2025年11月28日，全国最大养猪企业牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"牧原股份"）继首次递表失效后，再次向港交所主板更新并递交上市申请，联席保 荐人为摩根士丹利、中信证券、高盛。 牧原股份早在2014年于A股深市主板上市（股票代码：002714.SZ）。截至2025年11月28日收盘，牧原股份A股股价收报50.75元/股，上涨1.7%。若此次港 股发行成功，牧原股份将实现"A+H"两地挂牌。 | | 50.75 +0.85 +1.70% | | | | | 牧原股份 立即 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 002714 父易 | | | SZSE CNY 15:00:00 闭市 查看L2全景 | | | | | 通融バロナ | | | 牧原转债135.500(+1.28%) CPR:18.17% | | Wind ESG评级 | A | | 详情 | | 委比 | -65.27% 委差 | -3755 | 交生 | 36.16% 120日 | | 28.28% | | 卖力 | 50.80 | 3596 | 5日 | 5. ...

记者丨刘婧汐 编辑丨高梦阳 2025年11月28日，全国最大养猪企业牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"牧原股份"）继首次递表失效后，再次向港交所主板更新并递交上市申请，联席保 荐人为摩根士丹利、中信证券、高盛。 牧原股份早在2014年于A股深市主板上市（股票代码：002714.SZ）。截至2025年11月28日收盘，牧原股份A股股价收报50.75元/股，上涨1.7%。若此次港 股发行成功，牧原股份将实现"A+H"两地挂牌。 | | 50.75 +0.85 +1.70% | | | | | 牧原股份 立即 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 002714 父易 | | | SZSE CNY 15:00:00 闭市 查看L2全景 | | | | | 通融公口+ | | | 牧原转债135.500(+1.28%) CPR:18.17% | | Wind ESG评级 | A | | 详情 | | 委比 | -65.27% 委差 | -3755 | 交生 | 36.16% 120日 | | 28.28% | | 卖中 | 50.80 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuran Agriculture (09858) has seen its stock price increase by over 20% this week, with a current rise of 5.13% to HKD 4.3, and a trading volume of HKD 105 million [1] Group 1: Cattle Prices - As of November 21, the price of calves is HKD 32/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63% and a year-to-date increase of 32.73% [1] - The price of fattened bulls is HKD 25.58/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.16% but a year-to-date increase of 8.25% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Due to previous long-term losses, there has been a significant reduction in production capacity, leading to a gradual decrease in breeding cows, which is expected to tighten beef supply in the medium to long term [1] - It is anticipated that beef prices will enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 3: Raw Milk Prices - The reduction in production capacity is expected to lead to a contraction in raw milk supply, with prices likely to stabilize and recover in the coming year [1] - Analysts expect a new cycle for beef prices to begin, with the sector's overall outlook improving [1]

Core Viewpoint - YouRan Agriculture (09858) has seen its stock price increase by over 20% this week, with a current price of 4.3 HKD, reflecting a 5.13% rise as of the latest report [1] Price Trends - The price of calves is reported at 32 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.63% and a year-to-date increase of 32.73% [1] - The price of fattened bulls is at 25.58 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.16% but a year-to-date increase of 8.25% [1] Supply and Demand Outlook - Due to previous long-term losses, there has been a significant reduction in production capacity, leading to a gradual decrease in the number of breeding cows. This effect is expected to tighten beef supply in the medium to long term, with beef prices anticipated to enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [1] - The reduction in production capacity is expected to stabilize and eventually increase raw milk prices in the coming year [1] Market Sentiment - Guojin Securities forecasts that as the supply-side capacity reduction continues, raw milk prices are likely to stabilize and recover next year [1] - Recent increases in calf and live cattle prices suggest the potential onset of a new beef cycle, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]

Overview of Guarantee Situation - The company approved a total guarantee amount of up to 800 million yuan for its partners, including downstream customers and suppliers, during the 2025 fiscal year [2] - The company and its subsidiaries are allowed to provide mutual guarantees, with a maximum guarantee amount of 1.5 billion yuan for subsidiaries with an asset-liability ratio below 70% and another 1.5 billion yuan for those above 70% [2] Progress of Guarantees as of October 2025 - As of October 31, 2025, the company and its subsidiaries provided guarantees totaling 93.96 million yuan to 154 partners [4] - The company has a total external guarantee balance of 742.75 million yuan, which accounts for 28.94% of the latest audited net assets [5] - The actual guarantee balance for subsidiaries is 1.48 billion yuan, representing 57.67% of the latest audited net assets [5] Overdue Guarantees - The overdue amount for mutual guarantees among subsidiaries is 275.82 million yuan, while the overdue amount for external guarantees is 340.23 million yuan [6] - A significant portion of the overdue guarantees (262.87 million yuan) is related to guarantees provided to a subsidiary that was transferred to a trust platform before its separation [6] - The company has recognized expected liabilities for the risks associated with customer defaults and has implemented specific measures to address these risks [6]

Group 1 - The livestock sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) rising, and key stocks such as Jinxinnong (002548) and Yisheng (002458) showing significant gains [1] - Major pig farming companies are expanding into Southeast Asia, indicating a trend of overseas expansion among leading enterprises like Muyuan, New Hope, and Haida [1] - The market is at a critical point of capacity reduction driven by both policy and market forces, with potential improvements in supply-demand relationships expected by mid-2026 if capacity reduction targets are met [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.58% of the index, with companies like Muyuan (002714) and Wens (300498) being the most significant contributors [3] - The overall capital expenditure of listed pig farming companies is stabilizing and slightly decreasing, as many firms are halting capacity expansion projects due to narrowing profits and cash flow pressures [2] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes companies involved in feed, pharmaceuticals, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that live cattle prices have room for growth, while milk prices remain at historically low levels. The ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory and the gradual impact of the reduction in beef breeding cows are expected to improve the performance of upstream breeding companies. The outlook for raw milk and beef cycles is positive, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices and profitability for the industry [1]. Summary by Category Raw Milk - After the double festival, supply and demand are relatively stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase. The overall supply-demand situation has remained stable since Q3, continuing in an oversupply state, with contract prices remaining flat [2]. - The demand for dairy products is under pressure, with a significant decline in sales since Q3 2025, exceeding double digits. The performance of ambient products is notably weaker than that of chilled products. Domestic brands hold only 4% of the market share in deep processing, indicating substantial room for domestic replacement [2]. Beef Cattle - Live cattle prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a cumulative reduction in inventory exceeding 10% since 2024. Attention is drawn to changes in supply by 2026 [3]. - The prices of live cattle and cull cows have been fluctuating at high levels since Q3 2025, with cull cow prices improving, which will enhance profit margins. However, profits are still significantly below the peak of the previous cycle [3]. Future Outlook - Domestic liquid milk demand remains under pressure, but there is potential for growth in deep processing and export markets. The supply-side reduction in inventory is expected to slow down, with expectations for slight acceleration in inventory reduction during the off-season [4]. - The reduction of breeding cows may exceed 10% since 2024, leading to a shortage in domestic cattle supply, which is a key driver for the current rise in beef prices. The previous cycle saw an 11% decline in inventory, resulting in a price increase of over 60% for fattening cattle. The current increase in live cattle prices is still below 20%, indicating further potential for price growth [4].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming industry is expected to experience a resonance of cycles and growth opportunities by 2026, with the swine sector reaching a critical point of de-stocking, leading to potential value recovery for cost-leading enterprises. The beef industry is projected to maintain a high prosperity cycle until 2027, while the poultry sector shows a clear upward price trend due to supply contraction [1]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is witnessing a significant slowdown in production capacity due to ongoing losses and declining pig prices, reaching a de-stocking critical point. Leading companies with low-cost advantages are expected to realize value release, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture. Smaller pig farming companies with growth potential are also suggested for attention [2]. Beef Sector - The beef sector is in a high prosperity cycle, with slow supply recovery and rising global beef prices driven by import policy restrictions. The main upward wave of the cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with recommendations for companies such as Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3]. Poultry Sector - In the poultry sector, the yellow chicken segment is experiencing capacity de-stocking due to continuous losses, although parent stock remains high. Companies with rapid capacity expansion and strong cost control, such as Lihua Agricultural Science and Technology, are favored. The white feather chicken segment is awaiting a cycle reversal, with recommendations for integrated leaders like Shennong Development and upstream chick leaders like Yisheng Livestock and Poultry [4]. Feed Sector - The feed sector emphasizes cost control and industry chain extension, focusing on companies with strong cost management capabilities and established overseas operations. Recommended companies include Haida Group and Bangji Technology [5]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector highlights the importance of research and innovation, recommending companies that can avoid price wars. Key focuses include product layout in the pet segment and breakthroughs in high-value pet pharmaceuticals. Recommended companies include Reap Bio, which benefits from the recovery of livestock prices, and companies like Kexin Bio, Plank Bio, and Zhongmu Bio with strong competitive advantages [6]. Planting Industry - The planting industry is expected to see grain prices stabilize, influenced by high production and inventory levels. Grain security remains a priority, with a shift from cyclical to growth valuations in the seed industry. Recommended companies include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with attention to seed companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech [7]. Pet Industry - The pet industry is thriving, driven by domestic demand and exports, with rapid growth of domestic brands. Key companies to watch include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and pet supplies companies like Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet [8].

Core Insights - The pork stocks have seen an increase, with notable gains in companies like Luoniushan and Jinxinnong, while the Livestock Breeding ETF has also experienced a net inflow of approximately 96 million yuan over the past 20 trading days [1][3] Industry Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the national breeding sow inventory for October was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads from September, marking a decline of 1.1% [1] - The average price of live pigs as of November 24 was 11.6 yuan/kg, down from 12.25 yuan/kg on September 30, indicating a price drop of 0.65 yuan/kg [3] - The price of piglets also fell to 21.21 yuan/kg, down 1.01 yuan/kg from 22.22 yuan/kg on September 30 [3] - The pig-to-grain ratio is currently at 5.23, down from 5.44 at the end of September, reflecting significant supply pressure in the industry [3] Financial Performance - The current profitability for purchased piglets and self-bred piglets is reported at -234.64 yuan/head and -135.9 yuan/head respectively, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous week [3] - The industry is facing comprehensive losses, with supply pressures expected to persist in the short term, leading to passive capacity reduction [3] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the industry may enter an accelerated phase of capacity reduction due to dual pressures from policy adjustments and production losses, presenting potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [4] - In the medium to long term, leading breeding companies are expected to see a decrease in costs and an increase in profit margins, supported by stable cash flows and dividend expectations [4] - The Livestock Breeding ETF, which tracks the livestock breeding index, has the lowest management fee rate of 0.2% per year among similar ETFs, making it an attractive option for investors [4]

Core Insights - The trade tensions between the US and China have escalated, particularly under Trump's administration, which has implemented significant tariffs on Chinese goods, impacting various sectors, especially agriculture [2][3][5] - The US agricultural sector, despite its strength, is facing challenges due to retaliatory tariffs from China, leading to a sharp decline in exports and financial strain on American farmers [3][5][10] - China is actively seeking alternative sources for agricultural imports, reducing its reliance on US products, which has implications for global trade dynamics [5][8][10] Group 1: US Agricultural Sector - The US is a leading agricultural exporter, with corn production reaching 386 million tons in 2023, significantly outpacing China [2] - The agricultural workforce constitutes only 1.5% of the US population, yet it supports 18% of global food supply, showcasing high efficiency and productivity [2] - In response to tariffs, US agricultural exports to China have plummeted, with soybean exports dropping nearly 50% in the first half of 2025 [3][10] Group 2: China's Response and Strategy - China has imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 34% on US agricultural products, targeting key exports like soybeans and corn, which directly affects US farmers [3][5] - China is diversifying its agricultural imports, increasing purchases from Brazil and Argentina, which have seen significant growth in their export volumes to China [5][8] - The Chinese government is investing in agricultural technology and practices to enhance productivity and reduce dependency on US imports, including initiatives like the "vegetable basket project" [8][10] Group 3: Trade Dynamics and Future Outlook - The ongoing trade war is reshaping global supply chains, with companies relocating to other Asian countries to avoid US tariffs, while Chinese firms are seizing opportunities to invest in manufacturing [10][12] - Despite temporary agreements, the core issues remain unresolved, and the agricultural sector in the US continues to face significant challenges due to the tariffs [10][12] - The long-term outlook suggests that China's agricultural sector is strengthening, potentially leading to a shift in the balance of power in global agriculture [12][13]