Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has declined, leading to price drops. The core contradiction lies in the fact that steel mills' profits support high blast furnace operating rates, but terminal demand seasonally shrinks before the Spring Festival, resulting in light trading volume and increasing inventory. Cost provides support, and prices are unlikely to fall significantly under policy constraints, oscillating in the bottom range [3]. - The iron ore industry is in a supply - demand off - season with no prominent contradictions. Supported by steel mills' inventory replenishment and the recovery of hot metal production, the downside price space is limited [24]. - Affected by overseas supply disruptions, international coking coal prices are strong, and domestic Shanxi coal prices are also firm. The coking coal basis is at a relatively high level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be more volatile. In the long - term, the market will focus on the resumption of domestic coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [37]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. Silicon manganese is suppressed by high inventory, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better. In the short term, ferroalloys are expected to oscillate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [50]. - The temporary upsurge in commodity sentiment may drive up some undervalued varieties. If the futures prices rise, there is some room for mid - and downstream inventory replenishment, but demand is average with limited elasticity. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, photovoltaic glass inventory continues to accumulate, and the balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. High exports of soda ash alleviate domestic pressure to some extent, while high inventory in the upper and middle reaches restricts prices [64]. - Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual and expected demand are weak. In the context of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are still waiting for cold repair and ignition, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy may also disrupt supply. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3182 yuan/ton, 3099 yuan/ton, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3310 yuan/ton, 3265 yuan/ton, and 3286 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3311 yuan/ton, 3230 yuan/ton, 3140 yuan/ton respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3260 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton respectively [10][12]. Other Data - The 01 - 05 rebar spread was 82 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [4]. - The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 48 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 50 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [10][12]. - The 01 roll - rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton, and the roll - rebar spot spread in Shanghai was 30 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [17]. - The ratios of 01 rebar to 01 iron ore and 01 rebar to 01 coke were both 4 and 2 respectively on February 3, 2026 [21]. Iron Ore Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 749 yuan/ton, 777.5 yuan/ton, and 760 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Karara powder, and Rizhao Super Special powder were 786 yuan/ton, 886 yuan/ton, and 675 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Fundamental Data - On January 30, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 227.98 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons [31]. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the 09 - 01 coking coal spread was - 171.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 coke spread was - 93.5 yuan/ton [40]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1630 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [43]. Other Data - The on - site coking profit was - 24 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [40]. - The main coking coal to power coal ratio was 2.4035 on February 3, 2026 [43]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On February 3, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5450 yuan/ton [51]. Silicon Manganese - On February 3, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 194 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [52]. Other Data - The double - silicon spread was - 216 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [52]. Soda Ash Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1201 yuan/ton, 1265 yuan/ton, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively [65]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the heavy soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash market price was 1200 yuan/ton [65]. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of soda ash was - 64 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [65]. Glass Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1072 yuan/ton, 1176 yuan/ton, and 1230 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Spot Prices - Not provided in a comprehensive way in the given content. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of glass was - 104 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [89]. - On January 30, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of glass in Shahe was 102%, and in Hubei was 75% [90].

发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：冬储进入尾声 【行情分析】 焦煤日内低开高走，午后下跌。焦煤供应过剩格局显现，但春节临近，国 内矿山逐渐开启假期，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利 用率为 89.13%，环比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。进口煤及国 内生产边际减少，本期焦煤矿山库存去库，周度环比减少 7.17 万吨，上周焦化 企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万吨，冬储补库进程环比上周加快，距 离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将继续下沉，目前已接近尾声阶段，下 游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万 吨。焦炭一轮提涨落地，焦企利润回升，但钢厂利润减少，下一轮提涨预计难 度高，下游冬储虽仍在进行，但已进入收尾阶段，供需双弱，焦煤窄幅波动整 理，目前无政策支撑，整体驱动有限，偏弱震荡为主。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1027 元/吨，较上个交易日+3 元/吨。 基差方面： ...

Core Viewpoint - The current spring market rally is not yet over, despite recent pullbacks in A-shares, with the index returning to around 4000 points. The analysis suggests that the market is likely to continue its upward trend due to ongoing economic recovery and supportive policies [1]. Market Analysis - Historical data indicates that the average duration of spring rallies since 2010 is 39 days, with a maximum increase of 15.8%. The current rally has lasted 31 days with a gain of 9.8%, suggesting potential for further upward movement [2]. - The analysis maintains the view that the spring rally is entering a phase of "volume contraction and price increase," with a stronger focus on quality growth factors [3]. Sector Focus - The following sectors are highlighted for their performance expectations: 1. Cyclical sectors: Focus on tight supply in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, building materials, steel, and machinery [3]. 2. Non-bank financials: Emphasis on insurance companies benefiting from short-term premium growth and mid-term investment income enhancement [3]. 3. Technology sectors with solid fundamentals: Attention on themes such as satellite navigation, commercial aerospace, memory storage, optical modules, and circuit boards, which show clear trends in earnings growth [3].

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京2月3日电中钢协发布2026年1月下旬钢材社会库存监测旬报。2026年1月下旬，21个城市5 大品种钢材社会库存717万吨，环比增加8万吨，上升1.1%，库存小幅波动；比年初减少4万吨，下降 0.6%；比上年同期减少17万吨，下降2.3%。 ...

该行指，与市场一致预期相比，料536家有数据的A股公司中，23%将交出"盈利超预期"(2024年为 16%)，而54%则属"盈利不及预期"(2024年为57%)。虽然过去一年基本面逐步改善，但分析员对复苏速 度的预期显然过高。 大和发布研报称，中资股2025年业绩作出前瞻，料呈结构性复苏，但惊喜有限。该行料A股市场在2025 年暂时扭转了2022年至2024年的盈利恶化趋势。截至2026年1月30日，逾2,500家公布业绩预告的公司 中，有40.3%录得盈利改善(由亏转盈、盈利增长或持续盈利)，高于2024年的33.5%，但低于2025年上半 年43.8%。然而，大部分公司仍属负面业绩(持续亏损、盈利下滑或由盈转亏)。 受惠于全球金属行情及中国股市走强，料钢铁、有色金属及多元金融在2025年领跑，逾七成成份股盈利 改善。尽管地产持续低迷，房企及建材股盈利改善比例亦分别由约20%，各升至35%及53.7%。低基数 效应及政策反内卷措施是主要推动力。大和表示进入2026年以来，中国股票盈利动能延续：有色金属、 交通运输及电子板块录得最强盈利上调，而下游行业则遭下调。 ...

格隆汇2月3日丨包钢股份(600010.SH)公布，截至2026年1月31日，公司通过集中竞价交易方式累计回购 股份5413.48万股，占公司总股本的比例为0.120%，成交的最高价为2.72元/股、最低价为1.79元 /股，已 支付的总金额为1.3亿元（不含佣金、手续费等交易费用）。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2605 contract rebounded under pressure. Macroscopically, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on February 2nd, clarifying matters related to the deduction of input VAT. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.99% and a production volume of 3.0921 million tons; terminal demand increased while inventory continued to decline. Overall, the downstream demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the weakening of furnace materials and the strong rebound of the US dollar index put pressure on steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level with a stable green bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,265 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the position volume of the HC main contract is 1,477,230 lots, down 21,563 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 15,885 lots, up 15,291 lots; the spread between the HC5 - 10 contracts is - 21 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the HC on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 204,847 tons, unchanged; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 166 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou, it is 3,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it is 3,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it is 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract is 35 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 793 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.1852 million tons, up 2.5567 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 441,400 tons, up 22,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.784 million tons, up 164,100 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.5875 million tons, up 25,500 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.02%, up 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.45%, down 0.08 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 78.99%, up 0.97 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 772,500 tons, up 6,100 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.7833 million tons, down 28,100 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 15 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products by foreign countries, involving carbon steel galvanized wire mesh, cold - rolled steel sheets, hot - rolled coils, stainless - steel washing troughs, and silicon - manganese steel wires. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan", encouraging localities to increase subsidies for the replacement of old consumer goods during the Spring Festival, strengthening support for offline physical retail, and mobilizing enterprises to carry out exhibitions and sales activities related to automobiles, home appliances, digital, and intelligent products during the Spring Festival [2]

▲紫金山实验室。 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 冯芃 摄 ▲南钢智能制造工厂。 企业供图 ▲江北新区的南京生物医药分中心技术平台工作人员在进行药物检测。该中心为高校、企业搭技术转化 桥梁，成创新企业孵化器。 通讯员 刘植花 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 孙中元 摄 ▲南京"江翼达"低空飞行基地的无人机在为 移动中的船舶送外卖。 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 徐琦 摄 □ 南京日报/紫金山新闻记者 江芬芬 【两会热点】 2月2日，中国人民政治协商会议江苏省第十三届委员会第四次会议在江苏大会堂隆重开幕。回望过去五 年，习近平总书记三次参加全国人代会江苏代表团审议，两次亲临江苏视察，为江苏高质量发展把脉定 向，为我们做好江苏工作提供了根本遵循和行动指南。做好当前和今后一个时期工作，要围绕深入学习 贯彻习近平总书记对江苏工作重要讲话精神这条主线，牢牢把握"在推进中国式现代化中走在前、做示 范"这一战略定位，牢牢把握"争当表率、争做示范、走在前列"这一总体要求，牢牢把握"强富美高"新 江苏现代化建设这一宏伟蓝图，牢牢把握"经济大省要挑大梁，为全国发展大局作贡献"这一重大责任， 全力推动中国式现代化江苏新实践取得新的更大突破。 南京 ...

Industry Overview - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to continue its weak performance in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with demand likely to remain subdued and production to contract, leading to slight fluctuations in steel prices [2][17][18] - In the copper sector, production activities on both supply and demand sides are anticipated to be affected by the Spring Festival, resulting in continued inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to post-holiday demand verification and geopolitical developments [2][32] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight contraction in production, with sufficient supply of bauxite from Guinea. Post-holiday production recovery in alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants may support alumina prices [3][41] - Gold prices are expected to experience increased volatility in the short term, influenced by geopolitical risks and domestic political uncertainties in the U.S. [3][51] Steel Sector - The steel PMI index for January 2026 is reported at 49.9%, indicating continued contraction but a slowdown in the rate of decline, with steel prices showing slight fluctuations [17] - In December 2025, the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 98,600 tons, down 1.81% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [18] - The total crude steel production for December 2025 was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.40% [19] Copper Sector - China's electrolytic copper production in January increased by 0.10% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year, with a total production of 1.326 million tons in December 2025 [32][33] - The LME copper inventory rose by 18.69% to 175,000 tons, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 91.81% to 156,900 tons during the same period [33][40] Aluminum Sector - The production of metallurgical-grade alumina in January 2026 decreased by 1.78% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, with total production at 8.011 million tons in December 2025 [41][42] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in December 2025 was 3.874 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.87% [42] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 13.28% to $4,907.50 per ounce from December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026, while silver prices rose by 20.10% to $85.25 per ounce during the same period [51][52] Lithium and Cobalt - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 32.08% to 158,500 yuan per ton, while the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 64.58% to 158,000 yuan per ton [53] - The average price of 1 cobalt decreased by 4.99% to 447,000 yuan per ton during the reporting period [65] Rare Earths - The report notes a recovery in the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxides, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 23.41% to 748,500 yuan per ton [73]

节前休养生息 钢钢钢钢 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 2 作者：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 交易咨询证号：Z0023616 研究联系方式：13752670838 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 钢材 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 上周盘面震荡回落。铁水小幅回落，五品种成材总产量环比继续小幅增加，库存累库，表需回落。螺纹 增产累库，表需回落，热卷增产去库，表需小幅回升。长流程钢厂利润小幅下降，部分钢厂亏损，短流 程钢厂谷电利润小幅回升。临近春节假期，部分贸易商已提前放假，现货市场成交清淡。盘面原料价格 | | | | 震荡剧烈，焦炭第一轮提涨落地，市场暂无后续价格预期。策略方面可更多关注钢厂利润相关头寸。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 螺纹月差5-10月差-49元/吨。 | | 钢厂利润 | 偏强 | 本周247家钢铁企业盈利率为39.39%，环比小幅回落，显著低于去年同期水平。 | | 废钢 | 中性 | 根据测算，华东电炉厂当前平电生产吨钢亏损95元/吨，谷电吨钢盈利23 ...