第一，900块买入摩王和沐曦，这辈子还有没有机会回本？ 这个事，是我一直在思考的一个问题，作为今年最火的两个新股，摩王的最高价到过940块，沐曦到过895块，但是，看下面的走势图。 下图， 摩王 ，截至今天中午收盘，从最高点回撤33个点。 下图， 沐曦 ，则高位回撤32个点。 今天A股继续上演下午冲高的剧本，wind全A突破6400点，创年内的第四高点，距离收盘价新高，也就0.5%的距离了——话句话说，在涨个一丢 丢，A股将会以新高结束2025年，简单聊聊市场里的三个热点。 大家圣诞节快乐哈，知道大伙儿今晚都有活动，提前写一点。 那么，大家觉得， 在高位冲进去的勇士们，还有没有回本的机会？ 从个人的视角来看，我看好AI带来的产业革命，因为它有明确的应用场景，具备旺盛的长期生命力；我也看好GPU市场的国产替代，在份额提升 的过程中，国内企业分到的蛋糕越来越多，这也是确定性的趋势。 但是，有一个问题，两家企业，是否有足够的护城河？作为仅仅成立5年不到的两家企业，3-5年后，会不会出现更强的后浪，抢占更大的份额？ 这个我判断不准。 大家投个票吧， 我们以5年为限，破前高的几率有多大。 ...... 第二，白银LOF ...

Core Insights - The Chinese semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant transformation, marked by the successful IPOs of domestic GPU companies such as MuXi and Moer Thread, reflecting a collective investor sentiment towards "computing power autonomy" [1][2] - The value focus in the semiconductor sector is shifting from centralized computing power to "ubiquitous intelligence," indicating a profound change in the IoT semiconductor landscape [1] Group 1: Current Trends - The listings of MuXi and Moer Thread occur during a unique time when AI applications are rapidly emerging, making computing power a fundamental resource [2] - The expansion of computing power is moving from data centers to edge and terminal devices, driven by the maturation of AI technology and decreasing costs [3][4] Group 2: Predictions for IoT Semiconductor Industry - Prediction 1: The integration of edge AI will accelerate, leading to widespread application of IoT devices equipped with edge AI capabilities by 2026 [7] - Prediction 2: Modular design (Chiplet) and open architecture (RISC-V) will see significant growth, allowing for more flexible and cost-effective chip designs [10][11] - Prediction 3: Carbon footprint tracking will become a critical design constraint, alongside performance, power consumption, and cost [12][13] - Prediction 4: Localized production of IoT chips will increase, driven by government incentives and the need for supply chain security [16][17] - Prediction 5: AI will evolve from a supportive tool to a co-pilot in the design process, automating routine tasks and allowing engineers to focus on higher-level decisions [18][19] - Prediction 6: Security design will transition from an optional feature to a regulatory requirement, necessitating built-in hardware protections [20][21] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - For chip design companies: Shift focus from parameter competition to scenario differentiation and evaluate the availability of lightweight NPU reserves [24] - For equipment manufacturers (OEMs): Avoid reliance on cloud-based intelligence and seek SoC suppliers that support edge inference capabilities [27] - For industry investors: Look for companies providing AI EDA plugins, compliance automation tools, and Chiplet interconnect IP, as they are likely to be the winners in the upcoming market [29] Group 4: Future Landscape - The semiconductor industry's value will transition from "peak computing power" to "intelligent density per unit energy consumption" and "lifecycle security compliance" [31] - The global semiconductor supply chain will evolve from a unipolar dominance to a multipolar coexistence, emphasizing the importance of regional chip ecosystems [32]

Core Viewpoint - The newly listed company, Muxi Co., is expected to perform well in the market, similar to its peer, Moer Thread, due to its high issuance price and fundraising amount, alongside strong revenue growth in the GPU sector [1][4][6]. Company Overview - Muxi Co. is a rare full-stack GPU manufacturer in China, focusing on the research, design, and sales of GPU products for AI training, inference, general computing, and graphics rendering [1][2]. - The company has a strong core team, with founders coming from AMD, and is one of the few in China with comprehensive capabilities in high-performance GPU chip development and production [2]. Industry Insights - The global GPU market is projected to grow from $77.39 billion in 2024 to $472.45 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.19% [2]. - The Chinese GPU market is expected to reach approximately 107.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.96% [2]. Financial Performance - Muxi Co. reported revenues of 426,400 yuan in 2022, 5.3 million yuan in 2023, and 74.3 million yuan in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 12,334.60% and 1,301.46% respectively [3]. - The company is currently operating at a loss, with net profits of -777 million yuan in 2022, -871 million yuan in 2023, and projected -1.4 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. IPO Details - Muxi Co. issued 40.1 million shares and raised approximately 4.1969 billion yuan, with funds allocated to three key projects, including high-performance GPU development [3][5]. - The company's price-to-sales ratio (TTM) is 23.84, significantly lower than the average of comparable companies at 140.34 [5]. Market Sentiment - The recent trend in the new stock market shows an average first-day increase of 348.19% for newly listed stocks, with Muxi Co. expected to achieve a similar performance [4][6]. - The high issuance price of 104.66 yuan per share places Muxi Co. among the higher-priced stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which may influence its market performance [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The newly listed company, Muxi Co., is expected to perform well in the market, similar to its peer, Moer Thread, due to its high issuance price and fundraising amount, alongside strong revenue growth in the GPU sector [1][4]. Company Overview - Muxi Co. is a rare domestic full-stack GPU manufacturer, focusing on the research, design, and sales of full-stack GPU products for AI training, inference, general computing, and graphics rendering [1][2]. - The company has a strong core team, with founders having backgrounds from AMD, and is one of the few in China mastering the core technologies of general GPU architecture and high-performance GPU chip design [2]. Industry Insights - The global GPU market is projected to grow from $77.39 billion in 2024 to $472.45 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.19% [2]. - The Chinese GPU market is expected to reach approximately 107.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.96% [2]. Financial Performance - Muxi Co. reported revenues of 426,400 yuan in 2022, 5.3 million yuan in 2023, and 74.3 million yuan in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 12,334.60% and 1,301.46% respectively [3]. - The company is currently operating at a loss, with net profits of -777 million yuan in 2022, -871 million yuan in 2023, and -1.409 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. IPO Details - Muxi Co. raised approximately 4.1969 billion yuan through its IPO, with funds allocated to three key projects, including the development of high-performance general GPUs and AI inference GPUs [3][4]. - The issuance price of Muxi Co. is set at 104.66 yuan per share, which is considered high within the Sci-Tech Innovation Board context [4][5]. Market Sentiment - The recent trend in the new stock market shows an average first-day increase of 348.19% for newly listed stocks, indicating a favorable market sentiment for Muxi Co. [4][5]. - The average first-day increase for the last ten newly listed stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board was 212.32%, suggesting potential for Muxi Co. to achieve similar performance [5][6].

Group 1: Industry Insights - The Trump administration is reportedly considering an executive order on robotics technology for next year, leading to a positive surge in the U.S. robotics sector, with Tesla rising over 4% [1] - The focus on robotics indicates a strategic move by the U.S. to compete in key areas like AI against other major economies [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Developments - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the significant potential for new urbanization development, advocating for tailored urban planning and integration with housing market stability [2] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng highlighted the importance of a scientific and robust monetary policy framework to maintain currency and financial stability, while addressing issues of excessive competition in the financial sector [3] - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a weaker job market than expected, which raises the likelihood of a 90% chance for a Fed rate cut [4] Group 3: Market Trends - Copper prices have reached historical highs due to supply shortages and increased demand, with recommendations to focus on companies with strong resource guarantees and environmental standards [9] - The upcoming IPO of GPU leader Moore Threads on December 5 is expected to boost interest in the GPU industry, driven by the rapid growth in AI and data center applications [10] - Joint efforts by two departments to promote the integration of civil aviation and tourism are anticipated to enhance profitability in the sector, with a focus on improving supply and demand dynamics [11]

Core Viewpoint - The successful IPO application of Moer Technology, known as "the domestic Nvidia," highlights the growing importance of AI and GPU technology in China's digital economy and the government's supportive policies for innovation in this sector [1][2]. Company Overview - Moer Technology was established in 2020 and focuses on the research, design, and sales of full-function GPUs and related products, aiming to provide computing acceleration platforms for high-performance computing fields such as AI and digital twins [4]. - The company has launched four generations of GPU architecture chips from 2021 to 2024, with products that have achieved performance metrics close to or at international advanced levels [4][5]. Market Context - The global GPU market is projected to reach 3.6 trillion yuan by 2029, with China's GPU market expected to grow from 1.36 trillion yuan in 2024 to 37.8% of the global market share [2]. - The AI chip market in China is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 50%, with GPUs being one of the fastest-growing segments [2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Moer Technology achieved a revenue of 702 million yuan, surpassing the total revenue from 2022 to 2024, which was approximately 608 million yuan [7]. - The company has attracted significant investment, with over 10 well-known investment institutions participating, raising more than 10 billion yuan [7]. IPO Details - Moer Technology's IPO application was approved in just 88 days, reflecting the supportive regulatory environment for tech companies [1]. - The company plans to raise 8 billion yuan through its IPO to fund projects related to next-generation AI training and inference chips, graphics chips, and smart SoC chips [9]. Ownership Structure - Moer Technology does not have a single shareholder owning more than 30% of the company, with the founder holding 11.06% directly and controlling 36.36% of the shares through agreements [8].

Company Insights - OpenAI has signed a hardware manufacturing agreement with Luxshare Precision, planning to launch its first consumer device by the end of 2026 [2] - Luxshare Precision may not be the only Apple supplier involved, as GoerTek is also expected to provide speaker modules for OpenAI's first consumer hardware product [2] - Sunflower plans to acquire 100% equity of high-end semiconductor materials company Xipu Materials [12] Industry Insights - The State Council's Food Safety Office is accelerating the formulation of national standards for prepared dishes and promoting their use in the catering sector to better protect consumer rights [3] - The demand for high-performance computing chips is expected to surge due to the rapid development of AI and autonomous driving applications, increasing capital attention on the GPU industry chain [9] - The 11th batch of drug procurement has introduced a "no internal competition" rule, optimizing procurement rules to avoid excessive low-price competition and ensuring product quality and reasonable profit margins for generic drug companies [10] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban, which may lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices as inventory depletion accelerates [11]

Group 1 - OpenAI's upcoming GPT-5 model is expected to achieve gold medal level at the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad, marking a significant breakthrough in general reinforcement learning and computational scaling [1] - The competition in large model development is intensifying, with ongoing investments in computing infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Nvidia has announced the resumption of H20 sales in China but has no plans to restart production, indicating limited inventory for the newly customized AI chips [2] - Domestic GPU manufacturers are making strides, with Lishan Technology set to launch its self-developed 6nm GPU on July 26, designed for high-performance graphics rendering and AI applications [2] Group 3 - Nvidia's stock price continues to reach new highs, with a market capitalization exceeding $4.2 trillion as of July 18, driven by strong demand and capacity expansion in the domestic supply chain [3] - Core supply chain companies are expanding capacity, including NewEase, which anticipates sustained high demand in the optical module sector [3] Group 4 - Key players in computing infrastructure span across chips, servers, optical modules, and data centers, covering the entire industry chain from hardware manufacturing to foundational services [4] - Major companies in the chip sector include Haiguang Information, a leader in domestic CPU and DCU chips, and Cambrian, known for AI chips suitable for large model training [5] Group 5 - In the server sector, Zhongke Shuguang leads in liquid cooling technology with a PUE value as low as 1.04, while Inspur holds a 47% market share in global AI servers [6][7] - In the optical module sector, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase are leading with significant market shares and innovative technologies [8][9] Group 6 - In the data center and infrastructure space, Unisplendour provides comprehensive computing solutions with a revenue of 70 billion yuan, while DataPort is benefiting from the construction of the Yangtze River Delta hub [10] - Other notable companies include Runze Technology, a hidden champion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and Hengrun Co., which is involved in power leasing and the Eastern Data Western Computing project [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming release of GPT-5 signifies a new wave of competition in large models, with significant investments in computing infrastructure expected to continue [9][10] - NVIDIA's stock price continues to reach new highs, with a market capitalization exceeding $4.2 trillion as of July 18, indicating strong demand in the domestic supply chain [11] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry is experiencing a sustained high level of demand, particularly in sectors such as optical modules and PCB manufacturing [11] - Domestic GPU manufacturers are making strides in replacing foreign products, with companies like Lishan Technology set to launch a self-developed 6nm GPU [10] Key Companies to Watch - Suggested companies for investment consideration include: 1. Servers: Industrial Fulian, Huaqin Technology 2. Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Taicheng Light 3. PCB: Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, Shengyi Technology 4. Copper Interconnect: Zhaolong Interconnect, Changxin Bochuang 5. GPU: Cambrian, Haiguang Information [11]