Q&A 2026 年机械行业的主要投资主线是什么？ 机械团队 26 年年度策略：重点推荐装备出海+AI 设备高 景气机会 20251214 摘要 工程机械行业性价比高，利润增长依赖海外市场，国内市场困境反转。 三一重工和徐工机械估值分别为 16 倍和 10 倍出头，增长潜力可观，建 议超配。 叉车市场前景广阔，欧美降息刺激需求，无人叉车技术成熟。推荐关注 中力、杭叉和合力，受益于无人叉车产业趋势和欧美市场人力成本优势。 出口链受益于美国降息和欧美制造业复苏预期，光伏设备行业关注硅料 公司收储和下游整合，新技术可能引发扩产需求。 纽威股份具有高性价比，订单增速快，平台化布局潜力大，重点发力水 阀门和电力阀门，未来估值有望提升。 看好北方华创、中微公司、微导和迈为，受益于存储扩产预期和国产化 率提高，头部厂商订单有望大幅增长。 光伏设备行业关注迈为出海战略和奥特维的技术创新带来的资本开支机 会，一旦市场修复，奥特维可能率先反应。 PCB 板块钻孔环节存在历史性机遇，下游资本支出增速高，进口替代逻 辑强，技术迭代速度快，看好大族数控。 哪些细分方向和个股在 2026 年最值得关注？ 在工程机械领域，我们最看好头部主 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2026年度，美联储降息周期下，海外需求或于2026年进入新 一轮上行周期，工程机械出口有望延续景气，形成国内外共振局面。内需有望β筑底需求景气度改善， 推荐FA/注塑机/检测/机床行业的α标的；高景气赛道上，该行认为AI催化下的PCB设备/液冷产业链/柴 发&燃气轮机迎来黄金期。新技术方面，人形机器人量产仍需打通降本关键一环，国产零部件厂商有望 充分受益。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 装备出海：油服设备面向沙漠寻蓝海市场，工程机械出口一带一路景气高 工程机械：2025年工程机械板块国内全面复苏&出口温和复苏，看好盈利质量持续提升。内需方面，在 资金到位情况的扰动下，该行判断此轮周期将呈现斜率较低但周期较长的特征；外需方面，美联储降息 周期下，海外需求有望于2026年进入新一轮上行周期，形成国内外共振局面。工程机械重点推荐出口盈 利贡献较高的三一重工(600031.SH)、徐工机械(000425.SZ)、中联重科(000157.SZ)、柳工(000528.SZ)、 恒立液压(601100.SH)。 半导体设备：景气复苏+国产替代共振，AI&存储周期带动设备高增。国产设备率先 ...

Group 1: Equipment Export - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a full domestic recovery and moderate export recovery in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 12% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [52] - Key recommended companies for engineering machinery include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, which are expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand [3][52] - The oil service equipment sector is poised for significant growth due to historical opportunities in the Middle East and the Belt and Road Initiative, with recommended companies including Jereh and Neway [3] Group 2: Domestic Demand Improvement - The photovoltaic equipment sector is entering a platform integration phase, with significant advancements in perovskite and heterojunction technologies, leading to increased equipment value [3] - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit from ongoing capacity expansions and solid-state battery technology, with recommended companies including Lead Intelligent and Hanke Technology [4] - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a recovery driven by domestic substitution and AI-related demand, with key recommendations including Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei [4] Group 3: High-Growth Sectors - The PCB equipment sector is entering a new expansion cycle driven by AI, with high demand for advanced HDI and SLP boards, with recommended companies including Dazhu CNC and Ding Tai High-Tech [5] - The liquid cooling equipment market is growing rapidly as it becomes a standard for AI server cooling, with key recommendations including Hongsheng and a focus on Invec [5] - The gas turbine and diesel generator sectors are expected to see significant growth due to increased electricity demand driven by AI, with recommended companies including Jereh and Yingliu [5] Group 4: New Technologies and Directions - The mass production of humanoid robots is anticipated, with domestic component manufacturers expected to benefit from cost reductions, with recommended companies including Hengli Hydraulic and New Coordinates [5] - The integration of new technologies in the photovoltaic sector is leading to industry transformation, with a focus on innovative solutions [5] Group 5: Performance Analysis - The semiconductor equipment and PCB equipment sectors are leading in revenue growth, with semiconductor equipment benefiting from advanced process expansions and PCB equipment driven by AI server demand [33] - The profit growth in the PCB equipment and general automation sectors is notable, with improvements in product structure and scale effects [33] - The overall machinery sector is experiencing a mild upward trend, with significant performance disparities among sub-sectors [11][20]

中金研究 展望2026年，我们判断机械行业中科技创新板块仍具备显著投资机会；其次，出口端虽面临不确定性，但随着国际化进程推进，叠加美联储降息落地 等，我们认为外需存结构性机遇；内需层面，下游短期难见大范围产能扩张，但随着产能出清和通用企业向成长行业转型，股价有望反弹。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract AI基建：高景气资本开支和高频技术迭代带来机械发展新机遇。 1）海外算力资本开支超预期，行业扩产带动PCB设备和AIDC设备需求持续高增，全球 供给紧张，钻孔设备、柴油发动机、燃气轮机等有望迎来国产替代机会。2）AI算力升级催生设备及耗材新需求，下一代芯片Rubin在PCB、散热等架构上 创新，提高了PCB耗材和冷板、快接头等结构件的加工要求，并带动微通道液冷等新技术方案，设备及耗材价值量有望进一步提升。 人形机器人：2026年 产业 进度加速，关注头部扩产。 国产企业如宇树、智元等公司有望陆续上市，国产人形机器人性能快速迭代，应用场景合作生态加 速打开。重视软硬件技术发展，关注汽车、消费电子零部件跨界切入。 专用设备：关注景气拐点和技术变革的子赛道。 供给出清+技术创新趋势，看好：1）存在技术变革或技 ...

Market Performance - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 3.91% during the trading days from November 24 to November 28, 2025, ranking 7th among 31 primary industry categories [1] - Year-to-date performance shows the SW Machinery Equipment Index up by 30.48%, ranking 6th among the same categories, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 15.04% [1] Core Insights - The demand for gas turbines is expected to rise due to AI, with significant growth in power consumption from data centers in the U.S., projected to increase from 8.9 GW to 111.3 GW between 2025 and 2028 [2] - The turbine blades, being core components of gas turbines, face a global supply shortage, with 应流股份 positioned as a leading domestic supplier, already supplying blades for Siemens Energy and developing blades for H-class gas turbines [2] - 应流股份 has strengthened its collaboration with Baker Hughes, securing future orders for multiple gas turbine blades, indicating a robust outlook for export orders [2] Company Developments - 优必选 has secured two significant contracts totaling 4.07 billion yuan for humanoid robot projects, with the Walker series orders reaching 1.3 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - The company is expected to see a pivotal year in 2025 for humanoid robot deliveries and commercialization, coinciding with the IPO of 宇树科技 and Tesla's production ramp-up [3] - The 合肥 BEST fusion project has seen over 2 billion yuan in tenders in November alone, indicating an acceleration in fusion project bidding as construction progresses [3] Industry Trends - General machinery is under continuous pressure, while engineering machinery is accelerating upward [3] - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, oil service equipment is stabilizing at the bottom, railway equipment is steadily increasing, and gas turbines are showing stable growth [3]

杰瑞股份 20251128 杰瑞股份为何能够成功进入北美数据中心市场？ 杰瑞股份成功进入北美数据中心市场主要得益于其成撬商模式及定制化能力。 燃气轮机发电机组由两部分组成：燃气轮机本身和发电机。其中，燃气轮机占 总成本的 50%至 60%，剩余部分由杰瑞自研生产。这些定制化要求高且技术 复杂，需要工程师具备较强设计和组装能力。 西门子等主流厂商选择将小型燃 气轮机交给杰瑞进行成撬，是因为小型燃气轮机相比大型燃气轮机制造壁垒低、 后市场盈利空间小，而成撬过程涉及大量人力成本，杰瑞在这方面具有成本优 势。此外，小型燃气轮机制造过程中需要高度定制化服务，而这是杰瑞擅长之 处。因此，西门子等厂商将部分产能交给像杰瑞这样的专业成撬商，以提高整 体效率与盈利能力。 燃气轮机发电业务的盈利模式及前景如何？ 燃气轮机发电业务有两种主要盈利模式：租赁和销售。租赁模式下，每兆瓦每 年的租金约为 200 万至 250 万人民币，而销售价格则约为每兆瓦 700 万人民 币。从盈利角度看，租赁模式下毛利率可达 70%至 80%，净利润率可达 40% 至 50%，远高于销售模式。因此，在需求紧缺情况下，租赁模式更具吸引力。 截至目前，杰 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, specifically recommending AI equipment, humanoid robots, and related sectors [1]. Core Insights - The expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. is driving increased demand for power generation, particularly benefiting domestic equipment manufacturers [2]. - The introduction of Google's Gemini 3 model indicates a sustained growth in AI computing infrastructure, leading to increased demand for PCB and liquid cooling equipment [3]. - The humanoid robot sector is expected to experience a significant upward trend, particularly with upcoming catalysts in December and early 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - The report suggests a focus on companies such as North China Huachuang, SANY Heavy Industry, Zhongwei Company, and others across various segments including semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and automation [1][13]. Investment Highlights - **Gas Turbines**: The U.S. AI data center expansion is expected to boost demand for gas turbine power generation, with significant opportunities for domestic brands like Jereh and Haomai Technology [2]. - **AI Equipment**: The performance of Google's Gemini 3 has exceeded expectations, indicating a robust demand for AI computing infrastructure, particularly in PCB and liquid cooling solutions [3]. - **Humanoid Robots**: The humanoid robot sector is poised for a major rally, driven by key developments from Tesla and other domestic players [4]. Industry Trends - The mechanical equipment sector is projected to recover, with a focus on electric forklifts and automation solutions driven by labor shortages and technological advancements [17][49]. - The global market for warehouse automation solutions is expected to grow significantly, with AMR solutions leading the way due to their efficiency and flexibility [49]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts substantial growth in net profits for various companies within the sector, with specific projections for 2025-2027 indicating a positive outlook for companies like Zhongli and Jereh [19][25][32].

Group 1: Excavator Sales and Market Outlook - In October, domestic excavator sales increased by 2.4% year-on-year, while exports rose by 12.9% [3] - Total excavator sales in October reached 18,096 units, marking a 7.77% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 8,468 units and exports at 9,628 units [3] - The domestic market is expected to remain stable, driven by demand from water conservancy projects and labor substitution, while overseas markets show strong capital expenditure in mining sectors [3] Group 2: Oil Service Equipment and Saudi Aramco - Saudi Aramco reported a Q3 adjusted net profit of $28 billion and operating cash flow of $36.1 billion, both showing slight year-on-year increases [4] - The company has adjusted its natural gas production capacity goals, increasing the target growth from over 60% to approximately 80% by 2030 [4] - The demand for oil service equipment is expected to rise due to ongoing energy transition and increased investment in downstream operations [4][5] Group 3: Robotics Sector and Upcoming Catalysts - The robotics sector is anticipated to experience a significant upward trend in November, driven by key events such as Tesla's third-generation robot release and the IPO application of Yushu [5] - Core stocks in the robotics supply chain are recommended for focus, including Top Group, Zhejiang Rongtai, and Hengli Hydraulic [5] - The sector is expected to benefit from concentrated catalysts in the upcoming months, suggesting a favorable investment environment [5]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The core inflation continues to rise steadily, with October CPI increasing by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while PPI shows a year-on-year decline of 2.1% but a month-on-month recovery to 0.1% [3][5] - The main drivers for the recent rise in core CPI include anti-involution governance, fiscal stimulus, and rising gold prices, while long-term recovery relies on improving consumer capacity and high-quality consumption scenarios [3][5] - Food price drag has lessened, with core service prices rising seasonally, reaching the highest level since March 2024 [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The strong dollar has led to outflows of foreign capital from Hong Kong stocks, with a net outflow of 791.8 million HKD since the end of September [9][10] - The dollar's strength is attributed to U.S. government shutdowns, hawkish Fed statements, and weakness in non-dollar currencies, impacting liquidity in Hong Kong [8][9] - Despite short-term pressures, the Hong Kong market is expected to reach new highs in the medium term, driven by inflows of incremental capital and high-quality assets [10] Group 3: Aviation Sector Outlook - The Chinese aviation sector is entering a "super cycle," with a significant rise in profitability expected as supply and demand recover, leading to higher ticket prices [14][15] - The supply side is constrained by airspace bottlenecks, while demand is supported by a growing aviation population and recovery in customer structure [14] - The long-term logic of the aviation sector suggests a strategic increase in positions, particularly in high-quality networks, as demand continues to strengthen [15] Group 4: Machinery Industry Performance - The machinery industry is projected to see overall improvement by 2025, with significant revenue growth and profit increases reported in the first three quarters of 2025 [17] - Key growth areas include humanoid robots and engineering machinery, driven by advancements in AI manufacturing and increased orders from overseas markets [18] - The energy equipment sector is also recovering, with a focus on rational competition and price recovery in the photovoltaic equipment market [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in oil service equipment and engineering machinery driven by domestic demand and overseas expansion [1]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment sector is expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand, with a notable increase in excavator sales projected for October 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.77% [1]. - The oil service equipment segment is poised for growth due to Saudi Aramco's increased natural gas production plans and the rising demand for domestic equipment in international markets [2]. - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to experience a surge in November 2025, driven by key catalysts such as Tesla's third-generation release and IPO applications from industry players [3]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44% year-on-year) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.9% year-on-year) [1]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the domestic market, particularly in small excavators driven by water conservancy projects and labor substitution [1]. - The overseas market is expected to see significant growth, particularly in regions like the US, Africa, and South America, with a strong outlook for the next 2-3 years [1]. Oil Service Equipment - Saudi Aramco's Q3 report indicated a net profit of $28 billion, with a focus on cost control and increased oil production to maintain cash flow [2]. - The company has raised its natural gas production target for 2030, which is expected to enhance the demand for oil service equipment [2]. - The report recommends companies like Jereh and Neway for their potential in the Middle Eastern market [2]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see a significant uptick in activity in November 2025, with several key industry events and product launches [3]. - The report identifies core companies in the humanoid robot supply chain, including Top Group and Zhejiang Rongtai, as potential investment opportunities [3]. - The focus is on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming technological advancements and market demand [3].