Group 1: Industry Overview - The Middle East is accelerating its natural gas development, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar expected to increase production by 60% and 44% respectively by 2030, driven by the development of large gas fields like Jafurah and North Field [1] - 80% of the natural gas supply in the Middle East is for regional economic demand, while 20% is for net exports, predominantly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar [1] - Natural gas is crucial for electricity generation in the region, accounting for 45% of domestic demand, with the remaining used for industrial and hydrogen applications [1] Group 2: Economic Growth and Demand - Major Middle Eastern countries are pursuing large-scale economic growth plans, with expected economic growth rates above 3% in the coming years, which will increase electricity supply demand and subsequently natural gas demand [1] - The Asia-Pacific region is the primary export market for Middle Eastern natural gas, with projected annual demand reaching 1186 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2030, a 32% increase from 2023, driven by significant growth in China and India [1] Group 3: Equipment and EPC Market - The natural gas industry encompasses the entire process from extraction to application, requiring various equipment such as compressors, valves, and turbines [2] - The Middle East and North Africa's oil and gas projects are projected to reach $101.2 billion in contracts in 2024, a 112% increase from 2022, with Chinese companies expected to see a 116.7% year-on-year increase in project contracts [2] - The demand for natural gas compressors is expected to remain high due to the expansion of natural gas extraction in the region, with specific types of compressors needed for different stages of the process [2] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies with established channel layouts and those positioned in capacity-constrained segments are likely to benefit significantly from the ongoing expansion in Middle Eastern natural gas production [3] - Recommended companies to watch include Jereh Group, Zhongtai Co., and Yingliu Co. [3]

市公司 公用事业 2025 年 12 月 01 日 气量毛差承压 自由现金流再创新高 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 11 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 8.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9130.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.85/5.97 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 468.54 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5.448.15 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9100 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 37% 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | 2023/24 | | 2024/25 | 2025/26E | 2026/27E | 2027/28E | | --- | ...

王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 站玩人行业 证券分析师 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 — 申万公用环保周报(25/11/24~25/11/28) 本期投资提示: 公用事亦 2025 年 12 月 01 日 相关研究 多地规范售电批零价差 欧亚 第12年 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：广东发函规范售电批零价差。广东电力交易中心发布关于征求广东电力零售市场交易结算 有关事项意见的函（广东交易函〔2025〕11 号)。自 2026 年起，拟对各售电公司月度平均度电 批零差价高于差价收益上限 0.01 元/千瓦时的部分，按照 1:9 比例由售电公司与零售用户分享。今 年以陕西、安徽、四川、山东、新疆为代表的多个省区相继出台针对售电公 ...

天然气管道工程穿越大漠戈壁。陈士兵 摄 近年来，塔里木油田在向西气东输平稳供气的同时，加大天然气勘探开发力度，加快"气化南疆"步伐， 天然气保供能力不断增强，已在南疆建成超5200公里主干天然气管网，累计供气超700亿立方米，为南 疆经济社会高质量发展作出重要贡献。(完) 中新网乌鲁木齐12月1日电 (王成凯)全长378公里的气化南疆天然气管道工程——英买力至三岔天然气管 道(简称"英三线")11月30日全线投产。来自塔里木油田的清洁天然气穿越戈壁山峦，直抵天山南麓五县 市千家万户。 作为气化南疆天然气管道工程第一批项目中工程量最大、里程最长的管道，英三线于今年3月10日打火 开焊，东起阿克苏地区英买力输气站，西至喀什地区三岔分输站，沿途新建11座阀室和分输站，扩建3 座天然气站场，将克拉、克深等大中型气田和沿途县市紧紧连在一起。 英三线每日最大供气能力达720万立方米，与已建南疆利民天然气管道形成"双线"供气格局，极大缓解 周边县市供气紧张局面，对冬季保供、民生改善和推动地方经济社会发展具有重大意义。 气化南疆 气化南疆天然气管道工程规划全长2108公里，计划分三批次实施。待后续轮南至上库高新技术产业开发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the comprehensive efforts in Inner Mongolia to ensure natural gas supply during the winter heating season, emphasizing the collaboration among various oil and gas companies and the implementation of emergency response mechanisms to maintain energy security [2][5][9]. Group 1: Emergency Response and Supply Assurance - An emergency drill for natural gas supply was conducted in Inner Mongolia, simulating a reduction in gas supply and testing the emergency response capabilities of the gas supply system [2]. - The region is entering a critical period for energy supply as it prepares for the winter heating season, with a focus on coordinated efforts among gas companies to ensure sufficient supply [2][5]. Group 2: Production and Capacity - The Longqing Oilfield's gas production is operating efficiently, with a daily output exceeding 24 million cubic meters, and a target to complete the production of 80 new wells [3]. - Sinopec's North China Oil and Gas Company has produced 232 million cubic meters of natural gas since November 1, marking a 16.5% year-on-year increase, with a daily capacity of 13.7 million cubic meters [5]. Group 3: Storage and Preparedness - Gas storage facilities in the region have completed their annual injection tasks, ensuring adequate reserves for the winter heating peak [6]. - The Su Dong 39-61 gas storage facility has begun its fourth cycle of gas extraction, with a total storage capacity of 750 million cubic meters, marking a new high for annual reserves [8]. Group 4: Transportation and Distribution - Key companies like Western Gas and New Saint Gas are actively ensuring the stability of gas supply to end-users, with Western Gas conducting practical drills to strengthen supply foundations [9]. - The energy bureau in Ordos is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics, with major oil and gas companies achieving a cumulative production of 26.455 billion cubic meters of natural gas from January to October, fulfilling 83.9% of the annual target [9].

多国能源领袖均警示，过去12年石油行业投资仅为需求的一半，2026年新增产能有限，长期投资不足可 能导致石油供应出现缺口。 同时，天然气领域迎来定位重塑。贝克休斯集团首席执行官洛伦佐·西蒙内利提出天然气应从"过渡燃 料"转变为"目标燃料"。天然气出口国论坛秘书长穆罕默德·哈梅尔表示，未来五年新增产能将带来天然 气价格下行压力，但也将刺激亚洲等价格敏感市场的需求增长，尤其在交通和航运领域。日本东京燃气 代表指出，欧亚市场已形成"竞争与互补并存"的LNG贸易新格局。印度GAIL集团负责人则预测，地缘 局势缓和后印度LNG进口份额将从全球占比5%~6%翻倍增长。 同期在迪拜举办的Dii沙漠能源峰会则聚焦中东和北非地区净零能源发展。国际能源署(IEA)预测，2030 年前全球太阳能、风能和水电装机容量将翻倍，当前低碳能源投资已达化石能源的两倍，且差距持续扩 大。会议发布报告指出，中东地区凭借低成本可再生能源、充足的土地资源和灵活的政策环境，有望成 为"可持续数据中心"核心枢纽。沙特NEOM未来城、阿曼塞拉莱自贸区、阿布扎比美阿人工智能园区等 已启动相关布局，计划通过可再生能源与低碳氢结合，实现数据中心分阶段脱碳，打造 ...

公司公布1HFY26业绩 1HFY26公司收入345亿港元，归母净利润13.3亿港元，天然气零售量91.9亿方，其中工业气量48.9亿 方，商业气量15.5亿方，零售气毛差0.58元/方;新增居民接驳67.6万户;增值业务经营性利润10亿港元， 同比基本持平。自由现金流方面，1HFY25公司自由现金流26亿港元，YoY+3.8亿港元，主因公司完成 部分低效资产处置，1HFY26公司投资性现金流出同比减少9.4亿港元至-5.2亿港元。 2HFY26气量增速或迎边际改善 向前看，考虑到2025/2026采暖季气温或有望恢复常态，管理层指引2HFY26气量增速出现修复，全年气 量同比增速有望修复至+0-2%。毛差方面，基于居民顺价比例提升，公司维持全年毛差0.55元/方 (YoY+0.01元/方)指引不变。 中金发布研报称，考虑到中国燃气(00384)现金流情况向好，股息分配有望维持稳定，1HFY26公司拟派 发中期股息0.15港元/股，同比持平。维持跑赢行业评级和10港元目标价，对应FY26/FY2718.4x/17.3x P/E(5%股息收益率)，较当前股价有16.3%的上行空间。当前股价对应FY26/FY27 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural gas industry in northern China is facing significant challenges during the winter heating season, with price volatility and supply-demand changes prompting companies to seek effective risk management tools to stabilize operations [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Challenges - The pressure on gas supply companies is exacerbated by the need to balance supply responsibilities with the financial realities of selling gas at government-mandated prices, leading to substantial losses during extreme weather conditions [2] - Industrial users, such as a large glass manufacturing company, are also struggling with energy cost control, as sudden price fluctuations can severely impact quarterly profits [2] Group 2: Structural Issues in the Market - China's high dependence on natural gas imports makes it vulnerable to international price fluctuations, and the transmission mechanism of these prices to the domestic market is distorted [3] - The lack of a stable pricing benchmark and developed futures market for natural gas in China limits the ability of downstream users to hedge against price risks [3] Group 3: Innovations in Risk Management - The introduction of LNG risk management tools by domestic oil and gas trading centers is a response to these challenges, allowing companies to lock in LNG prices during off-peak seasons [3][4] - The LNG procurement model, such as the one introduced by Tianjin International Oil and Gas Trading Center, enables companies to purchase LNG according to their needs and adjust flexibly in response to market changes [3] Group 4: Development of Pricing Indices - The establishment of the Zhejiang LNG Price Index enhances China's influence in the global natural gas market and improves resource allocation capabilities [4] - National-level initiatives are underway to promote natural gas futures trading, signaling a move towards a comprehensive risk management market [4] Group 5: Future of LNG Futures - The introduction of LNG futures is seen as a crucial step in establishing a pricing center for natural gas in Asia and enhancing China's role in global energy governance [5] - Futures prices provide a transparent forward price curve that can guide better decision-making across the industry and improve risk management capabilities [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Industry**: Metals and Mining, Technology, Logistics, and Transportation - **Companies**: Huaxi Group, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Zhongcai Technology, ZTO Express, Southern Airlines, Yara International, Senqilin, Chuan Investment Energy, Honglu Steel Structure, Sichuan Road and Bridge, Electric Power Investment Energy Core Insights and Arguments Huaxi Nonferrous Metals - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to export expectations, with domestic prices increasing from 150,000 to 170,000 CNY, and potential to reach 250,000 CNY again [1][2][3] - Long-term outlook for tin suggests a trend similar to rare earths, with anticipated export controls and industry consolidation led by Huaxi Group [2][3] - Significant destocking of tin is expected in 2025, driven by semiconductor recovery, with solder demand accounting for half of tin consumption [1][2] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals is in an expansion phase, increasing its capacity from 4,000 tons to 6,000 tons, with further potential for price and valuation increases [1][3] Zhongcai Technology - The company is expected to achieve over 90% capacity utilization in its separator business in Q4, with significant profit potential from price increases [1][4] - AI business is showing stable growth, with demand for Q fabric expected to exceed 10 million meters, leading to a projected total revenue of at least 3.5 billion CNY in 2026 [1][4] ZTO Express - ZTO Express is maintaining growth above the industry average despite a slowdown in the express delivery sector, benefiting from a shift in e-commerce demand towards high-quality service providers [1][6][8] - The company is expected to improve market share and profitability as low-cost competitors exit the market [8][9] Southern Airlines - The airline sector is recovering from previous demand weaknesses, with historical highs in passenger load factors, indicating a shift from weak to tight supply-demand balance [10][11] - The sector is expected to benefit from increased international demand and improved operational efficiencies [10][11] Yara International and Senqilin - Yara International is set to increase its production capacity significantly, supporting revenue growth from 2 billion to 6 billion CNY by 2027 [2][13] - Senqilin is expected to recover from tariff impacts, with projected revenues of 2.5 billion CNY in 2026, indicating potential for stock price doubling [2][14] Chuan Investment Energy - The company is currently undervalued, with significant potential for earnings improvement due to favorable water conditions and upcoming project completions [15] - Expected earnings increase of approximately 2 billion CNY from improved water conditions and project contributions [15] Honglu Steel Structure and Sichuan Road and Bridge - Honglu Steel Structure is recognized for its competitive edge in welding technology, indicating long-term growth potential [16] - Sichuan Road and Bridge is benefiting from large-scale infrastructure projects, with expectations for steady growth in orders and revenue [16] Electric Power Investment Energy - The company is projected to achieve 9 billion CNY in earnings due to asset injections and favorable market conditions for aluminum and coal [17][18] - Significant resource holdings provide a strong foundation for future growth [17][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The logistics sector is experiencing a transformation due to regulatory changes and rising operational costs, impacting low-cost e-commerce players [7] - The express delivery industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market dynamics shift post-regulatory interventions [9]

豪尔穆尔气田是库区电力生产的重要能源来源。库区政府自然资源部和电力部27日发表联合声明说，豪 尔穆尔气田26日晚遭无人机袭击，导致向该地区发电厂供气全部中断。 责编：陈菲扬、卢思宇 新华社巴格达11月30日电（记者段敏夫）伊拉克库尔德自治区（库区）政府电力部11月30日发表声明 说，此前遭袭的豪尔穆尔气田当天已恢复供气。 声明说，豪尔穆尔气田已于当天2时起恢复向电厂输送天然气，随着电厂重新运转，库区电力供应状况 将显著改善，并在24小时内完全恢复正常。 ...