Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 | 近期需警惕可能出现的回调行情，前期多单谨慎持有。 | 【交易策略】 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU | 主力关注 | 15750-16400 | 活动区间；NR | 关注 | 12700-13300 | 活动区间；BR | 关注 | 11900-12400 | 活动区间；橡胶系前期多单可考虑止盈离场。 | 分品种观点详述 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五 SR605 合约收盘价 5288 元/吨，日涨幅 0.17%，夜盘收 5284 元/吨；SR609 合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 收盘价 5299 元/ ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | 红枣 | 震荡 | 【行情复盘】 昨日 CJ605 合约收盘价 9075 元/吨，日跌幅 0.82%。CJ609 合约收盘价 9240 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.96%。 【重要资讯】 1.本周 36 家红枣样本点物理库存在 15300 吨，周环比减少 349 吨， 2.昨日河北特级红枣批发价 9.47 元/公斤，较昨日-0.04 元/公斤。 3.昨日前广东如意坊市场到货车辆 8 车，日环比+6 车。 4.昨日红枣仓单 2263 张，日环比+0 张。 【市场逻辑】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | | | 昨日红枣期价再度承压回落。当下处于春节备货旺季，但市场货源充裕对枣价压制 作用明显。技术面看近期红枣主力合约围绕 9000 元/吨一线徘徊，由于基本面 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 评级预测说明："+"表示：当日收盘价>上日收盘价；"-"表示：当日收盘价<上日收盘价。 数字代表当日涨跌幅度范围（以主力合约收盘价计算）。0.5 表示：0≤当日涨跌幅<0.5%； 1 表示：0.5%≤当日涨跌幅<1%；2 表示：1%≤当日涨跌幅<2%；3 表示：2%≤当日涨跌幅<3%； 4 表示：3%≤当日涨跌幅<4%；5 表示：4%≤当日涨跌幅。评级仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 议。 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失， ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 6 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 525 元/吨，日涨幅 0.11%，夜盘收 5248 元/吨；SR609 合约 | | | | | 收盘价 5269 元/吨，日涨幅 0.06，夜盘收 5260 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5282 元/吨，上涨 2 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间为 | | | | | 5280~5360 元/吨，下调 10~20 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5110~5200 元/吨，下调 10 | | | | | 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5900 元/吨，个别下调 10 元/吨。。 | | ...

联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 昨日 | SR601 | 合约收盘价 | 5256 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.59%。夜盘收于 | 5295 | 元/吨；SR605 | 合 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 约收盘价 | 5155 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.57%。夜盘收于 | 5192 | 元/吨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 | 5218 | 元/吨，上涨 | 9 | 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间为 | 5250~5370 | 元/吨，持平；云南制糖集团报价 | 5110~5230 | 元/吨，个别下调 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Provincial Committee of the Communist Party of China has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the development of tropical characteristic efficient agriculture as a key industry for Hainan's economy [1] Group 1: Agricultural Development - The plan aims to enhance the quality and efficiency of tropical characteristic agriculture, focusing on market demand, brand building, and differentiation as core strategies [1] - The initiative includes a comprehensive approach to develop the entire natural rubber industry chain for high-quality growth [1] - There is a commitment to strengthen the core competitiveness of key industries such as tropical fruits and winter melons, while promoting the cultivation and introduction of "novel and superior" varieties [1] Group 2: Fisheries and Livestock - The fisheries sector will undergo a transformation with a focus on modern fishery industrial parks and deep-sea aquaculture, positioning fisheries as a new growth driver for agricultural economy [1] - Livestock farming is set to transition towards ecological and facility-based upgrades [1] Group 3: Additional Agricultural Sectors - The plan encourages the development of under-forest economies and specialty industries such as tropical flowers and seedlings [1] - There is an emphasis on strengthening international agricultural cooperation in tropical regions, including the establishment of an international tropical agricultural science cooperation organization to build a global tropical agriculture center [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The beef price is expected to continue rising, indicating a potential reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The pig industry is undergoing a "de-involution," which is likely to support long-term pig prices [1][3]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to benefit from seasonal demand recovery, with limited supply fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights a steady increase in beef prices, with the average market price at 66.54 yuan/kg as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83% [2][3]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 4% [1][3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The report notes that the pig price is supported by industry adjustments, with a current price of 11.19 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 yuan/kg, down 0.45% week-on-week and down 24.13% year-on-year [1][3]. 2.2 Poultry - The price of broiler chickens is 7.19 yuan/kg, up 0.56% week-on-week, while chick prices are slightly down at 3.47 yuan/each [1][3]. - The report indicates that the supply of yellow chickens remains stable, with prices showing slight increases [1][3]. 2.3 Beef - The beef market is experiencing a new round of price increases, with expectations for a bullish cycle in 2025 [2][3]. - The average price of raw milk is 3.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decrease of 3% [2][3]. 2.4 Feed - The report emphasizes that the feed industry is benefiting from deeper industrialization and clearer division of labor, with leading companies expected to gain competitive advantages [3][4]. 2.5 Other Commodities - Soybean meal prices are stable, with a current price of 3100 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.98% [2][3]. - Corn prices are also on a mild upward trend, currently at 2254 yuan/ton, up 1.21% week-on-week [2][3]. 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Agriculture are rated as "Outperform" with respective prices of 4.36 yuan and 1.34 yuan [4]. - Mu Yuan Co. is highlighted with a projected EPS of 3.57 yuan for 2025, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Liberian rubber industry is experiencing a critical turning point after a long period of turmoil, marked by the establishment of an independent pricing committee that breaks the buyer's monopoly on pricing and enhances price transparency, leading to stable incomes for farmers [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The government has distributed 200,000 high-yield rubber seedlings and established nurseries to improve the industry's foundation [1] - The establishment of the independent pricing committee is a significant step towards achieving price transparency in the rubber market [1] Group 2: Structural Challenges - Deep structural issues remain prominent, including severe funding shortages for the Rubber Development Fund, which is forced to operate under a "gentlemen's agreement," hindering effective oversight of millions of dollars in fees [1] - The lack of an agricultural financing system makes it difficult for smallholder farmers to expand production [1] - Weak regulatory capacity has led to obstacles in compliance reviews [1] Group 3: Government Initiatives - President Boakai's agricultural reform agenda has injected vitality into the industry, but without addressing funding and regulatory challenges, the rubber revival movement will face significant hurdles [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Core Insights - Financial institutions in Hainan are innovating products and services tailored to different industries, providing customized financial solutions to support the development of the Hainan Free Trade Port [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Support for Key Industries - The China Bank Hainan Branch supported the construction of 60 offshore wind turbines with a capacity of 10 megawatts each, showcasing the role of financial institutions in renewable energy projects [2]. - The Construction Bank Hainan Branch provided 50 million yuan in credit to the Hainan Aerospace Chip Industry Park, facilitating the production of semiconductor chips that fill a gap in Hainan's semiconductor industry [2]. - The issuance of 350 million yuan in innovative agricultural technology bonds by Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group marks a new financing path for agricultural enterprises [4]. Group 2: Technological and Green Finance Innovations - The "Qiong Ke Loan" product by China Bank Hainan Branch offers credit support to technology enterprises, while the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Hainan Branch has introduced a "patent pledge financing" model to convert intellectual property into assets [3]. - Hainan financial institutions have increased credit investments in ecological projects, with the National Development Bank Hainan Branch designing "blue bonds" for marine ecological protection [4]. - As of the end of September, the balance of green loans in Hainan reached 166.8 billion yuan, an increase of 27.4 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, supporting the construction of the national ecological civilization pilot zone [4]. Group 3: Inclusive Finance Initiatives - The Postal Savings Bank's "Assist Farmers Cloud" platform and Hainan Rural Commercial Bank's various online products, such as rural revitalization loans, have enhanced access to finance for small and micro enterprises [4]. - The Agricultural Bank of China Hainan Branch has introduced specialized loan products like "Rubber Loan" and "Betel Nut Loan" to support rural economic development [4]. - By the end of October, the total balance of loans from financial institutions in Hainan reached 1.4096 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [4].