[Table_Title] 迎接轮动牛 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 27 日 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ►回顾：板块在牛市中轮动 7 月 21-25 日，类权益市场继续走强。截至 2025 年 7 月 25 日，万得全 A 收盘价为 5620.73，较 18 日上涨 2.21%；中证转 债同期上涨 2.14%，各价位估值均有所拉伸。 进入 7 月底，市场即将迎来宏观事件密集期，重要事件包括政 治局会议和中美贸易谈判。政治局会议方面，关注高层对当 前经济形势的判断和对扩内需、反内卷政策的定性，若不以偏 热为基调，牛市思维则不会受到明显冲击。中美贸易谈判方 面，关注美国借由芬太尼加征的 20%关税能否降低。 科技板块热度退坡&产业叙事强化的矛盾仍然存在，值得持续 关注。分行业来看，半导体有望受益于低位补涨行情，AI 热 点持续发酵，AI 算力和应用上涨空间仍存；机器人、深海科 技热度逐渐升温，同样值得继续关注。 此外，低位补涨行情或仍将延续。消费板块中的低位行业相 对较多（化妆品、白酒、白色家电等），科技板块的光学光 ...

在海南建设自由贸易港，是习近平总书记亲自谋划、亲自部署、亲自推动的改革开放重大举措。近年来，海南自贸港各项政策不断生效升级， 营商环境持续优化，高水平开放和高质量发展迈上新台阶。 海南自贸港全岛封关将于12月18日正式启动。让我们循着总书记的考察足迹，撷取部分场景，通过卫星视角感受海南自贸港建设新气象。 洋浦港是我国西部陆海新通道和海南自贸港建设重要的国际航运枢纽。2022年4月，习近平总书记来到位于海南儋州的洋浦国际集装箱码头小 铲滩港区，了解港口建设发展情况，同现场作业人员、挂职干部代表等亲切交流。 【总书记说】 振兴港口、发展运输业，要把握好定位，增强适配性，坚持绿色发展、生态优先，推动港口发展同洋浦经济开发区、自由贸易港建设相得益 彰、互促共进，更好服务建设西部陆海新通道、共建"一带一路"。 【建设新貌】 左右滑动看变化 目前， 洋浦港已累计开通30多条外贸航线，紧密连接东南亚、西非、北美、中东等地区及巴西、印度等国家。截至2024年底，海南已形成以 洋浦港为国际枢纽港、海口港为全国主要港口，八所港、三亚港、清澜港为地区性重要港口的"四方五港"格局，构建出"兼备内外贸、通达近 远洋"的航线格局。 三亚 ...

7月23日，国新办新闻发布会释放重磅消息：海南自贸港封关定于2025年12月18日正式启动。 全岛封关运作是海南自贸港建设的标志性工程，也是进一步扩大开放的重要举措。封关后对企业和人员往 来有何影响？有哪些新的税收政策？如何进一步推动海南自贸港高水平对外开放？围绕这些市场关切问 题，证券时报记者采访了海南省开放型经济研究会会长李世杰、安永华南区主管合伙人黄寅。 证券时报记者：如何看待海南自贸港建设以来的开放举措？ 黄寅： 海南自贸港开放政策聚焦系统性制度创新与多层次产业布局，正加速吸引全球资本与产业链集聚， 形成"政策红利—产业升级—投资虹吸"的良性循环。 证券时报记者：封关日期的确定，会给海南自贸港的建设带来哪些影响？ 李世杰： 海南在发展深海科技方面很有优势，但这并不意味着要把深海科技领域的所有环节都放在海南， 海南最有优势的地方在深海探测，因此只需要把组装和测试的环节放在本地发展即可。再比如卫星发射方 面，和甘肃酒泉相比，海南文昌更适合发射重载火箭，因为这里离赤道近，可节省发射燃料，同时航运也 更适合运输重载火箭。综合起来，海南并不适合发展产业链特别长的产业，但可以因地制宜地壮大深海科 技、生物医药等高 ...

7月23日，在国新办举行的新闻发布会上，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林表示，经党中央批准，海南自 贸港封关定于2025年12月18日正式启动。 "1978年12月18日，党的十一届三中全会开启了改革开放和社会主义现代化的伟大征程。在12月18日这 一天启动封关运作，具有重要象征意义，也是向世界展示我国坚定不移扩大高水平开放的决心和信 心。"王昌林表示，全岛封关运作是海南自贸港建设的标志性工程，是进一步扩大开放的重要举措，具 有里程碑意义。 "零关税"商品税目比例提高 全岛封关运作是海南自贸港开放发展新阶段的开始，也是一项长期持续推进的任务。王昌林透露，按照 总体方案关于"分步骤、分阶段建立自贸港政策制度体系"的要求，结合海南发展实际，国家发展改革委 会同有关方面制定了现阶段的封关政策措施。 具体可以概括为"四个更加"，即：更加优惠的货物"零关税"政策；更加宽松的贸易管理措施；更加便利 的通行措施；更加高效精准的监管模式。 财政部副部长廖岷介绍，与封关前相比，新政策呈现三大显著变化。首先是"零关税"商品覆盖面大幅提 升，由目前的1900个税目扩大至约6600个税目，占全部商品税目的74%，较封关前提高近53个百分点 ...

以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 本文来自微信公众号： 国民经略 ，作者：凯风，原文标题：《官宣！中国最大自贸港，来了》，题 图来自：AI生成 超级定位，带来超级机遇。 据官方透露，海南自贸港全岛封关将于今年12月18日正式启动，将实施以"'一线'放开、'二线'管 住、岛内自由"为基本特征的自由化便利化政策制度。 这是海南继1988年脱离广东建省、成为经济特区，2009年获批国际旅游岛，2018年建设全岛自贸 区、2020年获批自贸港之后，又一次巨大跨越。 未来的海南，不再只是国际旅游岛，将成为集国家重要对外开放门户、国际旅游消费中心、区域离岸 金融中心等为一体的最大自贸港。 海南全岛封关，标志着中国最大自贸港全面形成，影响有多大？ 一、海南全岛封关，意味着什 么？ "封关"是典型的海关术语，不等于"封岛"，而是形成特殊的"境内关外"监管区域。 这一模式，体现在12字核心定位："一线放开，二线管住，岛内自由"。 所谓"一线"，指的是海南与境外其他国家和地区之间；二线，则是海南自贸港与内地之间。 一线放开，即面向国际的放开，大多数商品将实行"零关税"。 官方表示 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent market focus has shifted to "anti-involution" and infrastructure sectors, which are more medium to long-term in nature[1] - As of July 21, the financing balance has risen to CNY 1,904.5 billion, approaching the March 20 high of CNY 1,940.2 billion[9] - The bull market atmosphere has led to increased risk-taking among investors, contributing to a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) mentality[9] Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector is expected to attract funds flowing out of the "anti-involution" and infrastructure sectors due to its solid logic and ongoing industrial narrative[2] - Semiconductor sector is poised for a rebound, with the ChiNext 50 index still undervalued compared to its position at the start of the technology bull market in February[20] - AI sector remains a focal point, with significant advancements and competition, including the anticipated release of GPT-5 this summer[23] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key areas to watch include semiconductors, AI, robotics, and deep-sea technology, which are expected to see strong performance[3] - The domestic GPU companies, such as Moer Thread and Muxi Co., have received IPO approvals, which may enhance market sentiment[20] - The deep-sea technology sector is gaining attention, particularly in relation to military and resource sectors, as highlighted in recent government meetings[28] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of accelerated style rotation in the equity market, which could impact technology investments[31] - Unexpected events in the technology sector could lead to significant changes in investment logic[31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that developing new productive forces is a crucial policy direction for the domestic economy, with technology innovation companies expected to achieve excess returns under a backdrop of liquidity easing [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation (Sci-Tech) 50 Index includes emerging industries such as domestic AI, deep-sea technology, and humanoid robots, benefiting from policy support and industry trends [1] - The domestic AI sector is being supported by national policies to build a self-controlled industrial chain, while deep-sea technology is recognized as a strategic emerging industry with continuous policy benefits expected to drive high-end equipment manufacturing and marine economy development [1] Group 2 - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating commercialization due to the resonance of policies and industry advancements, with key technological breakthroughs facilitating this process [1] - Overall, the industries related to the Sci-Tech 50 Index possess long-term growth potential driven by policy support and technological innovation [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation ETF tracks the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20%, and is composed of 50 stocks selected from the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Board and Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext Board [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent public fund reports reveal that high-performing funds have achieved impressive returns by focusing on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption, while also highlighting a trend towards thematic funds targeting niche markets [1][2][5]. Fund Performance and Holdings - High-performing funds have seen significant returns, with the Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Fund achieving a return rate of 102.52% this year, driven primarily by its focus on innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. - Many top-performing funds in the first half of the year are pharmaceutical-themed, including Zhongyin Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Huashan Pharmaceutical Biotechnology [2][3]. - The top holdings of several funds have shifted towards technology and pharmaceuticals, with notable new additions like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xin Yisheng in the top ten holdings of the China Europe Digital Economy Mixed Fund [3]. Thematic Funds and Sector Focus - Some actively managed funds have undergone significant portfolio changes, with a complete overhaul of their top holdings to focus on emerging sectors like robotics and short dramas [4]. - The Tongtai Industry Upgrade Mixed Fund increased its stock position from 30% to 90% and shifted its focus to robotics, while the Tongtai Huile Mixed Fund transitioned to short drama and gaming stocks [4]. - Fund companies are launching numerous thematic products targeting specific high-growth sectors, such as controllable nuclear fusion and deep-sea technology, indicating a trend towards specialized investment strategies [5]. Market Outlook - Fund managers maintain a positive outlook for the equity market in the third quarter, with confidence in the performance of related sectors [6]. - The Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Fund manager anticipates growth in innovative pharmaceuticals driven by overseas licensing and domestic sales, while the Tongtai Industry Upgrade Fund manager expects significant opportunities in the robotics sector due to increased production and technological advancements [6].

Core Insights - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 33 trillion yuan, indicating a steady growth in the industry and a diversification of product types [1] - Fund managers are actively exploring niche sectors such as deep-sea technology, controllable nuclear fusion, and satellite communication, alongside popular areas like artificial intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] Group 1: Fund Performance and Focus Areas - As of July 17, 2023, 19 public fund institutions have disclosed a total of 208 second-quarter reports, with Yongying Fund leading with 134 reports [1] - The Yongying Qiyuan Mixed Fund, established in August 2023, focuses on deep-sea technology, particularly in four core areas: deep-sea materials, detection, applications, and infrastructure [1] - The top ten holdings of the Yongying Qiyuan Mixed Fund include China Marine Defense, Zhongke Haixun, and Yaxing Anchor Chain [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The Yongying Manufacturing Upgrade Smart Selection Mixed Fund, launched in June 2023, targets controllable nuclear fusion, with top holdings including Xuguang Electronics and Guoguang Electric [2] - The fund manager emphasizes that controllable nuclear fusion could potentially replace traditional energy sources once commercialized, presenting significant investment opportunities despite its current developmental stage [2] - The exploration of niche investment directions is seen as a way for public fund managers to create differentiated advantages and enhance competitiveness in a highly competitive market [3] Group 3: Fund Structure and Market Dynamics - Initiating funds are considered an important method for public fund managers to enter niche sectors, as they have lower fundraising thresholds and can quickly capitalize on investment opportunities [3] - The requirement for fund managers to hold a portion of the fund shares for a certain period helps convey confidence in the products [3]

文/海歌 随着二季报披露，公募基金的"赛道豪赌"浮出水面——从创新药到短剧、机器人、可控核聚变，基金经 理们正以令人咋舌的速度切换战场。长城医药产业基金年内暴涨102.52%成"翻倍基"，而同泰产业升级 混合从清盘边缘逆袭重仓机器人，永赢基金更是推出可控核聚变、深海科技等"从0到1"赛道的发起式基 金。这场资本狂欢的背后，是基金公司对结构性行情的主动出击，更是对万亿级新兴产业的押注。 长城医药产业基金以102.52%的年内涨幅成为市场焦点，其成功密码在于对创新药赛道的精准把控。二 季度末，该基金前十大重仓股中，三生制药、信达生物、石药集团等港股创新药龙头占据六席，其中石 药集团单季加仓超1389万股 。基金经理梁福睿在季报中直言，创新药的海外授权和国内销售将成为核 心驱动力，例如三生制药与辉瑞的60亿美元合作大单，直接引爆股价。这种"港股+A股"的组合策略， 使得该基金在上半年斩获75%的收益，规模从一季度的3600万元暴增至11.32亿元，增幅超30倍 。 值得注意的是，医药主题基金集体爆发：中银港股通医药、永赢医药创新智选等产品年内回报率均超 60%，背后是国产创新药从"me-too"到"first-in ...