期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月15日 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 从业资格证号： F3063825 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月15日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 11月消费投资低于预期 摘要 11月固定资产投资增速和社零增长均低于市场预期。11出口增速 超市场预期。11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长低于市场预期， 11月服务业生产指数同比增速较10月回落0.4个百分点。11月国内房 地产销量同比和房价继续下行，12月上旬的数据也表现如此。截至今 年10月底，5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部完成投放，11月的 投资数据未表现出明显改观。中美在10月末元首会晤之后，不断拉长 合作清单、压缩问题清单，相对稳定的国际环境有利于中国出口。出 口信心稳定则有利民间投资增长。 1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，市场预期下降2.2 %，1-10月份为同比下降1.7%。分类来看，1-11月份广义基建投 ...

德国10月工厂订单激增，支持欧洲最大经济体在今年最后一个季度或能勉力实现增长的前景。 德国联邦统计局周五公布，当月需求环比增长1.5%，9月数据被大幅上修为增长2%。这一增幅远高于调 查所得的预估中值0.3%。 统计局表示，改善主要得益于大额订单的推动，尤其是包括飞机、船舶、火车和军用车辆在内的运输类 别订单增长了87%。 推荐阅读：德国经济"自由落体" 总理默茨执政联盟深陷生存危机 工业部门的复苏被视为战胜经济疲软的关键，2023年和2024年德国国内生产总值（GDP）均出现萎缩。 德国面临的困境源于美国加征关税、竞争加剧以及长期存在的官僚主义等深层次问题。 统计局表示，改善主要得益于大额订单的推动，尤其是包括飞机、船舶、火车和军用车辆在内的运输类 别订单增长了87%。 工业部门的复苏被视为战胜经济疲软的关键，2023年和2024年德国国内生产总值（GDP）均出现萎缩。 德国面临的困境源于美国加征关税、竞争加剧以及长期存在的官僚主义等深层次问题。 推荐阅读：德国经济"自由落体" 总理默茨执政联盟深陷生存危机 责任编辑：刘明亮 责任编辑：刘明亮 德国10月工厂订单激增，支持欧洲最大经济体在今年最后一个季度或能 ...

以供应管理协会（ISM）11月发布的工厂状况调查为例，受访者普遍表达了深切忧虑。一位来自运输设 备制造行业的高管在报告中指出："受关税环境影响，我们正着手实施更为持久的变革，包括削减员工 规模、向股东更新业绩指引，以及拓展海外制造业务。" 今日周三（12月3日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于950附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂960.76元/克， 涨幅0.13%，最高触及962.18元/克，最低下探948.18元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 根据企业高管与经济预测专家的最新表态，特朗普政府推行的关税政策，旨在促使海外制造业岗位回流 美国，然而这一举措最终或适得其反，导致国内就业岗位减少。 当前，美国劳动力市场已显露疲态，呈现出"不裁员、不增聘"的僵持状态。社会各界日益担忧，针对进 口商品征收的关税将推高企业经营成本，进而迫使企业采取裁员措施以应对压力。 此外，多项迹象表明，至2026年，美国劳动力市场的前景或将更加严峻。经济合作与发展组织 （OECD），拥有38个成员国，于周二发布报告称，尽管关税尚未对全球经济造成剧烈冲击，但全面影 响或许尚未完全显现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, CIMC Group, announced a share buyback plan involving significant financial commitments for both its Hong Kong and A-share listings [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - On November 28, 2025, the company will spend HKD 16.0263 million to repurchase 1.9847 million shares at a price range of HKD 7.99 to 8.11 per share [1] - On the same date, the company will also invest CNY 25.9999 million to buy back 2.8727 million A-shares at a price range of CNY 9.00 to 9.09 per share [1]

Economic Overview - Jiangsu Province's economy has shown overall stability and progress from January to October, with steady growth in industrial and consumption sectors [1] - The province has focused on maintaining employment, supporting enterprises, stabilizing markets, and managing expectations, leading to effective implementation of macroeconomic policies [1] Industrial Performance - From January to October, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a 5.8% increase in October alone [1] - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and digital core product manufacturing grew by 8.0%, 11.7%, and 9.4% respectively [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors saw a significant growth of 12.3%, while the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors grew by 18.1% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,816.8 billion yuan from January to October, marking a 4.0% year-on-year increase [1] - In October, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as computers and related products, surged by 7.4% and 48% respectively [1] - The wholesale and retail sales of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.1% and 7.6% year-on-year, while the accommodation and catering industry saw increases of 2.7% and 5.1% respectively [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the province decreased by 8.7% year-on-year from January to October, with infrastructure investment down by 2.2% [2] - Notably, investment in the electricity and heat production and supply industry, as well as in loading, unloading, and warehousing, grew by 22.9% and 27.2% respectively [2] - Manufacturing investment declined by 4.1%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous nine months, while real estate development investment fell by 19.8% [2] Financial Sector - As of the end of October, the balance of RMB deposits in financial institutions reached 26.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [2] - The balance of RMB loans stood at 28.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (Wabtec) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with both earnings and revenues exceeding estimates and showing year-over-year growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings per share reached $2.32, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.23, marking a 16% year-over-year increase due to higher sales, operating margin expansion, and share repurchase benefits [3]. - Revenues totaled $2.88 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.86 billion, reflecting an 8.4% year-over-year growth driven by the Freight and Transit segments [3]. Segment Performance - The Freight segment reported net sales of $2.09 billion, an 8.4% increase year-over-year, supported by a 32% rise in Equipment sales and a 45.6% increase in Digital sales due to the acquisition of Inspection Technologies [4]. - The Transit segment's net sales grew 8.2% year-over-year to $793 million, bolstered by strong aftermarket and original equipment sales [5]. Operating Expenses and Financial Position - Total operating expenses rose by $64 million year-over-year to $511 million, with the operating ratio increasing to 17.7% from 16.8% [6]. - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $528 million, down from $1.49 billion in the previous quarter, while long-term debt increased to $5.03 billion from $4.78 billion [6]. Dividend and Guidance - Wabtec paid $43 million in dividends during the reported quarter [7]. - The company raised its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $8.85 to $9.05, with revenues expected between $10.925 billion and $11.225 billion [8]. Market Sentiment and Estimates - Recent estimates for Wabtec have trended upward, indicating positive market sentiment [9]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the number of enterprises in the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors, which increased by 416 to a total of 6497 enterprises from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.84% [1] - The proportion of these enterprises in the total industrial enterprises stands at 1.24% [1] - The data indicates a significant increase in the scale of industrial enterprises, with the threshold for classification raised from an annual main business income of 5 million to 20 million yuan since 2011 [1] Group 2 - The report referenced is the "2025-2031 China Transportation Equipment Industry Market Competition Situation and Development Prospects" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions through professional insights and market sensitivity [1]

Core Viewpoint - China International Marine Containers (Group) Co., Ltd. is actively engaging with investors and managing its share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value and maintain market confidence [2][4]. Trading Information Summary - On November 11, 2025, the stock price of China International Marine Containers closed at 8.02 RMB, down 0.25%, with a turnover rate of 0.92%, a trading volume of 211,100 shares, and a transaction value of 169 million RMB [1]. - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 3.25 million RMB, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 7.93 million RMB [5]. Company Announcements Summary - China International Marine Containers will participate in the 2025 Shenzhen-listed companies investor online reception day on November 20, 2025, to discuss company performance, governance, development strategy, and sustainability with investors [2][5]. - On November 11, 2025, the company repurchased 2,000,000 H-shares at an average price of 7.1254 HKD, totaling 14,250,893 HKD, and 1,549,000 A-shares at an average price of 8.03 RMB, totaling 12,444,342 RMB [4][5].

Core Insights - CIMC Group has been actively repurchasing its shares, with a total of 54,330 shares bought back on November 5 at prices ranging from HKD 6.950 to HKD 7.060, amounting to HKD 3.8154 million [2] - The stock closed at HKD 7.080 on the same day, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14%, with a total trading volume of HKD 11.6583 million [2] - Since October 31, the company has conducted share buybacks for four consecutive days, totaling 3,007,600 shares and an aggregate repurchase amount of HKD 21.297 million, during which the stock price has decreased by 4.07% [2] Buyback Summary - Year-to-date, CIMC Group has executed 49 share buybacks, totaling 60,231,500 shares and an overall repurchase amount of HKD 465 million [3] - Detailed buyback transactions include: - November 5: 54.33 million shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.060 and a minimum price of HKD 6.950, totaling HKD 381.54 million [3] - November 4: 85.69 million shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.190 and a minimum price of HKD 6.990, totaling HKD 606.05 million [3] - November 3: 37.53 million shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.170 and a minimum price of HKD 7.030, totaling HKD 267.63 million [3] - October 31: 123.21 million shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.170 and a minimum price of HKD 7.000, totaling HKD 874.48 million [3]

Economic Performance - Xi'an's GDP for the first three quarters reached 964.19 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The primary industry added value was 18.44 billion, growing by 2.9%; the secondary industry added value was 256.12 billion, growing by 5.7%; the tertiary industry added value was 689.64 billion, growing by 4.9% [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial output value above designated size in Xi'an increased by 9% year-on-year [1] - Key industries showed significant growth: electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 39.1%, automotive manufacturing by 28%, and specialized equipment manufacturing by 9.2% [1] - Major industrial enterprises with over 10 billion in scale saw a total output value growth of 15.7% [1] Product Output - New quality productivity products experienced rapid growth: mobile communication base station equipment increased by 357%, 3D printing equipment by 135.7%, civilian drones by 50.7%, charging piles by 48.4%, and urban rail vehicles by 26.1% [1] Consumer Market - Xi'an's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 415.17 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The "old for new" policy significantly impacted sales, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 44% [2] - Online retail also grew rapidly, with retail sales through public networks increasing by 19.4%, accounting for 36% of total retail sales, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous year [2] Trade Performance - Xi'an's total import and export value reached 354.93 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [2] - Exports totaled 246.74 billion, growing by 20.1%, while imports totaled 108.19 billion, growing by 8.4% [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 190.74 billion, growing by 5.2%, and trade with ASEAN and EU grew by 25.0% and 58.3%, respectively [2]