证券研究报告 | 2026年01月07日 2026年01月08日 |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 非银金融·保险Ⅱ |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 孔祥 | 021-60375452 | kongxiang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523060004 | | 证券分析师： | 王京灵 | 0755-22941150 | wangjingling@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525070007 | 我们认为，2026 年中国平安的估值重估将主要受到双重动力的驱动。一方面在于内部（公募基金基准调整）、 外部资金（海外机构资金入市）的再配置。内部来看，随着公募基金高质量发展与长期考核机制的深化， 其对基准指数中权重股的配置将更趋纪律性，对包括金融龙头在内的核心资产，存在从历史低配状态向合 理水平回归的再平衡需求。外部来看，在全球经济格局演变与中国经济内生动能修复的背景下，海外资本 对中国资产的战略性配置意愿有望提升，经营稳健、具备市场代表性与高股息属性的龙头公 ...

证券研究报告 非银金融 | 保险Ⅱ 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 18 日 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 沈晨 SAC：S1350525090002 shenchen@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 17 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 3.21 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 7.36/0.87 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 13,030.33 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 13,030.33 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 84.60 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 云锋金融(00376.HK) 投资评级： 买入（首次） ——新业务价值高增，投资管理能力独特 投资要点： 联系人 扎根香港寿险市场，兼具强 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][9][24] Core Insights - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance funds reached 37.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.5% [2][4] - The insurance industry has increased its allocation to equity investments, particularly in direct stock investments, while reducing bank deposit scales [3][24] - The overall asset conversion rate for the industry stands at 83%, indicating a certain degree of under-allocation [3][24] Summary by Sections Fund Utilization - The insurance fund utilization balance exceeded 37 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.5% [4][10] - The balance of stock investments reached 3.6 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 55.1% year-on-year [15][24] Fixed Income - Bank deposit scales have decreased, with personal insurance and property insurance companies reducing their bank deposits by 4.9% and 7.5% respectively [11] - Bond allocation has increased, with personal insurance companies holding 17.2 trillion yuan in bonds, up 20.9% year-on-year [11] Equity Investments - The insurance sector has significantly increased its direct equity investments, with personal insurance stock investments reaching 34,124 billion yuan, an increase of 11,445 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [15] - The total scale of securities investment funds for personal and property insurance reached 17,756 billion yuan and 1,964 billion yuan respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 20.2% and 6.9% [15] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that in Q4, insurance funds will continue to seek high-dividend investment opportunities and maintain a focus on long-term bonds to match their asset allocation needs [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The third-quarter performance of China Pacific Insurance was primarily driven by investments, with individual insurance channels accelerating quarter by quarter [3] - The group's single-quarter revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.6% and 35.2% year-on-year, reaching 144.4 billion and 17.8 billion yuan respectively [3] - The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters grew by 19.3% year-on-year, indicating a stable performance that aligns with market expectations [3] Financial Metrics Summary - As of the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative net asset value decreased by 2.5% to 284.2 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The cumulative new business value (NBV) for life insurance showed a year-on-year growth of 31.2% [9] - The comprehensive cost ratio for property insurance improved by 1 percentage point to 97.6% [3] Business Segment Analysis - The new single premium growth rate for the life insurance agent channel showed a quarterly improvement, with Q3 single-quarter new premium increasing by 13.5% to 10.6 billion yuan [5] - Investment performance was a major driver of profit, with Q3 total profit increasing by 85.7% to 27.9 billion yuan, driven by a 79% increase in investment performance [6][17] - The core solvency adequacy ratio for life insurance decreased from 136% at the end of Q2 to 124% at the end of Q3, with a forecasted decline to 117% for the next quarter [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 52.9 billion, 64.7 billion, and 75.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.7%, 22.2%, and 16.1% respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratio of 0.54, 0.48, and 0.43 for the years 2025-2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's profit growth is driven by a reduction in investment expenses and impairment costs, with a strong growth in new business value (NBV) [5] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 67.2 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.1 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 30.8% and 88.2% respectively [5][6] - The annualized total investment return rate for the first three quarters reached 8.6%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of the end of September 2025, the company's net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 4.4% year-to-date to 100.5 billion yuan [5] - The company's NBV for the first three quarters grew by 50.8%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [6] Business and Management - The company has seen a significant increase in its individual insurance sales force, with over 30,000 new personnel added in the first three quarters, a year-on-year growth of over 140% [6] - The average productivity per person in the sales force increased by 50% year-on-year, contributing to significant revenue growth [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to issue domestic perpetual capital bonds not exceeding 10 billion yuan, which is expected to strengthen its solvency and maintain stable shareholder dividend ratios [7] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 38.2 billion, 41.4 billion, and 44.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 9%, and 7% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that China Life's new business sales have shown strong improvement quarter by quarter, with significant growth in investment income [5] - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 54.8% and 91.5% year-on-year, reaching 298.7 billion yuan and 126.9 billion yuan respectively [5] - The report indicates that the company's net asset value grew by 22.8% year-to-date, reaching 625.8 billion yuan, and the new business value (NBV) increased by 41.8% [5][11] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 2025 net profit reached 126.9 billion yuan, a 91.5% increase from Q3 2024, driven by reduced insurance service costs and strong new business sales [8][11] - The total investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 41% to 368.6 billion yuan, with an investment return rate of 6.42%, up 104 basis points year-on-year [13] - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 173.5 billion, 153.8 billion, and 186.4 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 62%, -11.4%, and 21.2% [11][22] Business Development - The company has shown a clear trend of improving new policy sales, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52.5% in Q3 2025 [8][11] - The report notes that the sales team has improved its skills in selling floating-rate products, contributing to the strong sales performance [8] - The company is expected to perform well in the 2026 sales season, supported by a stable sales team and improved retention rates [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with operating revenue reaching 344.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.70 billion yuan, up 19.3% [1] - The life insurance segment has demonstrated significant value growth, with new business value at 15.35 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 31.2% [2] - The property and casualty insurance business has maintained high-quality development, with a combined ratio of 97.6%, improving by 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [3] - The company has adjusted its investment strategy, achieving a total investment return rate of 5.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from the rising A-share market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 144.41 billion yuan, a 24.6% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 17.82 billion yuan, a significant growth of 35.2% [1] - The life insurance business's premium income from the bancassurance channel reached 58.31 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 63.3% year-on-year [2] - The property insurance segment reported original premium income of 160.21 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with auto insurance premiums growing by 2.9% to 80.46 billion yuan [3] Investment Strategy - The company has actively restructured its product offerings, increasing the proportion of participating insurance in new premium income to 58.6%, which helps optimize the product structure and reduce liability costs [2] - The company has also focused on long-term fixed-income assets to extend duration and capitalize on interest rate fluctuations [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been revised upward to 5.14, 5.25, and 5.43 yuan per share, respectively, from previous estimates of 4.77, 4.90, and 5.08 yuan per share [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.52, 0.45, and 0.40 for 2025 to 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in investment income and new business value (NBV), driven by strong performance in the investment sector and a strategic shift in product structure [1][2][3] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 537.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 167.8 billion yuan, up 60.5% year-on-year [1][7] - The company has successfully increased its equity investments, resulting in a substantial rise in investment income, which grew by 453.4% year-on-year to 137.1 billion yuan [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 298.7 billion yuan, a 54.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 126.9 billion yuan, up 91.5% year-on-year [1] - The new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters increased by 41.8% compared to the same period in 2024, reflecting effective business development and product optimization [2] - Total premium income rose by 10.1% to 669.645 billion yuan, with both new and renewal premiums showing double-digit growth [2] Investment Strategy - The company realized total investment income of 368.55 billion yuan, a 41.0% increase year-on-year, with an investment return rate of 6.42%, up 104 basis points [3] - The company maintained a high proportion of trading financial assets (TPL) to enhance flexibility and has adopted a high-dividend strategy to stabilize net investment income [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 6.33, 6.51, and 6.71 yuan, respectively, with an upward revision from previous estimates [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.84, 0.77, and 0.71 for 2025 to 2027 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights significant profit growth, with the life insurance new business value (NBV) continuing to grow at a high rate [4] - In Q3 2025, the group's net profit attributable to shareholders and operating profit after tax (OPAT) increased by 15.2% and 45.4% year-on-year, reaching 385 billion and 648 billion yuan respectively [5] - The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while the OPAT grew by 11.5% [5] - The life insurance NBV growth rate improved from 39.8% in the mid-year report to 46.2% in the Q3 report [6] - The comprehensive investment return rate for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 1 percentage point to 5.4% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the life insurance, property insurance, and banking segments' OPAT year-on-year growth rates were 0.6%, 26.2%, and -2.8% respectively, with life insurance remaining the core business [5] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 64.8 billion yuan, with a significant contribution from life insurance investments [10] Life Insurance Business - The life insurance NBV growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 46.2%, driven by agent and bancassurance channels [6] - The report anticipates continued good growth in the agent channel due to the company's strategy of combining products with medical and elderly care services [6] Investment Situation - The company's investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 was positively impacted by an increase in equity assets, which rose from 616.4 billion yuan in H1 2024 to 942.1 billion yuan in H1 2025 [7] - The core solvency ratio for life insurance decreased by 32.5 percentage points to 135% by the end of Q3 2025 [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for the company for 2025-2027 is 1494 billion, 1785 billion, and 2018 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 19.5%, and 13.0% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratio of 0.66, 0.61, and 0.57 for the years 2025-2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company has shown robust growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant recovery in profitability. The operating profit attributable to the parent company reached 116.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with growth accelerating quarter by quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 132.86 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [1] - The new business value (NBV) for life and health insurance increased by 46.2% to 35.72 billion yuan, with a quarterly growth rate of 58.3%. The NBV margin improved by 9.0 percentage points to 30.6%, driven by product structure optimization and policy benefits [2] - The investment portfolio achieved a non-annualized comprehensive investment return of 5.4%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, while the non-annualized net investment return was 2.8%, down 0.3 percentage points due to declining yields on new fixed-income assets [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company's insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 536.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 643.05 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.92% [4] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 4.84 yuan in 2023 to 9.26 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4] - The price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratio is projected to decrease from 0.73 in 2023 to 0.59 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [4]