quartz glass products, representing declines of 21.43% and 3.56% respectively [2] - The semiconductor segment's revenue grew by 11% year-over-year, supported by market expansion and product development [2] - The company's gross margin and net margin decreased by 7.31 and 7.68 percentage points to 42.17% and 18.04% respectively [2] R&D and Capacity Expansion - R&D expenses increased by 11.98% to 250 million yuan, leading to a rise in the R&D expense ratio by 3.67 percentage points to 14.35% [3] - The company is advancing its high-purity synthetic quartz sand project and has successfully developed new automated production processes for honeycomb structure fabrics [3] - A project to expand the production capacity of synthetic quartz glass materials to 160 tons per year has commenced [3] Market Position and Capital Operations - The company is a leading supplier of quartz glass fibers in the domestic aerospace sector, focusing on aerospace and semiconductor fields [3] - The company announced plans to raise up to 300 million yuan through a private placement in April 2024, aiming to enhance its industrial layout and strengthen product and service advantages [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 13.4% to 580 million yuan, with an initial forecast for 2026 set at 737 million yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 42.4x for 2025 and 33.4x for 2026 [4] - The target price remains at 47.86 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 2% [4]

作者：张云杰 陶川 今天公布的 CPI 环比和同比均出现了负增长，这种看似反常的现象背后究竟是基本面的映射还是短期的扰动？ 一方面， 春节提前在 1 月往往会带动"涨价"提前，从而压低 2 月的 CPI 读数。从历史来看， 2006 、 2014 、 2017 年等与今年春节时点相 近的年份，都存在类似现象。 相较之下，这些年份的 2 月 CPI 环比平均上涨 0.3% ，要好于今年同期水平，这部分与天气造成的"供给冲 击"有关。 另一方面， 在短期扰动之外，核心 CPI 同比四年以来首次转负、服务业拉动明显走弱，均反映出需求修复存在症结； PPI 延续负增长， 也印证了供给过剩的问题依然存在，这些都需要在政策层面予以应对。 考虑到两会已对"研究化解重点产业结构性矛盾"问题做出表态， 我们预计后续供给端的增量政策或率先出台，缓解 PPI 持续下行的状态。 "春节错位"之外，"极端天气"对 CPI 同比读数造成了额外拖累。 分项来看， 2 月食品拖累 CPI 同比下降 0.6 个百分点，是最大拖累项，其 中鲜菜占一半以上、拖累幅度达 0.31 个百分点。 一方面， 去年 2 月中下旬，全国多地出现低温、冻雨等极 ...