"连平三宝"走俏 文明集市，特色 风味俘获湾区味 蕾丨文明集市县 域行⑦_南方+_ 南方plus 冬日羊城暖意融 融，消费热潮持 续涌动。12月19 日至28日，文明 集市促消费系列 活动在广州北京 路商圈火热举 办。河源连平展 位前人潮涌动， 以"连平三 宝"——鹰嘴蜜 桃、花生、火蒜 为代表的系列产 品受到广泛关 注，尽显地方特 色魅力。 此次参展，连平 县国集食品供应 链有限公司精心 挑选了三十多种 优质农产品，涵 盖茶叶、蜂蜜、 点心、干货等多 个品类，而最受 瞩目的当属"连 平三宝" 。 "这个花生不仅 好看，吃起来也 特别香脆，我买 了两包准备过年 招待客人。"市 民陈女士对七彩 花生的品质非常 认可。"七彩花 生富含花青素， 口感清甜、油脂 含量低，我们已 经补了好几次货 了！"公司负责 人周科高兴地 说。 "现在不是鹰嘴 蜜桃的季节，但 我们带来了鹰嘴 蜜桃点心，也非 常有特色。"周 科介绍，该款点 心将鹰嘴桃的清 甜风味融入酥软 糕点中，果香浓 郁、口感细腻， 一经亮相便收获 无数好评，成为 展位的"爆款单 品"。此外，颗 粒饱满、风味独 特的连平火蒜也 凭借优良品质广 受青睐。 位工作人员 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds showed significant gains, with canola futures performing strongly, reaching 5,580.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.84% [1] - As of December 24, the C&F price for Canadian canola (January shipment) was 505 USD/ton, down by 2 USD/ton from the previous trading day, while the March shipment price was 510 USD/ton, down by 5 USD/ton [1] - The European Commission reported that as of December 21, the total canola imports for the EU for the 2025/26 season (starting in July) amounted to 1.72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41% [1] Group 2 - According to customs statistics, China's canola imports for November 2025 were 1,998.30 tons, reflecting a dramatic year-on-year decline of 99.72% [1]

Core Insights - The commodity market in 2025 is characterized as a "structural bull market," with significant annual gains in gold and silver, while oil prices face pressure due to supply-demand dynamics [1] - Goldman Sachs' 2026 Commodity Outlook indicates a trend towards "increasing differentiation" in the commodity market, with overall returns expected to moderate but significant disparities among different commodities [1][2] - Key factors influencing the market include the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, the competition in AI, and dual supply shocks in the energy market [1][2] Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their strong performance into 2026, with gold prices projected to reach $4,900 per ounce and silver between $50-$60 per ounce [3][6] - Industrial metals like copper are forecasted to maintain a strong price trajectory, with potential average prices between $11,400 and $12,075 per ton, driven by demand from technology and energy transitions [6][8] - The oil market is anticipated to face downward pressure, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 respectively in 2026, reflecting a supply surplus [8] Economic and Policy Context - The shift from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal expansion + accelerated de-globalization" has highlighted the value of physical assets, creating structural opportunities in commodities [2] - The expected continuation of a loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is seen as a catalyst for increased investment in commodities, as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding these assets [2] Market Dynamics - The energy market is expected to experience significant changes due to supply shocks in both oil and LNG, impacting pricing and availability [1][8] - The agricultural market's performance in 2026 is uncertain, with potential impacts from climate anomalies and trade policy changes affecting supply and demand dynamics [8] Strategic Focus - The 2026 commodity market will require a nuanced approach, moving away from a one-size-fits-all investment strategy to focus on structural opportunities influenced by geopolitical and technological factors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The event marks a collaborative effort between local government, social enterprises, and public welfare platforms to implement the rural revitalization strategy, exploring a beneficial model of "public welfare + brand + industry" integration [3][19]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Duhau Youpin" launch ceremony and the "Xiaohonghua Hometown Public Welfare" initiative took place in Huichang County, featuring notable attendees from various governmental and social organizations [1][4]. - The event included the introduction of high-quality agricultural products and cultural tourism resources from Huichang, aiming to promote local products and attract visitors [4][10]. Group 2: Key Messages from Speakers - Summer Gengsheng emphasized the importance of brand building and the development of "Duhau" products and standards to enhance quality and cultural value, while promoting deep integration of agriculture with tourism, health, and e-commerce [3][4]. - Ma Zhongsheng highlighted the role of the China Social Welfare Foundation in resource integration and collaboration with local entities to revitalize the red old area and realize the vision of rural revitalization through public welfare [4][19]. Group 3: Product Promotion - The event showcased a variety of local products, including Huichang zinc rice, 6% oranges, Jiangxi rice noodles, and more, emphasizing their unique qualities and health benefits [8][10]. - The "Duhau Youpin" series aimed to present the distinctiveness of Huichang's agricultural offerings, with a focus on quality and traditional production methods [8][10]. Group 4: Tourism Promotion - The event featured a segment on Huichang's local cuisine and new tourism routes for 2026, inviting visitors to experience the region's natural and cultural attractions [10][12]. - The promotion of local delicacies and tourism routes aims to enhance the visibility of Huichang and attract more tourists [10][19]. Group 5: Community Engagement - The launch of the "Xiaohonghua" initiative symbolizes a sustainable public welfare model connecting urban and rural areas, encouraging community participation [12][14]. - Representatives from Tencent Public Welfare discussed their commitment to supporting local public welfare initiatives, emphasizing the importance of social responsibility [14][19]. Group 6: Economic Impact - The event is seen as a significant step in Huichang County's rural revitalization efforts, with the "Duhau" brand generating sales of 9.65 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [19].

Core Insights - Azerbaijan's non-oil and gas product exports reached $3.3 billion from January to November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [1] Export Performance - Agricultural product exports amounted to $890 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 27.1% [1] - Industrial agricultural product exports totaled $290 million, with a modest year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] Notable Growth Areas - Exports of fruits and vegetables increased by 28.6% [1] - Sugar exports surged by 52.4% [1] - Exports of aluminum and aluminum products grew by 16.8% [1] - Chemical product exports rose by 13.9% [1] - Cotton yarn exports experienced a growth of 13.3% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, oils and by - products maintain a volatile trend, soft commodities like sugar have small - scale fluctuations, cotton is strongly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly consolidating with a bullish bias [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly by selling options, as well as spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The futures prices of various agricultural products have different changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,077, up 1 (0.02%); soybean meal (M2603) is 3,006, down 1 (- 0.03%); and egg (JD2602) is 2,947, up 66 (2.29%) [3]. - The trading volume and open interest of different varieties also vary. For instance, the trading volume of soybean meal (M2603) is 16.79 million lots, an increase of 3.16 million lots; the open interest of corn (C2603) is 98.67 million lots, a decrease of 0.07 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - The quantity and position PCR of different option varieties show different trends. For example, the quantity PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.65, down 0.28; the position PCR is 1.06, down 0.03 [4]. - Quantity PCR is mainly used to describe whether the underlying asset's market has a turning point, while position PCR is used to describe the strength of the underlying asset's market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are different. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200, and the support level is 4,000; the pressure level of soybean meal is 3,100, and the support level is 3,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties also varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.88%, and the weighted implied volatility is 11.60%, up 0.19% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions - **Oils and Oilseeds Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: The uncertainty of China's demand for US soybeans and the expected Brazilian harvest in early 2026 put pressure on the soybean market. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price of coastal 43% protein soybean meal has decreased. The market may continue to be under pressure, but the demand is expected to increase. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: High production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. The price may rise if there is a successful production cut in the first quarter. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The trading volume has increased, and the prices in different regions have different trends. The option strategy includes a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **By - product Options**: - **Pig**: The spot price has rebounded, and the futures curve has changed to a contango structure. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The存栏 of laying hens is expected to decrease. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The sales in different regions are different. The option strategy includes constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The market price is stable, and the trading volume has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options**: - **Sugar**: The new sugar - making season has increased production, but there are also factors such as import restrictions. The option strategy includes constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The inspection volume of new - season cotton has increased, and the downstream operating rate has decreased. The option strategy includes constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a neutral short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Grain Options**: - **Corn**: The supply pressure may increase before the Spring Festival. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given reports regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views 粕类产业 - The US soybean market has support at the bottom due to ongoing exports, but the strong expectation of a bumper harvest in South America restricts the upside potential. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose supply - demand situation, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers [1]. 生猪产业 - Spot prices are slightly stronger. The demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased, and the slaughter cycle is extended. The market shows a short - term trend of being slightly stronger in a volatile manner [2]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil may enter the production - reduction season, with exports improving, providing support to the market. Soybean oil has potential support from increased bio - diesel production due to tax credits, and the domestic demand may increase. Rapeseed oil's focus is on whether the 05 contract can break through the 9000 - yuan resistance [4]. 玉米 industry - The supply of corn is affected by weather in the Northeast and the selling rhythm in the North China. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. The market shows a short - term weak and volatile pattern with limited downside [5]. 红枣 industry - The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market arrival is less than in previous years. The hedging profit is negative, and the future trend depends on the consumption situation [8]. 白糖 industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are in a short - term rebound, but the overall supply outlook is loose, keeping the trend bearish. The domestic sugar market has stopped falling and is rebounding, but the rebound is limited by supply pressure [10]. 棉花 industry - ICE cotton futures are rising slightly due to weak dollar and strong export demand. The domestic cotton supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - The supply of laying hens is gradually decreasing, and the demand is expected to improve during the New Year and Spring Festival. However, the overall supply - demand contradiction is only marginally alleviated, and the near - term contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [14]. 苹果 industry - The market consumption has slightly improved during the festival, but the apple market is squeezed by citrus fruits. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm, and long positions are advised to exit at an appropriate time [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 3100 yuan/ton, M2605 futures price is 2728 yuan/ton; Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2420 yuan/ton, RM2605 futures price is 2344 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread is - 122, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread is - 56, and the oil - meal ratio shows an increase [1]. 生猪产业 - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 15 yuan/ton, the price of Niu Zhu 2605 is 11985 yuan/ton, and the price of Sheng Zhu 2603 is 11480 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot**: The average spot price in various regions shows a slight increase, and the sample - point slaughter volume has increased by 0.16% [2]. 油脂 industry - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan/ton, Y2605 futures price is 7992 yuan/ton; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8470 yuan/ton, P2605 futures price is 8486 yuan/ton; the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9560 yuan/ton, OI605 futures price is 9302 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread is 64, the palm oil 05 - 09 spread is 124, and the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread is 42 [4]. 玉米 industry - **Prices**: The price of Yu Mi 2603 is 2196 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FOB price is 2280 yuan/ton; the price of Yu Mi Dian Fen 2603 is 2494 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The corn 3 - 5 spread is - 35, the corn starch 3 - 5 spread is - 44 [5]. 红枣 industry - **Prices**: The price of Hong Zao 2601 is 8800 yuan/ton, the price of Hong Zao 2605 (main contract) is 8890 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of red dates is - 90, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 245 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures**: The price of Bai Tang 2601 is 5392 yuan/ton, the price of Bai Tang 2605 is 5262 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract price is 15.30 cents/pound [10]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price is 5340 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price is 5240 yuan/ton [10]. 棉花 industry - **Futures**: The price of Mian Hua 2605 is 14180 yuan/ton, the price of Mian Hua 2601 is 14210 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract price is 64.20 cents/pound [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15081 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B is 15271 yuan/ton [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ji Dan 01 contract is 3027 yuan/500KG, the price of Ji Dan 02 contract is 2947 yuan/500KG, and the egg - producing area price is 2.89 yuan/jin [14]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 2 spread of eggs is 125 [14]. 苹果 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ping Guo 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 991 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of apples is 473, and the 5 - 10 spread is 1022 [16].

Group 1 - The best performing assets this year are not A-shares or Hong Kong/US stocks, but rather precious metals like gold and silver, as well as base metals like copper and lithium, which have surged under the expectation of interest rate cuts [1] - Silver LOF has doubled in value within a month, indicating strong interest and investment in this sector, although some investors are only using it for short-term trading [1] - The overall trend in commodities has led to significant gains, with many index funds related to these commodities experiencing substantial increases [5] Group 2 - Investors are advised to avoid stock trading unless they are highly skilled, as trading ETFs is generally easier and less risky, provided that entry points are carefully considered [3] - The strategy for investing in ETFs involves waiting for significant market corrections, with a threshold of a 70% drop in industry indices before entering positions [3] - Commodities are being actively traded through index funds, which are less risky than individual stocks due to their lack of leverage and direct correlation to physical assets [5] Group 3 - The current bull market in commodities has led to collective price surges, with many index funds reaching their limits, indicating a strong upward trend [5] - Investment strategies differ based on market conditions, with high positions being used for short-term trading and low positions for long-term investments [7] - The nature of index funds makes them less volatile compared to individual stocks, providing a more stable investment option [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated December 25, 2025, and is from the agricultural products team of the research center [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 3. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, the spot market shows a differentiated trend with port prices falling and产区 prices rising. The supply pressure may shift later due to middle - men hoarding. In the long - term, if downstream demand weakens seasonally and hoarded grains are released, prices may fall [3] - **Starch**: In the short - term, supported by seasonal consumption, prices are expected to be stable. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3] - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4][5] - **Cotton**: With low initial inventory offsetting most of the output increase, future demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, making it suitable for long - term investment [6] - **Eggs**: The存栏 has reached an inflection point but the base is still high. The speed of存栏 decline depends on the chicken culling rate. Accelerated culling will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [8] - **Apples**: The trading atmosphere in the产区 is light, and the sales in the sales area are slow. The market may show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [15] - **Pigs**: After the end of winter solstice stocking and southern curing, the slaughter pressure increases. There may be short - term supply - demand mismatches before the Spring Festival, and the long - term market improvement depends on further production and inventory reduction [15] 4. Data Summary Corn/Starch | Product | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | Changchun | 2160 | 2160 | 0 | | | Jinzhou | 2240 | 2230 | - 10 | | | Weifang | 2250 | 2250 | 0 | | | Shekou | 2410 | 2390 | - 20 | | Starch | Heilongjiang | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | [2] Sugar | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Liuzhou | 5390 | 5420 | 30 | | Nanning | 5270 | 5340 | 70 | | Kunming | 5220 | 5240 | 20 | [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn | Product | Index | Value on 2025/12/18 | Value on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 3128 | 14750 | 14910 | 160 | | | Imported M - grade US cotton | 72.9 | | | | | CotlookA(FE) | 73.3 | | | | | Import profit | 2022 | | | | | Warehouse receipts + Forecast | 7568 | 8192 | 624 | | Cotton Yarn | Vietnamese yarn spot | 2.53 | 2.53 | 0 | | | Vietnamese yarn import profit | 542 | 893 | 351 | | | 32S spinning profit | - 492 | - 345 | 147 | [6] Eggs | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hebei | 3.02 | 2.89 | - 0.13 | | Liaoning | 2.96 | 2.82 | - 0.14 | | Shandong | 3.05 | 2.80 | - 0.25 | | Henan | 3.00 | 2.80 | - 0.20 | | Hubei | 3.16 | 3.18 | 0.02 | [8] Apples | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong 80 first and second - grade | 8900 | 8900 | 0 | | Shaanxi 70 general | 4 | 4 | 0 | [14] Pigs | Location | Price on 2025/12/18 | Price on 2025/12/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Henan Kaifeng | 11.83 | 11.73 | - 0.1 | | Hubei Xiangyang | 11.70 | 11.60 | - 0.1 | | Shandong Linyi | 11.77 | 11.92 | 0.15 | | Anhui Hefei | 12.45 | 12.15 | - 0.3 | | Jiangsu Nantong | 12.40 | 12.20 | - 0.2 | [15]

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 农产品早报 2025-12-25 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆收涨，受逢低买盘支撑，上方也面临美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期压力。周三国内豆粕 现货稳定，成交尚可，提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 213.06 万吨，上周压榨大豆 212.06 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.23 环比上升 0.1 天，上周港口大豆大幅去库 50 万吨，不过豆粕库存因压 榨量较大有所升高，豆粕库存同比增加约 55 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也处于正常水平，不过阿根廷最大主 产区布宜诺斯艾利斯省降雨偏少，需持续关注其天气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不 足以 ...