1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to the concentrated delivery near the end of the month, the arrival of goods was obvious. The social inventory of stainless steel increased slightly after a decline. In the spot market, at the beginning of the week, driven by the rising futures market, inquiries were active, and rigid demand was concentratedly released at low prices, resulting in relatively good transactions. However, as the price increased, the downstream's willingness to chase high prices weakened, and transactions became dull. In terms of demand, the overall demand for 300 - series stainless steel was resilient, and the release of terminal demand was relatively stable. Some merchants completed their March sales targets ahead of schedule. The automotive industry performed well, strongly supporting the demand for stainless steel. In contrast, the demand in the architectural decoration field remained weak due to the continuous slump in the real estate market, and the performance of the home - appliance industry was also average, providing limited impetus to stainless - steel consumption. Overall, the current stainless - steel supply remained stable, terminal consumption slightly exceeded expectations, and the willingness of traders to stockpile increased. It is expected that the market will remain strong in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On March 27, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 14,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.75%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel futures contract on Friday afternoon was 14,390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.86% [11][18]. - **Supply**: In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude - steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.84%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.99%. The output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.36% [11][29][32]. - **Demand**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 92.9343 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.50%. In December, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively. In February, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel - processing industry was + 10% [11][42][45]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1052 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04%. On March 20, the futures warehouse - receipt inventory was 40,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,902 tons. On March 27, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 191,900 tons, 696,700 tons, and 269,000 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 0.43% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 52,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.35%, and the unloading volume was 82,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.20% [11][52][55]. - **Cost**: On March 24, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,110 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change. Iron - making plants in Fujian were currently losing 97 yuan/nickel point [11][62]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On March 27, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 14,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.75%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel futures contract on Friday afternoon was 14,390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.86% [18]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 108) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 90 yuan (- 118) higher than the main contract. The futures position was 192,331 lots, a week - on - week increase of 8.55% [22]. - In terms of the month - to - month spread, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was 50 (- 30), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was 135 (- 10) [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude - steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.84% [29]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.99%. The output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.36% [32]. - It is expected that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in February was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.64%. In February, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 93,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.58% [35]. - In February, the net export volume of stainless steel was 150,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.60% and a year - on - year increase of 30.86%. From January to February, the cumulative net export volume was 2.9897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16% [38]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 92.9343 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.50% [42]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively. In February, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel - processing industry was + 10% [45]. - In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%. In February, the automobile sales volume was 1.805 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 23.08% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.20% [48]. 3.5 Inventory - On March 27, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1052 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04%. On March 20, the futures warehouse - receipt inventory was 40,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,902 tons [52]. - On March 27, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 191,900 tons, 696,700 tons, and 269,000 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 0.43% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 52,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.35%, and the unloading volume was 82,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.20% [55]. 3.6 Cost Side - In February, the nickel - ore import volume was 1.2239 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.58% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. Currently, the quotation for 1.5% nickel - ore is 77.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 7.4184 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.41% [59]. - On March 24, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,110 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change. Iron - making plants in Fujian were currently losing 97 yuan/nickel point [62]. - On March 27, the chromium - ore quotation was 61 yuan/dry ton, with no week - on - week change. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,700 yuan/50 - base tons, with no week - on - week change. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in February was 851,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49% [65]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel ferronickel production line is - 568 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is - 3.77% [68].

Market Overview - The A-share market indices experienced a significant narrowing of declines this week, indicating a shift in market sentiment from panic to recovery, with a gradual rebalancing of capital styles [2][3][7] - Despite continued net outflows of main funds, a marginal improvement trend has begun to emerge, suggesting the market is in a critical window of "weak recovery + rebalancing" [2][3] Index Performance - Major A-share indices continued their adjustment but showed a notable reduction in declines compared to the previous week, transitioning from a rapid drop phase to a weak oscillation recovery phase [3][7] - Small-cap stocks experienced a technical rebound after emotional clearance, while previously resilient growth sectors, represented by the ChiNext, turned into the leading decliners, highlighting significant style rotation [3][7] Sector Rotation - The market is dominated by a "defensive + price increase" theme, with materials, utilities, and healthcare sectors rising approximately 2.5%, reflecting a preference for assets with "resource attributes + stable cash flow" [10][3] - Conversely, sectors such as information technology, finance, and certain consumer segments faced pressure, indicating that high valuation and high beta assets are still undergoing valuation digestion [10][3] Trading Volume - A-shares exhibited a "volume contraction" characteristic this week, with weekly trading volume decreasing from 11.06 trillion yuan to 10.56 trillion yuan, indicating a continued decline in trading enthusiasm [23][25] - Daily trading amounts fell from approximately 2.45 trillion yuan at the beginning of the week to 1.86 trillion yuan by Friday, with the market turnover rate dropping from 4.98% to 3.66% [23][25] Fund Flow - Main funds exhibited a "first out, then in" pattern, with a net outflow of 795 billion yuan on Monday due to external geopolitical shocks, followed by a net inflow of 150 billion yuan on Wednesday, marking a key turning point for the week [32][36] - By Friday, main funds continued to flow in with a net inflow of 82.58 billion yuan, indicating a shift from broad withdrawal to structural positioning [32][36] Market Sentiment - The market displayed a typical "V-shaped recovery" this week, with the number of stocks hitting the daily limit down reaching 145 on Monday, but quickly rebounding with a significant number of stocks hitting the limit up in subsequent days [41][46] - Margin financing balances have shown a clear downward trend, reflecting a cautious shift in sentiment, although a slight recovery was observed in the latter part of the week [42][46] Upcoming Focus - Attention will be on policy, macro data, and external disturbances, as the upcoming quarter is a crucial window for assessing economic recovery [50][51] - The market will also face the unlocking of restricted shares for 26 companies next week, which may exert pressure on stock prices [51][53]

据CCTV国际时讯，伊朗迈赫尔通讯社今天（3月27日）报道，美国与以色列空袭了伊朗胡齐斯坦钢 铁厂及伊斯法罕穆巴拉克钢铁厂，穆巴拉克钢铁厂配套的发电厂也遭到了袭击。 微信编辑 | 小羊 ...

Report Title - Black Series Weekly Report - Steel [2] Report Date - March 27, 2026 [2] Researcher Information - Researcher: Li Haixiao, Trading Consultation: Z0019568; Reviewer: Tang Yun, Z0002422 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, but the growth rate narrowed. The growth of apparent demand for rebar, hot-rolled coils, and wire rods provided positive drivers for the growth of the five major steel products' apparent demand. In terms of varieties, the apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and hot-rolled coils increased month-on-month. The decrease in rebar production and inventory contributed significantly to the growth of apparent demand. Wire rods had strong supply and demand. The increase in the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was mainly due to the increase in production, while inventory had a negative impact. Current data shows that building materials are stronger than the manufacturing industry, and hot-rolled coils are stronger than cold-rolled and medium-thick plates. Overall, the market is in a volatile state. The rebar 2610 contract and the hot-rolled coil 2610 contract are both in a volatile state [6] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production Data**: In February 2026, the pig iron output was 7,529.40 million tons, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a year-on-year change of 3.10%. The crude steel output was 8,601.90 million tons, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a year-on-year change of 4.60%. The steel output was 13,442.14 million tons, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a year-on-year change of 8.30%. The global crude steel output was 16,610.00 million tons, with a month-on-month change of -4.43% and a year-on-year change of -2.76% [12] - **Consumption Data**: In February 2026, the apparent consumption of crude steel was 6,575.92 million tons, with a month-on-month change of -3.79% and a year-on-year change of 8.87%. The apparent consumption of steel was 10,999.67 million tons, with a month-on-month change of -0.01% and a year-on-year change of 8.44%. The total steel consumption was 2,214.90 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 6.17% and a year-on-year growth of 9.15%. The total steel consumption (excluding exports) was 1,254.91 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of -55.93% and a year-on-year growth of 9.35% [13] 2. Downstream Macroeconomic Demand - **Real Estate**: The real estate and infrastructure steel consumption showed a downward trend. In February 2026, the real estate and infrastructure steel consumption was 809.03 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 1.93% and a year-on-year growth of -10.25% [13] - **Manufacturing**: The manufacturing steel consumption showed a relatively stable trend. In February 2026, the manufacturing steel consumption was 1,806.00 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 1.43% and a year-on-year growth of -1.61% [13] - **Total Steel Consumption**: The total steel consumption showed a certain degree of volatility. In February 2026, the total steel consumption was 3,399.03 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 4.59% and a year-on-year growth of -6.31% [13] - **Exports**: Exports (including billets) showed a downward trend. In February 2026, the export volume was 784.00 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of -12.01% [13] 3. Industry Fundamentals - **Supply**: The production of the five major steel products showed a slight decrease. In February 2026, the production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.03% month-on-month and 3.44% year-on-year. The production of rebar decreased by 2.69% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year. The production of hot-rolled coils increased by 1.8% month-on-month and decreased by 5.89% year-on-year [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased. In February 2026, the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.49% month-on-month and increased by 9.21% year-on-year. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 3.09% month-on-month and increased by 5.23% year-on-year. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 1.74% month-on-month and increased by 14.47% year-on-year [8] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased. In February 2026, the apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 2.24% month-on-month and decreased by 3.46% year-on-year. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 8.3% month-on-month and decreased by 8.13% year-on-year. The apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased by 1% month-on-month and decreased by 7.4% year-on-year [8] 4. Price - **Basis**: The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed certain changes. For rebar, the basis of the 01 contract was 21 (40), the 05 contract was 72 (95), and the 10 contract was 42 (67). For hot-rolled coils, the basis of the 01 contract was -37 (-60), the 05 contract was -25 (-42), and the 10 contract was -33 (-47) [8] - **Term Structure**: The term structure of rebar and hot-rolled coils also showed certain characteristics. The term structure of rebar and hot-rolled coils was presented graphically in the report [99][102] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed certain fluctuations. For rebar, the 1 - 5 spread was 51 (56), the 5 - 10 spread was -30 (-28), and the 10 - 01 spread was -21 (-31). For hot-rolled coils, the 1 - 5 spread was 12 (18), the 5 - 10 spread was -8 (-5), and the 10 - 01 spread was -4 (-13) [8] - **Coil-Rebar Spread**: The coil-rebar spread of different contracts showed different trends. The 01 contract was 138 (130), the 05 contract was 177 (167), and the 10 contract was 155 (144) [8] 5. Warehouse Receipts - The report presented the warehouse receipts of rebar and hot-rolled coils from 2020 to 2026 graphically [131][133]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of steel products (RB2605, HC2605) are expected to decline first and then rise. The news is relatively bearish for the expected steel costs and prices, while the demand continues to recover but fails to drive the steel prices higher. Instead, the prices decline due to cost expectations. It is recommended to buy for hedging at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [8][30][33]. - The prices of coke and coking coal (J2605, JM2605) are also expected to decline first and then rise. The tension in the news eases, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. After a short - term correction, the prices will maintain an upward trend [9][52]. - The price of iron ore (I2605) will operate weakly in the short term. If the news about the relaxation of the BHP iron ore ban is true, the piled - up iron ore will flow into the market, affecting the price. However, with the recovery of downstream demand, the price may strengthen again after the short - term impact fades [10][11][85]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The spot prices of major rebar markets fluctuated, while those of major hot - rolled coil markets rose slightly. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets changed from - 10 yuan/ton to + 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. - **Blast furnace and crude steel production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching 86.63% (a 1.10 - percentage - point increase week - on - week). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in mid - March increased by 1.57 tons or 0.78% week - on - week to 202.70 tons [12]. - **Hot metal production and EAF production**: The national average daily hot metal production has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching 231.09 tons (a 2.94 - ton or 1.29% increase week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent EAF steel mills has been rising for four consecutive weeks, reaching 58.87% (a 2.30 - percentage - point increase week - on - week) [15]. - **Output and inventory of five major steel products**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills decreased by 5.46 tons or 2.69% week - on - week to 197.87 tons, while the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.40 tons or 1.80% week - on - week to 305.61 tons. The rebar inventory of major domestic steel mills decreased by 17.04 tons or 7.21% week - on - week to 219.16 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.11 tons or 1.31% week - on - week to 83.85 tons [17]. - **Social inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities decreased by 10.46 tons or 1.60% week - on - week to 642.75 tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities decreased by 6.91 tons or 1.84% week - on - week to 369.42 tons [20]. - **Downstream demand**: From January to February, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year; the national automobile production decreased by 9.9% year - on - year; the national metal - cutting machine tool production increased by 4.2% year - on - year; the production of air conditioners, household refrigerators, and household washing machines increased by 0.7%, 6.5%, and - 0.8% year - on - year respectively [20]. - **Apparent consumption and on - disk profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar has been rising for four consecutive weeks, reaching 225.37 tons (an 17.28 - ton or 8.30% increase week - on - week). The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils has been rising for four consecutive weeks, reaching 313.63 tons (a 3.12 - ton or 1.00% increase week - on - week). The on - disk profit of the rebar 2605 contract showed a narrowing loss after three consecutive weeks of expansion, with a week - on - week increase of 0.9 yuan/ton to - 351.2 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot rebar gross profit per ton**: The loss of the long - process steel mill's spot rebar gross profit per ton narrowed by 4.4 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 77.4 yuan/ton, and the loss of the short - process steel mill's spot rebar gross profit per ton (at flat electricity) narrowed slightly by 1.1 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 96.6 yuan/ton [27]. 3.1.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: The news is relatively bearish for the expected steel costs and prices. The steel prices are expected to decline first and then rise. It is recommended to buy for hedging at low prices in the medium - to - long - term, and the effective time window for selling for hedging may be narrowing [30][33]. - **Basis between spot and futures**: The rebar basis has been narrowing for two consecutive weeks. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 60 - 130 yuan/ton in the future. The hot - rolled coil basis, which was negative, has been narrowing for two consecutive weeks. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of - 40 - 20 yuan/ton in the future [33][34]. 3.2 Coke and Coking Coal 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The spot prices of major coke markets have been stable for three consecutive weeks, while the prices of major coking coal markets have risen significantly. The price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in major markets remained unchanged week - on - week, and the aggregated price of some main coking coal markets increased by 70 - 135 yuan/ton week - on - week [36]. - **Weekly output and capacity utilization of coke**: The average daily coke output of 230 independent coking plants has been rising for three consecutive weeks, reaching 51.41 tons (a 0.65 - ton or 1.28% increase week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants has been rising for three consecutive weeks, reaching 73.70% (a 0.87 - percentage - point increase week - on - week). The average daily coke output of 247 steel enterprises decreased slightly from the high since mid - July last year, reaching 47.28 tons (a 0.03 - ton or 0.06% decrease week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased slightly from the high since early August last year, reaching 86.40% (a 0.06 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week) [36]. - **Coke inventory and coking plant profit**: The coke inventory at ports has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching 216.11 tons (an 16.98 - ton or 8.53% increase week - on - week). The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises has been rising for three consecutive weeks, reaching 691.67 tons (a 3.49 - ton or 0.51% increase week - on - week). The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, reaching 49.78 tons (a 2.67 - ton or 5.09% decrease week - on - week). The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises has been profitable for two consecutive weeks but narrowed in the recent week, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan to 21 yuan [40]. - **Weekly output, operating rate, and inventory of sample mines**: The average daily output of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased from the high since late May last year, reaching 78.60 tons (a 1.21 - ton or 1.52% decrease week - on - week). The operating rate of 523 sample mines has been rising for five consecutive weeks from the record low since January 2021, reaching 89.16% (a 0.57 - percentage - point increase week - on - week). The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines has been decreasing significantly for three consecutive weeks, reaching 222.83 tons (a 31.26 - ton or 12.30% decrease week - on - week). The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, reaching 523.02 tons (a 13.63 - ton or 2.54% decrease week - on - week) [45]. - **Monthly import and weekly inventory of coking coal**: From January to February, China's coking coal imports were 1982.69 tons, a 5.21% increase year - on - year (the growth rate narrowed by 12.37 percentage points compared with January, and it decreased by 2.66% last year). The coking coal inventory at ports increased week - on - week, reaching 269.44 tons (a 4.49 - ton or 1.69% increase week - on - week). The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has been rising significantly for three consecutive weeks from the low since mid - September last year, reaching 885.54 tons (a 38.36 - ton or 4.53% increase week - on - week). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased week - on - week, reaching 782.41 tons (an 8.48 - ton or 1.10% increase week - on - week) [48]. - **Monthly output of raw coal and coke**: From January to February, China's raw coal output was 7.63 billion tons, a 0.32% decrease year - on - year (it increased by 1.53% from January to December last year). China's coke output was 8254.6 tons, a 0.79% increase year - on - year (the growth rate narrowed by 2.24 percentage points compared with January - December last year) [48]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to decline first and then rise. Their fundamentals are relatively stable, and after a short - term correction, the prices will maintain an upward trend [52]. 3.3 Iron Ore 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and spread**: As of March 26, the 62% Platts iron ore index rebounded slightly, reaching 108.50 US dollars/ton (a 0.10 - US - dollar or 0.09% increase week - on - week). As of March 27, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port decreased slightly, reaching 789 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan or 1.13% decrease week - on - week). Among high - grade ores, the spread between 65% Carajas fines and PB fines widened (a 4 - yuan increase week - on - week to 161 yuan/ton), and the spread between 62.5% PB lumps and PB fines widened (a 1 - yuan increase week - on - week to 108 yuan/ton). Among low - grade ores, the spread between 60.5% Jimblebar fines and PB fines narrowed (a 2 - yuan increase week - on - week to - 48 yuan/ton), and the spread between 56.5% Super Special fines and PB fines narrowed (a 4 - yuan increase week - on - week to - 119 yuan/ton) [53]. - **Inventory and port clearance volume**: In the week of March 27, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports decreased for two consecutive weeks, reaching 170 million tons (a 98.09 - ton decrease week - on - week). The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased (a 7.80 - ton decrease week - on - week to 313.17 tons). The available days of imported ore inventory for steel mills increased by 2 days week - on - week to 23 days. The sintered powder ore inventory of imported ore for 64 sample steel mills increased for two consecutive weeks, reaching 1352.83 tons (a 40.68 - ton or 3.10% increase week - on - week). The sintered powder ore inventory of domestic ore for 64 sample steel mills also increased for two consecutive weeks, reaching 78.27 tons (a 0.28 - ton or 0.36% increase week - on - week) [59]. - **Shipping and arrival**: In the week of March 20, the iron ore shipping volume from Australia (19 ports) was 1909.4 tons, an increase of 96.3 tons from the previous week. The volume shipped from Australia to China was 1548.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons from the previous week. The shipping volume from Brazil was 548.9 tons, a decrease of 22.7 tons from the previous week. The iron ore arrival volume at 45 ports was 2271.6 tons, an increase of 56.6 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low - to - medium level. The cumulative shipping volume from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks was 9729.8 tons, an increase of 635.8 tons or 6.99% compared with the previous four weeks. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume is expected to be low first and then high in the near future [63]. - **Domestic ore output and operation**: From January to February 2026, the domestic iron ore output was 16164.4 tons, a 2.08% increase year - on - year (after adjustment), and the growth rate expanded significantly by 7.67 percentage points compared with January - December 2025. As of March 27, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises decreased (a 0.39 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week to 60.42%). Affected by internal factors of individual mining groups, the planned output of iron concentrate powder of their affiliated mines was reduced, and the overall output decreased significantly, mainly concentrated in East China. With the resumption of production of previously shut - down mine concentrators and the potential increase in output of individual mines in North China and Northeast China, the overall iron concentrate powder output is expected to increase slightly in the future [68]. - **Port trading volume and hot metal cost**: As of March 26, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore trading volume at major ports rebounded, reaching 69.64 tons (a 10.32 - ton or 17.41% increase week - on - week). In the week of March 27, the average tax - free hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills remained unchanged from the previous week, at 2350 yuan/ton [70]. - **Average daily hot metal output, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization**: As of March 27, the average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 231.09 tons, an increase of 2.94 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 6.19 tons year - on - year. After the Two Sessions, the blast furnace resumption progress met expectations. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 2.45 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.03%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 1.08 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points year - on - year. Overall, the hot metal output continued to rise, and the downstream demand also showed a warming trend. With good current enterprise profits, the hot metal output is expected to further recover driven by profits and downstream demand [73]. - **Output and inventory of five major steel products**: In the week of March 27, the actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased slightly, reaching 839.58 tons (a 0.24 - ton decrease week - on - week). In terms of apparent demand, the consumption of five major products increased again, reaching 887.97 tons (a 19

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market experienced a high - opening and low - closing trend with a decline on the day. The previous increase was due to the energy substitution logic after the escalation of the Middle - East situation. Currently, the inventory is sinking, and the steel mill's production is gradually increasing. The price decline today is a correction after the previous over - increase due to sentiment. With the recovery of downstream and terminal, the market may fluctuate after the end of the conflict, but the downside space is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and closed low, with a decline during the day. Domestic mine production has recovered smoothly, with the current domestic mine operation rate reaching 89.16%, a 0.57% increase from last week. The refined coal output decreased month - on - month, but the downstream sales were smooth. After the coke price increase, coke enterprises actively purchased. The mine inventory decreased by 31.26 tons month - on - month, while the downstream coke enterprises and steel mills' inventories increased by 42.51 tons and 8.48 tons respectively. The downstream started the inventory accumulation mode, and the coking coal inventory began to be transferred downwards. The coke production increased month - on - month, the steel mill's profitability recovered, and the operation rate increased by 1.25%. The weekly daily output of molten iron was 231.09 tons. The steel mills under production restrictions gradually resumed production. The first - round coke price increase started last Friday, and more regions started to increase the price this week with an expected implementation [1] Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal was 1,170 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu was reported at 1,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,219 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 141 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan increase from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From March 21st to March 27th, the operation rate of 523 sample domestic mines for coking coal was 89.16%, a 0.57 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 78.6 tons, a 1.21 - ton decrease month - on - month [4] Demand Data - From March 21st to March 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coke enterprises was 64.76 tons, a 0.52 - ton increase month - on - month. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.28 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease month - on - month. The daily average output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons, a 2.94 - ton increase month - on - month [5]

Core Points - The agreement between the EU and the US has progressed through various stages, with the council and parliament approving it, and it now moving to a trilog phase for finalization [1][2] - The US has expressed frustration over the lengthy process, noting that it has been in compliance since the framework agreement was released in August of the previous year, while the EU has not yet complied [2][8] - The deal includes safeguards that allow for suspension if the US threatens the territorial sovereignty of EU territories, such as Greenland [3] Tariffs and Trade Issues - There are currently 50% tariffs on certain EU exports to the US, particularly steel and aluminum, which are also reciprocated by the EU [9][10] - Discussions are anticipated regarding these tariffs, although the US administration appears to be focused on other priorities at the moment [12][13] - A separate investigation into unfair trade practices by the EU is ongoing, but it is not expected to violate the terms of the current deal [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing down; the steel consumption in the automotive industry has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore market is driven by events, with a "near - strong, far - weak" fundamental characteristic. Prices are supported by costs and tight spot supplies but are suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations [26] - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals, and it is difficult to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Macro Data** - From January to February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the decline trend is stabilizing [4] - From January to February, the automobile production was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. In January, the single - month steel consumption was 1.01577 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. In February, the single - month steel consumption was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - In February, the completed infrastructure investment increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption for railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 0% and 31.1% [8] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3173, 3124, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3311, 3299, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [11] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also showed certain changes on March 27, 2026 [16] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis** - The iron ore market is event - driven, with a complex mix of long and short factors. The macro internal and external demand momentum is weak, the supply and shipment are marginally recovering, and the rising fuel cost provides support. The resumption of production by steel mills drives the increase in hot metal production, and the structural shortage of port inventory is the core driver. The fundamentals show a "near - strong, far - weak" characteristic [26] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 769.5, 812, and 788 yuan/ton respectively [27][31] - The basis and spot prices of different iron ore varieties also changed [31] - **Fundamental Data** - On March 27, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 231,090 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.1317 million tons, the apparent demand for five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, etc. [39] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis** - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals. Domestic production is increasing, inventory is close to the same - period level, hot metal production and steel mill profits are lower than in previous years, and there is great inventory pressure at the Mongolian coal port. It is difficult for prices to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the price differences between different coking coal and coke contracts, as well as the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions, showed certain changes [45][46][47] Ferroalloy - **Market Analysis** - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The Australian hurricane has disrupted the shipment of manganese ore. The price - holding by miners and the strengthening of coking coal provide bottom support. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the basis, price differences between contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed certain changes [59][61][63] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the futures - cash market, but the price increase space is limited due to limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1229, 1310, and 1360 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts also changed [72][75] Glass - **Market Analysis** - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches is a risk concern. The expected return of supply and the high middle - stream inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1041, 1179, and 1273 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts and the basis also changed [97]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.22%. Demand improved while supply was weakly stable, and the fundamentals showed seasonal improvement. With cost support, the steel price returned to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, the strength of demand improvement was questionable, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, focusing on demand performance [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.27%. Demand recovered well, and the fundamentals improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. With cost support from strong raw materials, the price returned to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, demand concerns remained, and the upward driving force was weakening under the high - inventory situation. The subsequent trend would continue to oscillate, focusing on demand performance [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.49%. Supply disturbances reappeared, and the ore price remained at a high level. However, there was no substantial change in the fundamentals of iron ore, and the over - valued ore price continued to face pressure. It was expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, focusing on steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Industrial enterprise profits**: From January to February 2026, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 1024.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises achieved a total profit of 366.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%; joint - stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 803.29 billion yuan, an increase of 22.1%; private enterprises achieved a total profit of 284.45 billion yuan, an increase of 37.2% [7]. - **Construction machinery industry**: The development goal is to maintain stable growth of the industry's operating income, with the profit growth rate higher than the operating income growth rate. It also aims to increase R & D investment, optimize overseas business layout, increase the penetration rate of new energy construction machinery, expand the application of intelligent construction equipment, and achieve digital transformation while reducing energy consumption. The market order should be more standardized, avoiding price wars and "involution - style" competition [8]. - **Iron ore project**: The US - based Ivanhoe Atlantic Mining Company obtained key environmental approvals for its railway, port, and logistics infrastructure in Liberia, clearing key obstacles for the first - phase project of its Kon Kwei Ultra - High Grade Iron Ore Project [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3190 yuan, 3200 yuan, and 3325 yuan respectively, with the national average down 8 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3290 yuan, 3220 yuan, and 3322 yuan respectively, with the national average down 6 yuan. The prices of Tangshan steel billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap were 2980 yuan and 2180 yuan respectively, with the latter down 10 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 100 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1010 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 782 yuan, down 6 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.71 yuan and 30.14 yuan respectively, with the former down 0.14 yuan and the latter up 0.11 yuan. The SGX swap price was 106.39 yuan, up 0.41 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 108.50 yuan, up 2.00 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3124 yuan | - 0.22 | 517,368 | 110,928 | 1,076,159 | - 91,050 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3299 yuan | - 0.27 | 225,634 | 11,585 | 919,538 | - 42,727 | | Iron ore | 812.0 yuan | - 0.49 | 183,962 | - 32,452 | 387,244 | - 20,782 | [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: The report presents charts of weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils, including data for multiple years [14][20]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including inventory volume, seasonal changes, and month - on - month changes [22]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit - making situation of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills [30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern improved, inventory continued to decline, and production was weakly stable. Weekly production decreased by 5.46 tons, and demand showed seasonal improvement, with weekly apparent demand increasing by 17.28 tons. However, the strength of demand improvement was questionable, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, focusing on demand performance [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both supply and demand continued to rise. Weekly production increased by 5.40 tons, but inventory remained high. Demand was resilient, with weekly apparent demand increasing by 3.12 tons, but high - frequency trading volume declined. The subsequent trend would continue to oscillate, focusing on demand performance [39]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern improved, and ore demand showed seasonal improvement. However, the improvement of industrial contradictions in the steel market was limited, and the subsequent demand growth space needed to be tracked. Supply pressure still existed, and the ore price was expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, focusing on steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of March 22, 2026, the model recommends investing in non - ferrous metals, media, communication, steel, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology, with marginal increases in non - ferrous metals, steel, and pharmaceutical biology. Non - bank finance, steel, and communication are mainly driven by expected boosts, while non - ferrous metals, media, and pharmaceutical biology are mainly driven by price - volume reversals and capital flows [2] - The industry rotation model assesses market micro - structure from fundamental, price - volume, and sentiment dimensions, and constructs a strategy using 7 relatively effective factors [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Rotation Model and Recommended Industries - The industry rotation model analyzes from three dimensions: fundamentals, price - volume, and sentiment. It back - tests original factors bi - weekly and expands price - volume factors from multiple dimensions, ultimately selecting 7 factors to build a strategy [2] - Recommended industries are non - ferrous metals, media, communication, steel, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology, with marginal increases in non - ferrous metals, steel, and pharmaceutical biology [2] 3.2 Industry ETF Portfolio - The industry ETF portfolio includes Southern China Securities Shenwan Non - Ferrous Metals ETF, GF China Securities Media ETF, Guotai China Securities All - Index Communication Equipment ETF, Guotai China Securities Steel ETF, E Fund CSI 300 Non - Bank Financial ETF, and E Fund CSI 300 Medical and Health ETF [4] - Details of each ETF, such as weight, year - end scale, institutional investors, trading volume, and returns, are provided. For example, the Southern China Securities Shenwan Non - Ferrous Metals ETF has a weight of 16.67%, a year - end scale of 20.591 billion yuan, and a one - year return of 77.03% [5] 3.3 Performance of the Industry Rotation Strategy - The industry rotation strategy declined 1.18% in the past two weeks, with an excess return of 3.18%. The excess return in the past year was 20.68%, the Sharpe ratio was 1.93, and the Calmar ratio was 3.83 [5][7] 3.4 Strategy/Composite Factor Back - testing Results - Different factors (price - volume, fundamental, and sentiment) have different IC means, IC standard deviations, ICIRs, and frequencies of IC>0. For example, the成交均价因子 has an IC mean of 4.02% and an ICIR of 15.14% [10] - After optimization, the composite factor has an IC mean of 7.81%, an ICIR of 32.49%, and a frequency of IC>0 of 46.64% [10]