大家好，今天我们来讨论一下2026年1月，商务部宣布对日本实施禁止所有两用物项出口的措施，特别是对军事用户和军事用途的限制。日本因为公开发表 错误的涉台言论，同时也因为过度依赖中国出口的钨资源而受到了严格管制。那么，中方手中的钨资源，能否成为一种新的底气呢？ 钨被誉为工业牙齿，这一称号可不是随便起的。钨在所有战略金属中占有特殊的地位，它的独特物理性质让它无可替代。根据数据显示，钨的熔点高达 3422°C，其硬度几乎接近钻石。正是因为它具有耐高温和抗磨损的特性，使得钨成为高端制造中不可或缺的关键材料，全球范围内没有任何金属能够完全 替代它。 与白银不同，白银依赖进口才能维持产业地位，而钨则是中国的核心储备资源。中国不仅在钨储量和产量上遥遥领先，还在钨的回收技术上具有显著优势， 已经建立起了从开采-加工-回收的完整产业链体系，能够自主掌控上下游资源。 无论是日常工业生产还是前沿科技，钨的身影都无处不在。比如，钻探用的超硬钻头，如果没有钨，就无法顺利钻透岩层；喷气发动机的涡轮叶片，必须依 赖钨来承受极端高温。 就连马斯克引以为豪的商业航天技术，火箭回收的核心部件也离不开钨的支撑。这也使得钨的战略价值越发重要。 与稀 ...

转自：光明日报 （来源：光明日报） 回望2025年，巴基斯坦在复杂环境中把握战略主动，在军事建设、外交拓展、经济复苏与社会凝聚 等方面都发生了积极变化，在世界变局中的可见度明显提升。展望2026年，巴基斯坦有着良好的发展态 势，也仍面临地缘政治不确定性、经济基础薄弱等不容忽视的挑战。 空战胜利重塑军事自信 2025年4月底，印度指控巴基斯坦为印控克什米尔地区一起恐袭事件的幕后黑手，并拒绝巴方对事 件启动第三方调查的倡议。印度对巴发动多项制裁，暂停执行《印度河河水条约》，使巴80%的农业用 水、60%的饮用水安全受到直接威胁。在经历多轮制裁与反制后，双方矛盾迅速升级为热战。 印度5月7日起对巴首都及多个大型城市发动空袭，巴方随即发动反击，击落印军包括"阵风"战机在 内的多架军机。5月10日，在巴军对印度境内发动一轮打击行动后，双方签订停火协议。在这场高烈度 冲突中，巴基斯坦不仅捍卫了领土主权，更彰显了其应对现代化战争的军事素养。 胜利给巴基斯坦社会积蓄了力量。巴民众对军方和政府的支持度大幅上升，民族自豪感与国家认同 感空前高涨。民调显示，92%的民众在印巴空战后改善了对军方的看法。巴海外侨汇也有大幅增长，成 为 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector has emerged as a leading performer, with significant capital inflow and stock price increases, driven by geopolitical factors and increased defense spending [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The defense and military sector saw a net inflow of over 13.3 billion yuan, the highest across all industries [1]. - The defense military ETF (512810) experienced a daily increase of 3.78%, marking the largest single-day gain since July, with trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan [2]. - Key stocks such as China Shipbuilding Defense, China Aerospace Development, and Great Wall Military Technology hit the daily limit, with notable price increases of 13.13% and 11.6% for Tianhai Defense and Guoke Military Technology, respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are seen as a catalyst for the defense and military sector's performance, with expectations of increased defense spending in response to external threats [4]. - Analysts suggest that the importance of national defense is rising amid global conflicts, which may support the valuation of the defense and military industry [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The defense and military industry is anticipated to undergo a critical transformation in 2026, coinciding with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary of the military, leading to increased demand and structural upgrades [4]. - Analysts recommend heightened attention to the defense and military sector, indicating a robust outlook for high-quality development [4]. Group 4: Investment Tools - The defense military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool, covering various themes such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI [5].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry is experiencing a significant adjustment, with the defense military ETF (512810) hitting a three-month low, indicating potential buying opportunities despite recent declines [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 21, the market underwent a deep adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points, impacting the technology growth style and the defense military sector [1]. - The defense military ETF (512810) opened lower and fell over 2%, reaching a new three-month low during the trading session [1]. - Despite the downturn, there was a notable inflow of over 113 million yuan into the sector over the past ten days, suggesting strong buying interest [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The defense and military sector has an optimistic medium to long-term outlook, with a reported revenue of 600.375 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.99% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 29.822 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.01%, indicating a recovery in performance [2]. - The sector's core companies are expected to continue their recovery, with both revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year improvements [2]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines a high-quality advancement for China's defense and military modernization, accelerating the upgrade of advanced weaponry and equipment [4]. - China's global competitiveness in shipbuilding, aerospace, and satellite navigation has been steadily improving, positioning the defense military industry as a key area for breakthrough development [4]. - The importance of national defense security is increasing amid global conflicts and geopolitical tensions, which may support industry valuations [4]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The defense military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient tool for investing in core defense military assets, covering various themes such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI [4]. - Recent analysis suggests that the defense military sector may be entering a configuration cycle, making it a potentially attractive investment opportunity [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board indices have experienced declines, with the Sci-Tech Growth Index down by 1%, the Sci-Tech 50 Index down by 1.1%, and both the Sci-Tech 100 Index and the Sci-Tech Composite Index down by 1.2% as of midday [1] - Wind data shows that the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588080) has seen a net inflow of 250 million yuan over the last three trading days, suggesting investor interest despite the overall index decline [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the priority of building a modern industrial system, with a focus on technological innovation and new productivity, which may catalyze a shift from market fluctuations to an upward trend in indices [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Composite Index ETF tracks the comprehensive index of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, covering all market securities and focusing on core industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The Sci-Tech Growth 50 ETF tracks the growth index of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, consisting of 50 stocks with high growth rates in operating income and net profit, highlighting a strong growth style [6]

Group 1 - The technology sector showed mixed performance this week, with CPO, PCB, and memory chips experiencing a pullback, while batteries and software sectors performed strongly [1] - The STAR 100 Index increased by 0.7%, while the STAR Growth Index and STAR Composite Index both decreased by 0.7%, and the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.2% [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes strengthening original innovation and tackling key core technologies, aiming for decisive breakthroughs in critical areas such as integrated circuits, high-end equipment, and advanced materials [1] Group 2 - According to Cinda Securities, the policy content of the "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the priority of building a modern industrial system, with a focus on technological innovation and new productivity as key development directions [1] - The expectations for domestic substitution, expanding domestic demand, and national defense security are likely to increase, potentially catalyzing the end of market fluctuations and leading to an upward trend in indices [1]

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Rare Earth ETF" and "Rare Metal ETF" by Jiashi Fund has transformed the value logic of scarce resources into tradable products, allowing ordinary investors to access investment opportunities in the global industrial chain restructuring [1][3] - As of October 2025, the Rare Earth ETF and Rare Metal ETF have seen significant price increases of 81% and 76% respectively, outperforming many other ETFs in the market [1] - The third-quarter profits for the Rare Earth ETF and Rare Metal ETF were reported at 1.634 billion and 542 million respectively [1] Group 1: Scarcity and Strategic Importance - Rare resources are gaining attention due to their dual labels of "scarcity" and "strategic importance," serving as the "blood" of the new energy industry and the "core" of high-end manufacturing [3] - The demand for rare metals is driven by emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and aerospace, which are experiencing high growth [5][8] Group 2: ETF Composition and Investment Focus - The Rare Earth ETF focuses on rare earth elements, while the Rare Metal ETF encompasses a broader category of metals, including lithium, titanium, and tungsten [4][6] - The investment focus of the Rare Metal ETF is on emerging industries, while the Rare Earth ETF emphasizes the irreplaceability of rare earth elements in high-tech industries [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The prices of key rare earth products have been rising significantly, with some experiencing price increases of 60%-90% this year, indicating a "golden era" for the rare earth sector [7] - China's export controls on rare earth technologies are tightening, further emphasizing the strategic importance of these resources in national security [7][8] - The demand for high-performance rare metal materials is expected to continue rising, particularly in sectors like satellite manufacturing and deep-sea exploration [8]

Core Points - Denmark's government announced a procurement plan for medium-range ground-based air defense systems from multiple European manufacturers, totaling approximately 58 billion Danish Kroner (about 9.12 billion USD) [1] - This procurement represents Denmark's largest single military purchase in history [1] - The Danish Defense Minister stated that the new systems are necessary to enhance Denmark's combat capabilities in response to current security challenges in Denmark and Europe [1] Summary by Category Procurement Details - Denmark will acquire 8 sets of medium-range ground-based air defense systems from manufacturers in France, Italy, Germany, and Norway [1] - The first batch of these systems is expected to be operational by 2025 [1] Historical Context - In June of this year, Denmark announced a procurement of short-range air defense systems from Germany, France, and Norway, totaling over 6 billion Danish Kroner (approximately 940 million USD) [1] Strategic Implications - The procurement is aimed at significantly enhancing Denmark's defense capabilities, marking a "leap" in its military readiness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights deep-sea technology as a new national strategic industry, emphasizing its importance for resource and national defense security, and its potential to explore the "blue" economy [1][2]. Resource Security - The urgency for China to secure deep-sea resources is underscored, as the U.S. and Japan are accelerating their deep-sea mining efforts. The U.S. has initiated policies to expedite mineral resource development in international seabed areas, while Japan plans to drill for rare earths at a depth of 5,500 meters by 2026 to reduce reliance on China. China's dependency on foreign resources is significant, with over 70% for oil and natural gas, and 78%-95% for strategic minerals like copper, cobalt, and nickel, making deep-sea resources crucial for national security [2]. National Defense Security - The report discusses the need for China to address its "open underwater national gate" security dilemma. The deep sea offers significant advantages for military operations, and establishing a robust deep-sea combat system is essential for implementing a "deep denial" strategy. The U.S. and Japan are actively developing their deep-sea military strategies, while China must enhance its underwater defense capabilities to secure its maritime interests [3]. Blue Economy - The marine economy in China reached a production value of 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating a substantial market potential. Future growth in the marine economy is expected to be driven by emerging sectors such as offshore fishing, offshore wind power, port shipping, and seawater desalination, alongside improvements in deep-sea technology productivity driven by security needs [3][4]. Deep-Sea Technology Industry Chain - The deep-sea technology industry chain encompasses basic materials to high-end equipment manufacturing, focusing on three core areas: deep diving, deep drilling, and deep networking. Key materials include titanium alloys for deep-sea pressure structures, sonar systems for underwater detection and navigation, and underwater robots for exploration and resource development [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "situation awareness" capabilities as a foundational aspect of deep-sea development. Companies such as China Marine Defense, Jizhi Co., and Zhongke Haixun are recommended for investment in the initial phase, as they are pivotal in enhancing situational awareness in deep-sea technology [5].