Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company reported a 10.17% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 46.74 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.835 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.31% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing store formats and accelerating store openings, with a net increase of 12 stores in the first half of 2025, bringing the total to 487 stores [3]. - A partnership with Bandai Namco is expected to create a new growth avenue, with plans to open more stores featuring popular IPs [4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 976 million yuan, a 9.89% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 40.04 million yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.9%, a slight decrease of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.3 yuan for every 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 38.53% [2]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company has opened 35 new stores and closed 23 in the first half of 2025, with a focus on high-consumption cities [3]. - A new standardized store model has been developed to enhance customer acquisition and operational efficiency, resulting in a nearly 20% increase in customer visits and sales [3]. - The company has signed agreements for 30 additional stores to be opened in 2025, indicating a strong commitment to expansion [3]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profits to reach 135 million yuan, 168 million yuan, and 204 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [4][5]. - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: 3.812 billion yuan in 2025, 4.223 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.765 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 9.96%, 10.77%, and 12.86% respectively [5][10].

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月22日 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 优于大市 二季度利润增长超 40%，加盟门店持续扩张 营收增长稳健，利润增速超 40%。公司 2025 上半年实现营收 41.02 亿元，同 比+19.54%，归母净利润 3.31 亿元，同比+44.34%。单二季度看，营收同比 +13.13%至 18.5 亿元，归母净利润 1.42 亿元，同比+44.29%。整体营收在加 盟开店扩张及公司出货的批发业务增长下表现稳健，利润受益费用进一步优 化、珠宝业务中高毛利率定价产品占比提升而表现更优。总体上，虽短期直 营转加盟导致收入增速与利润增速不相匹配，但更轻的渠道模式将助力公司 未来加速门店规模扩张。 珠宝业务增速超 20%，潮宏基主品牌净开 72 家加盟店。分业务看，珠宝业务 收入增长21.22%至39.73 亿元，其中时尚珠宝产品增长20.33%至19.9 亿元， 传统黄金产品增长 23.95%至 18.31 亿元，受益于非遗工艺金饰品的优异表 现。皮具业务受需求下滑影响而营收同比下滑 17.77%至 1.23 亿元。渠道方 面，整体门店净开 31 家至 1542 家，其中潮宏基主品牌净开 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading distributor in the 3C product sector, with a diversified business model that benefits from opportunities in the AI-driven consumer electronics industry and value chain restructuring [1][12]. - The company has experienced a short-term revenue decline but is expected to benefit from a recovery in the smartphone market and the growth of its e-commerce business [2][20]. - The company has established a strong marketing network and deep partnerships with major smartphone brands, which positions it well for future growth [43][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Business Diversification - The company has expanded its business from mobile phone distribution to include smart terminal sales, e-commerce, lottery, mobile internet, and mobile resale, becoming a large conglomerate [1][12]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 840.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.18 million yuan, down 62.72% year-on-year [20]. 2. Smartphone Market Recovery and E-commerce Opportunities - The global smartphone market is projected to recover in 2024, with a 7% increase in shipments compared to 2023, reaching 1.22 billion units [2][29]. - The company has a well-established distribution network and is actively expanding its e-commerce presence, with a significant increase in the number of stores under its e-commerce subsidiary, reaching 446 stores, an 80% increase from 2023 [2][52]. 3. Strategic Partnerships and Channel Development - The company maintains deep partnerships with leading smartphone brands such as Apple, Huawei, and Samsung, which enhances its market position [43][45]. - The company has developed a comprehensive marketing network in China, with over 2,311 managed stores and a strong online presence through platforms like JD.com and Douyin [43][45]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 0.01 billion yuan in 2025, 0.64 billion yuan in 2026, and 0.94 billion yuan in 2027 [59]. - The report emphasizes the company's significant scale advantages and its successful expansion into e-commerce, supporting the "Hold" investment rating [59].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][5] Core Views - The company reported a 1.9% year-on-year decline in overall retail value for the period from April to June 2025, showing improvement compared to a 11.6% decline in the previous quarter [4][6] - In the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), retail value decreased by 3.3%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 7.8% increase [4][6] - Same-store sales in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) fell by 3.3%, a narrowing of 9.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, while same-store sales in Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets grew by 2.2%, a significant improvement from a 22.5% decline [4][6] - The company continues to focus on enhancing single-store efficiency, resulting in the closure of 307 underperforming stores, with a total of 6,337 stores remaining at the end of the quarter [4][9] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - The company experienced a notable improvement in same-store sales, particularly in high-margin priced products, with a 20.8% year-on-year increase in sales of priced gold products in the Chinese market (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) [4][6] - The proportion of retail value from priced products increased from 15.8% in the same period last year to 19.8% this year [6] Product Development and Strategy - The company is investing further in research and design to strengthen its portfolio of high-margin priced products and is optimizing its store structure to boost single-store sales [5][11] - A new high-end jewelry series has been launched, designed with Eastern aesthetics, aiming to enhance the brand's influence in the global high-end jewelry market [6] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to be HKD 74.25 billion, HKD 84.14 billion, and HKD 93.28 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7, 15.6, and 14.1 [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][4] Core Views - The company announced plans to issue HKD 8.8 billion convertible bonds maturing in 2030, with a net fundraising of approximately HKD 8.715 billion. The initial conversion price is set at HKD 17.32 per share, representing a premium of 26.24% over the closing price on June 26 [3][4] - The funds raised will primarily be directed towards the development and financing of gold jewelry business, store upgrades, and strategic market expansion both domestically and internationally. The focus will be on high-design products and enhancing store profitability [3][4] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to HKD 74.25 billion, HKD 84.14 billion, and HKD 93.28 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.1, 15.1, and 13.6 [3][4] Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2025, the revenue from priced gold jewelry products increased by 105.5% to HKD 12.782 billion, accounting for 14.6% of total retail sales, an increase of 8.8 percentage points [4] - The company opened 5 new image stores in fiscal year 2025, achieving higher productivity than average stores, with an average monthly sales exceeding HKD 10 million, up from HKD 9 million the previous year [6] - The average monthly sales per store are projected to continue increasing, supported by the new store openings and enhanced product offerings [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expanding its industrial ecosystem through strategic acquisitions, enhancing its service offerings for new families [4] - The hair health market in China shows significant growth potential, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.7% from 2020 to 2023 [2] - The company aims to transform its traditional hair care services into a technology-driven model, focusing on product innovation and digital operations [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is acquiring a 65% stake in Star Silk Investment and plans to purchase 100% of Silk Industry for 1.65 billion yuan, making them subsidiaries [1] - Silk Industry, established in 2014, is a leader in the hair care segment, with projected revenue of 723 million yuan and a net profit of 181 million yuan in 2024 [2] Market Potential - The hair care market in China has grown from 43.23 billion yuan in 2020 to 57.09 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a robust market opportunity [2] - The company is launching a "Technology Hair Care 3.0" strategy to enhance its service offerings [2] Product and Channel Strategy - Silk Industry has over 160 professional hair care products and holds 48 patents, including 7 invention patents [3] - The company operates 2,503 stores, including 176 direct-operated and 2,327 franchised stores, with over 2 million members [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 10.7 billion yuan, 12.7 billion yuan, and 14.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 295 million yuan, 414 million yuan, and 536 million yuan [9][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.23 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a decline in Q1 2025 with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items down by 31.01%, 34.19%, and 41.27% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive adjustment in response to market demand and channel changes, focusing on high-end liquor while also emphasizing cost-effective product layouts [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 99.10 billion, 106.70 billion, and 111.92 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 4.71%, 7.67%, and 4.89%, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 10.44%, with a slight decline of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.99%, down 0.15 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company reported operating cash flow of 418 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year, indicating a relatively strong cash flow performance despite profit pressures [2] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.30 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 192.79% [4][3] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 10,121.03 million yuan, with a growth rate of 16.22%, while the 2024 revenue is expected to decline by 6.49% to 9,464.48 million yuan [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.31 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66.65 [4] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 7,636.04 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.55% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is leveraging a comprehensive retail strategy to address operational challenges and diversify its customer base [5] - The company has faced short-term profit impacts due to increased discounts but maintains a leading dividend payout ratio in the industry [7] - The core international brand partnerships are gradually recovering, and new brand acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's diversified layout [7] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.416 billion in FY2026, with a growth rate of 10.14% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 27,012.90 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.64% [6] - The net profit for FY2024 is projected at RMB 1,286 million, down 41.89% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for FY2024 is estimated at 38.4%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous fiscal year [7] - The company plans to maintain a total dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2024/25, continuing to provide high dividend returns to shareholders [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: RMB 28,933.20 million in 2024, RMB 27,012.90 million in 2025, and RMB 26,445.63 million in 2026, with respective growth rates of 6.87%, -6.64%, and -2.10% [6] - The projected net profit for the years 2026 to 2028 is RMB 1,416.34 million, RMB 1,670.93 million, and RMB 1,980.06 million, with growth rates of 10.14%, 17.98%, and 18.50% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2025, reflecting a cumulative payout ratio of 104.2% over the past six years [5] - Revenue for FY2025 is projected at 27.01 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, while net profit is expected to be 1.286 billion HKD, down 41.9% [5][8] - The company is adjusting its earnings forecasts for FY2026-2028, with expected net profits of 1.32 billion HKD, 1.591 billion HKD, and 1.85 billion HKD respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.4 for FY2026, 11.1 for FY2027, and 9.5 for FY2028 [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2025 revenue is expected to be 27,013 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 6.6% [8] - FY2025 net profit is projected at 1,286 million HKD, representing a 41.9% decrease compared to FY2024 [8] - Gross margin for FY2025 is anticipated to be 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous year [7][8] - The operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to be 5.9%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.2% for FY2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2025, despite a projected revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion and a significant drop in net profit by 41.9% to HKD 1.286 billion [5][8] - The company is adjusting its earnings forecasts for FY2026-2027 and introducing FY2028 projections, with expected net profits of HKD 1.32 billion, HKD 1.591 billion, and HKD 1.85 billion respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.4, 11.1, and 9.5 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, indicating potential value [5] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the company's revenue is projected at HKD 27.013 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 6.6% [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin is projected at 4.8% [7][8] - The company has effectively managed inventory, with a reduction in inventory to HKD 6 billion, and an improvement in inventory turnover days to 134.9 days [7] Operational Insights - The company has seen a decline in the number of stores, with a total of 5,020 stores as of FY2025, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year [6] - Direct online sales have increased significantly, contributing to a rise in online revenue share to the mid-30% range, up from the mid-20% range in FY2024 [6] - The company is focusing on optimizing its store portfolio by closing underperforming locations while expanding its presence in key markets with flagship stores [6]