三年前，雷军站在发布会舞台中央说："我愿押上人生全部声誉，为小米汽车而战。" 三年后，一群车主举着"雷骗退钱"的牌子，堵在小米门店外。那个曾被称作"雷布斯"的男人，如今被网 友改名叫"雷不退"。 从"营销之神"到"行业公敌"，雷军和小米的口碑，是怎么一夜翻车的？ 很多人说小米最近"飘了""虚假宣传""割韭菜"。可问题是：小米这套玩法，十几年没变过，参数拉满、 价格打穿、营销造势。 别人辛苦赚10%的利润，你一口吃掉26%，还不让说话？这哪是做生意？这是掀桌子拆房。 同行也这么干，为啥就小米被架在火上烤？答案很简单：你动的蛋糕，太大了。 以前小米卖手机，对手是华为、荣耀、OV，大家在几千块的战场上拼刺刀。可现在呢？小米三线作 战：手机 + 家电 + 汽车，一口气冲进三个万亿级市场。 这就相当于，你原本在菜市场卖白菜，突然哪天杀进金店、4S店、楼盘售楼处，谁不恨你？ 家电圈，小米空调半年卖540万台，直逼格力、美的；汽车行业，小米SU7一上来就抢20万+高端市场， 毛利率26%，是传统车企的两倍多。 小米做手机，吹一吹参数，小字写个"以实际体验为准"，问题不大。毕竟手机用两年就换，坏了顶多骂 一句"智商税"。 可 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, and Haidilao, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the F&B, designer toys, and home appliances sectors, including Amap waiving annual entry fees for F&B merchants and MINISO's plan to spin off TOPTOY for public listing [5][6]. - Key performers this week include XIABUXIABU (+8.6%) and HISENSE V.T. (+12.7%), while underperformers include Green Tea Group (-9.8%) and MINISO (-11.1%) [2][6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Amap announced a one-year waiver of annual entry fees for all F&B merchants nationwide, along with various support services [5]. - Guoquan proposed a share buyback of up to HK$100 million, citing that the current stock price does not reflect the company's intrinsic value [5]. - MINISO plans to spin off its subsidiary TOPTOY for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5]. - Xiaomi's major home appliances have officially entered the European market, with the opening of its first direct store in Germany [5]. - Hisense commenced construction of its largest overseas industrial park in Thailand, aimed at expanding its footprint in ASEAN and globally [5]. Weekly Performance of Key Companies - Top performers include XIABUXIABU (+8.6%) in the F&B sector and HISENSE V.T. (+12.7%) in the home appliance sector [6]. - Underperformers include Green Tea Group (-9.8%) in the F&B sector and MINISO (-11.1%) in the designer toys sector [6].

甘建国告诉记者，鸿蒙智选MEIPONT智能空调中采用的豪米波雷达、星闪联盟、海思芯片、Wifi模组等技术和资源，均由华为推荐方案、推荐模组或赋 能。去年国庆，华为已提出要打造空调界的"问界"（汽车），并在招标时，规划把这些技术应用于空调。 美邦（MEIPONT）今年三月中标，成为鸿蒙智选的空调合作伙伴。之前，美邦已是鸿蒙智联的空调合作伙伴。甘建国打比方说，两者都属于鸿蒙生态，之 前是"经济舱"，现在是"头等舱"。鸿蒙智联的产品，由华为提供产品认证机构检测、品控监测、鸿蒙智联技术认证。而鸿蒙智选的产品，则是双方进行产品 共创，覆盖从设计、审厂、品控、功能定义，到销售定价的全流程。 空调业依托智能生态的新势力正在崛起。传统空调龙头企业格力电器（000651.SZ）面对冲击，业绩承压，9月26日股价一度跌至39.3元/股，为今年来新低。 新老力量交织，空调业正经历价格战、技术战和服务战。 新势力崛起 9月26日，在鸿蒙智选2025秋季新品发布会上，健康空气成为鸿蒙生态重点发力场景。MEIPONT空调总经理甘建国向第一财经记者透露，鸿蒙智选 MEIPONT空调首批产品十天前开卖，现已售罄，风神之眼Pro的升级版产品" ...

空调业的生态竞争、服务竞争加剧。基于智能生态的新势力空调高配低价，给老百姓带来更多新技术体验，但空调行业竞争格局改写还言之尚早。 记者留意到，相比传统空调，鸿蒙智联的空调更突出智能化和生态联动的卖点，比如结合毫米波雷达技术，实现风随人动、风避人吹、人近风柔；用智能技 术，实现节能并在手机上呈现；支持星闪联盟，即使没有通讯网络，也可稳定连接；空调与空气质量传感器、空气净化器等联动，提供健康空气解决方案， 还可与智能床联动来助力睡眠。 不仅鸿蒙生态力推空调，小米依托其"人车家"生态也在发力空调业务。奥维（AVC）数据显示，2025年截至9月21日，小米在国内家用空调线上市场的销售 额份额达14.73%，同比提升3.78个百分点，排名第三，仅居美的（24.05%）、格力（23.49%）之后。而小米空调的线下份额，相比线下居首位的格力，仍有 明显差距。 空调业依托智能生态的新势力正在崛起。传统空调龙头企业格力电器（000651.SZ）面对冲击，业绩承压，9月26日股价一度跌至39.3元/股，为今年来新低。 新老力量交织，空调业正经历价格战、技术战和服务战。 新势力崛起 9月26日，在鸿蒙智选2025秋季新品发布会上， ...

跨境出海丨市场观察 本周看点： -长视频出海：中国平台与Netflix的东南亚激战； -从"中国造"到"全球跑"，新能源重卡新势力为何率先出海抢滩？ -2025年中国家居出海：新兴市场需谨慎探索，北美市场仍是首选。 行业环境 1.长视频出海：中国平台与Netflix的东南亚激战 关键词 ： 长视频,出海,东南亚,流媒体市场,本土化 概要 ： 东南亚流媒体市场竞争加剧，预计2030年市场规模将达68亿美元。中国平台（如爱奇 艺、WeTV、优酷）通过差异化策略挑战Netflix：爱奇艺主打高预算本土原创内容与灵活订阅 模式；WeTV聚焦偶像养成，增强用户粘性；优酷输出成熟综艺模式。中国平台凭借低价订 阅、深度本土化及本地支付优势抢占市场，尤其在泰国份额超40%。Netflix则依靠全球品牌、 高制作预算（如《鱿鱼游戏》）维持竞争力。新兴的短剧成为关键变量，中国平台快速布局低 成本高回报内容，而Netflix谨慎跟进。未来竞争将围绕生态与模式创新展开，短剧或成中国平 台弯道超车的机会。 2.从"中国造"到"全球跑"，新能源重卡新势力为何率先出海抢滩 关键词 ： 新能源重卡,海外市场,竞争压力,技术突破,环保意识 4 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Research - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase auction method is essentially a continuation of previous policy thoughts, with limited incremental information being conveyed [3][17] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a strong continuity in its monetary policy approach, with the recent adjustments aimed at stabilizing liquidity rather than signaling a shift towards more accommodative policies [2][19] - The actual pricing ability of the 14-day reverse repurchase is limited, and it is likely to continue being used as an unconventional tool to address special periods such as holidays [4][18] Group 2: Construction Industry - In the 38th week of 2025, the issuance of new special bonds by local governments decreased by 25.8% compared to the previous week, with a total issuance of 978.2 billion yuan [8] - The financing net amount of urban investment bonds decreased year-on-year, indicating a contraction in funding for construction projects [8] - The construction site funding availability rate was reported at 59.39%, showing a slight week-on-week increase but a year-on-year decline of 3.13% [8] Group 3: Real Estate Market - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transaction area decreased by 4.2% [9] - The cumulative transaction area for new homes this year is down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the real estate market [9] - Land supply in 100 cities decreased by 13.7% year-on-year, reflecting a contraction in the real estate development pipeline [9] Group 4: Company Analysis - China Power Construction Corporation signed new orders worth 800.79 billion yuan from January to August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [11] - China Chemical Corporation's new orders for the same period were 256.34 billion yuan, showing a minimal year-on-year increase of 0.1% [11] - China Metallurgical Group Corporation's new orders decreased by 18.2% year-on-year, indicating challenges in securing new contracts [11] Group 5: Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi's revenue projections for FY2025E-FY2027E are maintained at 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion yuan [12] - The company is expected to exceed its annual delivery target of 350,000 vehicles, with stable delivery volumes above 30,000 units in July and August [13] - The air conditioning segment saw a significant increase in shipments, with over 5.4 million units sold in Q2 2025, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [14] Group 6: Industry Trends - The global wind power installation volume is expected to continue growing, with significant contributions from China, Europe, and North America [26] - The demand for wind turbine blade materials is anticipated to expand due to policy encouragement and declining costs [24] - The chemical raw materials manufacturing industry has a current static P/E ratio of 27.95, indicating a competitive valuation landscape [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes stable automotive deliveries, competitive advantages in major appliances, and the potential catalyst from new smartphone releases [1][2] Group 2 - The company maintains revenue forecasts for FY2025E-FY2027E at RMB 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates at RMB 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion [1] - The automotive delivery volume exceeded 30,000 units in July and August, indicating a strong outlook for surpassing the annual target of 350,000 units [1] - The automotive production capacity is expected to ramp up quickly due to accumulated supply chain experience and component reuse from the first-phase factory [1] Group 3 - The air conditioning segment saw a shipment volume of over 5.4 million units in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 60%, with growth rates exceeding 50% for three consecutive quarters [2] - The new Wuhan factory is set to enhance the company's competitive edge in major appliances, complementing its new retail model [2] - Upcoming smartphone releases, including the Xiaomi 17 Pro and ProMax, are anticipated to drive improvements in revenue and gross margin in Q4 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that Xiaomi's automotive deliveries are stable, its major appliances maintain competitive advantages, and the upcoming smartphone releases may serve as significant catalysts for growth [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 270,971 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 758,393 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.2% [5]. - Gross profit is expected to grow from RMB 57,477 million in 2023 to RMB 188,736 million in 2027, with gross margin improving from 21.2% to 24.9% over the same period [5]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise significantly from RMB 19,273 million in 2023 to RMB 83,643 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. Automotive Segment - Xiaomi's automotive deliveries have consistently exceeded 30,000 units in July and August, positioning the company to potentially surpass its annual target of 350,000 deliveries for 2025 [11]. - The second-phase factory is expected to ramp up production faster than the first phase due to accumulated supply chain and production experience [11]. Home Appliances Segment - The air conditioning segment has seen a significant increase, with shipments exceeding 5.4 million units in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 60% [11]. - The new Wuhan factory is anticipated to enhance Xiaomi's competitive edge in the major appliances market [11]. Smartphone Segment - The upcoming launch of the Xiaomi 17 Pro and ProMax is expected to be a key catalyst, with pre-orders reportedly doubling compared to the previous generation [11]. - The report suggests that the new smartphone releases could lead to improved revenue and gross margin performance in Q4 [11].

小米和格力在空调领域的明争暗斗，终于来到了大决战的时刻。 在9 月 19 日的直播中，一贯喜欢借着直播、沟通会等名义放出重磅消息的小米，果然搞了个大新闻。小米集团高级副总裁卢伟冰宣布，小米空调正式推 出"10年免费包修"服务，覆盖自今年 1 月 1 日起完成首次安装的米家空调，数量大概在 750 万台。 消息一出，微博热搜立即安排。鉴于上个月小米才因"行业第二"的归属与格力打起口水战，加之"整机10年免费包修"正是格力引以为傲的卖点，小米此举 显然意有所指。 果然，在其他空调品牌还在闭麦的情况下，格力率先回应了小米空调的保修新政策。在直播结束后，格力市场总监朱磊发文称 "十年免费包修是承诺，十 年不用修才是实力"。 从产品到售后政策全面跟进，小米空调，这下终于能和格力正面硬刚了吗？ 「10年包修」的含金量 虽然小米总爱搞个大新闻，但也经常出现"雷声大雨点小"的情况，这次空调的"10 年包修"政策一出，在网上讨论最多的，或者说对消费者来说最想知道 的，是它究竟有多少含金量。 首先，是 "10 年包修"产品的覆盖范围。有网友提醒，这个空调的新政策，说不准只覆盖了在米家商城上售卖的"米家空调"。 这件事怪不得网友" ...

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific maintains revenue forecasts for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) at RMB 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion for FY2025E-FY2027E respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates at RMB 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion [1] - The stable delivery of Xiaomi vehicles, with over 30,000 units delivered in July and August, positions the company to potentially exceed its annual target of 350,000 deliveries for 2025 [2] - Xiaomi's air conditioning shipments exceeded 5.4 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60%, with a focus on high-end market strategies to improve product structure [3] Group 2 - The upcoming launch of the Xiaomi 17 Pro and ProMax, featuring a customizable back screen, is expected to be a significant catalyst for future sales, with pre-orders doubling compared to the previous generation [4] - The new retail model and the upcoming production of the Wuhan home appliance factory are anticipated to enhance Xiaomi's competitive advantage in the home appliance sector [3]