宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】1 月通胀数据点评 PPI 同比转正时点或提前 主要观点 ❖ 1 月份通胀数据述评：整体趋势继续改善 PPI 环比上涨 0.4%，连续四个月上涨。环比来看，全国统一大市场建设带动 部分行业价格上涨（水泥、锂电池、光伏设备和元器件、基础化学原料、黑色 冶炼加工），AI 和节前备货需求增长带动相关行业价格上涨（计算机电子、工 业美术用品、农副食品加工），输入性因素影响国内石油相关行业价格下降、 有色相关行业价格上涨。 本月是基期轮换后的首次数据发布。基期轮换后，调查分类目录、调查网点和 代表规格品、权数等均有小幅变动。但根据统计局的测算，本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 ❖ PPI 同比转正时点或提前 PPI 同比在今年三季度转正的概率较大，主要考虑以下三个因素： 第一，中游供需持续改善带来的价格止跌企稳的时点或已提前。在前期报告 中，我们基于 2015-2016 年、2019-2020 年的经验，即从中游装备制造业的供 给增速首次低于需求增速到价格环比止跌回升，大约历时 6-7 个季度。据此 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, down by 1.6 percentage points[2] - The new export orders index also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in export momentum compared to the previous month[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued attention is needed on marginal changes in investment, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and new policies from the upcoming Two Sessions[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the improvement in inflation data for November, highlighting the trends in CPI and PPI, and outlines key macroeconomic price clues for the upcoming year [2][4][9]. Group 1: November Inflation Data - CPI year-on-year increased from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations, while core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022 [2][9]. - PPI year-on-year decreased from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%, indicating a continued decline influenced by high base effects [2][9]. - The GDP deflator for November is estimated at around -0.4%, slightly better than the previous month's estimate of -0.5% [2][9]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing CPI - The significant rise in CPI is primarily driven by food prices, which increased by 0.5% month-on-month, contrasting with a decline of -2.7% in the same month last year [2][9]. - Seasonal factors have positively impacted fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather conditions affecting production and transportation [2][9]. - Core CPI's stability is attributed to the continuous rise in medical service prices, which have increased for eight consecutive months, and the impact of rising gold prices [2][9]. Group 3: PPI Trends - PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month for two consecutive months, driven by seasonal demand in coal and gas industries [3][30]. - The input factors have led to a decline in domestic oil-related industry prices while prices in the non-ferrous sector have risen [3][30]. - The equipment manufacturing sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with computer and communication electronics prices rising by 0.1% [3][30]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Price Clues for Next Year - CPI is expected to show a confirmed upward trend next year, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.7% [4][10]. - PPI is also anticipated to recover, although the timing for a positive shift remains uncertain, with a projected year-on-year average of -1.4% [4][10]. - The improvement in the supply-demand relationship in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector is crucial for stabilizing PPI [4][15]. Group 5: Potential Risks and Opportunities - The potential upward risk for CPI includes improvements in service sector price increases, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand to service consumption [5][12]. - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector's supply-demand dynamics are critical, as historical patterns suggest a lag of 6-7 quarters before PPI prices stabilize after supply growth falls below demand growth [4][15].

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI increased year-on-year from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations of 0.7%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022[2] - PPI decreased year-on-year from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%[2] Key Influences on CPI - Food prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% compared to -2.7% in November last year[2] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather affecting production and transportation[2] - Medical service prices increased by 0.3%, marking the eighth consecutive month of price rises[2] PPI Trends - PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase[3] - Seasonal demand in coal and gas industries contributed to price increases[3] - The computer and electronics sector saw a price increase of 0.1%, while the automotive sector's price decline narrowed from -0.2% to -0.1%[3] Future Inflation Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a positive year-on-year trend, with projections of around 0.7% for next year[4] - PPI is anticipated to show a recovery trend, but the timing for a positive year-on-year change remains uncertain, with estimates around -1.4% for next year[4] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream manufacturing sector are crucial for PPI stabilization[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential upward risks for CPI include improvements in service sector pricing, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand[5] - The midstream manufacturing sector's price stabilization is critical for PPI recovery, as it has been a significant drag on overall PPI performance[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three significant changes in the economic landscape for September, focusing on manufacturing investment growth, price indicators, and the current state of demand, suggesting a need for policy adjustments to stimulate demand [2]. GDP - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is expected to be around 4.8%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters [4][11]. - Key downward factors include a decline in industrial production, construction, real estate, and wholesale retail sectors, with retail sales growth expected to drop to around 3.2% in September [4][12]. Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to show a month-on-month increase of about 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of around -0.2% in September [5][13]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decrease by approximately -0.2% month-on-month but improve from -2.9% to -2.5% year-on-year [5][14]. Production - Industrial production growth is anticipated to be around 6.0% in September, with strong performance in the manufacturing sector driven by increased production and external demand [15]. Foreign Trade - Exports are expected to grow by about 6% year-on-year in September, supported by low base effects and resilient non-U.S. demand [16]. - Imports are projected to increase by around 1%, influenced by rising commodity prices and stable export performance [17]. Fixed Asset Investment - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth is expected to decline to around -0.2% for the first nine months, with manufacturing investment growth dropping to 4.0% and real estate investment falling to -13.2% [18]. Real Estate Sales - Real estate sales are projected to have a growth rate of approximately 0% in September, with recent policy adjustments in major cities potentially leading to a slight recovery in sales [7][19]. Retail Sales - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 3.2% in September, influenced by high base effects and changes in consumer behavior [21][22]. Financial Indicators - New social financing is estimated at 3 trillion yuan in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 610 billion yuan, while M2 growth is projected at around 8.4% [8][23].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September shows a slight recovery, indicating improved production activity, with the production index rising to 51.9% from 50.8% in the previous month [2][4][11]. Group 1: Production Strengthening - The overall PMI index for September is 49.8%, up from 49.4% in August, primarily driven by a rebound in production [4][9]. - The recovery in production is attributed to stronger performance in the midstream and downstream sectors, with the midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reaching 51.9% and the consumer goods PMI at 50.6% [4][9]. - Factors contributing to this recovery include inventory replenishment and strong external demand, as indicated by a global manufacturing PMI increase to 50.9% in August and a 7.3% year-on-year growth in port container throughput in September [4][9]. Group 2: Data Insights - The September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, with specific indices showing: production index at 51.9%, new orders index at 49.7%, new export orders index at 47.8%, employment index at 48.5%, and raw material inventory index at 48.5% [2][11]. - The price index shows a decline, with the PMI output price index at 48.2%, continuing below the neutral line for 16 consecutive months [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.3%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month but still below last year's level, while the service sector remains in the expansion zone with a PMI of 50.1% [3][14]. Group 3: Expectations and Comprehensive Output - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1% in September, reflecting increased confidence among businesses, particularly in sectors like food processing and automotive [3][14]. - The comprehensive PMI output index for September is 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities across sectors [3][14].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, an increase from the previous value of 49.4%[2] - The production index within the PMI rose to 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from 50.8%[4] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5%[10] Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing PMI reached 51.9%, significantly better than the previous 50.5%[4] - The consumer goods PMI improved to 50.6%, compared to 49.2% previously[4] - The construction industry PMI is at 49.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from last month but lower than last year's 50.7%[3] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index fell to 48.2%, down from 49.1%, marking 16 consecutive months below the boom-bust line[11] - The main raw materials purchase price index is at 53.2%, slightly down from 53.3%[11] - The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, up from 53.7%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in production activities[10]

Profit Growth Analysis - In August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises was 0.9%, a significant recovery of 2.6 percentage points from July 2025's -1.7%[1] - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises in August 2025 was 2.3%, unchanged from July 2025[1] - The year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in August 2025 was 20.4%, a substantial increase from the previous month's -1.5%[1] Contributing Factors - The profit growth shift from negative to positive was primarily supported by a low base effect from the previous year[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a cumulative year-on-year decline of -2.9%, while the cumulative year-on-year industrial added value growth rate was 6.2%[1] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.58 yuan, an increase of 0.19 yuan year-on-year, indicating rising costs[1] Industry Performance - The upstream mining sector continued to be the largest drag on overall industry profits, with most sectors experiencing negative profit growth except for non-ferrous metal mining[1] - The profit growth rate for the raw materials manufacturing sector improved significantly, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.1%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[1] - The equipment manufacturing sector recorded a cumulative profit growth rate of 7.2%, also contributing 2.5 percentage points to overall profit growth[1] Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to continue rising in the coming month due to an extremely low base of -27.1% from the previous year[1] - Ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to support price improvements in various industries, particularly in raw materials manufacturing[1] - However, downstream demand remains insufficient, and the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream may face obstacles, necessitating policy support for demand recovery[1]

Price Index Insights - In July, the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index were 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The main raw material purchase price index returned above the threshold for the first time in five months, indicating a strong response from enterprises to price expectations under the "anti-involution" policy[8] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry had the highest factory price index at 88.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 80.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 74.5 percentage points[14] PMI Performance by Sector - The comprehensive PMI for "anti-involution" industries recorded 48% in July, up from 47.8% in the previous month, but still below the critical point[21] - Non-"anti-involution" industries maintained a PMI of 50.1%, down from 50.9%, indicating continued expansion[21] - Different enterprise sizes showed varied performance, with large, medium, and small enterprises' PMI at 50.3%, 49.5%, and 46.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline for large and small enterprises while medium enterprises improved[25] Policy and Seasonal Effects - The July Politburo meeting calibrated market expectations for the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting that the manufacturing PMI may remain below the threshold in August[26] - Extreme weather conditions, including record rainfall in Hebei and Inner Mongolia, are expected to further impact production in July and August, leading to a weaker PMI outlook[39] - The "anti-involution" policy's first month showed a divergence in PMI across sectors and enterprise types, influenced by both policy and seasonal effects[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[45] - Measurement errors in PMI indicators related to "anti-involution" industries may arise due to incomplete industry self-regulation[45]

Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold of 50[1] - The production and demand indices have risen into the expansion zone, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing activity[5] - The purchasing volume index showed the largest month-on-month improvement, followed by finished goods inventory and price indices[5] - The new orders index rose to 50.2, up by 0.4 from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased to 47.7, up by 0.2[10] - The price index remains at historical lows, which continues to squeeze future profit margins for companies[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with the service sector at 50.1 and the construction sector at 52.8, indicating mixed performance across sectors[12] - The service sector PMI saw a slight decline due to seasonal adjustments post-holiday, but is expected to rebound with the upcoming summer consumption peak[12] - The construction sector PMI showed a recovery, with the business activity index for housing construction rising above 51%, signaling positive changes in housing activity[13] - The investment in construction remains low year-on-year, primarily due to insufficient real estate investment demand[13]