笔者明确表示，尽管2月2日A股市场大跌，释放了一些短期风险，但当前的市场整体风格偏向防 御，资金从高波动、高估值的科技板块流向股息率高、现金流稳定的传统板块，也就是许多投资者眼中 的"老登"股。 当前市场震荡不断，与全球政治军事和经济的不确定性密切相关，虽然全球半导体周期处在复苏通 道，一些半导体公司去年业绩也相当不错，比如三星、英伟达等，但复苏力度和持续性目前尚难说乐 观，毕竟美国的政策不确定性太大，美国对委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛等国家和地区的政治主张，以及对伊朗 等中东地区的政治军事主张，再加上俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争也在持续，这个世界充满巨大的不确定性， 这会导致整个半导体板块整体估值承压。而在这样的大背景下，寒武纪作为半导体巨头，可能会受到冲 击。 2月3日，市场明星"寒王"（寒武纪，688256）股价突然跳水：截止笔者落笔之时，寒武纪股价猛跌 至1070元，跌幅超过13%。 此前一日，笔者才撰文表示，投资者如果此时抄底，可能会面临较大风险。一语成谶。 即便如此，也只能说它的发展目前比较顺利，开始到了收获果实的季节，但离投资者期望的目标， 应该还有相当长的一段距离，未来会如何，还充满着相当大的不确定性。而在一些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current semiconductor cycle is experiencing a price surge that is expanding from memory chips to non-memory sectors such as power chips and analog chips, driven by the explosive demand for AI computing power [1][2]. Group 1: Price Surge Dynamics - The price increase in memory chips is leading to a chain reaction across the semiconductor industry, affecting various segments including LED drivers, analog chips, power devices, and MCUs [2][4]. - Multiple A-share semiconductor companies have issued price increase notices, indicating a widespread trend of price hikes across the industry [1][2]. - The price adjustments range significantly, with some companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor increasing prices by 15% to 50% for certain products, while others have reported increases as high as 80% [3][4]. Group 2: Causes of Price Increases - The primary reasons for the price surge include a significant rise in costs across the entire supply chain, driven by increasing prices of raw materials and higher manufacturing costs due to price hikes from wafer foundries and packaging/testing services [4]. - The allocation of upstream capacity is increasingly focused on higher-margin products like memory chips, leading to a squeeze on traditional products such as analog chips and power semiconductors [4]. Group 3: Market Impact and Performance Outlook - The price surge is expected to lead to a recovery in performance for non-memory chip companies, with several firms already forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [5][6]. - For instance, Silan Microelectronics anticipates a net profit increase of 50% to 80% for 2025, while Zhongwei Semiconductor expects a revenue growth of 23.07% and a net profit increase of 107.55% [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that the return of pricing power due to supply-demand dynamics will benefit companies with strong market positions and pricing capabilities, particularly in segments tied to AI and new energy [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the stock price of Cambrian (寒武纪), highlighting the risks associated with investing in the current market environment, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is facing uncertainties due to global political and economic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant drop on February 2, leading to a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive stocks with stable cash flows, moving away from high-volatility tech stocks [2]. - Global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and economic policies, are impacting the semiconductor sector's recovery, with companies like Samsung and Nvidia showing strong past performance but facing uncertain future growth [2][3]. - Cambrian's stock price fell sharply, dropping over 13% to 1070 yuan, indicating a lack of confidence among investors regarding its future performance [1][4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Cambrian is projected to achieve significant milestones by 2025, with expected revenues between 6 billion to 7 billion yuan and net profits of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, marking its first annual profit [2]. - Despite these positive projections, Cambrian's performance is viewed as merely meeting expectations rather than exceeding them, suggesting that there is still a considerable distance to reach investor targets [3]. - The current market perception is that Cambrian's stock may have limited upside potential, prompting some investors to prioritize selling over holding [4].

1月15日，南下资金今日净卖出港股15.15亿港元。 净卖出中国移动7.91亿、小米集团-W 4.91亿、中国海洋石油3.65亿、中国平安2.71亿、晶泰控股1.17 亿。 | | 沪股通 | | | 深胶通 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 潔跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | 名称 | 潔跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交割 | | 阿里巴巴-W | -2.6% | 17.90 | 84.25 Z | 阿里巴巴-W | -2.6% | 1.86 | 44.51亿 | | 腾讯控股 | -1.7% | 6.63 | 33.70亿 | 腾讯控股 | -1.7% | -0.20 | 17.26亿 | | 中心国际 | 1.8% | 3.57 | 28.12亿 | 小米集团-W | 0.2% | -4.91 | 14.74亿 | | 量泵控股 | -10.7% | -1.88 | 25.91亿 | 中心 可际 | 1.8% | -1.76 | 13.37 亿 | | 抑胺控股 | 3.1% | 0.01 | 18 ...

港股半导体股集体拉升上涨，其中，华虹半导体涨超5%，晶门半导体、中芯国际涨2%，纳芯微涨 1.6%，兆易创新、中电华大科技、贝克微、英诺赛科皆油涨幅 值得一提的是，1月13日，据美国联邦公报显示，美国放宽了对英伟达H200芯片出口到中国的监管规 定。 消息上，国信证券最新研报指出，半导体景气超预期，多环节陆续提价，AI眼镜放量在即。继续推荐 周期复苏的模拟芯片企业纳芯微等，及晶圆代工企业中芯国际、华虹半导体等。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01347 | 华虹半导体 | 94.450 | 5.30% | | 01304 | FORTIOR | 132.600 | 4.08% | | 02203 | 脑洞科技 | 0.255 | 2.82% | | 02878 | 晶门半导体 | 0.475 | 2.15% | | 00981 | 中古国际 | 75.900 | 1.95% | | 09903 | 天数智芯 | 174.000 | 1.81% | | 02676 | 纳芯微 | 136.200 | 1.64% | | 03986 | ...

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes focusing on FAB and storage manufacturers that are expanding production and the recovery cycle of analog chips [3] - Longxin plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan, while SMIC Southern will receive a total cash contribution of 7.778 billion USD from shareholders [3] - Recommended companies include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Zhongwei Company, and others [3] Market Trends - Microchip CEO noted a broad recovery in multiple end markets, with initial orders for the new quarter significantly better than the same period last year [3] - The storage demand is driven by AI, with prices still in an upward cycle; TrendForce predicts a 55-60% increase in general DRAM contract prices for Q1 2026 [3][30] Company Performance - The semiconductor index rose by 4.47% in December 2025, underperforming the electronics sector by 0.69 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.19 percentage points [8] - Notable stock performances included Micron Technology (+20.74%) and Microchip Technology (+18.92%) [10] Semiconductor Sales Data - Global semiconductor sales reached 75.28 billion USD in November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.8% [26] - China’s semiconductor sales accounted for 26.9% of the global total, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [36] Price Trends in Storage - DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices increased in November, with DRAM prices rising from 7.00 USD to 8.10 USD and NAND Flash prices from 5.19 USD to 4.35 USD [30] - Predictions indicate a 55-60% increase in general DRAM contract prices and a 33-38% increase in NAND Flash prices for Q1 2026 [30][32]

2026年01月12日 证券研究报告 | 半导体1月投资策略： 关注FAB和存储大厂扩产链及周期复苏的模拟芯片 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 电子 · 半导体 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：胡剑 证券分析师：胡慧 证券分析师：张大为 证券分析师：詹浏洋 证券分析师：李书颖 S0980521080001 S0980521080002 S0980524100002 S0980524060001 S0980524090005 021-60893306 021-60871321 021-61761072 010-88005307 0755-81982362 hujian1@guosen.com.cn huhui2@guosen.com.cn zhangdawei1@guosen.com.cn zhanliuyang@guosen.com.cn lishuying@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 关注FAB和存储大厂扩产链及周期复苏的模拟芯片 l 12月SW半导体指数上涨4.47%，估值处于2019年以来80.92%分位 2025年12月SW半导体指数上涨4.47%，跑 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状 态。本公司对本报告所含信息可 在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或 修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者并不能 依靠本报告以取代 行使独立判断。对投资者依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均 不承担任何法律责任。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊 发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为 "华泰期货研究院"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意 的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权利。 所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Industry**: Metals and Mining, Technology, Logistics, and Transportation - **Companies**: Huaxi Group, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Zhongcai Technology, ZTO Express, Southern Airlines, Yara International, Senqilin, Chuan Investment Energy, Honglu Steel Structure, Sichuan Road and Bridge, Electric Power Investment Energy Core Insights and Arguments Huaxi Nonferrous Metals - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to export expectations, with domestic prices increasing from 150,000 to 170,000 CNY, and potential to reach 250,000 CNY again [1][2][3] - Long-term outlook for tin suggests a trend similar to rare earths, with anticipated export controls and industry consolidation led by Huaxi Group [2][3] - Significant destocking of tin is expected in 2025, driven by semiconductor recovery, with solder demand accounting for half of tin consumption [1][2] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals is in an expansion phase, increasing its capacity from 4,000 tons to 6,000 tons, with further potential for price and valuation increases [1][3] Zhongcai Technology - The company is expected to achieve over 90% capacity utilization in its separator business in Q4, with significant profit potential from price increases [1][4] - AI business is showing stable growth, with demand for Q fabric expected to exceed 10 million meters, leading to a projected total revenue of at least 3.5 billion CNY in 2026 [1][4] ZTO Express - ZTO Express is maintaining growth above the industry average despite a slowdown in the express delivery sector, benefiting from a shift in e-commerce demand towards high-quality service providers [1][6][8] - The company is expected to improve market share and profitability as low-cost competitors exit the market [8][9] Southern Airlines - The airline sector is recovering from previous demand weaknesses, with historical highs in passenger load factors, indicating a shift from weak to tight supply-demand balance [10][11] - The sector is expected to benefit from increased international demand and improved operational efficiencies [10][11] Yara International and Senqilin - Yara International is set to increase its production capacity significantly, supporting revenue growth from 2 billion to 6 billion CNY by 2027 [2][13] - Senqilin is expected to recover from tariff impacts, with projected revenues of 2.5 billion CNY in 2026, indicating potential for stock price doubling [2][14] Chuan Investment Energy - The company is currently undervalued, with significant potential for earnings improvement due to favorable water conditions and upcoming project completions [15] - Expected earnings increase of approximately 2 billion CNY from improved water conditions and project contributions [15] Honglu Steel Structure and Sichuan Road and Bridge - Honglu Steel Structure is recognized for its competitive edge in welding technology, indicating long-term growth potential [16] - Sichuan Road and Bridge is benefiting from large-scale infrastructure projects, with expectations for steady growth in orders and revenue [16] Electric Power Investment Energy - The company is projected to achieve 9 billion CNY in earnings due to asset injections and favorable market conditions for aluminum and coal [17][18] - Significant resource holdings provide a strong foundation for future growth [17][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The logistics sector is experiencing a transformation due to regulatory changes and rising operational costs, impacting low-cost e-commerce players [7] - The express delivery industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market dynamics shift post-regulatory interventions [9]

Group 1: Company Performance - Allwinner Technology reported a net profit increase of 781.58% year-on-year for the first three quarters, sparking significant interest among investors [1] - Jinghe Integration also saw a profit growth of 744.37% during the same period, indicating a broader trend of strong performance in the tech sector [1] - Over 80% of companies reported positive earnings forecasts during the third quarter reporting period, with capital flowing towards companies with confirmed performance [8] Group 2: Market Trends - The demand for AI servers has surged by 300%, contributing to the robust performance of the technology sector [8][18] - The PCB sector is benefiting from high-end board orders, which are already scheduled for production into the first quarter of 2026 due to increased demand from AI server needs [14][20] - The cooling agent and IoT sectors are experiencing unexpected performance boosts, with one cooling agent company reporting a profit increase of 300% due to rising overseas orders [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China has injected over 330 billion yuan into listed companies through repurchase and refinancing measures, reflecting a commitment to stabilize the stock market [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts have led to historical highs in U.S. stock indices, with the dollar index declining and commodity prices rising [5][6] - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with signs of stabilization in the real estate market as housing price declines continue to narrow [12] Group 4: Sector Developments - The human-shaped robot industry is transitioning from concept to mass production, with companies like Tesla planning large-scale production by 2026 [8][18] - The photovoltaic industry has seen a 40% year-on-year increase in installed capacity, with significant growth in AI server demand and commercial space technology [8][20] - The semiconductor equipment domestic production rate has risen to 35%, with core devices entering mass production lines [24]