With the Fed lowering their Fed Funds Rate again last week , treasury rates -- especially those on the long end of the yield curve -- have been dominating headlines. The curve is still looking wonky, with the 3-month UST still yieldingNewsletter Author | Investment Advisor | Top 5% of Experts on TipRanks | Long Signal, Short Noise | I am a macro-oriented and data-driven investor who obsesses over connecting dots that others don't see (or want to see), expressing my views through concentrated, asymmetrical, ...

如果说空间止损是已经证明你的操作是错误的；那么，时间止损就是一定的时间内你的逻辑"未被证明正确"，它不一定非要证明你错了，但在规定的时间 内没有证明你的入场逻辑或入场理由是对的，你就应该离场。 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展1309亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1223亿元逆回购到期，净投放86亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.27%附近，DR007在1.44%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 15) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | (12 | 成交通占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.35 | 0 | | 1.88 | 8 | 75026. 76 | 670. 01 | | 89.84 | | R007 | ...

| | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 12) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 ( 亿 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | 元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.35 | | | 1. 80 | -1 | 74356. 75 | 618. 44 | 90. 16 | | R007 | 1.51 | | | 1. 80 | -10 | 7221. 69 | -416. 31 | 8.76 | | R014 | 1.55 | 2 | | 2.80 | 10 | 486. 08 | -211. 11 | 0. 59 | | R1H | 1.69 | | | 2. 05 | -5 | 350. 90 | 47.96 | 0. 43 | | No. 26 | | | | | | 00190 10 | An An | 00 00 ...

Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.19% on December 12, 2025, with the 2-year note at 3.52% and the 30-year note at 4.85% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Trends - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with recent negative spreads observed from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [5] - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, impacting mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.22% [7] Market Behavior - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - Various ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

新华财经北京12月12日电（王菁）债市周五（12月12日）走势"先强后弱"，上日现券尾盘在等到重要会 议内容出炉后，收益率一度加速走低。今日早间债市情绪延续回暖，午前动能有所减弱，午后期现券相 继陷入弱势；公开市场单日净回笼193亿元，资金利率多数回升。 【资金面】 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行2BPs左右，截至发稿，7年期活跃券"25附息国债18"收益率上行2BPs 报1.72%，10年期活跃券"25附息国债16"上行2BPs报1.835%，同期限"25国开15"上行2BPs报1.903%；30 年期"25超长特别国债06"上行2BPs报2.228%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.35%，报482.97点，成交金额646.32亿元。瑞可转债、嘉泽转债、松霖转债、 航宇转债、精装转债涨幅居前，分别涨57.30%、15.13%、9.40%、8.80%、8.75%。龙大转债、能辉转 债、东时转债、华锐转债、宏图转债跌幅居前，分别跌3.87%、3.79%、3.69%、3.52%、3.25%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间12月11日，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.23BP报3.538%，3年 期美 ...

新华财经北京12月12日电（王菁）如果说债券市场的宏观规则是主体工程的"四梁八柱"，那么业务指南 的不断优化修订，则如同对内部管线与安全通道的精心升级。12月12日，上海证券交易所公告对《上海 证券交易所债券交易业务指南第1号——交易业务》（以下简称《指南》）进行了修订并正式实施。 本次修订的核心在于优化市场运行的"微观机制"：一方面，通过明确应急成交流程、新增非交易过户章 节，夯实了市场基础服务的"安全垫"与"规范手册"；另一方面，继续明确债券借贷业务的详细行情暂不 公布，为一项关键创新机制的稳健成长留出必要的"观察期"与"培育期"。 业内人士对新华财经表示，简化流程、提升效率的举措最终将转化为市场更强的流动性和定价效率。将 看似微小的操作指引标准化，实则是在为债券市场这座"大厦"安装更可靠的"稳定锚"，其长远意义在于 提升我国交易所债券市场的整体韧性、透明度和国际吸引力。 与前述多角度业务指南优化同步受到关注的，是关于"债券借贷业务的逐笔成交行情、汇总行情暂不公 布"的决定。 聚焦实操：应急与非交易过户机制获明确迭代助力市场高质量发展 整体来看，在市场关注产品创新与规模扩张的同时，本次修订将目光聚焦于应急 ...

每经AI快讯，12月12日，银行间利率债中长期转弱，30年期活跃券"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行 0.05bp报2.2075%，盘初一度下行超1bp；10年期活跃券"25附息国债16"转为上行1bp报1.825%，同期限 活跃券"25国开15"上行0.3bp报1.886%。 ...

Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Rob Isbitts from Sungarden Investors Club on the S&P 500 sucking up all the air in the room and the top things he's thinking about (0:50). Building a bond ladder (3:10). Playing ETFs on offense and defense (9:00). The last few weeks have seen typical market behavior (26:45). Transcript Rena Sherbill: Rob Isbitts from Sungarden Investment Publishing and his Investing Group, Sungarden Investors Club. Welcome b ...

Japanese companies sold a record amount of yen-denominated bonds targeting individuals this year, the latest sign that sticky inflation is causing households to shift more of their $14.3 trillion of financial assets into riskier investments https://t.co/71246Gxyan ...

Back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caden here in Chicago alongside Sam Bodis at the New York Stock Exchange. We'll close out our show with some final thoughts on the session today.Of course, it was Fed day. We finally got our rate cut decision from the Federal Reserve and it was 25 basis points that the market had predicted. The decision was split as expected with the FOMC signaling a tougher road ahead for further reductions.The closely watched dot plot indicated just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027. ...