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粤开市场日报-20251013
Yuekai Securities· 2025-10-13 07:47
2025 年 10 月 13 日 投资要点 分析师:孟之绪 执业编号:S0300524080001 电话: 邮箱:mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251013 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 今日关注 指数涨跌情况:今日 A 股主要宽基指数多数收跌。截止收盘,沪指跌 0.19%, 收报 3889.50 点;深证成指跌 0.93%,收报 13231.47 点;创业板指跌 1.11%, 收报 3078.76 点;科创 50 涨 1.40%,收报 1473.02 点。总体上全天个股涨少 跌多,Wind 数据显示,全市场 1682 只个股上涨,3628 只个股下跌,119 只个 股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 23547 亿元,较上个交易日缩量 1609 亿元。 行业涨跌情况:今日申万一级行业涨少跌多,31 个行业中仅有色金属、环保、 钢铁、国防军工、银行和计算行业上涨,涨幅分别为 3.35%、1.65%、1.49%、 0.86%、0.74%和 0.22%;汽车、家用电器、美容护理、传媒和医药生物行业领 跌,跌幅分别为 2.33%、1.74%、1.58%、1.54%、1.47%。 板 ...
美关税威胁再起,流动性冲击下铜铝价格回落 | 投研报告
锂:旺季需求下锂盐进入去库周期,锂价有望底部回升。本周碳酸锂价格持平为7.36万 元/吨,锂辉石精矿下跌2.21%至839美元/吨。本周碳酸锂期货主力合约2511下跌1.76%至7.27 万元/吨。供给端,本周碳酸锂产量2.06万吨,环比增加0.6%。SMM周度库存13.48万吨,环 比减少1.5%。我们认为当前处于锂电产业链金九银十需求旺季,下游备库需求增加,碳酸 锂进入去库周期,锂价底部具备支撑,后续有望回升。我们建议关注具备第二增长曲线的低 估值标的和仍具备锂自给率提升和降本空间标的:赣锋锂业(锂+储能+固态电池)、雅化 集团(锂+民爆)、中矿资源(锂+小金属+铜)、天齐锂业。 钴:刚果金将实施钴出口配额制,钴价有望加速上涨。本周MB钴上涨4.19%至19.90美 元/磅,国内电钴价格上涨2.87%至35.9万元/吨。9月20日,刚果(金)战略矿产市场监管局 (ARECOMS)公告,将自10月16日起解除钴出口禁令,改为实施钴出口配额制,具体配额 方案为:2025年10月16日—12月31日期间,钴出口总量上限为1.81万吨,其中10月为3625 吨,11月、12月各为7250吨;2026年与2027年 ...
智通港股早知道 | 刚果(金)钴出口配额落地 高通因涉嫌违反反垄断法被立案调查
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-12 23:14
【今日头条】 刚果(金)钴出口配额落地 10月11日,刚果金钴出口配额公布,刚果金通过配额制强化资源主权,标志着钴市场从过剩周期转向紧 缺周期,价格中枢系统性提升已成趋势。刚果战略矿产市场监管局周六在发送给媒体的声明中表示,配 额将于10月16周六生效,大致根据一家公司在截至2024年底的三年内的出口情况按比例计算。该监管机 构上个月表示,今年剩余时间内,矿商将获准出口略高于18,000吨钴,2026年和2027年每年出口量最多 为96,600吨。未来两年每年许可的出口量还不到该国去年产量的一半。其声明概述了各家公司在今年剩 余时间内可以出口多少钴,并表示12月的配额将自动续期,作为明年的月度配额。 配额全部分配给矿山及政府平台:按照月配额推算明年,洛钼获得配额3.12万吨(32.3%)符合预期,但远 高于部分机构此前的预期;盛屯(1680吨)、华友(1080吨)、紫金(1080吨)及中色矿(480吨)等均符合预 期。 机构认为,未来两年钴均有缺口:24年全球钴供给29万吨(刚果金22万吨+印尼2.8万吨),需求18.5万 吨,过剩10.5万吨;26年全球供给18万吨(刚果金9.66万吨+印尼4万吨),需求2 ...
刚果金政府发布钴出口配额的获取、分配和执行条件,继续推荐关注钴资源标的
HUAXI Securities· 2025-10-12 14:36
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has issued conditions for obtaining and distributing cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2025 [1][2] - The DRC is expected to contribute 76% of global cobalt production in 2024, with a projected reduction in export supply over the next two years [10][11] - The report highlights potential supply shortages in the cobalt market due to various companies facing operational challenges [8][10] Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The basic export quotas for cobalt in 2025 are set at 3,625 tons for October, and 7,250 tons for both November and December [2] - Quotas are allocated based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, with specific exclusions for certain companies [2][3] Company-Specific Quotas - Key companies and their basic export quotas for Q4 2025 include: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 6,650 tons - Glencore: 3,925 tons - Eurasian Resources: 2,125 tons - Gecamines: 1,475 tons [6][16] - The 2026 quotas for these companies are projected to be significantly higher, indicating a potential increase in production capacity [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply gap of approximately 25,500 tons in 2027, driven by increasing global demand for cobalt, particularly in electric vehicles [12][13] - The DRC's export supply is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 12,340 tons over the next two years [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as: - Luoyang Molybdenum, which will hold a significant share of the DRC's export quotas - Huayou Cobalt, with substantial production capacity in Indonesia - Other companies like Likin Resources and Greeenmei, which are expanding their nickel and cobalt production capabilities [15]
沪指十年后重上3900点,结构性行情能走多远?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 17:47
10月9日上午10点18分,上证指数站上3907.18点,这是自2015年8月以来,沪指首次突破3900点关口。 时隔十年,沪指再度突破3900点。这一消息在10月9日早间迅速传遍市场,投资者们的朋友圈被这一里程碑式的突破刷屏。 截至当天上午10点18分,上证指数报3905.52点,涨0.63%,深证成指与创业板指涨幅均超过1%。这一刻,市场已经等待了十年。 十年等待 开盘后不久,指数便突破3900点整数关口,截至发稿,沪指涨0.59%,报3905.52点。 其他指数方面,深证成指报13672.98点,涨1.08%,创业板指报3271.98点,涨1.04%,两市合计成交额超过1.13万亿元。 从板块来看,存储芯片、电解液、钴矿概念领涨,市场呈现结构性上涨特征。 沪指又一次逼近高位震荡箱体的上沿,不能有效突破的话,还会回落。 深指与创指在节前最后一个交易日冲高回落,未能达成金叉,日线顶背离的风险尚未真正化解。 沪指突破3900点的意义不同寻常。上一次沪指站在3900点上方,还是2015年8月的事情。 那一年,A股市场经历了大起大落,从疯牛到股灾,许多投资者的记忆都被刻上了深刻的烙印。 十年时间,中国资本市场经历 ...
有色金属接棒 护送A股征伐4000点
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-10-09 10:55
"等了好几天终于能交易了,开门红了!"10月9日,一名老股民激动地表示。 10月9日,A股节后的首个交易日,三大指数集体高开高走,截至收盘,上证指数上涨1.32%,收于3933.97点,创下2015年8月以来近十年的高点。 同日,深证成指涨1.47%,收于13725.56点,创业板指涨0.73%,收于3261.82点。深证成指、创业板指也创下2022年2月以来的新高点。全市场3115只股上 涨。 有投资者直呼坚定不移地等待下一个新高点的到来;也有投资者感叹,自己的股票还在"未盈利"状态。 2025年至今,有色金属成了A股"最靓的仔",板块涨幅为77.56%,领先于硬件设备(涨幅59.07%)、半导体(涨幅58.74%)板块。10月9日,有色金属、 硬件设备和半导体的部分热门股票再度拉升。 有色金属概念"沸腾" 其中,发电设备板块,融发核电(002366.SZ)、东方电气(600835.SH)等涨停。科技股亦走强,电脑硬件概念涨幅为2.66%;半导体概念涨幅为 2.58%,其中,灿芯股份(688691.SH)涨停,芯原股份(688521.SH)等集体涨超10%。 有色金属板块集体爆发则更吸睛。10月9日,黄金、 ...
港股午评|恒生指数早盘涨0.04% 上海电气大涨超15%
智通财经网· 2025-10-09 04:06
江西铜业股份(00358)再涨11%,公司为国内铜冶炼龙头,第一量子旗下铜矿有望复产。 洛阳钼业(03993)再涨8%,刚果严控钴出口,钴价此前两日飙升逾11%。 智通财经APP获悉,港股恒生指数涨0.04%,涨11点,报26840点;恒生科技指数涨0.63%。港股早盘成 交2074亿港元。 上海电气(02727)涨15.72%,公司A股涨停,可控核聚变赛道近期利好频出。 华虹半导体(01347)涨6.75%再创新高,供应链本土化继续加速,本土代工需求有望迅速扩大。 高铁基建股涨幅居前。铁路投资进度再破纪录,"十五五"铁路发展规划编制工作已启动。中国中铁 (00390)涨9%;中国中冶(01618)涨6%;中国中车(01766)涨4.17%。 中兴通讯(00763)AH股齐涨,Co-Sight超级智能体海外首发亮相,公司企业AI市场增长潜力积极。中兴 通讯H股涨10.73%。 蜜雪集团(02097)逆市涨8.96%,跨界投资鲜啤福鹿家,前瞻性布局"茶饮+咖啡+鲜啤"版图。 思摩尔国际(06969)再跌超9%,较年内高点已跌超30%,瑞银称其盈测较市场共识更低。 恒生银行(00011)涨26%,汇丰建议将恒生银 ...
力勤资源再涨超4% 钴价远期中枢有较强支撑 机构强调刚果金后续出口指标分配不确定性
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 02:43
分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 22.46 1.26 5.94% 6.51% 4.34% 2.17% 0.00% 2.17% 4.34% 6.51% 19.82 20.28 20.74 21.20 21.66 22.12 22.58 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 49万 98万 146万 力勤资源(02245)再涨超4%,月内股价累计涨幅逾五成。截至发稿,涨4.43%,报22.14港元,成交额 3.38亿港元。 申万宏源指出,根据海关总署数据,我国6-8月钴中间品进口量分别为1.9、1.38、0.52万吨,环比分 别-61.62%、-27.26%、-62.05%。若按刚果金出口暂停7个月计算,预计25年全球钴有效供给将从28.2万 吨下降34%至18.5万吨,且若后续进一步延长禁令持续时间,原料短缺风险或将加剧。该行认为,后续 供给偏紧的情况下,预计短期钴价将持续上涨,且长期来看,刚果金政府对钴供给管控态度明确,钴价 远期中枢也有较强支撑。 力勤资源 消息面上,近日,刚果(金)战略矿产市场监管与管理局(ARECOMS)发布最新钴出口政策,包括出口暂 停期延长至20 ...
钴又被庄家盯上了
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-30 09:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising cobalt prices driven by government intervention in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is expected to benefit the DRC government and impact the global electric vehicle (EV) market significantly. Group 1: Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt prices have experienced two significant cycles of volatility since 2016 due to supply-demand mismatches [2] - From May 2022 to early 2025, cobalt prices entered a downward phase due to slowing demand for EVs and increased competition from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries [4] - The DRC government has intervened in the cobalt market since 2025, controlling supply to create an upward price cycle [5][6] Group 2: Government Intervention - The DRC, as the largest cobalt supplier, accounted for over 75% of global cobalt supply in 2024, with reserves of 6 million tons [6] - The DRC government imposed temporary export bans on cobalt in 2025, leading to a price rebound of over 100% from its lowest point [7] - The DRC has extended the export ban and introduced a quota system, limiting exports to 9.66 million tons in 2026 and 2027, significantly below its production capacity [8] Group 3: Price Projections - Analysts predict that cobalt prices could reach between 400,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton due to the supply constraints imposed by the DRC government [8] - The global demand for cobalt is expected to grow, with projected requirements of 248,000 tons in 2025 and 329,000 tons in 2027, indicating a widening supply-demand gap [8] Group 4: Impact on Battery Technology - The rising cobalt prices are likely to negatively impact the nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery route while benefiting LFP battery manufacturers [18] - The cost increase in cobalt could lead to a rise of over 10,000 yuan in battery costs for each EV, affecting automaker profit margins and consumer choices [18] - Companies are exploring alternative battery technologies to reduce cobalt dependency, such as high-nickel low-cobalt batteries [19][20] Group 5: Recycling and Market Opportunities - Cobalt recycling companies are expected to benefit from rising prices, with companies like Greeenme's cobalt recycling business showing improved profitability [21] - The current cobalt price crisis serves as a catalyst for industry upgrades and a lesson for the Chinese EV sector [22] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The DRC government's intervention in the cobalt market suggests a sustained upward price trend, making cobalt price tracking crucial for investors [23] - Historical performance of cobalt producers like Huayou Cobalt during previous price cycles may provide insights for current investment strategies [23]
见证历史,市场行情突变
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-30 05:09
【导读】上午A股三大股指收涨,芯片产业链爆发,半导体、存储芯片等概念板块走强 来看具体情况—— 伙伴们,国庆中秋长期马上就到了,今天是节前最后一个交易日,基金君和你一起关注今天上午的市场行情。 9月30日上午,A股三大股指在小幅开盘后持续攀升,创业板指盘中涨超1%,随后涨幅收窄。截至午间收盘,沪指报3878.13点,涨0.4%,深证成指涨 0.31%,创业板指涨0.06%。 沪深两市半日成交额为1.36万亿元,较上个交易日放量763亿元。个股涨多跌少,市场共2977只个股上涨,48只个股涨停,2331只个股下跌。 从板块看,大科技普涨,存储芯片板块高开高走,光刻机概念板块表现活跃,航天军工、有色金属板块大幅上涨;大金融板块出现回调,通信设备板块走 弱。 | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 存储器 | 锂电电解液 | ASIC芯片 | 钻矿 | 锂电正极 | 教育 | 航天军工 | 基本金属 | 半导体 | 综合类 | | 5.81% ...