摩根大通指出，春节AI推广战背后，是用户习惯向聊天机器人迁移，推动Token消耗进入长期高增长。 预测中国Token消耗量年复合增速将达330%。投资焦点应放在 "二阶赢家"：直接受益的AI基础设施商 及广告业务相关公司。 摩根大通指出，虽然春节期间各大科技巨头掀起了激烈的AI应用推广战，但这只是表面现象。透 过"谁将赢得AI应用大战"的短期博弈，市场应关注更深层的趋势：消费者获取信息和消费内容的方式 正在发生结构性改变，这将推动Token（令牌）消耗量开启一个长达多年的高速增长期。 在2026年春节，腾讯、阿里巴巴和百度将通过数十亿元人民币的补贴争夺用户心智。据追风交易台， 2月6日，摩根大通在最新发布的中国互联网与人工智能行业研报中分析认为，这些大型互联网平台投 入真金白银进行推广，是为加速用户从传统搜索转向聊天机器人，并培养智能体商业习惯。这一进程 实际上推升了推理量，从而加快了Token的消耗速度。目前的GPU算力需求过剩或供不应求的状况将 在未来几年持续。 该行预测，2025年至2030年，中国Token消耗量的年复合增长率将高达330%左右。基于此，摩根大通 认为目前判断AI应用端的胜负为时尚早， ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports a shift in consumer behavior, with chatbots becoming a new starting point for information search, content consumption, and task execution [1] - The firm predicts a compound annual growth rate of approximately 330% for China's token consumption from 2025 to 2030, indicating significant growth potential in AI infrastructure [1] - Major internet platforms are now willing to invest substantial marketing funds to accelerate adoption, which will mechanistically increase reasoning volume and drive rapid growth in token consumption [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about Tencent Holdings' (00700) cautious advancement in AI products compared to peers, leading to potential valuation compression [2] - The current trading valuation of Tencent is 15 times the forecasted earnings for 2026, only about 25% above historical lows, while core earnings outlook remains robust [2] - Tencent's enduring asset is its distribution and engagement capabilities, which can grow over time and allow for scaling new capabilities, including AI, at a lower user acquisition cost [2]