联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 9 月，从物价角度来看，关注的是三个变化。 首先 ， 制造业投资累计增速或将是 2021 年以来首次低于 GDP 累计增速，预计 1-9 月制造业投资累计增 速为 4.0% ，前三季度 GDP 累计增速为 5.1% 左右（三季度当季预计为 4.8% 左右）。这有助于改善中期 维度的供需矛盾。 其次 ， 物价的领先指标，金融层面的 M1 或开始回落，这意味着未来 3-4 个季度的物 价走势存在反复的可能。 再次 ， 物价的静态表现， 9 月 PPI 同比收窄，但环比或再次转跌，反映了当下 终端需求尤其是内需依然偏弱的状态，预计 9 月社零同比 3.2% 左右， 1-9 月固投累计增速 -0.2% ， 9 月 出口同比 6% 左右。 以上三个变化对于政策而言，需密切关注短期经济运行，适时在终端需求层面予以加力。 根据 9 月 29 日 发改委发布会，"将持续加强经济监测预测预警，做好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及时推出"。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 近期以来，政策已经有所微调的包括一线城 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September shows a slight recovery, indicating improved production activity, with the production index rising to 51.9% from 50.8% in the previous month [2][4][11]. Group 1: Production Strengthening - The overall PMI index for September is 49.8%, up from 49.4% in August, primarily driven by a rebound in production [4][9]. - The recovery in production is attributed to stronger performance in the midstream and downstream sectors, with the midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reaching 51.9% and the consumer goods PMI at 50.6% [4][9]. - Factors contributing to this recovery include inventory replenishment and strong external demand, as indicated by a global manufacturing PMI increase to 50.9% in August and a 7.3% year-on-year growth in port container throughput in September [4][9]. Group 2: Data Insights - The September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, with specific indices showing: production index at 51.9%, new orders index at 49.7%, new export orders index at 47.8%, employment index at 48.5%, and raw material inventory index at 48.5% [2][11]. - The price index shows a decline, with the PMI output price index at 48.2%, continuing below the neutral line for 16 consecutive months [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month but still below last year's level, while the service sector remains in the expansion zone with a PMI of 50.1% [3][14]. Group 3: Expectations and Comprehensive Output - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1% in September, reflecting increased confidence among businesses, particularly in sectors like food processing and automotive [3][14]. - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities across sectors [3][14].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, an increase from the previous value of 49.4%[2] - The production index within the PMI rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from 50.8%[4] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5%[10] Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reached 51.9%, significantly better than the previous 50.5%[4] - The consumer goods PMI improved to 50.6%, compared to 49.2% previously[4] - The construction industry PMI is at 49.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from last month but lower than last year's 50.7%[3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index fell to 48.2%, down from 49.1%, marking 16 consecutive months below the boom-bust line[11] - The main raw materials purchase price index is at 53.2%, slightly down from 53.3%[11] - The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, up from 53.7%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities[10]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 09 月 27 日 企业盈利增速转正 ——2025 年 8 月工业企业利润分析 频率：每月 事件：2025 年 9 月 27 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 8 月全国规模以上工业企业 绩效数据。8 月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入累计同比增速为 2.3%（2025 年 7 月为 2.3%）；规模以上工业企业利润累计同比增速为 0.9%（2025 年 7 月 为-1.7%)。 风险提示：政策变动、经济修复不及预期。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《 财政集中发力期渐进—— 2025 年 8 月财政数据点评》 2025-09-18 2、《降息指引低于预期——9 月美联储议息会议点评》2025- 09-18 3、《固定投资继续降速 —— 2025 年 8 月份经济数据点评》 2025-09-16 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 罗丹 S1090524070004 luodan7@cmschina.com.cn 资料来源：Wind、招商证券 资料来源：Wind、招商证券 -50 0 50 100 2020-01 ...

Price Index Insights - In July, the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index were 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The main raw material purchase price index returned above the threshold for the first time in five months, indicating a strong response from enterprises to price expectations under the "anti-involution" policy[8] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry had the highest factory price index at 88.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 80.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 74.5 percentage points[14] PMI Performance by Sector - The comprehensive PMI for "anti-involution" industries recorded 48% in July, up from 47.8% in the previous month, but still below the critical point[21] - Non-"anti-involution" industries maintained a PMI of 50.1%, down from 50.9%, indicating continued expansion[21] - Different enterprise sizes showed varied performance, with large, medium, and small enterprises' PMI at 50.3%, 49.5%, and 46.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline for large and small enterprises while medium enterprises improved[25] Policy and Seasonal Effects - The July Politburo meeting calibrated market expectations for the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting that the manufacturing PMI may remain below the threshold in August[26] - Extreme weather conditions, including record rainfall in Hebei and Inner Mongolia, are expected to further impact production in July and August, leading to a weaker PMI outlook[39] - The "anti-involution" policy's first month showed a divergence in PMI across sectors and enterprise types, influenced by both policy and seasonal effects[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[45] - Measurement errors in PMI indicators related to "anti-involution" industries may arise due to incomplete industry self-regulation[45]

Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold of 50[1] - The production and demand indices have risen into the expansion zone, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing activity[5] - The purchasing volume index showed the largest month-on-month improvement, followed by finished goods inventory and price indices[5] - The new orders index rose to 50.2, up by 0.4 from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased to 47.7, up by 0.2[10] - The price index remains at historical lows, which continues to squeeze future profit margins for companies[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with the service sector at 50.1 and the construction sector at 52.8, indicating mixed performance across sectors[12] - The service sector PMI saw a slight decline due to seasonal adjustments post-holiday, but is expected to rebound with the upcoming summer consumption peak[12] - The construction sector PMI showed a recovery, with the business activity index for housing construction rising above 51%, signaling positive changes in housing activity[13] - The investment in construction remains low year-on-year, primarily due to insufficient real estate investment demand[13]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the tire industry and its relation to the automotive supply chain, particularly focusing on the impact of recent tariff policies in the United States and their effects on both domestic and international markets [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Tire Industry**: - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was initially high in Q1 2025 but dropped to last year's levels after the implementation of equal tariffs in April and further declined with the introduction of tariffs on auto parts in May [1][2]. - This indicates a sustained negative impact from tariffs on the tire industry [2]. 2. **Consumer Behavior and Inventory Management**: - U.S. consumers showed a cautious approach to spending, with durable goods orders spiking in March but declining to the lowest growth rate of the year by April, reflecting increased uncertainty [1][3][4]. - Companies are advised to focus on inventory management and adjust production and sales strategies in response to changing demand [1]. 3. **U.S. Import Trends**: - In Q1 2025, U.S. imports accounted for nearly 13% of consumer spending, with industrial goods imports increasing by 53% year-over-year, while energy imports remained stable [5][6]. - There was a notable decline in imports of automobiles and parts, attributed to domestic price wars in the automotive sector [6]. 4. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: - The domestic economy entered a low season in May, with declines in asphalt and cement mill operating rates, and a drop in rebar demand [8]. - However, the issuance of government bonds and special bonds may support infrastructure development [8]. 5. **Economic Performance in Q2 2025**: - The overall economic performance has shown seasonal weakness, with a decline in operating rates and low PTA prices [9]. - New home sales have rebounded to last year's levels, but the second-hand housing market remains weak [9]. 6. **Manufacturing PMI Data**: - May's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.5, indicating a slight increase but still below the growth threshold, reflecting the impact of tariffs and other uncertainties [12][18]. - The service sector showed resilience, with a business activity expectation index reaching 56.5, indicating strong performance in productive services [19]. 7. **Future Economic Predictions**: - The upcoming months are expected to be challenging due to seasonal factors and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which may continue to impact manufacturing negatively [20]. - There is a need for potential policy measures to support domestic demand and stabilize production growth [20]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the complex interplay between tariff policies, consumer behavior, and inventory management, emphasizing the need for companies to remain agile in their strategies [2][4][10]. - The discussion also touches on the broader economic cycles, indicating that the current tariff uncertainties are beginning to yield to cyclical economic pressures [10][21].

Core Viewpoint - The May PMI data indicates a series of characteristics reflecting a weak but stabilizing economy, with improvements driven by eased tariffs and a package of financial policies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" (EPMI, BCI, PMI) show consistent upward trends, suggesting a recovery in May after a downturn in April due to tariff disruptions [1][4]. - The EPMI increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, which is still the third lowest reading for the same period historically [6][7]. - The BCI rose slightly by 0.2 points to 50.3, remaining below last year's level, indicating mixed microeconomic conditions [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 points to 49.5, still below the neutral level of 50, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3 [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector leads in absolute economic performance, followed by downstream consumer goods, while upstream raw materials lag behind [8][9]. - The May equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2, indicating positive trends in these sectors [9][10]. Group 3: Export and Demand - New export orders rose significantly by 2.8 points, reflecting a recovery in exports following the joint statement from the US and Japan [15][16]. - The production index increased to 50.7, and the purchasing volume index rose to 47.6, indicating a rebound in production and procurement activities [17]. Group 4: Price Trends and Expectations - Price indicators have not fully stabilized, but the downward pressure has eased, with the purchasing price index slightly declining to 46.9 [17][18]. - Microeconomic expectations have improved, with the production activity expectation index rising to 52.5, although still below March levels [19][20]. - The finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management by companies [22]. Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction sector remains weak, with the building PMI at 51.0, down from 51.9, indicating that real estate construction is a major drag on overall economic performance [23][24].