A 股点评报告：美伊冲突引发短期扰动 中 期向好趋势未改 2026 年 3 月 2 日 A 股策略 点评报告 分析师 林阳 电话：021-65465572 邮箱：linyang@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480524080001 观点： 美伊战争引发短期情绪扰动，中期回归基本面。短期整体以结构性影响为主，不改变市场长期向好趋势。短期情绪冲击 之后，市场有望短暂低开震荡后逐步企稳，主要是情绪性调仓，而非趋势性撤离，人民币资产全球范围内有一定的避险 效应，与美元相关性低，分散配置价值突出。一方面 A 股并非冲突直接参与方，冲击仅停留在情绪层面，未影响国内经 济基本面及市场流动性；另一方面，两会政策维稳预期较强，为市场提供支撑，预计市场在较短时间内可完成情绪修复， 市场逐步回归理性。随着短期情绪逐步消化，市场焦点将转向基本面传导，板块分化加剧。核心驱动因素是布伦特原油 高位震荡以及全球供应链局部扰动。资金将从高估值成长、下游消费板块逐步流出，向受益于地缘冲突的板块集中，其 中能源安全、国防安全、金融安全方向值得关注。民航、下游化工、高耗能制造等板块因成本上升需求承压。中期来看， 美伊战争为 A 股市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian armed forces are on "highest state of readiness" to respond to any threats or aggression, emphasizing a strong defensive posture while not intending to initiate conflict [1] Group 1: Military Readiness - The Iranian Air Force is enhancing its strategic role in active deterrence and defense preparedness against enemy threats [1] - Coordination among different military branches is highlighted, indicating a unified approach to national defense [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - Any aggressive actions by adversaries are warned to lead to their strategic failure and could escalate conflicts across the region, resulting in severe consequences for those who plan and support such actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of deep-sea technology as a national priority, highlighting its potential in resource security, defense, and the development of a blue economy [14][23][57]. Group 1: Deep-Sea Technology as a National Strategy - Deep-sea technology is positioned as a key national strategic focus, alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [14]. - The government has initiated large-scale application demonstrations for new technologies in deep-sea industries, marking a significant policy shift [14][23]. - Recent government reports have highlighted deep-sea technology for the first time, indicating its importance in future industrial development [14][23]. Group 2: Resource Security and Global Competition - The U.S. and Japan are actively pursuing deep-sea resource exploration, indicating a competitive landscape for global marine resources [25][31]. - The article notes that the U.S. has significant deep-sea mineral resources, with estimates suggesting over 1 billion tons of polymetallic nodules in its offshore areas [30]. - Japan plans to initiate experimental drilling for rare earth elements in its exclusive economic zone, aiming to reduce reliance on imports from China [31]. Group 3: Defense and National Security - The article discusses the need for enhanced underwater defense capabilities, as current security measures are deemed insufficient [50]. - The concept of a "water under the national gate" highlights vulnerabilities in underwater security, necessitating a robust defense strategy [50]. - The U.S. and Japan have established comprehensive military strategies focused on deep-sea operations, enhancing their maritime control [48][50]. Group 4: Blue Economy and Industrial Development - The blue economy is projected to be a trillion-dollar industry, with significant growth potential in sectors like deep-sea mining, aquaculture, and marine tourism [18][24]. - The deep-sea industry chain encompasses everything from basic materials to high-end equipment manufacturing, indicating a complex and interdisciplinary approach [73][74]. - The article outlines various emerging sectors within the blue economy, including deep-sea wind power and marine biotechnology [68][72]. Group 5: Policy and Regulatory Framework - Multiple regions in China are developing policies to promote deep-sea technology, with plans focusing on marine economic development and innovation [11][12]. - The article lists specific policy documents from provinces like Hainan and Shandong that aim to enhance deep-sea technology capabilities [13]. - The government's strategic plans emphasize the integration of deep-sea technology into broader economic and environmental goals [61].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced a ban on all dual-use item exports to Japan, particularly targeting military users, due to Japan's erroneous statements regarding Taiwan and its over-reliance on Chinese tungsten resources. This situation raises questions about whether China's control over tungsten resources can become a new leverage point in geopolitical dynamics [1]. Group 1: Tungsten's Strategic Importance - Tungsten is recognized as a critical industrial material due to its unique physical properties, including a melting point of 3422°C and hardness close to that of diamond, making it irreplaceable in high-end manufacturing [3]. - Tungsten is essential in various applications, such as ultra-hard drill bits for drilling through rock layers and turbine blades in jet engines, which must withstand extreme temperatures [4]. - The strategic value of tungsten is further emphasized in advanced technologies, including commercial spaceflight, where key components rely on tungsten [5]. Group 2: Global Tungsten Resource Distribution - China dominates the global tungsten market, holding 70% of the world's tungsten reserves and accounting for 82.7% of global production, meaning that 8.3 tons of every 10 tons of tungsten produced worldwide comes from China [8]. - Unlike silver, which relies on imports, tungsten is a core reserve resource for China, which has established a complete industrial chain from mining to recycling, allowing it to control both upstream and downstream resources [10]. - Vietnam's Nguon Tungsten Mine poses the only significant threat to China's tungsten market dominance, making Vietnam the second-largest tungsten producer globally, although its companies have not been profitable in this sector [12]. Group 3: Implications of Export Controls - Starting January 1, 2026, China will elevate tungsten export controls to the same level as rare earths, requiring clear documentation of export destinations and purposes, reflecting long-term considerations of global geopolitical dynamics and national security [15]. - The tightening of export controls aims to prevent illegal flows of tungsten into military applications and strengthen China's control over the global tungsten supply chain, impacting countries like the U.S. and Europe that heavily rely on imported tungsten [17]. - In the context of U.S.-China competition, tungsten has emerged as a strategic asset for China, with its monopolistic advantages in tungsten resources being more reliable than those in rare earths, thus enhancing its role in global industrial upgrades and international order [19].

Group 1: Military Developments - The air combat victory in May 2025 significantly boosted Pakistan's military confidence, showcasing its capability to respond to modern warfare and defend territorial sovereignty [2] - Following the conflict, public support for the military and government surged, with 92% of citizens expressing improved views of the military [2] - Pakistan's military industry has gained international attention, securing a $4 billion arms deal with Libya, marking the largest military export order in its history [2] Group 2: International Relations - Pakistan's international reputation improved significantly post-air combat, becoming a sought-after partner for military cooperation among various countries [3] - Strategic defense agreements were signed with Saudi Arabia, and support from Turkey and Azerbaijan strengthened Pakistan's military diplomacy [3] - Relations with the United States improved, with renewed cooperation in energy, minerals, finance, and security following the air combat [4] Group 3: Economic Recovery - Pakistan's economy showed signs of stabilization in 2025, with inflation rates dropping from a peak of 38% to 4.5%, and foreign exchange reserves increasing to $14.5 billion from under $3 billion in 2023 [6] - The country achieved rare surpluses in both current and fiscal accounts, supported by loans from the IMF and World Bank [6] - The World Bank projected a GDP growth of 3% for the fiscal year 2026, potentially rising to 3.7% in 2027 [6] Group 4: Domestic Stability - Political unity increased in Pakistan, with various political factions reaching consensus on national interests and development, leading to successful reforms [5] - The government effectively curtailed violent political movements, enhancing governance and stability [5] - Security operations against terrorist organizations yielded significant successes, reducing the frequency and intensity of attacks [6] Group 5: Ongoing Challenges - Military pressure from India remains a primary threat to Pakistan's national security, with ongoing tensions and potential for renewed conflict [7] - Economic dependency on foreign aid persists, necessitating reforms to stimulate domestic economic growth [7] - Despite setbacks against terrorism, the underlying organizational structures of extremist groups remain, requiring vigilance from the government and military [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent training activities of the Chinese Navy's Liaoning aircraft carrier group in the Miyako Strait, emphasizing that Japan's Self-Defense Forces interfered with these exercises, posing a threat to flight safety [1] - The Chinese Navy's spokesperson, Wang Xuemeng, stated that the training area was publicly announced in advance, and Japan's actions were characterized as unfounded and harmful to China's normal training operations [1] - The article mentions that the Chinese Navy will take necessary measures to safeguard its security and legal rights in response to Japan's provocations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector has emerged as a leading performer, with significant capital inflow and stock price increases, driven by geopolitical factors and increased defense spending [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The defense and military sector saw a net inflow of over 13.3 billion yuan, the highest across all industries [1]. - The defense military ETF (512810) experienced a daily increase of 3.78%, marking the largest single-day gain since July, with trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan [2]. - Key stocks such as China Shipbuilding Defense, China Aerospace Development, and Great Wall Military Technology hit the daily limit, with notable price increases of 13.13% and 11.6% for Tianhai Defense and Guoke Military Technology, respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are seen as a catalyst for the defense and military sector's performance, with expectations of increased defense spending in response to external threats [4]. - Analysts suggest that the importance of national defense is rising amid global conflicts, which may support the valuation of the defense and military industry [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The defense and military industry is anticipated to undergo a critical transformation in 2026, coinciding with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary of the military, leading to increased demand and structural upgrades [4]. - Analysts recommend heightened attention to the defense and military sector, indicating a robust outlook for high-quality development [4]. Group 4: Investment Tools - The defense military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool, covering various themes such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI [5].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry is experiencing a significant adjustment, with the defense military ETF (512810) hitting a three-month low, indicating potential buying opportunities despite recent declines [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 21, the market underwent a deep adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points, impacting the technology growth style and the defense military sector [1]. - The defense military ETF (512810) opened lower and fell over 2%, reaching a new three-month low during the trading session [1]. - Despite the downturn, there was a notable inflow of over 113 million yuan into the sector over the past ten days, suggesting strong buying interest [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The defense and military sector has an optimistic medium to long-term outlook, with a reported revenue of 600.375 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.99% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 29.822 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.01%, indicating a recovery in performance [2]. - The sector's core companies are expected to continue their recovery, with both revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year improvements [2]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines a high-quality advancement for China's defense and military modernization, accelerating the upgrade of advanced weaponry and equipment [4]. - China's global competitiveness in shipbuilding, aerospace, and satellite navigation has been steadily improving, positioning the defense military industry as a key area for breakthrough development [4]. - The importance of national defense security is increasing amid global conflicts and geopolitical tensions, which may support industry valuations [4]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The defense military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient tool for investing in core defense military assets, covering various themes such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI [4]. - Recent analysis suggests that the defense military sector may be entering a configuration cycle, making it a potentially attractive investment opportunity [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board indices have experienced declines, with the Sci-Tech Growth Index down by 1%, the Sci-Tech 50 Index down by 1.1%, and both the Sci-Tech 100 Index and the Sci-Tech Composite Index down by 1.2% as of midday [1] - Wind data shows that the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588080) has seen a net inflow of 250 million yuan over the last three trading days, suggesting investor interest despite the overall index decline [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the priority of building a modern industrial system, with a focus on technological innovation and new productivity, which may catalyze a shift from market fluctuations to an upward trend in indices [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Composite Index ETF tracks the comprehensive index of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, covering all market securities and focusing on core industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The Sci-Tech Growth 50 ETF tracks the growth index of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, consisting of 50 stocks with high growth rates in operating income and net profit, highlighting a strong growth style [6]

Group 1 - The technology sector showed mixed performance this week, with CPO, PCB, and memory chips experiencing a pullback, while batteries and software sectors performed strongly [1] - The STAR 100 Index increased by 0.7%, while the STAR Growth Index and STAR Composite Index both decreased by 0.7%, and the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.2% [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strengthening original innovation and tackling key core technologies, aiming for decisive breakthroughs in critical areas such as integrated circuits, high-end equipment, and advanced materials [1] Group 2 - According to Cinda Securities, the policy content of the "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the priority of building a modern industrial system, with a focus on technological innovation and new productivity as key development directions [1] - The expectations for domestic substitution, expanding domestic demand, and national defense security are likely to increase, potentially catalyzing the end of market fluctuations and leading to an upward trend in indices [1]