日度报告——综合晨报 美国 8 月消费者信心指数小幅回落至 97.4 特朗普持续施压美联储，降息预期继续支撑市场偏好，三大股 指低开高走，小幅收涨。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中国将深入实施"人工智能+"行动 综 A 股市场情绪小幅降温，成交额缩量 4000 亿，高位股遭遇调整。 从股市自身结构看，估值偏贵、随时都可调整是我们的一贯判 断，但从情绪和资金面看，行情仍存上冲动能。 合 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 中国将深入实施"人工智能+"行动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-27 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 晨 美国原则上同意对印尼棕榈油、可可和橡胶豁免 19%关税 报 油脂市场弱势回调，等待市场后续指引 有色金属（多晶硅） 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 吕梁市场冶金焦价格偏强运行 盘面短期仍有调整压力，但需求高位稳定，因此调整后下方支 撑较强。 通威上半年多晶硅销售 16.13 万吨 单边仍以回调看涨思路对待，套利从盈亏比角度看可在-2000 元/ 吨左右重新关注 11-12 反套机会。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 （黑色金属） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] ...

首席点评：促消费进行时 上海出台楼市新政"组合拳"：符合条件的家庭外环外购房不限套数，成年单 身按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策；绿色建筑公积金贷款额度上浮 15%，公积 金落实"又提又贷"政策；房贷利率层面则不再区分首套和二套房；房产税征 收层面也迎来微调，本地和外地户籍政策口径更为一致。 重点品种：股指、原油、铜 股指：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指继续大幅上涨，通信和有色板块领涨， 市场成交额 3.18 万亿元。资金方面，8 月 22 日融资余额增加 81.74 亿元至 21401.26 亿元。2025 年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗口期， 下半年为提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓和，中 美关税暂停继续延长 90 天，美联储 9 月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产吸 引力。当前市场处于"政策底+资金底+估值底"共振期，行情延续概率较高，但 需适应板块轮动加速与结构分化。科技成长成分居多的中证 500 和中证 1000 指 数更偏进攻，波动较大，但可能可以带来更高的回报，而红利蓝筹成分居多的上 证 50 和沪深 300 则更偏防御，波动较小，但是价格弹性可能相对较弱。 ...

辽宁省委副书记、大连市委书记熊茂平表示，要千方百计降低物流成本，进一步提升大连东北亚国际航 运中心、国际物流中心能级，助力"两先区"高质量发展提质升级。 (责任编辑：王擎宇) 政府部门提升服务效能优化营商环境。大连海关所属金普海关通过简化保税物流账册管理，优化在途货 物监管流程，促进保税物流与仓储效能提升。大连自贸片区税务局激活"税路通·连世界"品牌效能，护 航物流企业"走出去"。 金融机构加大资金支持护航企业发展。农行大连分行支持大连口岸港区业务发展，累计注入信贷资金近 200亿元；交行大连分行深耕区域冷链物流升级项目，精准对接企业需求；建行大连分行聚焦物流、航 运，运用线上信用贷款"以数据赋能普惠"，破解"首贷难"问题；兴业银行大连分行聚焦船舶产业链全周 期需求，为区域船舶行业核心企业及上下游客户提供金融支持；浦发银行大连分行通过海关关税保函等 为中小企业提供金融支持。 今年以来，辽宁省大连市持续完善港航物流基础设施，全力推动东北亚国际航运中心和国际物流中心建 设。上半年，港口经营许可泊位达236个，万吨级以上深水泊位131个。海港新开外贸集装箱航线4条， 航线总数达106条，连通160个国家和地区300 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth and development of the Yangshan Special Comprehensive Bonded Zone since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual growth rate of 6% in import and export volume [5][6] - The total investment in key projects related to cutting-edge technology has exceeded 730 billion yuan, indicating strong investment interest in the region [7] - The offshore trade scale is projected to reach 11 billion USD by 2024, reflecting a substantial increase from previous years [17] Group 1: Economic Growth Metrics - The cumulative value of bonded maintenance imports and exports is expected to reach 16.715 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 180% [8] - From 2019 to 2024, the average annual growth in fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector is noted [10] - The total output value of four key frontier industries, including integrated circuits and biomedicine, is projected to grow annually until 2024 [11] Group 2: Investment and Financial Developments - The cumulative registered international vessels under the "China Yangshan Port" international ship registry has been increasing [14] - The number of foreign direct investment projects has seen a significant increase, with a cumulative investment amount of 7.022 billion USD [19] - By 2024, the number of listed companies both domestically and internationally is expected to rise significantly from 9 in 2020 [27][28] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The number of licenses issued for intelligent connected vehicles has reached 47.5, with a total testing mileage of approximately 18 million kilometers [31][33] - The issuance of licenses for driverless intelligent connected vehicles has also been notable, with 41 licenses granted [32]

Core Viewpoint - The "White Paper" outlines the achievements and strategies of the Nansha development plan, emphasizing the completion of the first phase goals by 2025 and the importance of Nansha as a strategic platform for cooperation between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau [1][11]. Summary by Sections Overview of the White Paper - The White Paper consists of a main text and four attachments, summarizing the experiences and results of Nansha's development as a strategic platform over the past three years [3]. Strategic Positioning - Nansha focuses on leveraging its advantages within the Greater Bay Area, enhancing economic integration, and fostering cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau [2][4]. Implementation Mechanism - The provincial, municipal, and district levels have established a collaborative decision-making and operational mechanism to support the Nansha development plan, including a leadership group and a dedicated working committee [6][9]. Key Achievements - Significant results have been achieved in various sectors, including technology innovation, youth entrepreneurship, international cooperation, and regulatory alignment [12][14][15]. Economic Impact - Nansha's GDP is projected to reach 230.13 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% in the first half of 2025. The region's strategic emerging industries now account for 37.8% of GDP [18]. Future Goals - The next phase aims to enhance Nansha's role as a key hub for international shipping, finance, and technology innovation, while continuing to deepen cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The "White Paper" outlines the achievements and strategies of Nansha in enhancing cooperation between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau, aiming to establish Nansha as a significant strategic platform for global engagement and regional integration [1][3]. Summary by Sections Overview of the White Paper - The White Paper consists of a main text and four attachments, summarizing the experiences and results of Nansha's development over the past three years [3]. Strategic Positioning - Nansha is positioned as a strategic platform that leverages its geographical advantages and integrates with the Greater Bay Area's economic development [2][3]. Cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau - Nansha serves as a "super connector" for Hong Kong and a "precise connector" for Macau, focusing on infrastructure connectivity and collaborative innovation in key sectors [4][5]. Implementation Mechanisms - A unified decision-making and operational framework has been established, involving a leadership group and a dedicated office to ensure effective coordination among provincial, municipal, and district levels [6][7][9]. Achievements in Development - Significant milestones have been reached, including the establishment of a technology innovation base, with 19 joint projects initiated and major platforms constructed [12][13]. - The creation of youth entrepreneurship platforms has led to the incubation of 2,336 projects, generating an annual output value of 3 billion yuan [13]. International Engagement - Nansha has developed a comprehensive service base for outbound investments, assisting over 600 companies with policy consultations and facilitating numerous investment projects [14]. - The Nansha Port has become a major logistics hub, with a projected container throughput of 20.49 million TEUs in 2024, enhancing its international shipping capabilities [14]. Social and Educational Integration - Policies have been implemented to support Hong Kong and Macau residents, including exemptions from certain insurance fees and the establishment of a comprehensive education system [15]. Urban Development and Quality of Life - The urban planning for Nansha has been approved, focusing on high-quality development and improved urban infrastructure, with significant investments in transportation and public services [16]. Future Goals - The next phase aims to further enhance Nansha's role in the Greater Bay Area and strengthen its international cooperation, with a focus on innovation and comprehensive service capabilities [20].

特朗普政府推行的全面贸易保护主义议程，将美国对外国商品的关税推至二战以来的最高水平。 根据耶鲁大学预算实验室的最新测算，如考虑截至7月31日实施的所有美国关税、外国对等反制措施的 影响以及将于8月7日生效的所谓"对等关税"，特朗普政府宣布的一系列关税壁垒会使美国平均关税税率 达到17.3%，为1935年以来最高水平。 彭博行业研究的计算也显示，如果新关税如宣布的那样在7天内生效，并且美国与欧盟、日本和韩国的 汽车税协议得以维持，美国平均关税税率将从现在的13.3%上升到15.2%。 8月1日外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会表示，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，搞保护主义损害各方利 益。 多位接受第一财经记者采访的专家均表示，目前特朗普政府出台的所谓"对等关税"违背世贸组织 （WTO）规则。根据WTO最惠国待遇原则，各成员不能歧视其贸易伙伴。 对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎索邦大学博士生导师赵永升对第一财经记者表示，应当 意识到这恐怕不是偶然现象，特朗普关税政策代表的是美国当前在贸易关系方面的思潮和趋势，即对于 二战后80余年以来多边主义的不满，而在贸易关系中转而构建双边或诸边关系。 来源：新华社 大规模提 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes that the trade war and tariff increases initiated by the Trump administration are detrimental to all parties involved, with no winners in a protectionist environment [1][10] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest level since 1935, due to the implementation of various tariffs and retaliatory measures [1][4] - Experts indicate that the current tariff policies violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, particularly the most-favored-nation principle, which prohibits discrimination among trading partners [1][10] Group 2 - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs will lead to a 1.8% increase in price levels by 2025, resulting in an average loss of $2,400 per household [7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer goods is significant, with projected price increases of 40% for shoes and 38% for clothing in the short term [7] - The tariffs are expected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, with a long-term economic contraction of 0.4% [8] Group 3 - The tariffs are anticipated to increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025, with a total job loss of approximately 497,000 positions [8] - The manufacturing sector may see a 2.1% increase in output due to tariffs, but this growth will be offset by declines in other sectors such as construction and agriculture [8] - The global trade system may undergo significant restructuring due to the U.S. tariffs, with potential demand shocks affecting economies worldwide [10][11] Group 4 - Recent data from the WTO indicates a 3.6% increase in global goods trade volume in Q1 2025, driven by anticipations of U.S. tariff hikes, although growth is expected to slow later in the year [11] - The World Bank forecasts a significant reduction in trade growth for developed economies, with projections for 2025 being halved compared to earlier estimates [11] - The U.S. experienced a 25% increase in imports in Q1 2025, but growth slowed to just 1% in the following months, highlighting the volatility in trade dynamics [11]

Core Viewpoint - Danzhou Yangpu has achieved significant success in attracting foreign investment in the first half of this year, with actual foreign investment reaching 2.595 billion yuan, a 16% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Performance - Actual foreign investment in Danzhou Yangpu reached 2.595 billion yuan, marking a 16% year-on-year growth [1] - The region has effectively utilized policy advantages since the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port construction [1] Group 2: Policy Advantages - Danzhou Yangpu benefits from the Free Trade Port's "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax system" [1] - Unique policies such as "processing with value-added duty exemption" and "China Yangpu Port" as a registered port have created a competitive investment environment [1] Group 3: Industry Focus - The region focuses on key industries such as petrochemical new materials, shipping logistics, and international trade [1] - Efforts to improve industrial chain layout and conduct targeted investment promotion have led to an industrial agglomeration effect [1]

Core Insights - Danzhou Yangpu achieved significant success in attracting foreign investment, with actual utilized foreign capital reaching 2.595 billion yuan, representing a 16% increase compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Performance - The actual utilized foreign capital in Danzhou Yangpu for the first half of the year was 2.595 billion yuan, marking a 16% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The region has effectively leveraged policy advantages since the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, positioning itself as a core development area [2]. Group 2: Policy and Development Strategies - Danzhou Yangpu has utilized the "zero tariff, low tax rate, and simplified tax system" policies to create a competitive investment environment [2]. - The area has focused on key industries such as petrochemical new materials, shipping logistics, and international trade, enhancing its industrial chain layout and conducting targeted investment promotion [2].