最近，国际财经领域传出了两条重要消息，虽然看似没什么关联，但背后都反映出一个正在发生的大趋势。 首先，关于中国的黄金储备问题。中国央行刚刚宣布，到今年9月底，我国的黄金储备已经达到了7406万盎司，比上个月多了4万盎司。有人可 能会好奇，为什么央行这么热衷于囤积黄金呢？其实原因并不复杂：当前全球形势不稳定，像美元和欧元这样的货币，其价值常常受到各国政 策的影响，随时可能波动。而黄金，自古以来都被视为最为稳固的硬通货，无论全球哪个国家加息或爆发战争，黄金的价值总能保持稳定。因 此，通过增加黄金储备，实际上是在为国家的金融安全增添一层保护屏障。 接下来，第二条消息与人民币的使用有关。最近，俄罗斯的石油商要求印度买家用人民币支付石油款项，而且很多印度商人也表示愿意接受。 这背后有几个原因。首先，中印关系逐渐回暖，双方的经济往来也更为密切。其次，过去，印度要购买俄罗斯石油，必须先将印度卢比换成美 元，然后再用美元付款，这不仅手续繁琐，还要支付一定的手续费。而如今，直接使用人民币付款，不仅可以简化交易流程，还能避免中间的 美元环节，降低了成本，提高了效率。最后，俄罗斯还给印度提供了很大的折扣优惠，毕竟印度进口的石油有近 ...

乌克兰总统泽连斯基当地时间10月4日在其晚间例行视频讲话中称，当天签署多项针对俄罗斯的新制裁 决定，涉及俄企业家、军工产业和石油行业等领域。 泽连斯基表示，乌克兰将继续执行对俄的综合施压政策。（总台记者 王晋燕） ...

格隆汇9月30日丨通源石油(300164.SZ)公布，截至本公告披露日，公司第一期员工持股计划所持有的 290万股公司股票已通过集中竞价交易方式全部出售完毕。本次员工持股计划的股份出售严格遵守市场 交易规则及中国证监会、深圳证券交易所关于信息敏感期不得买卖股票的规定，不存在利用内幕信息进 行交易的情形。员工持股计划管理委员会后续将根据有关规定完成清算、分配等事宜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International Industry (000159) has shown a mixed performance in recent trading sessions, with a slight decline in stock price and varying capital flows indicating differing investor sentiments [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the stock closed at 5.69 yuan, down 0.18%, with a turnover rate of 2.5% and a trading volume of 120,400 hands, resulting in a transaction amount of 68.42 million yuan [1]. - The capital flow data on September 19 indicates a net outflow of 1.09 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 1.59% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 2.56 million yuan, representing 3.74% of the total [1]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The total market value of International Industry is 2.735 billion yuan, significantly lower than the industry average of 177.808 billion yuan, ranking 18th out of 20 in the sector [2]. - The company reported a net profit of 24.7698 million yuan for the first half of 2025, which is a 17.16% increase year-on-year, despite a 49.96% decline in main operating revenue to 946 million yuan [2]. - The company's gross profit margin stands at 11.08%, which is below the industry average of 19.25%, ranking 13th in the sector [2]. Group 3: Operational Insights - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a single-quarter main operating revenue of 587 million yuan, down 50.46% year-on-year, while the single-quarter net profit rose by 25% to 16.1569 million yuan [2]. - The company operates primarily in the wholesale of oil and chemical products, as well as the manufacturing of metal structure products [2].

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly discussing the potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with significant attention on the upcoming monetary policy decision that could impact various asset classes and present investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - CICC believes there is a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts this month, with market expectations for a rate cut in September exceeding 90%, and probabilities for cuts in October and December also above 70% [3]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The Federal Reserve's rate cut may help alleviate external constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for a "moderately loose monetary policy" [4]. - A weaker dollar resulting from the rate cut could lead to a relative appreciation of the RMB, impacting export-oriented and overseas enterprises, while reducing repayment pressure for companies with dollar-denominated debt [4]. - The rate cut is expected to promote global capital reallocation, potentially benefiting Chinese assets as global liquidity is released [5]. Group 3: Stock Market Focus - CICC highlights several stock market sectors to watch, including foreign-invested heavy stocks, which may see marginal impacts from global capital reallocation due to the Fed's rate cut [6]. - Companies that may benefit from RMB appreciation, particularly those with significant dollar-denominated debt, are also of interest [7]. - Sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as finance and certain consumer goods, may present short-term opportunities if growth-stabilizing policies are intensified [8]. Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - CICC anticipates upward price movements for copper and aluminum, driven by macroeconomic shifts and strong domestic demand, with the Fed's rate cut potentially acting as a catalyst [10]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to remain robust, with no signs of a drastic decline in demand during the peak season [11]. - In the gold market, the Fed's rate cut expectations may provide short-term support, particularly if the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing [12][14]. - For oil, CICC has adjusted its global supply surplus expectations and maintains a price range forecast of $65-$70 per barrel for Brent crude, citing various market dynamics [15].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3874.52 points, with a change of 0.33% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 19671.23 billion yuan [1] Stocks with Death Cross - A total of 132 A-shares have seen their 5-day moving average cross below the 10-day moving average [1] - Notable stocks with significant distance between their 5-day and 10-day moving averages include: - COFCO Technology: 5-day MA is -0.97% below the 10-day MA [1] - Jiuri New Materials: 5-day MA is -0.94% below the 10-day MA [1] - Potential Energy: 5-day MA is -0.81% below the 10-day MA [1] Detailed Stock Performance - COFCO Technology (301058): Today's change is -0.44%, with a 5-day MA of 11.40 yuan and a 10-day MA of 11.51 yuan, showing a distance of -0.97% [1] - Jiuri New Materials (688199): Today's change is +0.71%, with a 5-day MA of 27.31 yuan and a 10-day MA of 27.57 yuan, showing a distance of -0.94% [1] - Potential Energy (300191): Today's change is -0.10%, with a 5-day MA of 20.42 yuan and a 10-day MA of 20.59 yuan, showing a distance of -0.81% [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Tongzhou Electronics (002052): -0.77% change, 5-day MA of 14.80 yuan, 10-day MA of 14.91 yuan, distance of -0.72% [1] - Shun Group (603922): -1.84% change, 5-day MA of 22.58 yuan, 10-day MA of 22.73 yuan, distance of -0.65% [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Changes - Yibin Paper (600793): -1.04% change, 5-day MA of 24.23 yuan, 10-day MA of 24.34 yuan, distance of -0.45% [2] - Tianrun Dairy (600419): -2.18% change, 5-day MA of 10.60 yuan, 10-day MA of 10.65 yuan, distance of -0.44% [2] - ST Nanchuan (300198): -1.29% change, 5-day MA of 2.34 yuan, 10-day MA of 2.35 yuan, distance of -0.43% [2]

1. Report Basic Information - Research Object: Heshun Petroleum [17] - Industry: Petroleum industry [2] - Reception Time: September 15, 2025 [17] - Company Reception Staff: Chairman and General Manager Zhao Zhong, Independent Director Xu Liping, Financial Controller Yu Meiling, and Board Secretary Ma Wenjing [17] 2. Core Viewpoints - As of June 30, 2025, the company's registered members exceeded 4.76 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.43%, showing strong customer attraction and brand cohesion [24] - As of the end of June 2025, the national new energy vehicle ownership reached 36.89 million, accounting for 10.27% of the total vehicle volume. The new energy vehicle development has an impact on the overall refined oil retail industry, and the company launched the charging pile business in late 2023 [24] - In the first half of 2025, the company's operating income was 1.456 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.97%. The attributable net profit was 14.05 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 48.75% due to oil price fluctuations and narrowing price spreads [24][25] - The company's new energy business is expanding steadily. The investment team's market research is not limited by cooperation models and partners, and it does not rule out cooperation with new - force brands [26] - The company is actively looking for and negotiating potential targets for expanding charging pile layouts, and specific situations will be announced in company announcements or regular reports [26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Basic Situation - The research object is Heshun Petroleum in the petroleum industry, and the reception time is September 15, 2025. The reception staff includes the chairman, general manager, independent director, financial controller, and board secretary [17] 3.2 Detailed Research Institutions - The reception objects include investors and others [20] 3.3 Research Institution Proportion - No relevant content provided 3.4 Main Content Data - As of June 30, 2025, the company's registered members exceeded 4.76 million, up 9.43% year - on - year. Members can enjoy preferential activities and value - added services [24] - As of the end of June 2025, the national new energy vehicle ownership was 36.89 million, accounting for 10.27% of the total vehicle volume. The company launched the charging pile business in late 2023 to embrace the development opportunities of new energy vehicles [24] - In the first half of 2025, the company's operating income was 1.456 billion yuan, up 5.97% year - on - year, mainly due to the growth of wholesale revenue. The attributable net profit was 14.05 million yuan, down 48.75% year - on - year, mainly due to oil price fluctuations and narrowing price spreads [24][25] - The company's new energy business is expanding steadily, and it does not rule out cooperation with new - force brands in the future [26] - The company is actively looking for and negotiating potential targets for expanding charging pile layouts, and specific situations will be announced in company announcements or regular reports [26]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, indicating a slowdown in hiring due to trade tensions [1] - Manufacturing, wholesale retail, and energy sectors are particularly affected, with significant job losses reported [2] - Companies like John Deere have reported substantial financial losses due to tariffs, with a projected loss of $300 million by 2025, leading to layoffs [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty from fluctuating policies is causing companies to adopt a cautious approach, often leading to hiring freezes [3] - Executives from various sectors express that without stable policies and predictable costs, recruitment and expansion plans are on hold [3] - The Trump administration maintains that tariffs will ultimately boost employment by encouraging businesses to relocate operations back to the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Some companies report benefits from tariffs, claiming they help their business, while others highlight the negative impact on hiring and growth [4] - Economic experts argue that the manufacturing sector's struggles are due to demand slowdown and unresolved policy shifts rather than labor supply issues [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "Anything But Bonds" (ABB) trading strategy to the "Anything But The Dollar" (ABD) paradigm, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investment strategies [1]. Market Expectations - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut, which is perceived as credible amid a backdrop of accelerating U.S. economic growth [2]. - The current market reaction suggests a resurgence of risk parity strategies, breaking through highs for 2024 [2]. Asset Performance - Year-to-date, asset performance has shown significant divergence, with gold leading at a 38% increase, outperforming global equities (25%) and Bitcoin (23%) [4]. - In contrast, the dollar and oil have been the biggest losers, down 10% and 13% respectively, supporting the view of a weakening dollar [5]. Economic Growth and Market Trends - Hartnett predicts that U.S. nominal GDP growth, which surged by 54% since 2020, will peak in 2025, slowing from a 6% annual growth rate to 4% due to weakening government spending and labor market conditions [9]. - The peak in nominal growth typically signals a peak in bond yields, suggesting the end of a prolonged bear market in bonds by 2025 [13]. Investment Opportunities - The end of the ABB trading cycle is expected to benefit long-neglected, interest-sensitive assets such as small-cap and value stocks, which are currently at near-historic low rolling return rates compared to large-cap stocks [14][13]. - Hartnett emphasizes the importance of embracing the ABD theme, advocating for investments in non-dollar assets, particularly in international markets, as the dollar weakens and fiscal expansions occur in Europe and Japan [16]. AI Bubble and Credit Market Risks - While AI remains a bright spot in the market, there are risks associated with the rapid increase in capital expenditures for AI, which have surged from 35% to 72% of cash flow in 2023 [18]. - The technology sector's credit spreads are at their narrowest since 1997, indicating a lack of concern among credit investors regarding the risks associated with the AI sector's spending [20]. Policy, Profits, and Political Landscape - Hartnett uses the "PPP" framework to analyze the current situation, noting that the Fed's anticipated rate cuts are seen as preemptive, which has led to a narrowing of credit spreads and a rise in interest-sensitive stocks [24]. - The labor market is weak, with an average of only 64,000 new jobs added monthly over the past six months, but this is offset by a strong "K-shaped" wealth effect [25]. - Political risks are rising due to populism, high inflation, and significant wealth disparity, which may lead to policies reminiscent of the early 1970s aimed at reducing unemployment while controlling inflation [27][28].

Group 1 - The company, Taishan Petroleum (000554), reported that as of September 10, 2025, the total number of registered shareholders is 46,360 [1]