Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges in the photovoltaic glass market due to increased competition and supply-demand imbalances, leading to a substantial decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024 [4][5][29]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company's revenue was approximately RMB 18.683 billion, a decrease of 13.20% compared to RMB 21.524 billion in the previous fiscal year [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was RMB 1.007 billion, down 63.53% from RMB 2.759 billion in the previous year [5][29]. - The company plans not to distribute profits for the fiscal year 2024, opting to reinvest retained earnings into ongoing projects [12][29]. Group 2: Shareholder Meeting and Governance - The 2024 Annual General Meeting is scheduled for June 16, 2025, where various proposals will be presented for shareholder approval, including the financial report and the election of board members [3][4]. - The board has been actively engaged in decision-making and has conducted regular meetings to ensure compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [11][20]. - The company has established a comprehensive internal control system to mitigate operational risks and ensure compliance with laws and regulations [15][23]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and market expansion through strategic initiatives, including the development of new products and technologies [17]. - A proposal to apply for a comprehensive credit limit of up to RMB 28 billion from financial institutions for 2025 has been put forward to support daily operations and growth [37]. - The board emphasizes the importance of maintaining shareholder value and long-term interests through prudent financial management and strategic investments [29].

Core Insights - The glass industry is experiencing a significant increase in inventory levels, prompting companies to consider production strategies despite potential losses [1] - There is a discussion on whether now is the right time to invest in glass stocks, given the current market conditions and inventory challenges [1] Industry Analysis - Inventory levels in the glass sector have risen sharply, indicating a potential oversupply situation [1] - Companies in the glass industry are opting to maintain production even at a loss, suggesting a strategic decision to keep market presence and avoid shutting down operations [1] Investment Considerations - The current market conditions raise questions about the viability of entering the glass market for investment purposes, with analysts weighing the risks and potential rewards [1]

Report 1: Natural Rubber Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In the context of expected increase in supply and weakening demand, it is predicted that the subsequent rubber price will show a weakening and fluctuating trend. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the performance at the 13,000 level, as well as the raw material volume in the producing areas and macro - event disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 13,350 yuan/ton on June 3 to 13,400 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.37% [1]. - The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased from - 100 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 255 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton or 155.00% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 810 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 832 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 3.09% [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's natural rubber production decreased from 149.2 ten - tons to 105.7 ten - tons, a decrease of 43.5 ten - tons or 29.16% [1]. - In April, China's natural rubber production increased from 15.8 ten - tons to 58.1 ten - tons, an increase of 42.3 ten - tons [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased from 614,189 tons on the previous day to 614,584 tons, an increase of 385 tons or 0.06% [1]. - The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased from 43,544 tons to 17,641 tons, a decrease of 25,903 tons or 59.49% [1]. Report 2: Glass and Soda Ash Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Glass: It will continue to be under pressure, fluctuate weakly, and should be treated bearishly [2]. - Soda Ash: The spot market is average, the market sentiment is still pessimistic. In the short - term, during the rainy season, the glass price may stop falling. For the 09 contract, a long - short spread trade between the 7th and 9th contracts can be considered, and short - term short - selling operations on the far - month contracts during rebounds are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The central China glass price decreased from 1,110 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or 3.60% [2]. - The basis of the glass 2505 contract decreased from 91 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 31.87% [2]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The soda ash 2509 contract price increased from 1,185 yuan/ton to 1,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton or 3.28% [2]. - The basis of the 05 contract decreased from 197 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton or 13.97% [2]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output increased from 67.77 tons to 68.50 tons, an increase of 0.73 tons or 1.08% [2]. - Float glass daily melting volume increased from 15.67 tons to 15.77 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.64% [2]. Inventory - Soda ash 2505 contract inventory increased from 1,221 tons to 1,253 tons, an increase of 32 tons or 2.62% [2]. - Glass factory inventory decreased from 6,776.90 ten - thousand standard boxes to 6,776.20 ten - thousand standard boxes, a decrease of 0.7 ten - thousand standard boxes [2]. Report 3: Industrial Silicon Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The industrial silicon price is still under pressure due to high supply and high warehouse receipts in the fundamentals. Although demand may recover to some extent, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. However, rising raw material prices can strengthen cost support, and concentrated short - position closing may lead to a price increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon decreased from 8,200 yuan/ton on June 3 to 8,150 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.61% [3]. - The basis of SI4210 industrial silicon increased from 890 yuan/ton on June 3 to 980 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 90 yuan/ton or 10.11% [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2506 - 2507 spread decreased from 10 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 260 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton or 2700.00% [3]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased from 34.22 tons to 30.08 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons or 12.10% [3]. - In April, the Xinjiang industrial silicon production decreased from 21.08 tons to 16.75 tons, a decrease of 4.33 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased from 18.74 tons to 19.01 tons, an increase of 0.27 tons or 1.44% [3]. - Social inventory increased from 58.20 tons to 58.90 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons or 1.20% [3]. Report 4: Polysilicon Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In June, the polysilicon market is expected to remain in a situation of weak supply and demand. If there is no further production cut, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Currently, there is an expectation of supply - side contraction in the polysilicon industry. Attention should be paid to the support at the 33,000 - 34,000 range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The average price of single - crystal PERC battery slices (182mm) decreased from 0.285 yuan/piece on June 3 to 0.275 yuan/piece on June 4, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece or 3.51% [4]. - The N - type material basis (average price) decreased from 2,140 yuan/ton on June 3 to 1,445 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton or 32.48% [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract price increased from 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3 to 35,055 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 895 yuan/ton or 2.02% [4]. - The PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased from 1,940 yuan/ton on June 3 to 2,935 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 995 yuan/ton or 51.29% [4]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production increased from 13.3 GW to 13.4 GW, an increase of 0.1 GW or 0.75% [4]. - In May, polysilicon production increased from 9.54 tons to 9.61 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons or 0.73% [4]. Inventory Change - Polysilicon inventory increased from 26.00 tons to 27.00 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons or 3.85% [4]. - Silicon wafer inventory decreased from 18.95 GW to 18.57 GW, a decrease of 0.38 GW or 2.01% [4].

现货：沙河贸易商价格1105左右，成交一般，期现报价1140-1160，成交弱；湖北省内工厂低价1010左右，成交尚可；期现930-1000，成交一 般； 产销：沙河91，湖北116，华东97，华南112 | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/28 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/5/28 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 1260.0 | 1240.0 | 1260.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | SA05合 约 | 1260.0 | 1221.0 | 1253.0 | -7.0 | 32.0 | | 华中重碱 1240.0 | 1200.0 | 1225.0 | -15.0 | 25.0 | SA01合约 | 1207.0 | 1175.0 | 1216.0 | 9.0 | 41.0 | | 华南重碱 1570.0 | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Hainan Development plans to increase its stake in the company for the first time since the ownership change five years ago, aiming to boost market confidence and stabilize the stock price [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Hainan Development's controlling shareholder, Hainan Holdings, and its concerted parties plan to increase their shareholding by an amount not less than 100 million yuan and not exceeding 200 million yuan, representing up to 2% of the total share capital [1]. - The increase in shareholding is supported by a special loan from China CITIC Bank's Haikou branch, amounting to no more than 153 million yuan, with a loan term not exceeding 36 months [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Hainan Development's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was 3.616 billion yuan, 4.183 billion yuan, and 3.912 billion yuan, respectively, showing fluctuations [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years was -145 million yuan, 91.57 million yuan, and -379 million yuan, totaling a loss of 432 million yuan over three years [2]. - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the company's contract liabilities were 131 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.6% [2]. Group 3: Financial Position - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, Hainan Development had cash and cash equivalents of 808 million yuan, with short-term borrowings and current portion of non-current liabilities amounting to 592 million yuan and 83.99 million yuan, respectively [3]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio was 80.57%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the end of 2024 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand may decline, leading to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed. The futures market has already reflected this. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract after a rebound. - For glass, the supply may decrease in the future, and the demand is weak. After a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short the glass main contract. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 988 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 237 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - Soda ash main contract position: 1377454 lots, down 61412 lots; glass main contract position: 1444272 lots, down 117140 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net position: - 196915 lots, up 47021 lots; glass top 20 net position: - 206160 lots, up 5691 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 2062 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: 10 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 60 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - Soda ash basis: 50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; glass basis: 114 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. [2] Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1235 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash: 1350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - East China light soda ash: 1340 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China light soda ash: 1285 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - Shahe glass sheets: 1068 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 78.57%, down 0.06 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.63 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number: 225, up 2. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 162.43 tons, up 2.2 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6766.2 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 10.7 ten - thousand weight boxes. [2] Downstream Situation - Real estate new construction area cumulative value: 17835.84 ten - thousand square meters, up 4839.38 ten - thousand square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value: 15647.85 ten - thousand square meters, up 2587.58 ten - thousand square meters. [2] Industry News - Wang Yi met with new US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since last October. - Premier Li Qiang signed a State Council order to promulgate the Regulations on the Sharing of Government Affairs Data, which will come into force on August 1, 2025. - The All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce called on enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition mainly in the form of "price war". [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for glass futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 996.00 yuan, with a current price of 988.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.92% [1] - New Century Futures indicates that the glass market lacks upward momentum due to weak fundamentals, emphasizing the need to monitor the recovery of downstream demand [2] - New Lake Futures views the glass market as a short-selling opportunity, noting that the current inventory levels remain high and demand is weak, particularly as the market transitions from peak to off-peak season [3] Group 2 - The float glass industry operates at a capacity utilization rate of 78.62%, with a daily production of 15.75 million tons, marking a five-week high [2] - National float glass inventory decreased by 0.46% to 67.769 million heavy boxes, marking the first decline from a two-month high [2] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment phase, with housing completion area down by 28.2%, leading to a challenging environment for glass demand recovery [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The glass market shows different trends in prices and profits in various regions, with some prices declining and profit margins narrowing. The soda ash market also experiences price changes, and there is a significant reduction in factory inventories [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From May 27 to June 3, 2025, prices of most 5mm glass products in different regions decreased. For example, the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large - board dropped from 1147.0 to 1121.0, a decrease of 26.0; Shahe Great Wall 5mm large - board decreased from 1126.0 to 1096.0, a decrease of 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 contract price decreased from 1031.0 to 954.0, a decrease of 77.0; FG01 contract price decreased from 1084.0 to 1014.0, a decrease of 70.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: North China coal - fired profit decreased from 243.3 to 221.6, a decrease of 21.7; North China natural gas profit decreased from - 241.7 to - 263.4, a decrease of 21.7 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' price is around 1105, with average trading volume; Hubei's factory low - price is around 1010, with acceptable trading volume. Sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China are 79, 138, 98, and 112 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From May 27 to June 3, 2025, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1260.0 to 1240.0, a decrease of 20.0; Central China heavy soda decreased from 1240.0 to 1200.0, a decrease of 40.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price decreased from 1268.0 to 1221.0, a decrease of 47.0; SA01 contract price decreased from 1212.0 to 1175.0, a decrease of 37.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: North China ammonia - soda profit decreased from - 87.6 to - 117.0, a decrease of 29.4; North China combined - soda profit decreased from 39.7 to - 1.2, a decrease of 40.8 [1]. - **Spot and Inventory**: The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses is around 1210, and in Shahe warehouses is around 1230. Factory inventories have significantly decreased, and delivery inventories have slightly decreased [1].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the revenue and profit growth rate of the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] - The model uses the year-on-year changes in price and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability, but it relies heavily on the stability of the pricing mechanism and external factors like market demand[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the hog supply-demand gap six months ahead based on the breeding sow inventory and historical slaughter coefficients[15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] - The potential supply six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Breeding Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6, YoY)} $[15] - The potential demand six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, YoY)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upward cycles, making it a valuable tool for supply-demand analysis[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profit for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed profit analysis but is sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices and global demand[22] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability changes and generate allocation signals[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying short-term profitability trends but requires additional macroeconomic indicators for long-term predictions[30] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activities[31] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using variations in fuel and crude oil prices[31] - Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability but is highly dependent on volatile oil price movements[35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for June 2025 due to lower coal prices compared to the previous year[14] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Predicted a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply and demand both estimated at 18,226 million hogs[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a slight year-on-year profit decline for May 2025, with PMI rolling averages remaining flat[22] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year decline in gross profit for May 2025[30] - **Cement Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit growth for May 2025, driven by price recovery[30] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for May 2025 due to lower oil prices compared to the previous year[35] - **Oilfield Services**: Observed stable new drilling activity and lower oil prices compared to the previous year, maintaining a neutral outlook[38]

Core Viewpoint - The ultra-white glass industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by urbanization and renovation trends, with a projected market size increase from 5 billion yuan in 2018 to 18 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23.8% [1][16]. Industry Overview - Ultra-white glass, known for its high transparency and light transmittance of over 91.5%, significantly surpasses float glass's 86%, making it ideal for high-end applications in architecture, electronics, luxury vehicles, and solar energy [1][3]. - The industry is characterized by its unique properties, including low self-explosion rates, color consistency, and high visible light transmittance, which enhance its market appeal [5][6]. Industry Development History - The development of ultra-white glass began in the 1950s in developed countries, with significant advancements in production technology occurring in the 1960s and 1970s, leading to increased demand in the 1980s and 1990s due to urbanization and quality building requirements [8]. - The 21st century has seen ultra-white glass expand into high-tech industries, including solar energy and electronics, driven by growing environmental awareness and demand for energy-efficient products [8]. Industry Chain - The ultra-white glass industry chain includes raw material supply, production processing, product sales, and end-use applications, with upstream materials such as soda ash, quartz sand, and limestone being critical [10]. - The downstream applications encompass construction glass, photovoltaic glass, automotive glass, and electronic glass, indicating a comprehensive interdependence within the industry [10]. Market Dynamics - The ultra-white glass market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach 18 billion yuan by 2024, driven by technological innovations and policy support [1][16]. - The production of photovoltaic glass, a key application of ultra-white glass, is anticipated to increase from 5.6362 million tons in 2018 to 29.27 million tons by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.6% [13]. Key Companies - Major players in the ultra-white glass market include China Southern Glass Group, Fuyao Glass, and Flat Glass Group, which are leveraging technological advancements and competitive pricing strategies to capture market share [18][20][22]. - China Southern Glass Group is recognized as a leading brand in energy-saving glass and solar photovoltaic products, with projected revenue of 13.756 billion yuan in 2024 [20]. - Fuyao Glass has successfully localized photovoltaic glass production, achieving quality comparable to international leaders, with projected revenue of 16.816 billion yuan from photovoltaic glass in 2024 [22]. Future Trends - The ultra-white glass industry is expected to deepen its applications in energy-saving and environmentally friendly sectors, particularly in photovoltaic components and passive buildings [25]. - Innovations in smart interactive scenarios are anticipated, with ultra-white glass being integrated into smart home technologies and automotive displays, enhancing user experience and functionality [26].