【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 她与市场最大分歧在于，市场对2026年上半年减息步伐的预期过于"鸽派"。若普徕仕的宏观预测准确， 包括2025年第四季通胀重新加速及经济增长稳健，美联储将难以满足市场对明年进一步放宽政策的预 期，并可能在12月减息后暂停。 普徕仕提到，2026年下半年货币政策走向仍存在高度不确定性，这不仅取决于宏观数据走势，更要看下 一任美联储主席的政策取向。市场关注国家经济委员会主席Kevin Hasset 可能成为下任美联储主席的热 门人选，预期他将在2026年下半年推动更宽松的货币政策。 智通财经APP获悉，普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uru?i就即将举行的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会 议发表前瞻性分析，她基本预测：由于美联储的决策仅基于已公布的9月就业及通胀数据，以及个别高 频经济指标，预料12月议息会议将出现分歧。美联储今年可能再减息一次，同时暗示2 ...

保德信固定收益联席首席投资官Gregory Peters近日分享最新市场展望报告称，全球市场呈现出韧性与 脆弱性并存的格局。全球央行政策走向方面，报告认为，各国央行正谨慎放宽政策。美联储已重启降 息，但仍受制于居高不下的通胀以及市场对其政策公信力的担忧。欧洲央行同样面临两难抉择，需在不 均衡的经济增长与积极财政政策之间寻求平衡。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）保德信固定收益联席首席投资官Gregory Peters近日分享最新市场 展望报告称，全球市场呈现出韧性与脆弱性并存的格局。 具体来看，经济增长虽有所放缓，但并未陷入停滞，主要受结构性推动因素支撑；不过，周期性阻力仍 然存在。通胀依然高于目标水平，令美联储的政策方向更加复杂。人工智能投资热潮成为抵消消费疲软 的重要力量，然而劳动力市场停滞与关税推升成本，为后续经济前景增添了不确定性。 全球央行政策走向方面，报告认为，各国央行正谨慎放宽政策。美联储已重启降息，但仍受制于居高不 下的通胀以及市场对其政策公信力的担忧。欧洲央行同样面临两难抉择，需在不均衡的经济增长与积极 财政政策之间寻求平衡。 关于美元，报告认为，美元持续承压。美元过去曾受益于美国"例外论 ...

随着2025年接近尾声，华尔街又到了展望新一年的时刻，阿波罗全球管理公司（Apollo Global Management）的首席经济学家正密切关注市场和经济前景面临的几大关键风险。 在12月4日的报告中，阿波罗全球资本首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克（Torsten Sløk）带领的团队提出了 2026年投资者应重点关注的五大核心市场风险（包括上行和下行风险）。以下是他重点关注的内容： 1. 美国经济重拾增长动能 斯洛克近期表示，他认为2026年美国经济增长可能会再次加速，因为贸易战风险正在消退，而《大而美 法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act，简称OBBBA）有望提振需求。 这一情景下的风险在于，强劲的经济增长将催生新的通胀压力。物价若重新攀升，对市场而言将是不小 的麻烦——因为投资者的看涨逻辑核心是美联储持续降息，而如果通胀再度飙升，美联储降息的意愿将 会大幅下降。 斯洛克认为，市场对AI的乐观情绪可能被高估，2026年AI泡沫或将破裂。他表示，若出现这种情 况，"七巨头"（Magnificent 7）股票可能引发大幅市场回调，同时大型科技巨头的资本支出也会随之减 少。 5. 债券供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall landscape of the US Treasury market in 2025 is characterized by high macro debt pressure, increased phase volatility, and leading institutions breaking through against the trend, shaped by the interplay of macro debt constraints and micro-strategic competition [2] Debt Market Overview - As of November 2025, the US outstanding sovereign debt reached $30.2 trillion, marking a 0.7% increase from the previous month and the first time surpassing the $30 trillion mark, doubling since 2018 [3] - The total national debt rose to $38.4 trillion, with limited buffer space remaining before the statutory debt ceiling of $41.1 trillion [3] Underlying Logic of Debt Expansion - The long-term gap in government revenue and expenditure is identified as the core reason for the continuous accumulation of debt, significantly exacerbated by emergency borrowing during the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in $4.3 trillion in financing through Treasury issuance in a single year [6] - Despite a reduction in the fiscal deficit to $1.78 trillion in FY2025 due to tariff revenues, the cost of debt servicing has surged to a historical high of $1.2 trillion, far exceeding the incremental revenue from tariffs of $300-400 billion [6] Market Volatility Triggers - The US Treasury market experienced significant turbulence in April and May 2025, with external shocks testing institutional research capabilities, notably triggered by the "Liberation Day Tariff" introduced by the Trump administration [7][10] - Concerns about trade friction weakening foreign demand for US Treasuries intensified during this period [7] Pimco's Strategic Decisions - During market panic, Pimco increased the frequency of its investment committee meetings from three times a week to daily, accurately identifying that foreign investors were not broadly selling US Treasuries but managing dollar asset exposure through hedging tools [11] - Pimco maintained its existing positions and increased holdings in 5-10 year Treasuries and mortgage-related assets during the market fluctuations, while holding a bearish stance on long-term bonds [11] Performance Metrics - In 2025, Pimco Income Fund, the largest actively managed bond fund globally, achieved a return rate of 10.4%, ranking in the top 3 among over 300 similar products, marking its best annual return in a decade [12] - The fund's total return also saw a 9.1% increase, significantly outperforming the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index's 7.2% [12] Institutional Allocation Trends - The US Treasury market is expected to achieve its best annual performance since 2020, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift to a looser monetary policy, with two rate cuts anticipated within the year [15] - Pimco has begun to reduce its exposure to US interest rates and is reallocating towards debt markets in Japan, Australia, and the UK, reflecting a globalized investment strategy under macro pressure [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government has issued a plan to promote high-level institutional opening-up measures in free trade zones, focusing on financial technology development and international cooperation [1] Group 1: Financial Technology and Cross-Border Management - The plan aims to facilitate financial institutions in conducting cross-border asset management and provide domestic investment management and valuation services for overseas fund products [1] - It supports the exploration of digital RMB applications in trade scenarios within qualified free trade zones [1] Group 2: Support for Multinational Corporations and Insurance - The plan encourages multinational companies to establish fund management centers and explore integrated currency pool business under the national macro-prudential policy framework [1] - It also supports qualified insurance institutions in exploring international reinsurance business, allowing the use of RMB for reinsurance settlements [1] Group 3: Asset Management and Data Transmission - The plan includes research support for qualified asset management companies to conduct cross-border transfer of asset-backed securities, and to explore cross-border transfer of financing lease assets with RMB settlements in qualified free trade zones [1] - Financial institutions are permitted to transmit data necessary for daily operations abroad under the national data cross-border transmission security management framework, with regulatory measures in place to ensure the security of important data and personal information [1]

来源：津云 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 来源：津云 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 ...

美联储将于下周公布议息结果，安联环球投资公募市场首席投资总监Michael Krautzberger称，美联储内 部严重分歧下结果难料，预期将降息25个基点，但投票结果或将显示立场不一。虽然前景不明，但从美 联储近期声明、宏观数据及市场定价来看，降息25个基点可能性仍偏高。目前市场对12月降息的预期概 率接近9成，若届时选择按兵不动，将属重大意外，或引发市场波动，甚至触发资产价格短期回调。 《褐皮书》指劳工需求放缓，消费表现亦见参差。展望未来，在经济不陷入衰退的基本情境假设下， Michael Krautzberger维持预测：美联储将额外进行总共50个基点的"预防性"降息，令联邦基金目标利率 区间在2026年中降至3.25-3.5%，这轮温和宽松虽有助支持经济增长，并缓和下行风险，但仍低于市场 对终端利率低于3%的预期。 Michael Krautzberger认为，这次会议上储局官员更新的经济预测同样值得关注。9月的预测显示讯号互 相矛盾，即本地生产总值接近潜力水平、失业率逐步回落、通胀回归目标，但却同时预期将大幅降息。 当时点阵图呈现官员意见高度分歧，差距达125至150个基点，12月的预测或将重现类似 ...

Group 1 - Fullerton Fund Management, a subsidiary of Temasek Holdings, is gradually shutting down its private equity fund operations in China, including an 8-year-old hedge fund division [1] - The hedge fund division had recently stated that the Chinese stock market was becoming increasingly attractive for investors due to economic improvement, policy support, and appealing valuations [1] - The company has closed its Shanghai hedge fund division and most operations of another private equity fund, resulting in significant layoffs of onshore employees [1] Group 2 - Fullerton is part of the Seviora Group, an asset management company under Temasek, and plans to maintain its business presence in China [1] - Fullerton emphasized that China remains an important market for the company and is focusing resources on areas that best support its clients and investment portfolios [1] - According to the Asset Management Association of China, Fullerton Investment Management (Shanghai) was established in 2017 and manages assets of less than 500 million RMB, with a workforce of 5 full-time employees [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 13th China Responsible Investment Forum highlighted the rapid development of responsible investment in China, driven by dual carbon goals and green finance policies, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive evaluation system for asset management institutions' responsible investment capabilities [1][3][4]. Group 1: Responsible Investment Capability Assessment - The updated Responsible Investment Capability Evaluation System (RICE) was introduced to assess asset management institutions across six dimensions: strategy, management, products, climate, disclosure, and advocacy [3][8]. - Evaluation results indicate a disparity in responsible investment capabilities among public fund companies, with significant room for development; insurance asset management shows continuous improvement; and bank wealth management subsidiaries are in a steady transformation phase, needing to enhance the diversity and maturity of ESG products [3][8]. Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - The evaluation system proposes differentiated enhancement paths for various types of asset management institutions: public funds should balance short-term market performance with long-term sustainability, improve investor education and product design, and enhance the market appeal of ESG products; insurance asset management should leverage long-term funding advantages and integrate ESG factors into asset allocation; bank wealth management should design low-volatility ESG products to meet stable return demands [3][8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a call for further improvement in responsible investment capability assessments, innovation in green asset management products, and collaboration across financial sectors to promote long-term capital market entry, support technological innovation, and aid the development of green low-carbon industries [4][9]. - The expectation is that research in green finance, responsible investment, ESG investment, impact investing, blended finance, and charitable finance will effectively support the real economy, guide capital towards social responsibility, and promote sustainable development [4][9]. Group 4: ESG Rating Center Overview - The Sina Finance ESG Rating Center is the first Chinese platform for ESG professional information and ratings, dedicated to promoting sustainable development and responsible investment, and advancing the establishment of ESG evaluation standards in China [5][10]. - The center has launched multiple ESG innovation indices to provide investors with more options regarding corporate ESG performance and has established the China ESG Leaders Organization Forum to collaborate with leading ESG companies and partners [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council advocates the "Gold+" asset allocation concept to help investors overcome challenges in gold investment, emphasizing the importance of long-term strategic asset allocation rather than short-term speculation [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Investors face three main difficulties in gold investment: understanding, entry, and holding [3][4]. - The "understanding difficulty" arises from the complex factors influencing gold prices, leading many to treat gold as a speculative asset rather than a strategic one [3]. - The "entry difficulty" is characterized by hesitation over whether the current price is too high, causing investors to miss opportunities [4]. - The "holding difficulty" involves the challenge of maintaining long-term positions in gold amidst price fluctuations, with many investors selling during short-term volatility [4]. Group 2: "Gold+" Concept - The "Gold+" concept aims to shift investors from short-term speculation to long-term allocation, establishing gold as a strategic core asset [5][11]. - Two recommended allocation methods include indirect allocation through institutional investors and direct allocation by individuals at a reasonable proportion [5][6]. - Institutional investors, such as large asset management firms, have successfully integrated gold into their long-term strategic asset allocations, demonstrating its core value in stable investment portfolios [7][8]. Group 3: Practical Allocation Strategies - For individual investors, it is suggested to allocate 5%-15% of their total assets to gold, adjusting based on personal risk tolerance [6][12]. - Investors are encouraged to avoid high-frequency trading and instead consider gradual investments, such as dollar-cost averaging, to mitigate the impact of price volatility [12][13]. - The importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to gold investment is highlighted, with successful investors often being those who do not react impulsively to short-term price changes [11][13]. Group 4: Future Development of "Gold+" Products - The World Gold Council plans to promote the "Gold+" concept in China by enhancing supply and demand through industry communication and public education [14]. - The focus will be on demonstrating the strategic value of gold as a core asset in investment portfolios, aiming to shift perceptions away from short-term trading [14].