投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 需求不及预期，期现双双走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-26 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :需求不及预期，期现双双走弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.3万吨至85万吨;（2）烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.7%，较上周环比+1.0%。 分区域来看，周内华东、华南、华中前期部分检修设备恢复之后负荷逐步提升；西南及华北牵扯部分设备轻微调整，本地负荷略有下滑，其中山东周度产 | | | | 能利用率91.5%，环比-0.9%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2）粘胶短纤行业产能利用率88.43%，较上周+3.01% ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The mainstream regional liquid caustic soda market prices continued to decline this week. High开工 and poor sales led to inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, short - term prices are under pressure, and the short - term driving force remains weak [3]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. Although the market sentiment is good and the trend is relatively strong, with the approaching Spring Festival, downstream production demand is weakening, and inventory is rapidly accumulating. Also, the support from raw material calcium carbide is weak. It is expected that the upward space of PVC prices is limited, and it may fluctuate between 4700 - 5000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market**: The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. There were frequent low - price situations in the week, impacting the market. The main downstream unloading was still difficult, and order transactions were light [3]. - **Supply**: As of Thursday, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of major sample enterprises nationwide was 90.87%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week. There were sporadic short - stops of chlor - alkali plants, but some previously reduced - load plants resumed production [28]. - **Inventory**: On January 21, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China increased by 5.52% compared with January 14. In Shandong, the inventory decreased by 0.44% [28]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were some ongoing and planned maintenance situations of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises. For example, Wuhai Chemical in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and the start - up time is undetermined. Chongqing Tianyuan in the Southwest plans to have maintenance in March, but the specific time is undetermined [30]. - **Downstream Industry - Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new - to - be - put - into - production capacity of alumina is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production of alumina in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increment for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons. Recently, alumina futures prices have risen and then fallen, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the price will continue to operate weakly in the range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton [34][38]. - **Export**: In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. Exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [59]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market**: Domestic PVC prices rose and then consolidated this week. As of now, the spot ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type five - grade in East China is 4520 - 4620 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - type is 4700 - 4800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased, with some enterprises having unplanned production cuts, but overall supply remained at a high level [4]. - **Device Dynamics**: There were no new maintenance enterprises this week, and the maintenance loss this week was 44,280 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5700 tons. It is expected that the maintenance loss will slightly decrease next week [74]. - **Downstream Industry - Real Estate**: The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and commercial housing sales area showing weak performance [75]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [82]. - **External Market**: Some external PVC prices have weakened [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The strong price of liquid chlorine supports the high operation rate of chlor - alkali enterprises, while the caustic soda price is under downward pressure. Since the beginning of 2026, the domestic caustic soda market has continued to weaken, with significant declines in both futures and spot prices. The driving factors for the decline include the sharp rise in liquid chlorine prices, high inventory, and weak demand [2]. - Although the caustic soda price has fallen, due to the rich profits from liquid chlorine, the overall gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains positive (about 154 yuan/ton), and they have insufficient willingness to cut production actively. Without large - scale production cuts, the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. The futures price is expected to continue to fall until the disk profit reaches 0. The SH2603 reference operating range is 1750 - 2100 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Caustic Soda Market Review - Since the beginning of 2026, the futures and spot prices of caustic soda have been under continuous pressure. As of January 23, the 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price dropped from 2197 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 1944 yuan/ton, and the caustic soda 2603 contract dropped from 2241 yuan/ton to 1936 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in liquid chlorine prices is the main core contradiction, and the inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, leading to a collapse - like decline in futures and spot prices [4]. - The current market is similar to that from March to May 2025. The strong seasonal demand for liquid chlorine has pushed up its price. Although the liquid caustic soda price has continued to decline, chlor - alkali plants still maintain profitability. On the demand side, alumina enterprises' profits are under pressure, and it is the off - season for non - aluminum demand. The mismatch between supply and demand has led to continuous inventory accumulation and falling prices [4]. - As of January 23, the liquid chlorine price has risen from 150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 350 yuan/ton. The reason is that on January 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that the export tax rebates for three major categories of PVC products would be cancelled from April 1. After the policy was announced, the domestic PVC industry entered a "rush - to - export" cycle, increasing the demand for liquid chlorine. As of January 23, the average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali plants corresponding to the caustic soda 2603 disk price is still 154 yuan/ton [4]. - As of January 23, the latest weekly production reached 86.3 tons, a new high. With the maintenance of gross profit and the release of new production lines, production has been rising steadily. The spot price is expected to continue to be under pressure before large - scale production cuts. The latest national weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda reached 50.96 tons, still at a five - year high [5]. 2. Market Outlook - On the supply side, production continues to rise, and it is necessary to observe whether there will be production cuts due to profit contraction. On the demand side, alumina prices are continuously falling, and most alumina producers are facing losses. The expectations of production cuts and delayed production are increasing, and the non - aluminum peak season is coming to an end. The demand for caustic soda is expected to be under pressure in the short term [21]. - By reviewing the market from March to May last year, the futures price is expected to continue to fall until the disk profit reaches 0. Attention should be paid to the persistence of liquid chlorine prices and the "rush - to - export" of PVC. The upward range of liquid chlorine prices determines the lower limit of the current liquid caustic soda price. The SH2603 reference operating range is 1750 - 2100 yuan/ton. It is necessary to continuously track liquid chlorine prices, chlor - alkali plant gross profits, caustic soda production, and the alkali - stocking rhythm of alumina enterprises [21].

Core Viewpoint - The chlor-alkali industry is facing significant challenges in 2025, with multiple companies, including Xinjiang Tianye and Huashu Co., forecasting substantial losses due to declining PVC prices and oversupply in the market [1][2][3]. Company Summaries - Xinjiang Tianye (600075.SH) expects a net loss of approximately 50 million yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to a profit of 68.435 million yuan in the same period last year [1][3]. - Huashu Co. (600935.SH) anticipates a net loss between 145 million yuan and 180 million yuan, attributing the losses to weak demand and excess capacity in the PVC sector [3]. - Yinglite (000635.SZ) projects a net loss of 550 million yuan for 2025, marking a 9.44% year-on-year decline, and has recorded losses for four consecutive years [3]. Industry Analysis - The PVC market is characterized by "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand," leading to a cumulative price drop of approximately 11% for SG-5 type PVC in 2025 [2][4]. - The domestic PVC production capacity increased by 220,000 tons in 2025, reaching a total capacity of 29.93 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 7.35% [4]. - The average operating rate in the PVC industry is expected to remain around 77%-78% in 2025, with some high-cost small enterprises potentially exiting the market due to ongoing losses [4]. Demand Factors - The demand for PVC products is under pressure, particularly in the real estate sector, which accounts for about 60% of PVC downstream products [4]. - The area of completed housing in China decreased by 18% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, further impacting PVC demand [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PVC industry may see a structural adjustment in 2026, with potential for supply-demand imbalances to gradually ease, although the oversupply situation is unlikely to be fundamentally resolved [4][5]. - The competitive landscape in the PVC market is expected to intensify, necessitating companies to enhance their competitiveness to survive future market changes [5].

PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4849元/吨（+106）；华东基差-279元/吨（-36）;华南基差-249元/吨（-46）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4570元/吨（+70）；华南电石法报价4600元/吨（+60）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格750元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-35元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-800元/吨（-137）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-49元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润0.5美元/吨（+0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.8万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存57.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率80.14%（-0.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.04%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率77.98%（-1.10%）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-01-23 宏观情绪好转，基本面延续弱势 市场要闻与重要数据 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量88.4万吨（-4.2）。 目前烧碱现货报价偏弱。盘面受化工板块整体偏强影响，小幅反弹。烧碱供需偏弱，山东库存延续累库。当前供 应端整体开工高位，液碱价格下行，氯碱企业液氯挺价意愿增强，部分耗氯 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of caustic soda has been continuously declining due to cost reduction, supply - demand collapse, and high inventory. The near - term contracts (02 and 03) face significant delivery pressure, and the downward price trend is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the far - term contracts (04, 05 and later) may face a situation of cost increase and expected supply reduction, so short - selling these contracts should be done with caution [2]. - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 03 contract futures price is 1948. The cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 615, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 1922, and the basis is - 26 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continues to decline. Some orders are negotiated on a case - by - case basis. The unloading of two major alumina downstream customers is continuously difficult, making it hard for caustic soda plants to reduce inventory. Although there is some procurement from alumina producers outside the province, the impact is limited [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - On the demand side, the oversupply situation of alumina has not changed in the short term. The expectation of production cuts suppresses the hoarding of caustic soda, and non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, so overall demand lacks support. - On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Without losses reaching the cash - flow cost, manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production. - In general, the high inventory of caustic soda makes it difficult to reverse the downward price trend before the Spring Festival. However, the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable after April, so the far - term contracts may face a situation of cost increase and expected supply reduction [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - V03 - 05 long at low prices; Inter - variety - None [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - Cautiously bearish; Inter - period - SH03 - 05 short at high prices; Inter - variety - None [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent rush to export has supported the spot. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, further loosening the supply - demand relationship [3] - The caustic soda spot price is weak due to low - price warehouse receipts, and the supply - demand is weak. Shandong's inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to downstream receiving sentiment and fluctuations in downstream liquid chlorine devices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,743 yuan/ton (- 64); the East China basis is - 243 yuan/ton (+ 24); the South China basis is - 203 yuan/ton (+ 24) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (- 40); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,540 yuan/ton (- 40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0); the calcium carbide price is 2,855 yuan/ton (+ 0); the calcium carbide profit is - 35 yuan/ton (+ 0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 662 yuan/ton (- 29); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 138 yuan/ton (+ 54); the PVC export profit is 0.1 US dollars/ton (- 10.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.1 tons (- 1.7); the social PVC inventory is 56.2 tons (+ 1.5); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.66% (+ 0.43%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 75.48% (- 0.21%); the overall PVC operation rate is 79.08% (+ 0.23%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 92.6 tons (+ 1.7) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Domestic PVC supply is abundant, and the operation rate has rebounded. Fujian Wanhua will enter maintenance this week, and the supply is expected to decline slightly [3] - Demand: Downstream operation rates have decreased, with the profile operation rate dropping, and the pipe and film operation rates remaining flat. There is an expectation of further decline in the future, and downstream enterprises purchase on dips [3] - Inventory: The social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level compared to the same period [3] - Cost: The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has decreased this week due to the weak spot price of caustic soda, and is at a low level compared to the same period. The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are stable, and their profits are still in the red [3] - Other: PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1,939 yuan/ton (- 21); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 8 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 623 yuan/ton (- 2); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,060 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 926 yuan/ton (- 6); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 481.9 yuan/ton (- 6.3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 575.08 yuan/ton (- 26.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 453.49 yuan/ton (- 50.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 51.21 tons (+ 1.70); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (- 0.18); the caustic soda operation rate is 86.70% (+ 0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.83% (+ 0.09%); the dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.76% (- 1.33%); the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 88.43% (+ 0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: The overall operation rate is at a high level, the price of liquid caustic soda is falling, and chlor - alkali enterprises have a stronger willingness to support the price of liquid chlorine. There are few planned maintenance enterprises [3] - Demand: The downstream receiving sentiment is average. The operation of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The main alumina plants in Shandong have lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda to 615 yuan/ton. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market is pessimistic with insufficient purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and export orders remain sluggish [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tianyuan Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance with a 9.02% increase in share price since the beginning of the year, and a market capitalization of 7.706 billion yuan [1] - As of January 22, the stock price reached 5.92 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 34.13 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.45% [1] - The company operates in the chlor-alkali chemical products sector, with its main business revenue composition being 42.72% from polystyrene, 26.13% from chlor-alkali products, and 12.23% from supply chain and other categories [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, the number of shareholders for Tianyuan Co., Ltd. was 51,800, a decrease of 10.84% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 12.16% to 25,123 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 132.63% to 31.69 million yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 699 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 202 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. With low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure, the short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain weak, but there is a risk of an oversold rebound. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises, as well as the production reduction of caustic soda producers [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Analysis - From January 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the alumina start - up rate increased by 0.09% week - on - week to 85.83%. From January 9th to 15th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 88.43% week - on - week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 58.76% [1] - As of January 15th, the factory warehouse inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 512,100 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.41% and a year - on - year increase of 99.64% [1] - The caustic soda purchase price of Weiqiao has been continuously reduced. Since January 18th, it has been reduced by 15 yuan, with an ex - factory price of 630 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance have implemented an interest - subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro - enterprises' loans, established a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extended the implementation period of the fiscal interest - subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is currently in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. The short - term decline is due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons. The futures price has hit new lows, and the short - term supply - demand is weak, but an oversold rebound should be guarded against. The main downstream alumina has rebounded recently, and the electrolytic aluminum industry is operating stably. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises, as well as the production reduction of caustic soda producers [3]

Market Overview - The main contract for caustic soda futures closed at 1939.0 CNY/ton, experiencing a decline of 2.02% [1] - As of January 20, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 224,200 long positions and 254,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.88. The net position increased by 2,131 contracts to -30,700 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Production and Supply - Last week, the production of caustic soda from sample enterprises with a capacity of 20,000 tons or more was approximately 853,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 4.28% [1] - A 170,000-ton facility in East China experienced a short shutdown, while a 650,000-ton facility in East China and a 300,000-ton facility in South China resumed operations, leading to a slight increase in caustic soda production capacity utilization, which remains at a high operating level [1] Industry Sentiment - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the market is under pressure from high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, making short-term improvements unlikely. Caustic soda prices are expected to continue operating at low levels, with resistance around 2130-2150 CNY/ton and support to be monitored around 1900-2000 CNY/ton [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that the caustic soda market continues to exhibit a weak trend, with ongoing inventory accumulation and significant inventory pressure. A large alumina enterprise in Shandong reduced the price of liquid caustic soda by 15 CNY to 615 CNY. The price of liquid chlorine remains firm at around 300 CNY, maintaining acceptable integrated profits, while caustic soda production remains high. Although downstream alumina operations are at high levels, the industry is generally experiencing losses, and future production cuts need to be monitored [3]