生意社01月05日讯 | 品种/规格 | 报价市场/地区 | 报价 | 均价 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1#钴 | 广东南储现货 | 445000-465000 | 455000 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 1#钴 | 上海金属网 | 456000-466000 | 461000 | -9500 | 元/吨 | | 电解钴(99.8%) | 上海华通现货 | 453000-463000 | 458000 | 2000 | 元/吨 | | 钴(250kg/桶装99.95%) | 国产/赞比亚 | 458000-465000 | 461500 | -4500 | 元/吨 | | 钴粉(-200目，国产) | 上海地区 | 500000-520000 | 510000 | 2500 | 元/吨 | | 电解钴 | 上海金藏(国产交割) | 463000-460000 | 460000 | -3000 | 元/吨 | 1月5日国内金属钴报价445000-466000元/吨，报价震荡盘整，钴市行情盘整，三元电池产量、装车量销 量缓慢增长，钴市 ...

Industry and Company Analysis Summary Industry Overview - The lithium, cobalt, and nickel sectors are expected to see price increases in Q1 2026, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [10][11] - Despite concerns regarding the demand for new energy vehicles in 2026, an overall growth rate of 15%-20% is anticipated, with a positive outlook for the energy storage market [1][2] Key Points on Lithium Market - Recent lithium carbonate prices have surged, exceeding 120,000 yuan per ton, primarily due to stable demand and production delays from major companies like CATL [2] - Current lithium carbonate supply is nearly at full capacity, limiting production flexibility. Even with price increases, significant new capacity is not expected in the short term [3][4] - Companies with substantial investment potential in the lithium sector include Guocheng Mining, Dazhong Mining, Tianhua Xinneng, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, all of which have considerable growth prospects [5] Nickel Market Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association has announced a planned 34% reduction in RKA approvals for 2026, which could shift the nickel market from surplus to a tight balance if strictly enforced [6][7] - The nickel market is currently influenced by potential policy changes from the Indonesian government, with significant implications for supply and demand dynamics [7][8] Cobalt Market Analysis - The cobalt market is currently in a state of information vacuum, with delays in cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) leading to increased domestic inventory consumption [9] - In November, China imported approximately 4,900 tons of cobalt intermediate products, with a significant monthly demand leading to a reduction in inventory levels [9] - A rapid increase in cobalt prices is expected in Q1 2026 due to panic buying as inventory levels are depleted [9][10] Additional Considerations - The overall supply chain is becoming more closed, with heightened security concerns regarding resource availability, making commodity prices more resistant to declines [11] - Companies like Huayou, Likin, Greeenmei, Zhongwei, and Weiming Environmental are noted for their bottom-fishing value, even in a declining price environment [8]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605376 | 博迁新材 | 64.52 | -1.42% | 7.92万 | 5.08亿 | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | 79.77 | -0.15% | 14.84万 | 11.84亿 | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 65.82 | 0.32% | 82.13万 | 54.20 Z | | 300618 | 塞锐钻业 | 44.79 | 1.04% | 11.37万 | 5.08亿 | | 000762 | 西藏矿业 | 26.92 | 1.09% | 26.31万 | 7.08亿 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂V | 66.36 | 1.67% | 69.50万 | 45.96亿 | | 6633399 | 永杉锂业 | 10.93 | 2.15% | 21.63万 | 2.35亿 | | 301219 | 腾远钻业 | 66.19 | 2.38% | 7.77万 | 5.13亿 | | 002192 | 融捷股份 | 5 ...

【今日头条】 美联储如期降息25基点 但内部分歧加剧 美联储宣布了今年的连续第三次利率下调，但仍维持2026年仅一次降息的展望，显示决策层对未来政策 路径的分歧日益突出。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)以9比3的投票结果批准将联邦基金利率下调25个基 点至3.5%-3.75%区间，并在声明中微调措辞，暗示对未来降息时点的判断存在更大不确定性。 与此同时，美联储宣布了一项关键的流动性管理措施。自12月12日起，每月购买400亿美元国库券，以 重建在缩表期间大幅下滑的银行体系准备金。声明指出，随着此前缩减资产负债表(QT)的推进，准备金 已下降至"充裕水平的下限"，因此需要通过购买短期美债在未来"持续维持充裕的准备金供给"。 【大势展望】 国际银价续创历史新高 隔夜美股道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨497.46点，收于48057.75点，涨幅为1.05%;标准普尔500 种股票指数上涨46.17点，收于6886.68点，涨幅为0.67%;纳斯达克综合指数上涨77.67点，收于23654.16 点，涨幅为0.33%。大型科技股多数上涨，高通涨超3%，特斯拉、亚马逊、博通、谷歌涨超1%。 储 能概念股、基建股涨幅居 ...

通知称，新条件规定矿企需要在48小时内预缴纳10%的权利金并需要获得合规证书，当然还要满足其他 条件。 10月，刚果（金）以配额制度取代了长达数月的出口禁令，目的是增加国家收入，并加强对产量占全球 70%以上的动力电池关键原材料钴的行业监管。 路透社此前报道称，自禁令解除以来，由于生产商等待政策明朗并严守规定而没有出口任何产品。 刚果（金）矿业部和财政部11月26日联合下发的通知规定了出口商的办理流程，包括强制性的配额核 查、联合取样、批量称重和包装，战略矿产市场管控局（Authority for the Regulation & Control of Strategic Mineral Substances' Markets，ARECOMS）颁发新的配额核查证书（Quota Verification Certificate，AVQ）。 据Mining.com网站援引路透社报道，刚果（金）政府通知，为进一步加强对钴的控制，已经为这种关键 电池矿产出口商设定新的条件，这可能使得最新采取的配额制度更趋复杂化。 钴出口面临不确定性 刚果（金）为2025年第四季度设定了18125吨的钴出口配额，2026年起计划每年出 ...

证券之星消息，12月8日能源金属板块较上一交易日上涨2.94%，赣锋锂业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3924.08，上涨0.54%。深证成指报收于13329.99，上涨1.39%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 3.67 Z | 8.50% | -1.19 Z | -2.76% | -2.48 Z- | -5.74% | | 002240 | 盛新锂能 | 1.78亿 | 9.59% | 573.93万 | 0.31% | -1.84 Z | -9.90% | | 002466 天齐锂业 | | 1.50 Z | 4.45% | 9745.84万 | 2.89% | -2.47 Z- | -7.34% | | 002192 融捷股份 | | 1.17 Z | 13.46% | 3848.65万 | 4.44% | -1.55 Z | -17. ...

Core Insights - The cobalt business of Pengxin Resources reported significant growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with sales revenue of cobalt hydroxide reaching 245 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 897.59%, which was a key driver for the company's turnaround [1] - The surge in cobalt sales is attributed to the essential role of cobalt in the new energy sector and the company's strong resource reserves and cost control [1] - The rebound in cobalt prices due to the recovery in new energy demand in 2025, along with a reversal of inventory impairment of 225 million yuan, directly activated the performance elasticity of the cobalt business [1] Resource Reserves - Pengxin Resources controls over 200,000 tons of cobalt resources globally, with a potential reserve of 100,000 tons in the Congo (Kinshasa) 1078 block and an equity reserve of 10,600 tons from the Australian Clean TeQ project, leading the industry in scale [1] - The Congo (Kinshasa) base has established a cobalt hydroxide production line with a designed capacity of 3,000 tons per year, with plans to expand to 7,000 tons per year in the second phase, indicating clear future growth potential [1] Cost Management - The company has built a competitive barrier through low-cost operations, with a complete cost of cobalt products at approximately 3,200 USD per ton, which is 15 percentile points below the global cost curve and 20% lower than peers like Huayou Cobalt [2] - A partnership with the local government to establish a cobalt ore trading center is expected to yield 15%-20% of export quotas in 2025, giving the company a competitive edge under the quota system in Congo (Kinshasa) [2] Future Prospects - With the Clean TeQ project in Australia expected to commence production in 2025, adding 2,000 tons per year of cobalt capacity, and the continuous expansion of the new energy industry demand, Pengxin Resources' cobalt business is poised to further unleash performance potential [2] - The cobalt business is expected to become a crucial support for the company's strategic focus on "gold + copper + cobalt" [2]

Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate prices have shown an upward trend this week, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 73,500-74,500 CNY/ton, averaging 74,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 650 CNY/ton from the previous working day [2] - The overall sentiment in the lithium market is better than before, with tight supply of spot lithium ore and frequent inquiries from downstream lithium salt manufacturers for raw material reserves [1][2] Cobalt Market - Electrolytic cobalt prices have rapidly increased, driven by tight raw material inventories at smelting enterprises and a shift in trade quotes from premium to parity or slight discounts [4] - Cobalt intermediate prices remain strong, with a slight increase in imports, but actual transactions are still limited due to strong pricing from upstream suppliers [5] - Cobalt salt prices, including cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride, have stabilized, with cobalt sulfate prices around 91,000-93,000 CNY/ton, while cobalt chloride prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints [6][7][14] Nickel Market - Battery-grade nickel sulfate prices remain stable, with the index price at 28,421 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight and demand from downstream manufacturers increases [8] - The overall nickel salt supply is expected to remain tight, with potential for price increases in the future [8] Precursor and Material Market - The price of ternary precursors continues to rise, supported by tight supply of nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate, while some smaller precursor manufacturers have suspended quotes due to procurement difficulties [9][10] - Ternary materials prices are also on the rise, driven by increasing costs of raw materials, with demand from the domestic power market remaining strong [10] Iron Phosphate Market - Iron phosphate prices are stable with strong demand from the energy storage and power sectors, leading to upward pressure on prices [13] - The overall demand for iron phosphate is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in October [11][13] Separator Market - The separator market is experiencing structural price increases, particularly for wet separators, due to high demand in the energy storage market and limited new capacity [17] - Major separator manufacturers are nearing full capacity, leading to a tight supply situation [17] Electrolyte Market - Electrolyte prices are stable, but cost pressures are increasing due to rising prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and other additives [18] - Demand for electrolytes is expected to rise as projects in the pure electric heavy truck sector continue to progress [18] Sodium Battery Market - The sodium battery industry is focusing on balancing mass production with technology optimization and cost control, with expectations for moderate recovery in October [20] Recycling Market - Prices for cobalt and nickel salts are rising, while lithium carbonate prices have slightly decreased, leading to mixed market conditions for recycled materials [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) on the global cobalt supply chain, particularly in light of recent export restrictions and quota management policies aimed at stabilizing cobalt prices amid a supply surplus and declining demand growth [2][9][18]. Group 1: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt supplier globally, accounting for 75.86% of the world's production, and its policy changes are reshaping the global energy landscape [2][12]. - In February 2023, the DRC government imposed a four-month cobalt export ban due to plummeting prices, marking a significant intervention in the cobalt market [2][9]. - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Regulatory Bureau announced an end to the export ban on October 16, 2023, implementing an annual export quota system to manage supply [3][4]. Group 2: Export Quota Details - For the remainder of 2025, the DRC's export limit is set at 18,125 tons, with monthly allocations of 3,625 tons in October, 7,250 tons in November, and 7,250 tons in December [3][4]. - The annual quota for 2026-2027 is fixed at 96,600 tons, with 87,000 tons designated as "basic quota" and 9,600 tons as "strategic quota" for key national projects [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Cobalt Prices - Following the DRC's export restrictions, cobalt prices surged, with increases of 185% for cobalt intermediates, 107% for MB cobalt, and 123% for metallic cobalt from February 24 to October 9, 2023 [8][9]. - The DRC's policies aim to reduce global inventory levels to a month's demand, as prolonged supply surpluses have led to a 60% price drop from 2022 highs, severely impacting the DRC's revenue [8][12]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Trends - Global cobalt production is projected to increase by 21.8% in 2024, reaching 290,000 tons, with the DRC's output expected to grow by 25.7% to 220,000 tons [12][14]. - However, demand growth is slowing, with a projected 14% increase in global cobalt consumption in 2024, primarily driven by electric vehicles and consumer electronics [14][15]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The DRC's control over cobalt supply is a response to international market fluctuations and domestic economic pressures, emphasizing the need for resource-rich countries to assert pricing power [8][18]. - The ongoing competition for cobalt resources reflects broader geopolitical tensions and the strategic importance of securing supply chains for green energy technologies [18][37]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The DRC's new quota policy is expected to tighten the cobalt supply balance, potentially leading to a structural adjustment in the global cobalt supply chain [36][38]. - The increasing reliance on cobalt recycling and alternative sources, such as Indonesian nickel-cobalt projects, is seen as a critical strategy for mitigating supply risks [54][41].

Group 1: Dairy Industry Insights - The report indicates that despite short-term support for milk prices due to holiday consumption, the trend of capacity reduction in dairy companies continues, and the peak of milk prices is expected to be reached soon [3] - The report highlights a significant decline in beef exports from the US to mainland China, which fell by 46% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, creating favorable conditions for price increases [3] - The recovery in culling cow prices is anticipated to directly improve the performance of dairy companies, with a long-term trend of narrowing losses in culling cows expected to persist [3] Group 2: Cobalt Market Analysis - The report discusses the recent quota distribution for cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a total quota of 96,600 tons, which is significantly lower than last year's export volume, indicating a potential supply shortage [23][26] - Current inventory levels are critical, with an estimated four months of inventory in the supply chain, which could lead to increased prices as demand rises [26] - The report suggests focusing on companies less affected by Congolese policies, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are expected to benefit from the recent quota announcements [27] Group 3: Automotive Sector Overview - The report covers Futec Technology as a leading supplier of high-voltage power systems for electric vehicles, with a strong customer base including major automotive brands [20][21] - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 2.996 billion, 3.608 billion, and 4.272 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [22] - The automotive power supply industry is characterized by trends towards higher voltage, integration, and diversification of functions, positioning Futec Technology favorably for future growth [21] Group 4: Construction and Steel Industry - Honglu Steel Structure reported a year-on-year increase in new orders, with a total of 22.267 billion yuan in new contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for Q4 production [10] - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profit margins due to rising steel prices, which could enhance the company's net profit per ton significantly [10] - The company has invested in advanced welding technology, which is expected to improve production efficiency and reduce costs [10]