Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The unexpected sharp decline in US ADP employment data led to a differentiated reaction in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Party Committee emphasized maintaining capital market stability as the primary task and building a system environment conducive to high - quality market development. On the day, small and medium - cap stocks showed a shrinking adjustment, with a generally controllable correction range but intensified internal differentiation [1][3] Summary by Catalog Market Analysis - Domestically, the CSRC Party Committee emphasized optimizing capital market mechanisms, protecting investors, deepening reforms, promoting opening - up, and maintaining market stability. Overseas, the US June ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and the service industry employment had the largest decline since the pandemic [1] - In the spot market, A - share indices closed down, with technology stocks correcting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 3454.79, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%. The trading volume of the two markets dropped to 1.4 trillion yuan. In June 2025, 1.65 million new A - share accounts were opened, a 5.84% increase from the previous month, and 12.6 million new accounts were opened in the first half of the year, a 32.77% increase from the same period in 2024. Overseas, US indices had mixed results [2] - In the futures market, the basis discounts of stock index futures converged to varying degrees. The trading volumes of IH and IF increased, and the IF open interest rebounded [2] Strategy - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data led to a differentiated reaction in the US stock market. The CSRC's emphasis on market stability is conducive to the high - quality development of the market. Small and medium - cap stocks adjusted with controllable declines and intensified internal differentiation [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles. All data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][11][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on July 2, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.13%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.02%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.70%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.01% [13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table of futures open interest and trading volume shows the changes in the trading volume and open interest of IH, IF, and IC. The basis table shows the changes in the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts. The inter - period spread table shows the inter - period spreads and their changes for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [6][44]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining by 0.09% to close at 3454.79 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.61%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.13% [2] - Overall, more than 3200 stocks in the market declined, indicating a bearish sentiment [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (3.37%), Coal (1.99%), and Building Materials (1.42%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Electronics (-2.01%), Communication (-1.96%), and Defense & Military Industry (-1.94%) [3] - Concept stocks such as Low-E Glass (4.24%) and Silicon Energy (4.19%) showed strong performance, while Brain-Computer Interface (-2.60%) and EDR Concept (-2.47%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with attention on domestic policies, US-China tariffs, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The upcoming mid-year reports in July are anticipated to significantly impact individual stock performances [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors such as Finance, Machinery, Consumer Goods, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) for potential investment opportunities [6] Key Events - A notable surge in marine economy concept stocks was observed following the Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1, which emphasized the high-quality development of the marine economy [5]

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market saw a comprehensive rise in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The stock market, represented by the Shanghai Composite Index, broke through resistance levels, indicating a potential upward trend. However, the weak fundamentals may continue to support the bond market, leading to high-level fluctuations in the bond market moving forward [19][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1%. The total trading volume was 1.4 trillion, a decrease of 0.09 trillion from the previous day. A total of 1,856 stocks rose while 3,103 stocks fell. The Shanghai Composite Index technically broke through the March high, opening up further upward potential. Three key observation points are highlighted to assess market strength: the June 23 low as a support level, the sustainability of trading volume, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2][22][23]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.91%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.82% and 0.11%, respectively. Speculative sentiment is returning, and the U.S. stock market is expected to challenge new highs. The reduction in geopolitical risks has significantly lowered the risks associated with rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Upcoming tax cuts and regulatory relaxations are anticipated to support U.S. stock earnings and upward expectations [3][27][28]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1672, an increase of 47 basis points from the previous close. The long-term trend indicates a bearish outlook for the USD, with strong support for the offshore RMB around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 1.16%, with construction materials, coal, and ferroalloy sectors leading the gains, while corn saw declines. The volatility of oil and related products has significantly decreased from high levels. The overall trend in the commodity market remains bearish, but recent rebounds from historical lows in domestic pricing suggest a potential for bullish strategies, especially for investors with appropriate stop-loss measures [4][36][37].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% on July 2, with 15 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by the steel and coal industries, which increased by 3.37% and 1.99% respectively [1] - The construction materials sector ranked third in terms of daily gains, while the electronic and communication sectors experienced the largest declines, falling by 2.01% and 1.96% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 35.89 billion yuan, with 9 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The power equipment sector had the highest net inflow, totaling 3.29 billion yuan, followed by the steel sector with a net inflow of 0.955 billion yuan [1] - The electronic sector faced the largest net outflow, amounting to 12.078 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with a net outflow of 6.011 billion yuan [1] Construction Materials Sector Performance - The construction materials sector rose by 1.42% with a net inflow of 67.4629 million yuan, comprising 71 stocks, of which 50 rose and 21 fell [2] - Five stocks in this sector hit the daily limit up, while the top net inflow stock was Jinjing Technology, which saw an inflow of 135 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included China National Materials Technology, with a net outflow of 98.7967 million yuan, followed by Zai Sheng Technology and International Composites with outflows of 66.5889 million yuan and 62.5663 million yuan respectively [2][3] Notable Stocks in Construction Materials Sector - Jinjing Technology (600586) increased by 9.94% with a turnover rate of 6.96% and a net capital flow of 135.0987 million yuan [2] - Anhui Conch Cement (600585) rose by 3.27% with a net inflow of 67.6562 million yuan [2] - Kaisa New Energy (600876) saw a significant increase of 10.04% with a net inflow of 49.9251 million yuan [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% closing at 3454.78 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.61% at 10412.63 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down 1.22% at 982.64 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.13% at 2123.72 points [1] - Overall, there were 3282 stocks that fell, while 1943 stocks rose, and 192 stocks remained flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 13770 billion yuan, a decrease of 890.48 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as steel, coal, building materials, agriculture, banking, and non-ferrous metals led the gains, while electronics, communications, defense, computing, beauty care, and biomedicine sectors experienced declines [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included aquaculture, photovoltaic rooftops, deep-sea technology, BC batteries, silicon energy, solar thermal power, HJT batteries, selected cement manufacturing, photovoltaic, central enterprise coal, selected coal mining, perovskite batteries, lithium mining, new energy, and poultry industry [1]

Overall Inventory Cycle - In April, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.37% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 3.43%[1] - The total sales in April rose by 3.74% year-on-year, down from 4.04% previously[1] - The data indicates a preliminary shift towards active destocking in the U.S. inventory cycle[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in April, 10 were in passive restocking, including construction materials, metals, and consumer goods[12] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in April was 39.2%, with chemical products at 85.7% and construction materials at 83.2%[12] - Oil and chemical sectors are likely transitioning to active destocking, while construction and metal inventories remain high[12] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties regarding tariffs, the U.S. inventory cycle is expected to lean towards active destocking in Q2 due to previous overstocking[1] - The "panic import" demand has extended the passive restocking cycle for downstream industries[14] - Active destocking is anticipated for automotive and automotive parts as of December 2024, with a continued trend into April 2025[14]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.11% to 10476.29 points. However, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index fell by 0.86% to 994.80 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.24% to 2147.92 points. Overall, 2628 stocks rose, 2542 fell, and 247 remained unchanged across the market [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 14660 billion, a decrease of 208.42 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as comprehensive, pharmaceutical biology, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials led the gains, while computer, retail, telecommunications, media, power equipment, and real estate sectors experienced declines [1]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included China Shipbuilding System, innovative drugs, antibiotics, vitamins, generic drugs, low-priced stocks in the ChiNext, hydropower, biotechnology, advanced packaging, superhard materials, pet economy, CRO, medical material exports, selected banks, and brain-computer interfaces [1].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the Dongwu Securities multi-factor stock selection system, categorizing micro factors into five dimensions: volatility, fundamentals, trading volume, sentiment, and momentum. It leverages style indicators to classify stocks within industries and constructs final industry factors by combining intra-industry dispersion and traction indicators [6][7] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Micro factors are categorized into five dimensions using the Dongwu Securities multi-factor classification standard [6] 2. Style indicators are used to classify stocks within industries, creating intra-industry dispersion and traction indicators [6] 3. The final industry factors are synthesized into five categories: volatility, fundamentals, trading volume, sentiment, and momentum [6] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures intra-industry style differences and integrates multiple dimensions to enhance industry rotation strategies [6] 2. Model Name: Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model for CSI 300 Index Enhancement - **Model Construction Idea**: This model applies the five-dimensional industry rotation framework to enhance the CSI 300 Index by overweighting high-scoring industries and underweighting low-scoring ones [22] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. At the end of each month, the top five industries (highest scores) are selected as enhancement industries, and the bottom five industries (lowest scores) are excluded [22] 2. Stocks in excluded industries are removed from the portfolio, and their weights are proportionally redistributed to stocks in enhancement industries [22] 3. The portfolio is rebalanced monthly [22] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 21.59% - **Annualized Volatility**: 10.77% - **IR**: 2.00 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 73.33% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 13.30% [10][14] 2. Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model (Long-Only, Market-Neutral) - **Annualized Return**: 10.52% - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.59% - **IR**: 1.60 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 70.83% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 9.36% [14][15] 3. Five-Dimensional Industry Rotation Model for CSI 300 Index Enhancement - **Annualized Excess Return**: 8.90% - **Annualized Excess Volatility**: 7.50% - **IR**: 1.19 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 69.42% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 12.74% [23] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Volatility Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of stock returns within an industry to capture risk-adjusted opportunities [6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the standard deviation of stock returns within each industry 2. Normalize the values to ensure comparability across industries [6] 2. Factor Name: Fundamentals Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the financial health and valuation metrics of stocks within an industry [6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate financial ratios such as ROE, P/E, and P/B for stocks within each industry 2. Normalize and rank the aggregated values [6] 3. Factor Name: Trading Volume Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks liquidity and trading activity within industries to identify momentum-driven opportunities [6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the average trading volume for stocks within each industry 2. Normalize and rank the values [6] 4. Factor Name: Sentiment Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures market sentiment through price trends and investor behavior within industries [6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Analyze price momentum and news sentiment data for stocks within each industry 2. Aggregate and normalize the sentiment scores [6] 5. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies industries with strong upward price trends [6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) for stocks within each industry 2. Aggregate and normalize the momentum scores [6] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Volatility Factor - **Annualized Return**: 11.62% - **Annualized Volatility**: 10.16% - **IR**: 1.14 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 60.00% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 14.27% [14] 2. Fundamentals Factor - **Annualized Return**: 5.66% - **Annualized Volatility**: 9.93% - **IR**: 0.57 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 56.00% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 21.50% [14] 3. Trading Volume Factor - **Annualized Return**: 7.65% - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.11% - **IR**: 0.63 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 58.40% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 18.51% [14] 4. Sentiment Factor - **Annualized Return**: 7.87% - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.91% - **IR**: 0.61 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 64.00% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 14.79% [14] 5. Momentum Factor - **Annualized Return**: 11.69% - **Annualized Volatility**: 10.71% - **IR**: 1.09 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 61.29% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 13.52% [14] 6. Composite Factor - **Annualized Return**: 21.59% - **Annualized Volatility**: 10.77% - **IR**: 2.00 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 73.33% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 13.30% [14]

ESG Policies - The Ministry of Finance released a draft application guide for the "Corporate Sustainable Disclosure Standards," detailing nine key areas for corporate sustainability information disclosure [1] - The guide aims to enhance the quality of sustainability disclosures and promote high-quality corporate development [1] Climate Change Reports - The China Meteorological Administration published the "China Climate Change Blue Book (2025)," highlighting ongoing global warming trends and significant climate changes in China [2] - The report indicates that China is experiencing a higher warming rate than the global average, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe [2] - Monitoring indicators for 2024 are expected to reach new highs, emphasizing the urgency of climate change response measures [2] Global Energy Standards - The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization announced the release of the first seven global energy interconnection standards, developed by nearly 160 experts from nine countries [3] - These standards cover various areas, including new power system planning and clean energy resource assessment, filling international standard gaps [3] ESG Events - The second China-Europe Enterprise ESG Best Practices Conference was held in Stuttgart, Germany, focusing on enhancing cooperation in the ESG field [4] - The conference highlighted the strategic consensus and practical alignment between China and Europe in ESG, aiming to reshape sustainable economic and trade paradigms [4] ESG Initiatives - The China Building Materials Federation released a report promoting sustainable development in the building materials industry and launched a public service platform for ESG practices [5] - This initiative aims to integrate key aspects such as information disclosure and financial support, establishing a closed-loop management system [5] Carbon Footprint Management - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment published China's first "Product Carbon Footprint Management System Progress Report 2025," indicating a strong start in carbon footprint management system construction [6] - The report states that over 70 national standards for carbon footprint accounting are in development, showcasing China's commitment to standardized carbon management [6] Green Energy Initiatives - The State Grid announced that the 2025 Summer Davos Forum will achieve 100% green energy supply, reducing carbon emissions significantly [7] - This initiative demonstrates a market-driven approach to clean energy consumption and provides a replicable model for green energy use in large events [7]

Core Viewpoint - The event highlighted the implementation of new energy-saving standards for public buildings in Shandong, aiming for a 78% energy efficiency improvement, alongside the existing 83% standard for residential buildings, reflecting a significant push towards energy conservation and carbon reduction in the construction industry [3][4]. Group 1: Energy Efficiency Standards - Shandong is set to implement a new public building energy-saving standard of 78%, which is the first of its kind in the country, effective from August 1, 2023 [4]. - The residential building energy-saving standard of 83% was already implemented on May 1, 2023, marking a significant advancement in energy efficiency requirements [4]. - The new standards emphasize the use of all-electric designs for energy systems, excluding centralized heating, and aim to enhance the thermal performance of building envelopes [4][5]. Group 2: Green Building Promotion - The promotion of green buildings is a key focus, with requirements for new urban residential buildings to comply with green building standards, and public buildings funded by government or state-owned investments to meet at least two-star green building standards [3][4]. - The application of green building materials is mandated, with specific percentages required for different star ratings of green buildings: 10% for one-star, 20% for two-star, and 30% for three-star buildings [3][4]. Group 3: Market Opportunities and Innovations - The new energy-saving standards are expected to drive the adoption of high-efficiency insulation materials and innovative construction methods, creating new market opportunities for the construction industry [5][7]. - The introduction of advanced materials, such as composite insulation boards, is gaining traction, with benefits including reduced thickness and improved thermal performance, leading to cost reductions for developers and buyers [7][9]. - The event showcased new technologies and products, including integrated photovoltaic materials that serve both decorative and energy-generating purposes, indicating a trend towards multifunctional building materials [9].