华泰证券研报表示，国内绿色甲醇产能呈现"小规模验证、加速落地、储备充足"的格局，截至2025年9 月末已投产19万吨/年、在建311万吨/年，远期规划产能有望达1823万吨/年。技术路线上两大主流路线 并行，绿电制甲醇因降本潜力长期主导地位明确。虽IMO净零框架投票推迟，但航运业脱碳目标未变， 下游需求已逐步形成，短期在建项目落地与政策支持构成催化剂，长期技术降本与规模化打开成长空 间，投资机会覆盖上中下游分环节龙头。整体而言，短期抓"产能落地+政策红利"，长期布局"技术降本 +供需协同"的分环节龙头，可有效应对政策节奏波动，把握行业成长机遇。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average realized price for methanol in Q3 2025 was $345 per ton, with produced methanol sales of approximately 1.9 million tons, generating adjusted EBITDA of $191 million and adjusted net income of $0.06 per share [5][11] - Adjusted EBITDA increased compared to Q2 2025 primarily due to higher sales of produced product, despite a lower average realized price [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fully owned Beaumont plant and the 50% owned NAT Gasoline plant produced a combined 482,000 tons of methanol and 92,000 tons of ammonia during Q3 2025 [5] - Methanex production in Q3 was higher compared to Q2, with full contributions from new assets and higher production from Geismar, Medicine Hat, and New Zealand [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand was relatively flat in Q3 compared to Q2, with methanol to olefins demand in China operating at high rates, reaching approximately 90% by the end of the quarter [6][7] - The fourth quarter European quarterly price for methanol was €535 per ton, a €5 increase from Q3, while North America, Asia Pacific, and China prices for November were posted at $802, $360, and $340 per ton respectively [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on safely and reliably operating its business and executing its integration plan following the acquisition of new assets [10] - Capital allocation priorities include directing all free cash flow to deleveraging in the near term, with no significant growth capital anticipated over the next few years [11][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects a meaningful increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025 compared to Q3, driven by higher sales levels closer to run-rate equity production [11] - The company is optimistic about the methanol market, indicating that supply continues to be constrained and that they are not concerned about placing additional tons in the market [28] Other Important Information - The company has an expected equity production guidance for 2025 of approximately 8 million tons, consisting of 7.8 million equity tons of methanol and 0.2 million tons of ammonia [10] - The integration plan for newly acquired assets is structured over 18 months, focusing on realizing expected benefits from the acquisition [5][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Relationship with NGC and gas allocation in Trinidad - The company has a contract with NGC for port fees and is in discussions regarding gas availability, with tight gas markets expected to persist [14][15] Question: Recontracting of OCI book - The company increased sales by about 350,000 tons from Q2 to Q3 and is in discussions for recontracting for next year [16][17] Question: Impact of accounting treatment on Q3 EBITDA - The main earnings difference is attributed to a delta of 500,000 to 600,000 tons versus Q3, which is expected to improve in Q4 [20][21] Question: Methanol sales distribution - A large percentage of contracted business is expected to be in North America and Europe, with a diversified customer base [26][27] Question: Global industry utilization rates and demand - Industry operating rates are high, with effective utilization much higher than reported due to idled capacity and geopolitical issues [40][41] Question: Gas purchasing strategy for new assets - The company is currently hedged at around 70% for North American exposure and is opportunistically entering the market for future gas purchases [46][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 18. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand. The raw coal price is firm, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is also firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price of imports is stable, the import parity spread has widened. Iranian gas has not been restricted, and most Iranian plants are operating normally except Kimiya. The non - Iranian operating rate has increased, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference has continued to narrow, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran loaded 600,000 tons in September. Affected by sanctions, the price difference between Iranian and non - Iranian sources has widened rapidly, and non - Iranian supplies have increased. Some Iranian plants are reported to have suspended loading, and US dollar traders are taking profits at high prices. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined, while the MTO device operating rate has rebounded. In terms of inventory, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, with the increase in the international device operating rate, the resumption of some Iranian devices, and the increase in daily output to around 35,000 tons, imports are gradually recovering. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall transaction is light, and the spot basis is stable. The MTO demand is stable, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. Recently, in the peak season of coal demand, the coal price has rebounded, and the domestic supply is loose. The MTO operating rate in the inland is stable, and the CTO external procurement loss is close to the previous low. The Middle East situation is unclear, and the crude oil is oscillating weakly. However, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is strengthening, and domestic commodities are oscillating widely, which has a greater impact on methanol futures. With the import interference slightly subsiding, methanol will mainly oscillate weakly under the background of high inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high levels but not chase short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; and sell call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the methanol market from aspects of raw coal, supply, import, demand, and inventory. It concludes that methanol will mainly oscillate weakly and provides trading strategies including unilateral shorting at high levels without chasing short positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 16, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.55%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 85.57%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in the country was 68.75%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From October 11 - 17, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1,075,859 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 73.75%. Iranian Kimiya shut down again, the Brunei device restarted in late September, a South American device restarted in the first ten - day period, and a Norwegian device was under maintenance [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of October 15, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 283,800 tons, including 260,500 tons of foreign vessels (202,700 tons of visible and 57,800 tons of non - visible, with 105,700 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 23,300 tons of domestic vessels (3,500 tons of non - visible in Jiangsu and 19,800 tons in Guangdong) [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 16, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 88.08%, the same as last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 94.21%, remaining stable and at a high level [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 18.88%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 72.52%, slightly decreasing. The formaldehyde operating rate was 40.88% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,000 tons, an increase of 44,300 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 236.90% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 98.64% [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of October 15, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 83,500 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 31,700 tons [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] 3. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2260 yuan/ton (- 2), and the northern line price was 2040 yuan/ton (- 60) [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Green Methanol Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **green methanol industry** and its intersection with the **shipping industry**'s decarbonization efforts, highlighting the potential for growth driven by regulatory changes and technological advancements [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The shipping industry is pushing for low-carbon solutions, with the **International Maritime Organization (IMO)** potentially implementing a phosphorus emission ban by 2028, which could accelerate the global transition to low-carbon fuels and stimulate demand for green methanol [1][7]. - Green methanol is priced above **1,000 USD/ton** internationally, primarily driven by the shipping sector's need for decarbonization, while gray methanol prices range from **2,200 to 2,500 CNY/ton**, influenced by downstream chemical raw material costs [1][6]. - There are three main production routes for green methanol: 1. Biomass gasification synthesis (cost: **3,000-4,000 CNY/ton**) 2. Biomass coupled with green hydrogen production (cost: **3,000-4,000 CNY/ton**) 3. Electrolysis (cost: **over 5,000 CNY/ton**) [1][8]. - Global green methanol production capacity is expected to reach **500,000 tons** by the end of 2024 and not exceed **1 million tons** by the end of 2025, with domestic capacity also around **500,000 tons** [1][16]. Demand Drivers - The primary demand for green methanol currently comes from the **global shipping industry**, which is undergoing a low-carbon transition. Long-term demand is also anticipated from the chemical industry [2][3]. - The urgency in the shipping sector to adopt green methanol stems from the dominance of shipowners in **Northwest Europe and East Asia**, who control **85%** of global shipping capacity [3]. Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The EU is advancing green regulations in shipping, with new decarbonization laws expected to be implemented in **2024 and 2025**, aiming for an **80% reduction** in carbon emissions by **2050** [9]. - The IMO's measures will require ships to use increasingly green fuels, with penalties for non-compliance, potentially leading to significant financial implications for the shipping industry [10][12]. Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies include transitioning to green methanol production to achieve rapid performance growth and benefiting from increased government support for green methanol, which will drive demand for midstream equipment and EPC companies [17]. - Companies to watch include **Jiaze New Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Jidian Co.**, which have significant market potential due to their existing operations and planned capacity expansions [19]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - Notable projects include **Goldwind Technology's** capacity increase to **1.45 million tons** and **Jidian Co.**'s collaboration with major green fuel demand partners [22][21]. - The domestic equipment sector is expected to see capital expenditures of **30-50 billion CNY** annually, with a focus on gasification equipment and process packages [27][28]. Challenges and Considerations - The shipping industry faces challenges in fuel system maturity, with green methanol being favored over hydrogen and ammonia due to lower technical barriers and compatibility with existing fuel systems [14][15]. - The competition among green methanol suppliers will hinge on their ability to maintain low production costs, with profitability projected at **1,500-2,000 CNY/ton** [18]. Conclusion - The green methanol industry is poised for growth driven by regulatory changes, technological advancements, and increasing demand from the shipping and chemical sectors. Investors should focus on companies with strong market positions and capacity expansion plans to capitalize on this emerging market.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility industry, specifically focusing on green methanol suppliers and equipment investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The demand for green methanol is catalyzed by carbon pricing, opening up a market space worth billions in the shipping industry [4]. - Attention is drawn to flexible stocks with cost and consumption advantages among green methanol suppliers [4]. - The demand for biomass gasification equipment is expected to rise due to project initiations in the midstream equipment sector [4]. Supply and Demand - Carbon pricing is driving the demand for green methanol, with the shipping sector poised to unlock a market space exceeding 100 billion [4]. - The traditional methanol market has not yet adopted carbon pricing, leading to a dominance of gray methanol [5][6]. - The global methanol production capacity is projected to reach 177 million tons by 2024, with China accounting for 58% of this capacity [11]. Green Methanol Production - Green methanol is defined as methanol produced with minimal to zero carbon emissions, categorized into electro-methanol and bio-methanol [12]. - The cost of green methanol production is currently high, primarily due to the costs associated with green hydrogen production [15][18]. - The biomass gasification route for methanol production is more cost-effective than electro-methanol, with potential for further cost reductions [21][25]. Regulatory Environment - The EU's carbon tax is set to impact the shipping industry, with regulations requiring reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from 2025 onwards [26][28]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is implementing a net-zero framework that will enforce carbon emission limits and pricing mechanisms starting in 2025 [29][30]. Market Trends - The share of alternative fuel vessels is increasing, with methanol-powered vessels accounting for 10% of the total orders as of September 2025 [50]. - The demand for green methanol is expected to surge, with projections indicating that by 2027, demand could exceed 9 million tons annually [55]. - The supply agreements for green methanol are intensifying, with major shipping companies signing contracts with suppliers [60][63]. Investment Opportunities - Capital expenditures are anticipated to drive equipment demand, while downstream sales are expected to enhance the performance of suppliers [64]. - The report highlights specific companies such as 嘉泽新能 and 吉电股份, which are positioning themselves to benefit from the green methanol market [68][71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].

Core Insights - Shanghai's 100,000-ton green methanol project has achieved significant milestones by obtaining ISCC EU and PLUS certifications, marking it as the first local green methanol production capacity project in Shanghai and the largest in China for producing green methanol from biogas [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is a collaboration among four state-owned enterprises: Sheneng Group, Chengdu Investment Group, Huayi Group, and Shanghai Port Group [1] - It utilizes biomass methanol production routes, sourcing raw materials from urban wet waste and livestock manure, and incorporates green electricity generated from wind power [1] - The project boasts an 80% reduction in average carbon emissions compared to conventional fossil fuel methanol production methods, supporting the green fuel needs of international shipping at Shanghai Port [1] Group 2: Certification Importance - The ISCC EU certification is mandatory for green products entering the EU energy market, while ISCC PLUS certification is recognized globally for various energy and chemical products [2] - Achieving both certifications allows the green methanol produced to enter the EU market, helping Shanghai Port mitigate trade risks and participate in carbon reduction trading [2] - The project is set to be completed by the end of this year, with plans to conduct the first local green methanol refueling at Shanghai Port before the 2026 Spring Festival [2]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is expected to experience a recovery due to easing supply pressures starting from mid to late September, driven by the upcoming consumption peak season and new MTO production capacity coming online [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic methanol production has faced bottlenecks, with overall capacity utilization at a high of 84.58%, limiting further increases in output [2] - The resumption of production in various regions has been gradual, with a total daily output not exceeding 10,000 tons in September [2] - Iran's gas supply risks are anticipated to significantly impact methanol imports, as the government prioritizes residential gas supply over industrial use starting in October [3] Demand Factors - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak is expected to improve traditional downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and textile sectors, which will drive methanol demand [4] - The MTO industry is projected to be the main driver of methanol demand in Q4, with both existing facilities restarting and new capacity coming online [4][5] - The Shandong Lianhong New Materials' 1 million tons/year MTO project is set to be a highlight in Q4, requiring external methanol sourcing [4] Market Outlook - The combination of recovering demand from traditional sectors and the MTO industry's growth is expected to alleviate supply pressures in the methanol market, leading to a potential price rebound [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. Methanol valuation is relatively high. The impact of anti - involution policies on methanol production is likely limited, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually increasing. With high raw material inventories in downstream MTO enterprises, port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, suppressing the spot price in East China. The expected rebound space for methanol is limited [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 12, 2025, MA01 closed at 2496 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.44%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2461 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); MA09 closed at 2391 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.08%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On August 12, 2025, prices in Shandong increased by 25 yuan/ton (1.07%) to 2355 yuan/ton, in Sichuan - Chongqing by 10 yuan/ton (0.44%) to 2260 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 15 yuan/ton (0.63%) to 2390 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 22.5 yuan/ton (1.07%) to 2125 yuan/ton. Prices in Shaanxi decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) to 2142.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 121 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: On August 12, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 coal increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.99%) to 510 yuan/ton, and the price of Datong Q5500 coal increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (1.33%) to 570 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On August 12, 2025, the price in Chongqing decreased by 0.11 yuan/cubic meter (- 3.33%) to 3.19 yuan/cubic meter [1] b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On August 12, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 438.9 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol increased by 88 yuan/ton (17.60%) to - 412 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: On August 12, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO increased by 20 yuan/ton (98.04%) to 40.4 yuan/ton, the profit of East China MTO increased by 16.5 yuan/ton (2.56%) to - 627.07 yuan/ton. The profit of acetic acid decreased by 0.54 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) to 200.39 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE decreased by 30 yuan/ton (- 22.08%) to 105.88 yuan/ton [1] c) Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2391 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273,359 lots, and the open interest was 345,050 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: In the past two days, a 1 - million - ton methanol plant in other regions of the Middle East has resumed normal operation, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1] d) Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2384 at night. The expected anti - involution policy will still fluctuate, and the large fluctuations in coking coal will affect the sentiment of coal - chemical industries. Based on the weak fundamentals, the expected rebound space for methanol is limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the green methanol project, with an investment of approximately 15 billion yuan, marks a significant step towards establishing a sustainable energy and chemical industry in Fujian's Gulei Development Zone [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project aims to produce 1 million tons of green methanol annually, leveraging Gulei's offshore wind power resources and Charoen Pokphand Group's biomass resources [1] - The project will also extend to the production of green sustainable aviation fuel and downstream products like green jet fuel, creating a "green energy + green chemical" industrial chain [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The project is expected to accelerate the construction of a national-level zero-carbon park in Gulei and establish a world-class high-end smart green petrochemical base [1] - It will enhance Charoen Pokphand Group's investment layout in Fujian, facilitating the transition from decarbonized agriculture to decarbonized energy and chemicals [1]