2025年5月空调内销出货双位数增长，规模同期新高;考虑2024年5月内销同比-1%，剔除基数因素看， 2025年5月内销出货量较2023/2019年同期CAGR分别+6%/+5%，稳健增长。终端方面，4-5月龙头安装卡 增长提速，同期基数环比平稳;据奥维监测，3/4/5月空调线上零售量分别同比+13%/+39%/+47%，时值 动销旺季，景气斜率向上，而1-4月零售出货节奏基本一致，产业健康运行。展望后续，2024年6-8月空 调内销量分别同比-16%/-21%/-5%，基数走低，弹性有望进一步释放。 龙头份额向上，二线表现分化 智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，维持空调行业"强于大市"评级。家用空调5月内销景气 向上，外销短期走弱符合预期。国内出货动销趋势一致，产业健康运行，龙头价格策略积极，份额弹性 显著，美的系表现突出;海外需求/关税不确定性仍较高，消化Q1提前出货影响后，有望逐步修复。2025 年以旧换新放宽主体/数量限制，后续出货基数走低，弹性或进一步释放;龙头2025Q1报表质量优异，海 外新兴市场OBM持续突破，后续经营有支撑，年报分红回购力度多有加大，高质量且高股息。 国联民生证券 ...

Emerging Markets Dynamics - Vietnam has officially joined the BRICS cooperation mechanism as a partner country, welcomed by the Brazilian government, which currently holds the rotating presidency of BRICS [1] - The BRICS partner countries now include Nigeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan, expanding the total number of BRICS members to 11 [1] Financial Cooperation - The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Turkey have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 350 billion RMB (approximately 189 billion Turkish Lira), effective for three years [2] - A memorandum of cooperation was signed to establish a RMB clearing arrangement in Turkey, enhancing financial cooperation and facilitating cross-border trade and investment [2] Platform Developments - TikTok announced an investment expansion in the UK to approximately £140 million (around 1.36 billion RMB), including the establishment of a new office in London and an increase in employee numbers to 3,000 [3] - TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia has relaxed entry policies for businesses, removing e-commerce experience requirements, allowing individual sellers to enter the market more easily [4] - TikTok Shop has launched a "Hot Product Takeoff Plan" in the US and Europe, providing various support resources to help merchants boost sales during the summer season [5] Industry Observations - Vietnam's commercial air conditioning market is projected to reach $600 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9%, while the first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a market size of $123 million, growing by 13.9% [9] - In Indonesia, the commercial air conditioning market is expected to reach $218 million in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [10] - The Chinese mobile gaming industry accounted for 36.6% of global revenue in May 2025, with 33 Chinese companies making it to the top 100 global mobile game publishers [11] Shipping and Logistics - In the first five months of the year, Chinese shipbuilders secured 274 new ship orders, accounting for approximately 49% of the global market share, while global new ship orders have dropped to a near four-year low [12][13] - The demand for OLED display panels is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 69% in 2025, driven by strong demand in the gaming sector [14] Policy Changes - Starting July 1, Vietnam will require e-commerce platforms to withhold and pay taxes on behalf of sellers, including VAT and personal income tax, with specific rates outlined for different types of transactions [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [12] Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's 2023 "Human-Vehicle-Home Ecosystem" strategy integrates mobile phones, home appliances, and automobiles through the Surge OS system, promoting seamless connectivity of smart hardware [4][24] - Xiaomi's home appliance business has achieved significant growth, particularly in air conditioning, with sales volume ranking among the industry leaders [4][7] - The IoT and consumer products segment is projected to account for 28.45% of Xiaomi's total revenue in 2024, with air conditioning sales expected to exceed 6.8 million units, a year-on-year growth of over 50% [7][21] Summary by Sections Overview: Building the Human-Vehicle-Home Ecosystem - Xiaomi has rapidly expanded its home appliance market share by leveraging its competitive pricing strategy and innovative technology [7][8] - The company has increased its offline retail presence, with plans to open over 100 "Human-Vehicle-Home" integrated stores in 2024 [27][29] Rise: Three Strategies Driving High Growth in Home Appliances - Xiaomi's market share has surged due to its focus on creating popular products, differentiated competition, and enhancing user loyalty through an integrated ecosystem [8][54] - The company has adopted a low-price strategy similar to that of its competitors, attracting price-sensitive consumers while maintaining a focus on quality [9][62] Impact: Leading Brands Maintain Advantage, Xiaomi's Entry Sparks Change - Xiaomi's entry into the air conditioning market has prompted established brands to adapt their strategies, although the latter still hold significant market share [9][62] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with Xiaomi's low-price strategy posing challenges to traditional leaders like Gree and Midea [9][63] Investment Recommendations: Focus on Certainty Growth Leaders - The report suggests investing in quality leaders with low exposure to the U.S. market, such as Gree Electric, Midea Group, and Hisense Home Appliances, which are expected to benefit from domestic demand trends [10][13]

Core Viewpoint - Gree's subsidiary, Gree Titanium New Energy, is facing severe financial difficulties, highlighted by a recent stock freeze and significant losses, raising concerns about its future viability and the impact on Gree Electric's overall financial health [2][4][10]. Group 1: Financial Challenges - Gree Titanium has a total debt of 24.786 billion yuan and a net loss of 1.905 billion yuan as of June 2024, with an asset-liability ratio nearing 100% [4][10]. - The company has accumulated losses of nearly 5 billion yuan since being controlled by Gree Electric in 2021, making it Gree's largest financial burden [10][11]. - Gree Titanium's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 1.987 billion yuan, with a staggering loss of 1.9 billion yuan, indicating a loss of 0.95 yuan for every yuan of revenue generated [10]. Group 2: Technological and Market Position - Gree Titanium's reliance on titanium lithium battery technology has proven to be a significant disadvantage, with energy density ranging from 58-110 Wh/kg compared to competitors like CATL, which achieves 240 Wh/kg [7][8]. - The cost of titanium lithium batteries is approximately three times that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, further complicating Gree Titanium's competitive position in the market [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Missteps - The acquisition of Zhuhai Yinlong New Energy in 2016, which was met with skepticism from shareholders, has led to a series of strategic miscalculations, with Gree Titanium now seen as a "hot potato" [5][6][12]. - Gree Titanium's shift in strategy to focus on engineering vehicles and energy storage, while retracting from passenger vehicles, reflects a retreat from earlier ambitious plans [12][13]. - The company's management issues, including a significant related-party transaction scandal, have compounded its financial woes, leading to a lack of confidence in its operational capabilities [10][11]. Group 4: Leadership and Future Outlook - Gree's chairperson, Dong Mingzhu, faces increasing pressure as the company's financial situation deteriorates, with some analysts suggesting that her continued leadership may be tied to her personal investments in Gree Titanium [14][15]. - The looming bankruptcy risk for Gree Titanium poses a critical challenge for Gree Electric, as the company must navigate its financial obligations while attempting to stabilize its subsidiary [14].

Core Viewpoint - Gree Electric Appliances, led by Dong Mingzhu, is facing significant financial difficulties, highlighted by the recent freezing of shares worth 1.806 billion yuan in Zhuhai Guangtong Automobile Co., Ltd. This situation underscores the financial crisis stemming from the company's investment in the new energy sector, particularly the acquisition of Yinlong New Energy in 2016, which is now showing signs of severe risk [5][6][8]. Group 1: Financial Situation - As of June 2024, Gree Titanium's total liabilities reached 24.786 billion yuan, with a net loss of 1.905 billion yuan in the first half of the year, resulting in an asset-liability ratio nearing 100% [5][9]. - Gree Titanium has accumulated losses of nearly 5 billion yuan since being controlled by Gree Electric in 2021, making it the largest financial burden for the parent company [11]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 1.987 billion yuan, with losses amounting to 1.9 billion yuan, indicating a loss of 0.95 yuan for every 1 yuan of revenue generated [10][11]. Group 2: Technology and Market Position - Gree Titanium's reliance on titanium lithium battery technology has proven to be a significant disadvantage, with energy density ranging from 58-110 Wh/kg, compared to competitors like CATL, which achieves 240 Wh/kg [9][10]. - The cost of titanium lithium batteries is approximately three times that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, making it challenging for Gree Titanium to compete in a market dominated by companies like BYD and CATL that have achieved economies of scale [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Decisions and Leadership - Dong Mingzhu's insistence on entering the new energy vehicle market has been met with skepticism from shareholders, leading to a failed acquisition attempt in 2016 that was viewed as a gamble on her part [6][7][8]. - The company's shift towards a "dual-line strategy" focusing on energy storage and engineering vehicles reflects a retreat from the passenger vehicle market, which has been characterized by significant losses [13][14]. - Dong Mingzhu's previous investments, including a personal stake of 2.34 billion yuan in Yinlong, have left her in a precarious position, with potential bankruptcy risks looming over Gree Titanium [15][16].

Group 1: Air Conditioning Market Dynamics - The air conditioning market is experiencing a fierce price war, with 1.5 HP energy-efficient products priced as low as 1200 yuan, leading to an 18% year-on-year decline in average prices and inventory nearing 50 million units, indicating a combination of weak demand and overcapacity [1] - Despite government support for aluminum use in home appliances, the adoption is slow due to limitations in material performance, lack of standards, and consumer trust issues [1] - Companies like Gree and Changhong continue to favor copper materials, enhancing performance and emphasizing high-quality branding through extended warranty promises [1] - Complaints in the air conditioning sector surged by 22% in the first half of 2025, with over 40% related to issues like "energy efficiency misrepresentation" and "shortened lifespan," highlighting consumer distrust in new material products [1] - Manufacturers focusing on copper performance and quality, such as Gree and Changhong, are suitable for conservative investors to monitor their profitability and brand premium maintenance [1] Group 2: Green Hydrogen Industry - Green hydrogen is a strategic emerging industry under the "dual carbon goals," serving multiple functions such as clean energy, energy storage, and chemical raw materials, and is crucial for industrial decarbonization [1] - By the end of 2024, over 560 hydrogen-related policies will have been issued nationwide, with hydrogen energy being prioritized by the central government and 22 provincial governments; the "Energy Law" has granted hydrogen energy legal status for the first time [1] - The green hydrogen sector is transitioning from "technology validation" to "commercial scale," characterized by its immature state but significant potential, representing a long-term structural opportunity [1] - Focus should be on low electricity cost regions (e.g., the western regions) and companies with self-generation capabilities; there is substantial room for domestic substitution in electrolyzer technology, presenting opportunities for equipment manufacturers [1] Group 3: Oil and Gas Market Response to Geopolitical Tensions - The recent escalation in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions against Iran, has heightened concerns over potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased oil price expectations [2] - Although Iran's oil supply accounts for only 3-4% of global supply, its strategic location means that any transport disruptions could push oil prices above $90 [2] - The current global oil demand season, combined with a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve and increased global inventory replenishment needs, supports upward pressure on oil prices [2] - Oil and gas ETFs, such as the S&P Oil & Gas ETF, have shown significant strength, presenting short to medium-term investment opportunities, particularly for companies with upstream oil fields or resource reserves [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to maintain high oil prices, with Brent crude recently breaking through key resistance levels [3] Group 4: Silver Market Trends - Silver prices have surged significantly, primarily driven by the "gold-silver ratio repair" logic, with the ratio exceeding 100 in April, indicating silver was severely undervalued [4] - The recent rise in silver prices is supported by a substantial increase in gold prices, market sentiment spillover, technical breakthroughs, and ETF accumulation, resulting in over a 50% increase from low to high [4] - Although the gold-silver ratio has decreased, it remains above the long-term average, suggesting further upside potential for silver, making it an attractive option for flexible allocation within precious metals [4] - Complex geopolitical situations and renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China are amplifying market demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Despite the bullish outlook, silver is more susceptible to economic cycles; a potential global economic slowdown could exert downward pressure on silver prices [4] - The silver market is expected to exhibit characteristics of "strong support, high volatility," driven by safe-haven demand and valuation recovery, suggesting a strategy of trend-following and gradual accumulation rather than aggressive buying [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The air conditioning industry has significant space for growth, with leading companies focusing on the mid-to-high-end market while low-price demand continues to exist, benefiting the development of small and medium brands [3][6] - The report uses the case of Aux to analyze the characteristics and structure of the air conditioning industry, highlighting the challenges Aux faces in maintaining a high market share in the long term [5][9] Summary by Sections Introduction - Aux Electric submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 15, 2025. Despite challenges from industry leaders, Aux has achieved impressive operational results, with 2023 revenues exceeding 20 billion yuan [5][19] Industry Space - The air conditioning industry is expected to have a total shipment volume of over 200 million units in 2024, leading among major home appliance categories. The global penetration rate of air conditioning products remains low, indicating strong long-term growth potential [6][29] Aux's Rise - From 2015 to 2018, e-commerce channels contributed 60% of Aux's revenue growth, allowing it to achieve a temporary market share breakthrough. Aux adopted a differentiated competition strategy by leveraging price advantages against leading brands [7][60] Challenges for Aux - Since 2019, Aux's market share has declined rapidly due to price competition initiated by Midea. Aux's cost pressures limit its ability to follow suit in price reductions, resulting in a loss of price competitiveness [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report concludes that the price-for-volume strategy is unlikely to disrupt the long-term competitive landscape of the air conditioning industry. The broad demand space supports Aux's revenue scale, but its profitability remains volatile due to production scale and supply chain integration challenges [9][42]

Group 1 - Over 60% of actively managed equity funds have recovered their net value to levels seen two months ago, with a strong performance from funds focused on innovative pharmaceuticals and AI sectors [1] - The upcoming mid-year assessment is prompting wealth management companies to optimize asset allocation strategies, including shortening bond durations to control volatility [1] - The Hong Kong IPO market is heating up, with 190 companies queued for listing, many of which are from mainland China, indicating a trend of A+H listings [2] Group 2 - The domestic robotics industry is experiencing a surge in IPO activity in Hong Kong, with nine companies disclosing plans to list, reflecting strong investor interest in hard technology [2] - Midea Group has initiated a voluntary recall of over one million window air conditioners in North America due to a rare issue with mold on a specific component, with a complaint rate of less than 0.01% [3] - Several major automotive companies have committed to a unified payment term of no more than 60 days, indicating a shift in industry payment practices [3] Group 3 - The launch of the world's first AI-based fully automated design system for processor chips marks a significant advancement in chip design, addressing the growing demand for specialized chips [4] - The successful listing of a leading company in the panoramic camera sector has attracted significant attention from capital markets, with the global market for panoramic cameras expected to grow at a CAGR of over 10% [4] - The summer grain wheat harvest in China has progressed to over 70%, with significant contributions from major wheat-producing provinces [5] Group 4 - OpenAI is investigating increased error rates affecting its API and ChatGPT services, with over 1,000 service interruption reports logged [5] - Haitian Flavor Industry plans to issue 263.24 million shares in its Hong Kong listing, with a price range set between HKD 35 and HKD 36.3 [6] - A food safety incident involving excessive bacterial counts at a specific store has led to regulatory actions against the establishment [7] Group 5 - The financial regulatory authority has imposed strict penalties on two insurance companies, marking a shift towards individual accountability in the insurance sector [8] - Tencent Music has signed an acquisition agreement with Himalaya, with assurances that the brand and management structure will remain unchanged post-acquisition [9] - A significant personnel change has occurred at Yanghe Co., with a board member resigning due to work relocation [10]

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning industry is experiencing intense price competition, leading to significant personnel changes and strategic partnerships among key players, including the potential collaboration between Huang Hui and Meibo Air Conditioning [2][6]. Company Developments - Huang Hui, former president of Gree Electric, has reportedly joined Meibo Air Conditioning, although the specifics of his role remain undisclosed [2]. - Huang Hui previously left Gree in February 2021 for Philips Air Conditioning, where he served as chairman and oversaw the establishment of a major production base in Chuzhou, Anhui, with an investment of 10 billion yuan [2][4]. - Philips Air Conditioning has struggled to gain market share, failing to break into the top 20 in both online and offline channels in China [3]. Market Dynamics - The air conditioning market is facing a price war, with brands like Xiaomi offering low-cost models, which has pressured mid-tier and lower-tier brands [6][7]. - Data indicates that from May 26 to June 1, 2023, online sales in the air conditioning market saw a slight decline in both sales volume and average price, while offline sales experienced a minor increase [6]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading brands like Midea and Gree now targeting lower price segments, which could threaten smaller brands [7]. Strategic Partnerships - Meibo Air Conditioning is in discussions with Huang Hui, potentially related to the transfer of his 19% stake in Enboli (Philips Air Conditioning) [5]. - Meibo aims to leverage Huang Hui's experience to enhance the quality and reputation of its air conditioning products [5][7]. - The collaboration may face challenges due to Meibo's focus on cost-effective products, which may not align with Huang Hui's previous experience in higher-end markets [8].

Group 1: Domestic Market Strategy - The company continuously optimizes its sales network and service system to enhance marketing capabilities, focusing on five key initiatives: "promote quality products, strengthen channels, enhance collaboration, improve efficiency, and control risks" [1] - A differentiated product strategy is implemented, integrating online and offline promotional resources to push high-quality products [1] - The management structure is improved to enhance operational and service efficiency, aiming for product leadership and efficiency enhancement through innovative management [1] Group 2: Overseas Business Development - In 2025, the company will focus on product innovation, emphasizing "large capacity, multi-temperature zones, high energy efficiency, and low noise" to meet global consumer demand [1] - A user-centered comprehensive marketing system will be established to enhance customer cooperation efficiency and meet large customer demands [1] - The company aims to accelerate brand expansion based on its ODM business foundation [1] Group 3: Air Conditioning Market Strategy - The company will leverage AI technology to enhance user experience and differentiate product design, promoting "all-dust-free" and "kitchen-cabinet" product lines [2] - Increased market investment will be made through event marketing and new media to boost brand awareness and reputation [2] - Service capabilities will be strengthened to improve user satisfaction through rapid response [2] Group 4: Innovation and Growth Plans - The company will drive industry development through innovation in technology, products, manufacturing, and management to enhance competitiveness [2] - The 2025 operational plan focuses on resource integration to strengthen market foundations and accelerate development through internal and external collaboration [2] - The company aims for simultaneous growth in scale and profit, ensuring a positive trend in profitable growth [2]