Core Insights - The production of green methanol can be categorized based on the source of raw materials and the process used to synthesize syngas, including carbon capture coupled with green hydrogen, biomass gasification, biomass coupled with green hydrogen, and biomass reforming [1][5]. Group 1: Carbon Capture Coupled with Green Hydrogen - The expected cost of green methanol production using this method is approximately 4251 RMB/ton, with major costs coming from hydrogen (74.0%) and CO2 (12.9%) [1]. - The investment payback period is estimated at 10.2 years, which can be reduced to 7.7 years if the green electricity price drops to 0.15 RMB/kWh [2]. Group 2: Biomass Gasification - The production cost for methanol via biomass gasification is around 2669 RMB/ton, primarily driven by biomass raw material costs (47.0%) and depreciation (20.1%) [2]. - The investment payback period is estimated at 3.4 years, which could extend to 5.5 years if biomass prices rise to 1200 RMB/ton [2]. Group 3: Biomass Coupled with Green Hydrogen - Two scenarios are analyzed: - Scenario 1 (CO2 direct emission) has a cost of approximately 2920 RMB/ton, with major costs from green hydrogen (34.9%) and biomass (29.3%) [3]. - Scenario 2 (CO2 utilization) has a cost of about 3176 RMB/ton, with green hydrogen costs at 55.4% [3]. - The investment payback period for Scenario 1 is 3.9 years, potentially reducing to 3.4 years with a green electricity price of 0.10 RMB/kWh [3]. Group 4: Biogas Reforming - The estimated cost for methanol production through biogas reforming is around 3488 RMB/ton, with significant costs from biogas (44.7%) and hydrogen (19.7%) [4]. - The investment payback period is projected at 6.2 years, which could increase to 9.0 years if biogas prices rise to 3.0 RMB/m³ [4]. Group 5: Summary of Economic Viability - The biomass gasification route is currently the most economical, with advantages in production cost and payback period compared to other methods [5]. - The economic viability of biomass gasification and biogas reforming is sensitive to biomass prices, while carbon capture coupled with green hydrogen and biomass coupled with green hydrogen are sensitive to green electricity prices [5]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The green hydrogen and methanol industry chain is viewed positively for investment, with a focus on the sustainability of resource endowments and cost reduction [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current inventory pressure at ports remains high, and it is necessary to wait for a further decline in Iranian shipments. The impact of plant maintenance on actual shipment volume decline needs further confirmation. The port inventory increased rapidly in late December and returned to a historical high. - The supply pressure of coal - based methanol inland is still significant, while the southwest gas - based methanol is in winter maintenance. The traditional downstream demand is in the off - season, and the factory inventory is in the rebuilding cycle. - Suggested strategies include cautiously going long on a single - side basis for hedging, widening the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low, and narrowing the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [1][3][7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Basis Strategy - **Basis Status**: The basis of Taicang against the MA2605 contract is still weak, oscillating between - 40 and - 15 yuan/ton. The basis of Inner Mongolia's northern line against MA2605 has dropped from + 500 yuan/ton to below + 200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis Analysis and Forecast**: Due to large port inventory and waiting for a decline in January shipments, the port basis is expected to oscillate between - 30 and 0 yuan/ton. Inland, due to high coal - based methanol production and the off - season of traditional downstream industries, the factory inventory is rebuilding, and the inland basis is expected to further weaken to the range of + 100 to + 200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait for a further decline in Iranian shipments and a drop in Chinese arrivals. For the spread, go long on MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low. Pay attention to the decline in the off - season of traditional downstream industries for Inner Mongolia's basis [11]. II. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - Period Spreads No specific new content other than basis analysis is provided in the given text. III. Methanol Overseas and Inland Supply - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas methanol monthly output is 4,001,517 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.96% (unchanged). China's monthly methanol import volume is 1,417,590 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.64%. Iranian winter maintenance has started, but the decline rate of actual shipments is slow [1]. - **Inland Supply**: China's monthly methanol output is 9,071,285 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.88%. The operating rate is 90.97% (+ 0.45%). Coal - based methanol production in December further increased, and the southwest gas - based methanol is in winter maintenance, initially planned until mid - to late January [1]. - **Production Plan**: There are multiple methanol production projects in China with different production times, matching downstream facilities, and production capacities [27]. IV. Methanol Downstream Demand - **Port MTO Demand**: The operating rate of external methanol - purchasing MTO enterprises is 85.66% (- 0.34%). Methanol - to - olefin production is 1,711,511 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. Ningbo Fude's MTO unit started maintenance on December 8 for 45 days. Pay attention to the possibility of Xingxing MTO maintenance in January and the commissioning progress of Guangxi Huayi MTO in the second quarter of 2026 [2]. - **Inland Traditional Downstream Demand**: Formaldehyde production is 1455000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%; glacial acetic acid production is 1,095,550 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.47%; MTBE production is 1,804,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.56%; dimethyl ether production is 42,030 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.26%. The operating rates of different products vary, with formaldehyde in the off - season and acetic acid's operating rate rising from the bottom [2]. - **Inland MTO Demand**: The weekly procurement volume of northwest MTO enterprises is 56,500 tons (+ 10,500). Luxi MTO maintains a low - load operation, while the new Lunan Lianhong Phase II MTO unit was put into operation on December 10, driving new inland MTO demand [3]. V. Methanol Port Inventory and Inland Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Methanol port inventory is 1,477,408 tons (+ 64,899), including 843,845 tons in Jiangsu (+ 28,554), 203,300 tons in Zhejiang (+ 11,300), 214,000 tons in Guangdong (- 19,000), and 216,263 tons in Fujian (+ 44,045). The inventory of MTO sample enterprises is 760,000 tons (+ 70,000). The port inventory pressure is still large due to the delayed unloading and reduced demand for port - to - inland shipments [3]. - **Inland Inventory**: China's inland methanol factory inventory is 422,590 tons (+ 18,620), with 253,500 tons in the northwest factory warehouse (+ 22,000). The factory inventory is in the rebuilding cycle due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries and high coal - based supply pressure [3].

Group 1 - The core factor behind the recent decline in methanol prices is the deepening structural oversupply, marking a shift from traditional demand-driven growth to a new market logic dominated by resource competition and inventory dynamics [2][4] - The global methanol supply landscape has transformed into a "tripod" structure, with China, the Middle East (led by Iran), and the United States as the three main players, each influencing trade flows and pricing benchmarks [3][4] - China's domestic market is characterized by rising supply driven by high operational rates of coal-based methanol production, supported by low coal prices, which has led to a historical high in production rates and consequently suppressed prices [5][8] Group 2 - By 2026, the domestic methanol supply structure will exhibit significant differentiation, with new capacity primarily coming from green methanol and traditional production, but actual market impact may be limited due to integration with downstream facilities [8][9] - The overseas methanol market is shifting towards a phase dominated by inventory dynamics and geopolitical risks, with a notable slowdown in supply growth and a focus on the operational efficiency of existing facilities [11][13] - The global methanol market is characterized by a "dual structure," where production in overseas markets relies heavily on natural gas, while China's coal-based production creates a unique cost structure, making China's supply elasticity and cost logic largely independent of international markets [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, on the supply side, with the peak - winter coal - using season approaching, coal prices are expected to remain firm. Northwest CTO continues external procurement, methanol auction prices are strong, coal - to - methanol profits will be maintained, and domestic methanol operating rates will reach new highs. In terms of imports, Iranian plants are stable, and the import volume in December is expected to increase to 1.6 million tons, with slow destocking of port inventories. On the demand side, there is no incremental demand in December. New MTO plants are to be put into operation at the end of the year, but limited by compressed profits, some port MTO plants will resume. Traditional demand capacity continues to expand, but there are few bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [4][96]. - High inventory pressure persists, but as Iran starts gas rationing and some plants shut down, methanol is oscillating to build a bottom [5][96]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In December, the supply is relatively abundant with high domestic operating rates and expected import increase. Demand has no significant growth [4][96]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading should focus on oscillating to build a bottom. For arbitrage, long - term attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - period arbitrage and the repair opportunity of PP - 3MA in cross - variety arbitrage. The lower limit is 2050 yuan/ton [5][9][96]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In November 2025, domestic mainstream methanol spot prices declined. Macroeconomic factors such as US economic data, tariff contradictions, and domestic policies affected the market. With the return to fundamentals and high port inventories, methanol futures declined more [10][11]. - On the supply side, domestic coal demand decreased in November, but inland methanol prices were firm. Coal - to - methanol profits shrank slightly but remained high. Domestic supply was loose, especially in the northwest. In the port area, MTO plant operating rates were stable. International plant operating rates were high and stable, and Iranian shipping speed increased in November, with an expected import volume of 1.65 million tons in December [14][19][21]. - The average prices in different regions declined month - on - month. International methanol operating rates were stable in November, with some plant changes. US supply was high, and overall demand was weak, leading to a weak methanol price [23][25][27]. 3.2.2 Supply Analysis - From 2024 to 2027, the new methanol plant commissioning enters a contraction cycle. In 2024, China's methanol capacity increased by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output of 75 million tons. The actual new capacity in 2024 was 3 million tons. In 2025, the capacity is expected to increase by about 3% year - on - year, with a total output of 85 million tons, and the actual new capacity (for sale) is 1.9 million tons [30][38]. - In November 2024, new domestic methanol plant commissioning was limited, with various production processes involved. In December 2025, the new commissioning pressure remains small [33][38]. - In November, coal prices fluctuated slightly, methanol prices declined, and coal - to - methanol profits narrowed but remained high. It is expected to remain high in December [40]. - Coal - to - methanol profits are high, and the operating rates are at a high level. As of the end of November, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 76.25%, and the northwest operating load was 85.76%. The coal - single - methanol operating rate was 97.15%. From January to October 2025, domestic methanol production increased significantly [43][47]. - In December, coal prices are expected to be stable and firm. With the return of overhauled plants, the overall operating rate will increase slightly, and enterprise inventories are expected to be stable [49][52]. 3.2.3 December Import Forecast - From January to November 2025, China is expected to import about 12.83 million tons of methanol. As of November, Iranian shipping exceeded 1.16 million tons, and non - Iranian transshipment exceeded 600,000 tons. The import volume in December is expected to exceed 1.6 million tons [56][58]. - In 2024, international new capacity slowed down, with new projects mainly in the US and Malaysia. In 2025, international new capacity is still large, especially in Iran, where 4.95 million tons of new capacity are planned [62][64]. - Currently, some Iranian plants are shut down, and the daily output has decreased. The import volume in December is expected to be 1.6 million tons. High - level imports and stable MTO demand lead to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. As of the end of November, the total port inventory was 1.47 million tons [67][69][72]. 3.2.4 Limited Demand Increment in December and Little Macro - level Change - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In November, trade and geopolitical conflicts affected the domestic macro - environment, and the Fed's interest - rate cut timing is worthy of attention. In October, China's economic output remained stable, but the manufacturing PMI declined [76][77]. - In November, there was no new MTO plant commissioning. In the second half of 2025, 1.45 million tons of new MTO plants are expected to be commissioned, but some are postponed. Some MTO plants face elimination pressure due to profit and industrial - structure issues [83][87]. - In December, traditional downstream demand is unlikely to increase. The fundamentals of traditional downstream sectors are differentiated, with formaldehyde, MTBE, and DMF having stable increments, and acetic acid, BDO, and DMC having more new increments. Some industries' operating rates are affected by weak demand [93]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Similar to the preface, in December, supply is abundant, and demand has no significant growth [96]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading should focus on oscillating to build a bottom. For arbitrage, long - term attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 positive spread in inter - period arbitrage and the repair opportunity of PP - 3MA in cross - variety arbitrage. The lower limit is 2050 yuan/ton [96].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that domestic green methanol production capacity is characterized by "small-scale validation, accelerated implementation, and ample reserves" with 190,000 tons/year already in production and 3.11 million tons/year under construction as of September 2025, and a long-term planned capacity expected to reach 18.23 million tons/year [1] Group 1: Production Capacity - As of September 2025, 190,000 tons/year of green methanol production capacity has been put into operation [1] - There are currently 3.11 million tons/year of green methanol production capacity under construction [1] - Long-term planned capacity for green methanol production is projected to reach 18.23 million tons/year [1] Group 2: Technological Development - Two main technological routes for green methanol production are being pursued simultaneously, with green electricity-based methanol production expected to maintain a dominant position due to its cost reduction potential [1] Group 3: Market Demand and Policy Support - Although the voting on the IMO net-zero framework has been postponed, the decarbonization goals for the shipping industry remain unchanged, leading to a gradual formation of downstream demand [1] - Short-term catalysts include the implementation of ongoing projects and policy support, while long-term growth opportunities are driven by technological cost reduction and supply-demand coordination [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities span across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, focusing on leading companies in each segment [1] - The strategy involves capturing short-term benefits from "capacity implementation + policy dividends" and long-term positioning for "technological cost reduction + supply-demand synergy" to effectively respond to policy fluctuations and seize industry growth opportunities [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average realized price for methanol in Q3 2025 was $345 per ton, with produced methanol sales of approximately 1.9 million tons, generating adjusted EBITDA of $191 million and adjusted net income of $0.06 per share [5][11] - Adjusted EBITDA increased compared to Q2 2025 primarily due to higher sales of produced product, despite a lower average realized price [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fully owned Beaumont plant and the 50% owned NAT Gasoline plant produced a combined 482,000 tons of methanol and 92,000 tons of ammonia during Q3 2025 [5] - Methanex production in Q3 was higher compared to Q2, with full contributions from new assets and higher production from Geismar, Medicine Hat, and New Zealand [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand was relatively flat in Q3 compared to Q2, with methanol to olefins demand in China operating at high rates, reaching approximately 90% by the end of the quarter [6][7] - The fourth quarter European quarterly price for methanol was €535 per ton, a €5 increase from Q3, while North America, Asia Pacific, and China prices for November were posted at $802, $360, and $340 per ton respectively [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on safely and reliably operating its business and executing its integration plan following the acquisition of new assets [10] - Capital allocation priorities include directing all free cash flow to deleveraging in the near term, with no significant growth capital anticipated over the next few years [11][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects a meaningful increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025 compared to Q3, driven by higher sales levels closer to run-rate equity production [11] - The company is optimistic about the methanol market, indicating that supply continues to be constrained and that they are not concerned about placing additional tons in the market [28] Other Important Information - The company has an expected equity production guidance for 2025 of approximately 8 million tons, consisting of 7.8 million equity tons of methanol and 0.2 million tons of ammonia [10] - The integration plan for newly acquired assets is structured over 18 months, focusing on realizing expected benefits from the acquisition [5][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Relationship with NGC and gas allocation in Trinidad - The company has a contract with NGC for port fees and is in discussions regarding gas availability, with tight gas markets expected to persist [14][15] Question: Recontracting of OCI book - The company increased sales by about 350,000 tons from Q2 to Q3 and is in discussions for recontracting for next year [16][17] Question: Impact of accounting treatment on Q3 EBITDA - The main earnings difference is attributed to a delta of 500,000 to 600,000 tons versus Q3, which is expected to improve in Q4 [20][21] Question: Methanol sales distribution - A large percentage of contracted business is expected to be in North America and Europe, with a diversified customer base [26][27] Question: Global industry utilization rates and demand - Industry operating rates are high, with effective utilization much higher than reported due to idled capacity and geopolitical issues [40][41] Question: Gas purchasing strategy for new assets - The company is currently hedged at around 70% for North American exposure and is opportunistically entering the market for future gas purchases [46][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 18. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand. The raw coal price is firm, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is also firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price of imports is stable, the import parity spread has widened. Iranian gas has not been restricted, and most Iranian plants are operating normally except Kimiya. The non - Iranian operating rate has increased, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference has continued to narrow, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran loaded 600,000 tons in September. Affected by sanctions, the price difference between Iranian and non - Iranian sources has widened rapidly, and non - Iranian supplies have increased. Some Iranian plants are reported to have suspended loading, and US dollar traders are taking profits at high prices. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined, while the MTO device operating rate has rebounded. In terms of inventory, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, with the increase in the international device operating rate, the resumption of some Iranian devices, and the increase in daily output to around 35,000 tons, imports are gradually recovering. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall transaction is light, and the spot basis is stable. The MTO demand is stable, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. Recently, in the peak season of coal demand, the coal price has rebounded, and the domestic supply is loose. The MTO operating rate in the inland is stable, and the CTO external procurement loss is close to the previous low. The Middle East situation is unclear, and the crude oil is oscillating weakly. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthening, and domestic commodities are oscillating widely, which has a greater impact on methanol futures. With the import interference slightly subsiding, methanol will mainly oscillate weakly under the background of high inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high levels but not chase short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; and sell call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the methanol market from aspects of raw coal, supply, import, demand, and inventory. It concludes that methanol will mainly oscillate weakly and provides trading strategies including unilateral shorting at high levels without chasing short positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 16, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.55%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 85.57%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in the country was 68.75%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From October 11 - 17, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1,075,859 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 73.75%. Iranian Kimiya shut down again, the Brunei device restarted in late September, a South American device restarted in the first ten - day period, and a Norwegian device was under maintenance [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of October 15, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 283,800 tons, including 260,500 tons of foreign vessels (202,700 tons of visible and 57,800 tons of non - visible, with 105,700 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 23,300 tons of domestic vessels (3,500 tons of non - visible in Jiangsu and 19,800 tons in Guangdong) [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 16, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 88.08%, the same as last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 94.21%, remaining stable and at a high level [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 18.88%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 72.52%, slightly decreasing. The formaldehyde operating rate was 40.88% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,000 tons, an increase of 44,300 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 236.90% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 98.64% [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of October 15, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 83,500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 31,700 tons [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] 3. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2260 yuan/ton (- 2), and the northern line price was 2040 yuan/ton (- 60) [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Green Methanol Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **green methanol industry** and its intersection with the **shipping industry**'s decarbonization efforts, highlighting the potential for growth driven by regulatory changes and technological advancements [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The shipping industry is pushing for low-carbon solutions, with the **International Maritime Organization (IMO)** potentially implementing a phosphorus emission ban by 2028, which could accelerate the global transition to low-carbon fuels and stimulate demand for green methanol [1][7]. - Green methanol is priced above **1,000 USD/ton** internationally, primarily driven by the shipping sector's need for decarbonization, while gray methanol prices range from **2,200 to 2,500 CNY/ton**, influenced by downstream chemical raw material costs [1][6]. - There are three main production routes for green methanol: 1. Biomass gasification synthesis (cost: **3,000-4,000 CNY/ton**) 2. Biomass coupled with green hydrogen production (cost: **3,000-4,000 CNY/ton**) 3. Electrolysis (cost: **over 5,000 CNY/ton**) [1][8]. - Global green methanol production capacity is expected to reach **500,000 tons** by the end of 2024 and not exceed **1 million tons** by the end of 2025, with domestic capacity also around **500,000 tons** [1][16]. Demand Drivers - The primary demand for green methanol currently comes from the **global shipping industry**, which is undergoing a low-carbon transition. Long-term demand is also anticipated from the chemical industry [2][3]. - The urgency in the shipping sector to adopt green methanol stems from the dominance of shipowners in **Northwest Europe and East Asia**, who control **85%** of global shipping capacity [3]. Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The EU is advancing green regulations in shipping, with new decarbonization laws expected to be implemented in **2024 and 2025**, aiming for an **80% reduction** in carbon emissions by **2050** [9]. - The IMO's measures will require ships to use increasingly green fuels, with penalties for non-compliance, potentially leading to significant financial implications for the shipping industry [10][12]. Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies include transitioning to green methanol production to achieve rapid performance growth and benefiting from increased government support for green methanol, which will drive demand for midstream equipment and EPC companies [17]. - Companies to watch include **Jiaze New Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Jidian Co.**, which have significant market potential due to their existing operations and planned capacity expansions [19]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - Notable projects include **Goldwind Technology's** capacity increase to **1.45 million tons** and **Jidian Co.**'s collaboration with major green fuel demand partners [22][21]. - The domestic equipment sector is expected to see capital expenditures of **30-50 billion CNY** annually, with a focus on gasification equipment and process packages [27][28]. Challenges and Considerations - The shipping industry faces challenges in fuel system maturity, with green methanol being favored over hydrogen and ammonia due to lower technical barriers and compatibility with existing fuel systems [14][15]. - The competition among green methanol suppliers will hinge on their ability to maintain low production costs, with profitability projected at **1,500-2,000 CNY/ton** [18]. Conclusion - The green methanol industry is poised for growth driven by regulatory changes, technological advancements, and increasing demand from the shipping and chemical sectors. Investors should focus on companies with strong market positions and capacity expansion plans to capitalize on this emerging market.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility industry, specifically focusing on green methanol suppliers and equipment investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The demand for green methanol is catalyzed by carbon pricing, opening up a market space worth billions in the shipping industry [4]. - Attention is drawn to flexible stocks with cost and consumption advantages among green methanol suppliers [4]. - The demand for biomass gasification equipment is expected to rise due to project initiations in the midstream equipment sector [4]. Supply and Demand - Carbon pricing is driving the demand for green methanol, with the shipping sector poised to unlock a market space exceeding 100 billion [4]. - The traditional methanol market has not yet adopted carbon pricing, leading to a dominance of gray methanol [5][6]. - The global methanol production capacity is projected to reach 177 million tons by 2024, with China accounting for 58% of this capacity [11]. Green Methanol Production - Green methanol is defined as methanol produced with minimal to zero carbon emissions, categorized into electro-methanol and bio-methanol [12]. - The cost of green methanol production is currently high, primarily due to the costs associated with green hydrogen production [15][18]. - The biomass gasification route for methanol production is more cost-effective than electro-methanol, with potential for further cost reductions [21][25]. Regulatory Environment - The EU's carbon tax is set to impact the shipping industry, with regulations requiring reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from 2025 onwards [26][28]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is implementing a net-zero framework that will enforce carbon emission limits and pricing mechanisms starting in 2025 [29][30]. Market Trends - The share of alternative fuel vessels is increasing, with methanol-powered vessels accounting for 10% of the total orders as of September 2025 [50]. - The demand for green methanol is expected to surge, with projections indicating that by 2027, demand could exceed 9 million tons annually [55]. - The supply agreements for green methanol are intensifying, with major shipping companies signing contracts with suppliers [60][63]. Investment Opportunities - Capital expenditures are anticipated to drive equipment demand, while downstream sales are expected to enhance the performance of suppliers [64]. - The report highlights specific companies such as 嘉泽新能 and 吉电股份, which are positioning themselves to benefit from the green methanol market [68][71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].