证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 持续推荐国内全面复苏的工程机械；建议关 注液冷新技术的设备投资机会 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、先导智能、长川科技、 华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精工、杭可科 技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【工程机械】9 月国内非挖大幅转正，国内全面开启周期向上 9 月 国内汽车起重机 / 履带起重机 / 随车起重机 / 塔式起重机销量同比分别 +41%/+67%/+30%/-30%，除塔吊以外起重机已经大幅转正，塔吊降幅也继续缩窄，国 内已全面开启周期向上。海外方面，短期来看挖机&非挖持续表现优异，全年重视大挖 出口占比提升带来的利润弹性；长期看海外市场广阔，2025 年起海外开启周期向上， 长期仍有市占率大幅提升空间，未来 2-3 年板块业绩确定性较强。相关标的：三一重 工、某全品类龙头、中联重科、柳工、山推股份、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 30.85 billion, 37.52 billion, and 44.14 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17x, 14x, and 12x [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported steady revenue growth, achieving 10.42 billion in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.49%, and a net profit of 1.808 billion, up 13.11% year-on-year. The gross margin was 31.29%, down 3.73 percentage points, while the net margin was 17.9%, down 2.59 percentage points [1]. - The company has significantly increased its contract liabilities and advance payments, with contract liabilities rising from 1.303 billion at the end of 2024 to 1.654 billion, and advance payments increasing from 0.547 billion to 1.141 billion, providing support for future business growth [2]. - The company continues to maintain a leading position in the oil and gas sector, securing large overseas contracts and increasing market share in high-end equipment, particularly in electric fracturing projects and partnerships with major oil companies [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, the company expects total revenue of 13.355 billion, with a projected growth rate of -4.0%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to rise to 16.190 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 21.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.627 billion in 2024A, increasing to 3.085 billion in 2025E, with growth rates of 7.0% and 17.4% respectively [5][9]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 33.70% in 2024A, slightly decreasing to 33.36% in 2025E, while the net profit margin is expected to be 19.67% in 2024A and 19.06% in 2025E [8][9].

Group 1: Excavator Sales - In September, a total of 19,858 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%, with domestic sales of 9,249 units (+22%) and export sales of 10,609 units (+29%), significantly exceeding market expectations [1][3][4] - The domestic excavator market has shown a clear upward trend from June to September, supported by factors such as labor substitution and water conservancy funding, despite weak fundamentals in real estate and infrastructure [1][3] - The structure of excavators in China is expected to shift towards a higher proportion of small excavators, which will continue to provide a stabilizing effect on the domestic market [1][3] Group 2: Oilfield Equipment - On October 10, international oil prices fell by approximately 2%, with Brent crude priced at $64 per barrel, primarily due to renewed tariffs announced by Trump and concerns over international trade [2][4] - The decline in oil prices is not expected to significantly impact the demand for oilfield equipment in the medium term, as the cost of oil production in the Middle East remains low and above the breakeven point [2][4] - The demand for LNG as a transitional energy source is expected to sustain, with continued capital expenditure growth in the Middle East, driving up equipment demand [2][4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies recommended for investment in the excavator sector include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [1][3] - In the oilfield equipment sector, companies such as Jereh and Neway are highlighted as strong players due to high barriers to entry and increasing domestic market share [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment sector, with a strong recommendation for domestic demand exceeding expectations in engineering machinery and a strong push for oil service equipment with high growth certainty [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in excavator sales, with a total of 19,858 units sold in September, representing a 25% year-on-year increase, driven by structural improvements and strong export demand [2]. - In the oil service equipment sector, the report notes that the impact of U.S. tariffs and falling oil prices on overseas operations is limited, with ongoing expansion in the Middle East and increasing domestic market share for local manufacturers [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of humanoid robots and the upcoming launches of key products from Tesla and Yushun, suggesting a focus on core stocks in this area [3]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic production capabilities due to U.S. export controls, with a focus on enhancing the localization rate of critical manufacturing equipment [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales in September reached 19,858 units, up 25% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 9,249 units (up 22%) and exports at 10,609 units (up 29%) [2]. - The report suggests that despite weak fundamentals in real estate and infrastructure, factors like machine replacement and water conservancy funding are supporting the growth of small excavators [2]. Oil Service Equipment - The report indicates that the recent drop in oil prices is unlikely to significantly affect the demand for oil service equipment, particularly in the Middle East, where production costs are low [3]. - It recommends focusing on companies like Jereh and Neway, which are well-positioned in this high-barrier market [3]. Humanoid Robots - The launch of the Zhiyuan G2 robot is highlighted, with features that enhance its operational capabilities, and the report anticipates significant market catalysts from Tesla's Gen3 and Yushun's upcoming products [3]. Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the implications of U.S. export controls on semiconductor equipment, predicting a rise in domestic production capabilities and investment opportunities in various segments of semiconductor manufacturing [4]. Lithium Battery Equipment - The report notes that recent export controls do not equate to a ban, and companies with compliance capabilities are expected to benefit from stable overseas market shares [8]. - It highlights the resurgence of demand for equipment suppliers as domestic battery manufacturers ramp up production in response to increasing sales of electric vehicles and energy storage systems [8]. Overall Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on a diverse range of companies across sectors, including engineering machinery, oil service equipment, humanoid robots, semiconductor equipment, and lithium battery equipment, indicating a robust outlook for these industries [1][4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the short-term pullback in oil service equipment and lithium battery equipment, while highlighting the historic opportunity for the increase in domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - The impact of US tariffs and falling oil prices on overseas operations is limited, with long-term logic driven by oil and gas expansion in the Middle East and increased domestic market share [2] - Brent crude oil price fell to $64 per barrel on October 10, primarily due to trade concerns and OPEC+ production increases [2] - Middle Eastern oil producers are expected to continue expanding production despite lower oil prices, as their production costs remain significantly below breakeven levels [2] - Recommended stocks include strong players in high-barrier markets such as Jerry Holdings and Neway Valve [2] Lithium Battery Equipment - Export controls do not equate to a ban on exports, and leading equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from stable overseas market shares and improved profitability [2] - The demand for lithium battery equipment is anticipated to grow as domestic battery manufacturers ramp up production in response to rising sales of new energy vehicles [2] - Key recommended companies include leading line equipment suppliers like Sieng Intelligent and laser welding equipment manufacturers like Lianying Laser [2] Semiconductor Equipment - The US's strengthened export controls on semiconductor equipment are expected to benefit domestic manufacturers by increasing their market share [3] - The report forecasts rapid increases in localization rates for core process equipment in domestic wafer fabs, driven by rising storage prices and domestic advanced process expansions [3] - Investment suggestions include companies specializing in etching and thin film deposition equipment such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei Electronics [3] General Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on a diversified portfolio of companies across various segments, including semiconductor, oil service, and lithium battery equipment, to capitalize on growth opportunities in the mechanical equipment industry [1][12]

Summary of Conference Call on Oil Service Equipment Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the oil service equipment industry, specifically highlighting the companies **Jereh** and **Neway** as key players in this sector [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Performance of Jereh and Neway**: Both companies have shown outstanding performance, with market capitalizations exceeding 30 billion yuan and profits of approximately 3 billion yuan for Jereh and 1.5 billion yuan for Neway. Their current price-to-earnings ratios are 12x and 15x respectively, indicating strong earnings elasticity [1][2]. - **China-Middle East Relations**: The close relationship between China and Middle Eastern countries benefits Chinese companies in engineering machinery, mining, and oil service equipment sectors. China is transitioning from a financial investor to a project contractor and shareholder, deepening cooperation with Middle Eastern nations [1][4]. - **Energy Supply-Demand Mismatch**: The Middle East faces challenges due to a mismatch in fossil energy supply and demand, exacerbated by the rise of electric vehicles reducing oil demand. The region aims to maintain high oil prices by reducing oil supply while increasing natural gas extraction, creating market opportunities for Chinese natural gas equipment exports [1][5]. - **Long-term Energy Strategy**: In the medium to long term, the Middle East plans to decrease oil extraction to stabilize oil prices and increase natural gas production to meet domestic electricity needs. The cost of natural gas for domestic use is significantly lower than LNG exports, allowing for better supply-demand balance and sustained high income [6][7]. - **Gas Turbine Market Demand**: The global gas turbine market is expected to grow by 30% in 2025, with significant demand concentrated in North America and the Middle East. The U.S. market is projected to grow by 147%, while the Middle East is expected to see a 200% increase, primarily driven by data center applications [8]. Additional Important Points - **Investment in AI Data Centers**: Middle Eastern countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are investing heavily in AI data centers, purchasing significant quantities of high-end chips to transform into high-tech and service-oriented economies [3][10]. - **Challenges in Energy Development**: The Middle East faces challenges such as water scarcity and a singular energy structure reliant on oil and gas. The region is focusing on increasing natural gas capital expenditure to reduce oil-fired power generation and stabilize oil prices [9]. - **Opportunities for Chinese Companies**: Companies like Jereh and Neway are positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the Middle East, with expectations of increased participation in project contracting and integrated service solutions [13]. - **Future Prospects for Jereh and Neway**: Both companies are expected to benefit from China's growing strength and improved relations with the Middle East. Their low valuations suggest significant investment potential, with Jereh at 12x and Neway at 15x by 2026 [18][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, emphasizing the strategic positioning of Jereh and Neway within the evolving landscape of the oil service equipment industry and the broader implications of geopolitical and market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, with a focus on AI equipment and oil service equipment [1]. Core Insights - The rapid development of AI chips is expected to drive demand for advanced testing and packaging equipment, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2][20]. - The PCB equipment market is set to benefit from significant investments in AI infrastructure, with major players expanding their production capacities [3][44]. - The oil service equipment sector is poised for growth due to Saudi Aramco's plans to initiate 85 major projects over the next three years, which will create substantial demand for related products and services [9]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - The demand for high-performance testing machines is increasing due to the complexity of AI chips and advanced storage chips, which require enhanced testing capabilities [2][21]. - The advanced packaging technology CoWoS is crucial for GPU and HBM interconnects, leading to a surge in demand for advanced packaging equipment [2][22]. - The semiconductor testing equipment market is projected to exceed $13.8 billion by 2025, with significant contributions from SoC and storage testing machines [21]. PCB Equipment - The AI infrastructure investment by Alibaba is expected to significantly boost the PCB market, with leading companies expanding their high-end HDI production capacities [3][4]. - The report highlights the increasing complexity and investment inflation in PCB production processes, particularly in drilling and exposure stages [4][44]. - Major PCB manufacturers are actively expanding their capacities to meet the rising demand for high-performance PCBs driven by AI servers [44][46]. Oil Service Equipment - Saudi Aramco's upcoming projects will require extensive procurement of materials and equipment, benefiting companies with technological advantages in the oil service sector [9]. - Companies like Neway and Jereh are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for oil service equipment due to their established relationships and capabilities [9]. Carbon Silicon - The report emphasizes the potential of single crystal silicon carbide (SiC) in enhancing the performance of CoWoS structures, which is critical for high-power GPU applications [5]. - The successful launch of a 12-inch SiC substrate processing line by Jing Sheng marks a significant advancement in domestic SiC technology [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Huafeng Measurement and Changchuan Technology for testing equipment, and Jing Sheng for packaging equipment, as they are expected to benefit from the growth in AI chip production [2][22]. - In the PCB sector, companies like Dazhu CNC and East China Electric are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [43][46].

Macro Strategy - The September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with guidance indicating two more cuts within the year and an additional cut next year, which is more hawkish than market expectations [1][17] - Powell's statements on employment and inflation were consistent with the August Jackson Hole meeting, lacking significant dovish information, leading to volatile movements in major asset classes [1][17] - The focus is shifting towards the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential political pressures influencing future rate cuts and increasing dollar credit risks [1][17] Fixed Income - The convertible bond market experienced fluctuations, with high-priced bonds outperforming mid and low-priced ones, indicating a highly structured opportunity landscape driven by the current equity market [2][19] - The China convertible bond index has risen over 30% since its low in August 2024, with a corresponding increase in the premium rate of about 8-12 percentage points [2][19] - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 20.052 billion yuan this week, a significant increase from the previous week, indicating strong market interest [4][23] Industry Insights - In the semiconductor equipment sector, domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit significantly from the development of domestic computing power chips [12] - The oil service equipment industry is poised to gain from Saudi Aramco's plan to initiate 85 major projects over the next three years, with specific recommendations for companies like Jereh and Neway [13] - The precision manufacturing sector, particularly in 3C electronics, is highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Fuliwang expected to see significant profit increases from 2025 to 2027 [16]

Group 1: Green Bonds Market - In the week from September 8 to September 12, 2025, a total of 23 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of approximately 20.052 billion yuan, an increase of 11.285 billion yuan compared to the previous week [1] - The total trading volume of green bonds in the secondary market for the same week was 50.9 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.7 billion yuan from the previous week [1] - The top three types of bonds traded were non-financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest rate bonds, with trading volumes of 24.4 billion yuan, 18.5 billion yuan, and 6.7 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - Huawei announced its three-year development roadmap for the Ascend AI chip at the Shanghai Connect Conference, planning to launch four new products from 2026 to 2028 and introduced self-developed HBM technology and ultra-node interconnect solutions [1] - The domestic computing chip market share is expected to rise rapidly as Chinese internet regulators have instructed major tech companies to stop purchasing all AI chips from NVIDIA and terminate existing orders [2] - The demand for advanced packaging in computing chips is beneficial for equipment manufacturers, as training cards were previously solely supplied by NVIDIA, while inference cards can be produced with strong cost performance on domestic 12nm process platforms [2] Group 3: Saudi Aramco Projects - Saudi Aramco plans to execute 85 major projects over the next three years, covering oil and gas production, pipeline networks, and civil infrastructure [2] - The oil and petrochemical sectors will play a significant role, with 20 projects focused on upgrading oil, gas, and refining facilities, particularly in sulfur recovery systems, gas field compression systems, and refining installations [2] - The procurement list for these projects includes 21,000 kilometers of carbon steel pipelines, 2.2 million tons of structural steel, 41,000 kilometers of cables, and 1,700 kilometers of power transmission lines [2] Group 4: Capital Expenditure Guidance - Saudi Aramco's capital expenditure guidance for 2025 remains in the range of 52 billion to 58 billion USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% to 15% [3] - The continued growth in capital expenditure indicates sustainable demand for oil service equipment, benefiting leading companies with technological advantages and market access [3]

Macro Strategy - The September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with guidance indicating two more cuts within the year and an additional cut next year, which is more hawkish than market expectations [1][17] - Powell's statements on employment and inflation were consistent with the August Jackson Hole meeting, lacking significant dovish information, leading to volatile movements in major asset classes [1][17] - The focus is shifting towards the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential political pressures influencing future rate cuts and increasing dollar credit risks [1][17] Fixed Income Market - The convertible bond market experienced fluctuations, with high-priced bonds outperforming mid and low-priced ones, indicating a highly structured opportunity landscape driven by the current equity market [2][19] - The China convertible bond index has risen over 30% since August 2024, with a corresponding increase in the premium rate, suggesting a potential upward shift in the index amid improving corporate performance and increased refinancing needs in the tech sector [2][19] - The issuance of green bonds saw a significant increase, with 23 new bonds issued totaling approximately 20.052 billion yuan, reflecting a growing market interest [4][22] Industry Insights - In the semiconductor equipment sector, domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the development of domestic computing power chips, with specific companies recommended for investment [12] - The oil service equipment industry is poised to benefit from Saudi Aramco's plans to initiate 85 major projects over three years, with specific companies highlighted for their strong growth potential [13] - Hikvision is positioned as a global leader in the security industry, expanding its digital transformation capabilities through innovative business segments, including industrial IoT and smart logistics [14][15]