公司点评 | 零跑汽车 25 全年业绩符合预期，26 年冲击销量百万目标 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 24 日 零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年报点评 事件：公司 25Q4 净利润 3.6 亿元，营收 210.3 亿，Q4 毛利率 15%，其中整 车毛利率约 12%，首次全年盈利。25 年全年营收 647.3 亿元，同比翻倍，主 要是受新车上市拉动。全年 Non-GAAP 净利 10.8 亿元，同比+34.3 亿元。 公司处于新品周期，将全面覆盖 10-30 万元价格带，有望驱动销量持续突破。 公司新车型发布节奏明确，A10 将于 3 月底正式上市；D 平台首发车型 D19 预计于 4 月启动销售；A05 与 D99 则计划在 6 月中下旬至 7 月初推向市场。 我们认为，这四款新车上市后将构成完整的 ABCD 品牌矩阵，公司将全面覆 盖 10-30 万元的价格区间。预计 26 年存量车型与新增车型销量占比为 6:4。 海外渠道持续布局，产品加速出口海外。1）渠道方面，公司 2025 年出口量 为新势力第一，超 6.7 万辆。2026 年欧洲网点将超 800 家，南美、亚太渠道 将大幅增加。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 14.5%, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 15% in Q4 2025 [5][6]. - The company turned profitable in 2025 with a net profit of 540 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [5][6]. - The company is set to launch new models in 2026, including the A series and D series, which are expected to fill gaps in its current product lineup and contribute to increased sales [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, 100.81 billion yuan in 2026, 138.68 billion yuan in 2027, and 163.5 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 92%, 101%, 56%, 38%, and 18% respectively [4]. - The net profit forecast shows a recovery trajectory with estimates of -2.82 billion yuan in 2024, 538 million yuan in 2025, 4.82 billion yuan in 2026, 7.35 billion yuan in 2027, and 9.25 billion yuan in 2028, indicating a year-on-year growth of 33%, 119%, 796%, 52%, and 26% respectively [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly to 15.1% in 2026 and further to 15.3% by 2028 [10]. Market Position and Expansion - The company ranked first among new energy vehicle manufacturers in terms of export volume, with 67,000 units exported in 2025 and over 100,000 units cumulatively by February 2026 [7]. - The company is actively expanding into the South American market, having launched models in Brazil and established a significant presence in Europe with over 800 outlets [7]. - The upcoming production of the B10 model in Spain is expected to enhance the company's local manufacturing capabilities and support its international growth strategy [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 14.5%, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 15% in Q4 2025 [5][6] - The company turned profitable in 2025 with a net profit of 540 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [5][6] - The company is set to launch new models in 2026, including the A series and D series, which are expected to fill gaps in the current product lineup and contribute to increased sales [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, 100.81 billion yuan in 2026, 138.68 billion yuan in 2027, and 163.5 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 92%, 101%, 56%, 38%, and 18% respectively [4] - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 4.82 billion yuan in 2026, 7.35 billion yuan in 2027, and 9.25 billion yuan in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 796%, 52%, and 26% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.38 yuan in 2025, 3.39 yuan in 2026, 5.17 yuan in 2027, and 6.51 yuan in 2028 [4] Market Position and Expansion - The company ranked first among new energy vehicle manufacturers in terms of export volume, with 67,000 vehicles exported in 2025 and over 100,000 cumulative exports by February 2026 [7] - The company is actively expanding into the South American market, with new models launched in Brazil and plans for further growth in this region [7] Future Outlook - The introduction of the A and D series models is anticipated to drive domestic sales upward, while the new factory in Spain is expected to commence production of the B10 model in October 2026 [8] - Despite adjustments in profit forecasts due to industry challenges, the company is expected to maintain strong growth driven by new vehicle cycles and international expansion [8]

2025 年度扭亏为盈，看好 A 系列和 D 系列新车 零跑汽车实现全年盈利。零跑汽车 25Q4 实现 20.1 万销量，同比增长 66%，带动 收入实现 210 亿元，同比增长 56.1%。2025 年全年实现 59.7 万销量，连续两年 销量翻倍，收入同比翻倍至 647 亿元。2025 年全年汽车收入/服务及其他销售收 入分别为 620.1/27.2 亿元，服务及其他收入大幅增长主要是由于海外整车销量大 幅增长，带动相关碳积分交易收入增加，其绝对值大约为 10 亿元左右。25Q4 综 合毛利率达到 15%，其中汽车毛利率大约 12%；2025 年全年毛利率提升 6.1pct 至 14.5%，主要是由于持续的成本管理、产品组合的优化、其他业务收入。由于 品牌力的建设和营销活动的增加，Q4 销售费用明显增加，Q4 公司归母净利润实 现 2.3 亿元，同比增长 177%。2025 年全年归母净利润实现 5.4 亿元，首次实现 年度的扭亏为盈，也使得零跑成为第二家实现年度盈利的中国新势力车企；调整 后归母净利润 10.8 亿元。 展望 2026 年，公司维持 100 万销量、50 亿利润的指引。2025 年公司销 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor, with a target price of HKD 72, corresponding to a valuation of HKD 1,030 billion, based on 18x 2026e P/E and 0.8x 2026e P/S [4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, with a projected sales volume of 597,000 units, doubling sales for two consecutive years, and revenue reaching HKD 64.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.1% [1][2]. - The company plans to launch four new models in 2026, including the A10 and D19, to sustain strong sales growth [2]. - Leap Motor's overseas market expansion is progressing steadily, with 67,000 units exported in 2025, leading the Chinese new energy vehicle sector [3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Leap Motor achieved a net profit of HKD 230 million, a year-on-year increase of 177%, and a full-year net profit of HKD 540 million, marking its first annual profit [1]. - The gross margin for 2025 improved by 6.1 percentage points to 14.5%, driven by cost management and product mix optimization [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue of HKD 112.6 billion in 2026, with a net profit of HKD 5 billion, and aims for a profit target of HKD 5 billion for 2026 [2][4]. Sales and Market Strategy - Leap Motor's sales network covers 295 cities with 950 sales stores and 526 service centers, aiming to enhance channel quality through investor programs [2]. - The company is focusing on local production in Spain, with plans to start production of the B10 model in October 2026 [3]. - The sales volume forecast for 2026-2028 is 1 million, 1.42 million, and 1.61 million units, respectively, with corresponding revenues of HKD 1,126 billion, HKD 1,618 billion, and HKD 1,772 billion [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a total delivery of 596,905 vehicles, representing a 103% increase year-over-year, marking two consecutive years of doubled deliveries [5][9] - The net profit for 2025 was CNY 540 million, with a gross profit margin of 14.5%, up by 6.1% from 8.4% in 2024 [6][8] - Total revenue exceeded CNY 64 billion, reflecting a 101.3% increase compared to the previous year [8] - Cash flow from operations surpassed CNY 12 billion, an increase of CNY 4.15 billion from 2024 [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that it is the only startup EV company in China with monthly sales exceeding 70,000 units [5] - The C10 model achieved total sales of over 200,000 units within 18 months, while the B-series models approached 200,000 units by the end of February 2026 [9][10] - The B10 model launched in April 2025 won 18 awards within a month of its release, indicating strong market reception [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - By the end of 2025, the company had established a sales and service network covering 259 cities, an increase of 31 cities from the previous year [17] - The total export volume reached 100,000 units, with the company ranking second in passenger car exports in Q4 2025 [20][21] - The company has expanded its international presence, with 900 sales and service outlets established globally, including over 800 in Europe [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance its in-house production capabilities to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations [26][27] - Localization of production is a strategic focus, with plans for a production facility in Spain for the B10 model, which will account for only one-fourth of its total sales volume [34] - The company is committed to integrating ESG principles into its operations and has been recognized for its high ESG governance capabilities [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about maintaining sales targets for 2026, despite potential fluctuations in market demand [52][53] - The company anticipates that geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices may accelerate the adoption of new energy vehicles in Europe [69] - Management emphasized the importance of cost control and operational efficiency to sustain profitability amid raw material price changes [26][43] Other Important Information - The company launched several new models in 2025, including the D19 and A10, with plans for further model releases in 2026 [12][58] - The company has signed strategic agreements with FAW Group and other partners to enhance collaboration in new energy vehicle development [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the impact of raw material price changes on gross profit margin? - Management acknowledged the pressure from raw material prices but emphasized that cost control measures would mitigate significant impacts on gross profit margin [26][27] Question: Can you break down the revenue from services and other areas? - The CNY 2.72 billion revenue includes carbon credit revenue, license fees, and export-related revenues, with expectations for growth in these areas [28][29] Question: What is the sales target for 2026? - The company aims for a sales target of 1 million units, with 100,000 to 150,000 units expected from overseas markets [52] Question: What is the inventory level currently? - The current inventory level is approximately 1.5 to 2 months, with efforts to reduce it further in response to market conditions [77][78] Question: What is the R&D expense plan for 2026? - R&D expenses are expected to increase in 2026 due to investments in new technology and model development [70]

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (SEHK:09863) Q4 2025 Earnings call March 16, 2026 07:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsLi Tengfei - CFOShen Ke - Board SecretaryConference Call ParticipantsLisa Yi - AnalystWu Pingyue - Research AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystOperatorHello, everyone. Welcome to Leapmotor full year 2025 earnings conference call. Together with us, we have a CFO of Leapmotor, Mr. Li Tengfei, Joint President of the c ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the total vehicle sales reached 596,905 units, an increase of 103% compared to the previous year, marking two consecutive years of doubling deliveries [3][4] - The company achieved a net profit of CNY 540 million in 2025, breaking even and becoming profitable [4][5] - Revenue exceeded CNY 64 billion, up by 101.3% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 14.5%, an increase of 6.1% from 8.4% in 2024 [5][6] - Cash flow from operations exceeded CNY 12 billion, up by CNY 4.15 billion compared to 2024 [5][6] - Total cash balance reached CNY 37.8 billion, an increase of CNY 13.2 billion or 50.9% [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company launched three new B-series models and revamped existing models, contributing to strong sales performance [7][8] - The C10 model achieved over 200,000 units sold within 18 months, while the B05 and B10 models also saw significant sales shortly after their launches [6][7] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2025 reached a record 15% [4][5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Leapmotor ranked first among all EV startups in China for total exports, exceeding 100,000 units in 2025 [4][20] - The company expanded its sales and service network to cover 259 cities, an increase of 31 cities from the previous year [16] - By the end of 2025, Leapmotor International established 900 sales and service outlets globally, with over 800 in Europe and Asia-Pacific [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance in-house production capabilities to mitigate raw material price fluctuations and improve cost control [25][26] - Leapmotor is focusing on localization for its production strategy, particularly in Europe, to adapt to geopolitical changes [30][31] - The company plans to continue investing in R&D, particularly in smart driving technology, with a commitment to in-house development [48][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about achieving sales targets for 2026, despite potential market fluctuations [40] - The company anticipates that the demand for new energy vehicles will continue to grow, particularly in the European market due to rising oil prices [51] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a balance in inventory levels to optimize sales performance [56][57] Other Important Information - Leapmotor received recognition for its ESG governance capabilities, achieving a high rating from MSCI for three consecutive years [21][22] - The company signed strategic agreements with FAW Group and other partners to enhance collaboration in R&D and production [19][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of raw material price changes on gross profit margin - Management acknowledged the pressure from raw material price increases but emphasized that cost control measures would mitigate significant impacts on gross profit margin [25][26] Question: Breakdown of revenue from services and sustainability - The CNY 2.72 billion revenue includes carbon credit revenue, license fees, and export-related revenues, with expectations for growth in these areas [27][28] Question: Overseas business and localization plans - Management confirmed that only one-fourth of B10 sales would be localized in Europe, with the rest exported, and emphasized the importance of localization for global expansion [30][31] Question: Guidance for Q1 gross profit margin and sales expenses - Management indicated that Q1 gross profit margin would likely drop due to seasonal sales volume fluctuations, while sales expenses would increase in 2026 but decrease per vehicle [34][37] Question: Sales targets for domestic and overseas markets - The company maintained its sales target of 1 million units for 2026, with a focus on Brazil and other key South American markets [40][43]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨零跑汽车（09863.HK） [Table_Title] 零跑汽车点评：1-2 月销量超 6.0 万辆，期待后 续 A&D 系列新车上市 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 零跑汽车 2 月交付 28,067 辆，同比增长 11.0%，环比下降 12.5%。展望未来，公司国内新车 周期带来销量持续增长，海外与 Stellantis 合作实现轻资产出海，打开全球销量空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 零跑汽车（09863.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 零跑汽车点评：2] 1-2 月销量超 6.0 万辆，期待后 续 A&D 系列新车上市 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 零跑汽车 2 月交付 28,067 辆，同比增长 11.0%，环比下降 12.5%。 事件评论 丨证券研究 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable turnaround of Leap Motor under the leadership of founder Zhu Jiangming, who has successfully navigated the company through significant challenges to become the sales champion among new energy vehicle manufacturers by 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Leap Motor achieved cumulative deliveries of nearly 600,000 vehicles in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 103%, surpassing competitors like Hongmeng Zhixing, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, and Li Auto [3]. - The company recorded its first half-year profit in 2025, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, making it the second new energy vehicle manufacturer to achieve this milestone [3]. - Leap Motor's stock price experienced volatility, peaking at 76.3 HKD in August 2025 before declining to 45.28 HKD by February 2026, resulting in a market capitalization reduction to 64.4 billion HKD [7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Zhu Jiangming emphasizes cost control and has personally participated in procurement decisions exceeding 2 million yuan, reflecting a frugal approach to business operations [3][4]. - The company adopted a "half-price ideal" strategy, offering vehicles with features comparable to those priced at 400,000 yuan for under 200,000 yuan, which has been pivotal in its market positioning [4][5]. - Leap Motor has established a strong foothold in the international market, exporting 60,000 vehicles in 2025, aided by a strategic partnership with Stellantis, which invested 1.5 billion euros in the company [6]. Group 3: Future Challenges - Leap Motor aims to transition from being perceived as a "new force" to a "world-class automaker," setting ambitious sales targets of over 4 million vehicles annually, with 2026 being a critical year for achieving the "million vehicle" milestone [9][10]. - The company faces increasing competition and market pressures, particularly in the high-end vehicle segment, where it plans to launch new models priced around 300,000 yuan [10]. - Recent challenges faced by competitors, such as Li Auto's significant drop in sales and profitability, highlight the fragile nature of profitability in the new energy vehicle sector, necessitating careful navigation of growth and market positioning for Leap Motor [10].