冬至跑广马、逛 文明集市！北京 路文明集市促消 费系列活动人气 旺_南方+_南方 plus 俗话说"冬至大 如年"，年年冬 至，年年福聚。 然而，今年的冬 至，广东惊喜不 断。今天早上7 时，2025广马热 情开跑，2.6万 名跑者用脚步丈 量千年商都—— 广州的时代脉 搏。而在千年商 道——北京路， 19日启动的"文 明集市促消费系 列活动"，在周 末节假日期间， 为市民、游客、 跑者带来了丰富 的县域优品、文 旅文创、科技产 些市民会扫我们 的二维码，希望 以后在线上下 单。这几天感觉 市场还是很 旺。"企业相关 品等，以多元化 消费场景，让大 家在暖意冬至感 受广东"百千万 工程"新成效、 乡风文明新气 象。 在北京路南段， 文明集市综合展 区吸引了不少人 驻足购物。在揭 阳揭西展位，橄 榄饮品深受游客 喜爱。"This tastes good!Is it made from plants?"现场， 来自欧洲的游客 Eric一家品尝了 橄榄饮品，纷纷 竖起大拇指。据 揭西展位相关负 责人介绍，19- 20日两天已经卖 出了超500瓶， 随着周末广马活 动，北京路人流 量激增，营业额 还会攀升。 "我们海 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event "Yunong Youpin · Jingcai Zhanfang" held in Beijing aims to promote Chongqing's agricultural products and establish connections between local specialties and major distribution platforms in the capital [1]. Group 1: Agricultural Brand Development - Chongqing has certified a total of 165 "famous, special, and excellent" agricultural products, 2,618 green food products, 70 geographical indication products, and 137 organic products [3]. - Eight brands, including Fengjie navel oranges and Fuling pickled vegetables, have been selected for the national agricultural brand cultivation program, while 14 brands, such as Fengdu beef and Wanzhou ancient red oranges, are included in the national agricultural brand directory [3]. - The goal is to increase sales of selected products by over 10% by 2027, driving the high-quality development of over 100 new business entities and ensuring stable income for over 1 million farmers [3]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Five key enterprises from Chongqing signed strategic cooperation agreements with Beijing New Fa Di Livestream E-commerce Base, marking the establishment of sales links between Chongqing specialties and a major distribution platform [3]. - Beijing New Fa Di, as an important agricultural product distribution hub in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, will provide a stable sales platform and efficient logistics network for Chongqing enterprises [3]. - Authentic Chongqing specialties will bypass multiple intermediaries and be directly supplied to supermarkets, e-commerce platforms, and community group purchases in the northern regions, ensuring faster delivery to consumers' tables [3]. Group 3: Product Showcase - The event featured over a hundred specialty products from 41 enterprises across 23 districts and counties in Chongqing, covering fresh produce, processed foods, condiments, and beverages [3]. - Attendees engaged in tasting and discussions, highlighting the diversity and quality of Chongqing's agricultural offerings [3].

2025年12月21日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高产压力未释放完毕，持续磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡偏弱运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：低位震荡，等待新消息指引 | 8 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 13 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注需求20251221 | 19 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，缺猪逻辑证伪 | 26 | | 花生：关注现货 | 32 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 棕榈油：高产压力未释放完毕，持续磨底 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡偏弱运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 棕榈油：高产边际交易难言充分，高库存压制反弹高度，原油价格再次挑战年内低点，内外交困下棕 榈油 05 合约周跌 3.04%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，油脂板块整体尚未企稳，豆油 05 合约周跌 3.53%。 本周观 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall futures market experienced fluctuations with a divergence in performance across sectors during the week of December 15 to December 19, with energy and chemical sectors performing well while agricultural products generally declined [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.50% and crude oil fell by 2.66%, while the black series saw coking coal increase by 9.02% and iron ore rise by 2.28% [1] - Precious metals maintained strength with gold rising by 1.01% and silver increasing by 3.26%, while agricultural products like eggs and palm oil saw declines of 1.58% and 3.19% respectively [1] Group 2: Polyester Market Dynamics - PX and PTA futures prices surged, reaching new highs not seen in three months, with PX hitting a peak since March and PTA surpassing 4900 yuan/ton [3] - The PTA market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with a stable supply-demand balance and expectations of limited inventory pressure, supporting price increases [3][4] - The polyester industry maintained a weekly output of 155.72 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 86.9%, indicating stable supply conditions [3] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are fluctuating near historical highs, with optimistic market expectations for future price increases, as Goldman Sachs predicts a rise to 4900 USD/oz by 2026 [5] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1313 tons in Q3, while demand surged, leading to upward pressure on gold prices [5] - The core factor influencing gold prices is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent rate cuts providing macro support for gold price increases [6] Group 4: U.S. Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and a total of 7.83 million unemployed individuals [8][9] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance, while transportation and federal government jobs decreased [8] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5%, indicating a return of residents to the labor market, although the unemployment rate still rose due to challenges in job placement [9] Group 5: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the 3% increase in September, but the data is viewed cautiously due to issues arising from a government shutdown [10][11] - The core CPI also increased by 2.6%, but economists remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend due to data collection challenges [10] - The Federal Reserve faces complex decisions balancing price stability and full employment, with future policy directions likely to be sensitive to upcoming economic data [11]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

Core Insights - The "Ganwei" brand has ranked first in the China Regional Agricultural Brand Influence Index, achieving its fifth consecutive title [1] - Gansu has established a comprehensive brand matrix of "1+55+750" to support the "Ganwei" brand, focusing on local specialties and modern agriculture [1] Group 1 - Gansu has become a leading base for modern cold and drought-resistant agriculture, being the largest producer of corn, vegetables, and flower seeds in China [1] - The province is also the largest breeding base for potato seed and a significant production hub for highland summer vegetables, apples, and sheep and beef [1] - Gansu has created 19 national standardized production bases for green food raw materials, with 2,518 green, organic, and geographical indication agricultural products [2] Group 2 - The province has implemented strong marketing strategies, including "Ganwei out of Gansu" and "Ganwei going overseas," integrating online and offline sales channels [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, online sales of agricultural products in Gansu reached 22.8 billion yuan, while "Ganwei" product sales amounted to 29.2 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.03% and 28.76% respectively [2] - The event also recognized 29 brands, including "Qingyang Apple," in the 2025 China Regional Agricultural Brand Development Report [2]

Core Viewpoint - The first Import Expo Quality Products Trade Fair will be held from December 19 to 21 in Shanghai, extending the reach of the Import Expo and allowing more quality products to enter households across China [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The trade fair will cover an exhibition area of over 53,000 square meters, featuring over 700 companies from more than 60 countries and regions [1]. - The event will showcase a variety of products including food, consumer goods, agricultural products, health products, and automobiles [1]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - Consumers have expressed interest in the event, noting the opportunity to see a wide range of products and brands not typically available in stores [3]. - Some consumers are returning to the fair to purchase additional items after previous experiences at the Import Expo [3]. Group 3: Focus on Innovation - The trade fair is primarily aimed at the consumer end while also attracting numerous buyers, service providers, and channel distributors [5]. - A special 500 square meter area called the "Import Expo New Product Launch Zone" will feature over a hundred innovative products, facilitating quicker access to global innovations in the Chinese market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has authorized the European Union (EU) to implement countermeasures against U.S. imports, marking a significant development in the long-standing trade dispute over olives [1][3]. Group 1: Dispute Background - The trade dispute between the U.S. and EU has been ongoing for several years, primarily focusing on differences in import tariffs and market access rules for processed olives [1]. - The EU had previously raised objections to U.S. trade restrictions on its olive products and ultimately submitted the dispute to the WTO for resolution [1]. Group 2: WTO Ruling and Authorization - The WTO arbitration body ruled that U.S. trade measures violated WTO rules, allowing the EU to impose countermeasures on U.S. goods valued at up to $13.64 million annually [1]. - Following this ruling, the EU formally requested authorization from the WTO to suspend tariff concessions and other obligations on U.S. imports as a countermeasure [3]. Group 3: Implications of the Ruling - The authorization represents a significant victory for the EU in this trade dispute, enabling it to protect its industry interests through legitimate countermeasures [4]. - The outcome may prompt the U.S. to reassess its trade policies towards the EU to avoid further trade tensions, highlighting ongoing trade disputes in various sectors such as aviation, agriculture, and technology [4]. - The resolution of this olive trade dispute serves as a model for addressing trade differences within a multilateral framework, emphasizing the importance of WTO rules in maintaining global trade stability [4].

Group 1 - The event "Lehui Jingji" is promoting local specialties from Handan City, specifically focusing on the products from Jizhou County, known as the hometown of Mao Sui [1][6] - Jizhou County is recognized as the "Hometown of Chili Peppers" in China, emphasizing standardized cultivation, technological empowerment, and green production to enhance the chili pepper industry [3] - The event features popular products such as Tianxia Red Chili Sauce, which has gained popularity among Beijing residents, adding unique flavors to their daily meals [3] Group 2 - In addition to chili peppers, Jizhou is also showcasing leisure snacks like buckwheat crisps, oat crisps, and bagged rice crackers, which have been well-received by consumers in Beijing due to their quality and affordability [4] - The event is taking place at the Yanzhao Investment Center of the Hebei Provincial Government in Beijing, highlighting the cultural significance of Jizhou as the source of the Book of Songs [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the launch of a series of consumer promotion activities called "Civilization Market" in Guangzhou, aimed at boosting local consumption and showcasing regional products [3][6][7] - The event features various cultural and agricultural products, including traditional performances and local specialties, attracting a large number of visitors [5][6][12] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance economic development and cultural exchange in the region, aligning with the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [10][12] Group 2 - The article highlights the successful economic performance of Shaoguan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an increase in economic output from 150 billion to 160 billion yuan [12] - Shaoguan has achieved a forest coverage rate of 74.59%, contributing to environmental sustainability while promoting economic growth [13] - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating cultural heritage and local products into the economic framework to drive tourism and consumption [5][10][12] Group 3 - The article mentions the establishment of 161 ancient tree parks and green beautiful ancient tree villages in Guangdong, showcasing the province's commitment to ecological construction [26][27] - Over 85,000 ancient trees have been effectively protected in Guangdong, highlighting the province's efforts in environmental conservation [28][29] - The promotion of local agricultural products through events like the "Cultural Festival" and "Supply and Marketing Fair" aims to enhance the visibility and sales of regional specialties [31][32][36]