行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 9 股票研究 / [Table_Date] 2025.11.24 2025-11-24 即时零售亮眼，电商品类表现分化 [Table_Industry] 批发零售业 "双十一"电商数据总结 本报告导读： "双十一"电商销售平稳增长，渠道侧即时零售高增，品类方面服装鞋帽、化妆品、金 银珠宝等表现较好。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资观点：①金价坚挺，珠宝龙头公司陆续完成提价，重点关注标 的：老铺黄金、菜百股份、潮宏基、周大福、六福集团；②市场风 格变化，新消费估值低、景气度高，值得关注；重点关注标的：古 茗；受益标的：蜜雪冰城。③关注超市调改，重点关注标的：步步 高、汇嘉时代、重庆百货、永辉超市、家家悦；④ 消费+科技仍是 重要产业趋势，重点关注标的：小商品城、康耐特光学、天立国际 控股；受益标的：凯文教育。 "双十一"总体表现：根据国家统计局，10 月实物商品网上零售额同 比+4.9%，较 9 月增速放缓 2.4pct。根据星图数据，2025 年"双十一" 大促全期全网电商销售总额 16950 亿元，同增 14.2%（2025 年 10 月 7 ...

投资者关系活动记录表 投资者关系活动类别 ☑ 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他(电话会议) 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 共计 5 位投资者（排名不分先后）： 华西证券：王璐 深圳国源信达：周安方 东吴证券：郗越 中银香港资管：陶青 大家资管：金可欣 时 间 2025 年 11 月 20 日 地 点 总部会议室 上市公司接待人员 姓名 证券事务代表：荣欢 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 一、 问答环节： 投资者主要就行业情况、品牌矩阵、自营店规划、产品结构、产品 毛利率情况、终端销售情况等进行了交流，并参观了公司展厅，可参阅 前次活动记录表之问答和已披露公告。 接待过程中，公司严格按照《信息披露管理制度》等规定，保证信 息披露的真实、准确、完整、及时、公平，没有出现未公开重大信息泄 露等情况。同时，现场调研的投资者已按深交所要求签署承诺函。 附件清单（如有） 无 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 周大生珠宝股份有限公司 代码：002867 证券简称：周大生 编号：2025-041 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's main business growth exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 49.52% year-on-year in Q3. After excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 81.54% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company has accelerated its channel expansion, with a total of 1,599 jewelry stores by the end of September 2025, including 1,412 franchise stores and 187 self-operated stores [7]. - Although the gross margin slightly declined due to changes in channel structure, the overall profitability improved significantly due to a notable reduction in expense ratios [7]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 425 million, 670 million, and 802 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 28.3x for 2025 [1][3]. - Revenue projections for the years 2025 to 2027 are 8,464 million, 10,271 million, and 11,902 million, reflecting growth rates of 30%, 21%, and 16% respectively [3][9]. - The operating profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 544 million, with a significant increase of 131% year-on-year [3][9]. Operational Efficiency - The company reported a healthy operating cash flow of 602 million in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.30% [7]. - Inventory turnover days decreased by 31 days to 174 days, indicating improved operational efficiency [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a trendy brand catering to young consumers, with a strong focus on differentiated products and brand positioning [7]. - The expansion of franchise channels is expected to accelerate, providing ample room for growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - Laopu Gold has announced a price increase effective October 26, marking the third price adjustment in 2023, following increases in February and August, indicating a significant rise in adjustment frequency compared to previous years [2][8]. Price Increase Announcement - Laopu Gold's price adjustment is attributed to the rising international gold prices, with specific details on the adjustment yet to be disclosed [2][9]. - The announcement has led to a surge in consumer demand, with reports of long queues at physical stores and significant purchases, including transactions exceeding 6 million yuan in a single day [3][5]. Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The physical stores of Laopu Gold have experienced a "buying frenzy," with many popular items sold out and limited stock available [5][6]. - Consumers are drawn to physical stores due to a wider selection compared to online platforms, although the availability of desired items remains uncertain [5][6]. Second-Hand Market Performance - Despite strong sales in the retail market, Laopu Gold's brand does not command a premium in the second-hand market, where products are valued based on weight and current gold prices rather than brand reputation [6][7]. - Some specialized second-hand dealers offer higher buyback prices for popular items, but overall, the brand's second-hand market performance is not significantly better than other gold brands [7][9]. Reasons for Frequent Price Adjustments - The frequency of price increases is driven by two main factors: rising raw material costs, with gold prices increasing over 50% this year, and the brand's positioning as a luxury item, which encourages a "buy high" consumer mentality [9][10]. - Laopu Gold's strategy reflects an attempt to align with luxury brand pricing tactics, although it lacks a strong brand identity and competitive edge compared to established luxury brands [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Huanghe Xuanfeng reached the daily limit increase, while companies such as Sifangda, Huifeng Diamond, and Liliang Diamond saw increases of over 10% [1] Company Performance - Huanghe Xuanfeng experienced a significant rise, hitting the daily limit [1] - Sifangda, Huifeng Diamond, and Liliang Diamond all recorded gains exceeding 10% [1] - Other companies like Mankalon, Chaohongji, and Yuyuan Shares also followed with increases [1]

Core Insights - Global gold production is projected to reach 3,661 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - Uzbekistan's gold output is estimated at 129 tons, accounting for 3.5% of global production, ranking it as the tenth largest gold producer [1] - The leading gold producers include China (380 tons), Russia (330 tons), Australia (284 tons), Canada (202 tons), and the United States (158 tons) [1] Jewelry Industry Insights - The jewelry sector remains the primary consumer of gold, with expected gold consumption of 2,003.5 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 9% [1] - Despite the decrease in volume, the jewelry industry's gold expenditure is projected to rise by 9% year-on-year, reaching $144 billion due to increasing global gold prices [1]

Core Insights - A significant incident occurred in the Shenzhen Shuibei jewelry market involving a gold raw material supplier who allegedly absconded, resulting in substantial losses for multiple downstream businesses, with the highest single loss reported at 4 million yuan [2] - The supplier had been operating in the Shuibei market for a long time, engaging in wholesale transactions, but suddenly became unreachable after collecting large payments from several merchants, highlighting the financial risks associated with bulk transactions in the jewelry industry [2] - The Shuibei market, recognized as the largest gold and jewelry distribution center in China, has an annual transaction volume exceeding 100 billion yuan, prompting increased scrutiny on transaction regulations within the industry [2] Industry Response - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Industry Association has issued a risk alert, advising merchants to enhance credit investigations of trading partners and advocating for the establishment of an industry blacklist system [3] - This incident underscores the urgent need for the traditional jewelry industry to improve its modern transaction risk control systems as it undergoes transformation and upgrading [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Jin Yi Culture has faced legal challenges due to past information disclosure violations, resulting in a favorable ruling for some investors seeking compensation [1][2] - The Beijing High People's Court ruled in June 2025 that certain investors won their case against Jin Yi Culture for securities fraud, highlighting the company's significant information disclosure issues [2] - Jin Yi Culture reported a revenue of 412 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 117.11%, primarily due to the consolidation of a new subsidiary [1][2] Group 2 - The company was found to have inflated inventory and profits in its 2020 and 2021 financial reports, with 6.10 billion yuan and 6.37 billion yuan of inflated inventory respectively, leading to significant misstatements in its annual reports [2] - The statute of limitations for claims related to the case is approximately seven months, allowing eligible investors who bought shares between April 30, 2021, and April 30, 2023, to seek compensation for their losses [3] - Given the recent favorable ruling, the likelihood of success for similar cases is considered high, encouraging affected investors to act quickly [3]

Core Insights - The rise of "pain gold," a combination of anime, gaming IPs, and gold jewelry, is becoming popular among young consumers, viewed as a more valuable alternative to traditional merchandise [1][2][3] - The trend reflects a shift in consumer attitudes, with younger generations prioritizing personal enjoyment and emotional value in their purchases [4][5] - The premium pricing of "pain gold" products is significantly higher than standard gold jewelry, raising concerns about their investment viability [6][7] Group 1: Market Trends - "Pain gold" has gained traction on social media, with over 20,000 discussions and nearly 3 million views, primarily among consumers born in the 1990s and 2000s [3][4] - The average price of "pain gold" ranges from 1,800 to 2,000 yuan per gram, which is substantially higher than the typical gold jewelry price of around 1,000 yuan per gram [6][7] - The demand for gold jewelry in China is evolving, with a projected consumer spending of 84 billion yuan by Q1 2025, reflecting a 29% quarter-on-quarter increase [7][10] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Younger consumers are increasingly willing to pay for products that carry emotional significance, leading to a rise in the "二次元经济" (two-dimensional economy) and other high-value consumer categories [5][6] - The emotional value associated with gold jewelry is becoming more important than traditional reasons for purchasing, such as marriage or investment [4][5] - The shift in consumer focus from family-oriented spending to personal enjoyment is evident across different generations, with younger consumers driving the demand for innovative and emotionally resonant products [5][6] Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Industry experts express mixed views on the sustainability of the "pain gold" market, with some believing it represents a new direction for traditional jewelry, while others caution about the potential for a bubble due to the fluctuating popularity of IPs [7][8] - The integration of IPs with gold jewelry is seen as a way to enhance perceived value, but concerns remain about the long-term viability of such products as investments [6][7] - The gold jewelry market is expected to continue evolving, with a "pyramid" structure emerging where different segments cater to varying consumer needs, from cost-effective options to high-end luxury items [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][17]. Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance in H1 2025, with a revenue growth of nearly 20% and a significant net profit increase of 44% [1]. - The jewelry segment accounted for 96.87% of total revenue, achieving a 21.22% year-on-year growth, while the leather goods segment saw a decline of 17.77% [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand management and product design in the mid-to-high-end fashion consumer goods sector, particularly in jewelry and fashion handbags [4][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from 5,900 million CNY in 2023 to 10,493 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.8% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is forecasted to increase from 333 million CNY in 2023 to 784 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 67.4% in 2023 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from 0.38 CNY in 2023 to 0.88 CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][9]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was reported at 23.81%, a slight decrease of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 8.11%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points [2]. - The company successfully reduced its expense ratio, with a significant drop in the period expense ratio to 12.32%, down by 2.32 percentage points [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its franchise channel and enhancing its omnichannel marketing strategy, with a total of 1,540 stores by mid-2025, including 1,340 franchise stores [3]. - The online sales subsidiary reported a net profit increase of 70.64% during the reporting period, showcasing the effectiveness of its digital marketing strategies [3]. - The company is leveraging innovative e-commerce models, including live streaming and KOL marketing, to enhance brand visibility and sales conversion [3].