证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《票息资产机会的"短"和"长"— —信用周报 20251014》 - 2025.10.15 固收周报 沥青开工率处于高位，原油猪肉价格走低 ——高频数据跟踪 20251018 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端稳中有升，焦炉、PX 开工率 下降，轮胎开工率大幅回升，沥青开工率处于高位。第二，商品房成 交、土地供应面积整体处于低位，近期或将迎来季节性改善。第三， 节后执行航班量回落，城市地铁客运量、拥堵指数回升。第四，物价 走势分化，原油、螺纹钢下降，焦煤、铜铝上涨；农产品整体上涨， 但猪肉、鸡蛋降幅较大。短期重点关注四中全会及十五五规划增量政 策、中美贸易政策以及房地产恢复情况影响。 生产：螺纹钢产量持续下行，轮胎开工率大幅回升 10 月 17 日当周，焦炉产能利用率下降 0.96 pct，高炉开工率持 平，螺纹钢产量下 ...

Group 1 - Antai Group's stock has hit the daily limit up for three consecutive trading days, with a current price of 3.27 yuan and a turnover rate of 22.65% as of 10:14 [1] - The stock has accumulated a total increase of 33.47% during the consecutive limit-up period, with a cumulative turnover rate of 61.23% [1] - The latest total market capitalization of Antai Group in A-shares is 3.292 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The stock appeared on the Dragon and Tiger list due to a cumulative deviation in the increase of 20% over three trading days and a daily deviation of 7% [1] - The net selling amount from the leading brokerage firms on the buy and sell side totaled 31.6842 million yuan [1] - Antai Group was established on July 29, 1993, with a registered capital of 1.0068 billion yuan [1]

Report Information - Report date: October 20, 2025 [3] - Report title: Full Variety Spread Daily Report [3] Core Data Summary Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: Spot price 5558, futures price 5430, basis 128, basis rate 2.36%, historical quantile 73.10% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price 5718, historical quantile 65.20% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price 3200, futures price 3037, basis 66, basis rate 2.06%, historical quantile 66.70% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price 3270, futures price 3204, historical quantile 46.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 832, futures price 771, basis 61, basis rate 7.91%, historical quantile 49.60% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 1676, futures price 1603, basis - 73, basis rate - 4.38%, historical quantile 26.49% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 1257, futures price 1179, basis 78, basis rate 6.62%, historical quantile 45.50% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: Spot price 84775, futures price 84390, basis 385, basis rate 0.46%, historical quantile 82.08% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2512)**: Spot price 20950, futures price 20910, basis 40, basis rate 0.19%, historical quantile 68.12% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price 2921, futures price 2800, basis 121, historical quantile 60.13% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price 21815, futures price 21780, basis - 35, basis rate - 0.16%, historical quantile 52.29% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Spot price 281000, futures price 280750, basis 250, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 57.70% [1] - **Nickel (NI251)**: Spot price 121550, futures price 121160, basis 390, basis rate 0.32%, historical quantile 76.87% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: Spot price 13170, futures price 12630, basis 540, basis rate 4.28%, historical quantile 92.25% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price 75700, futures price 73350, basis - 2350, basis rate - 3.10%, historical quantile 23.12% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price 9350, futures price 920, historical quantile 61.14% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price 2870, futures price 2868, basis 2, basis rate 0.07%, historical quantile 35.00% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price 8410, futures price 8256, basis 154, basis rate 1.87%, historical quantile 32.10% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price 9308, futures price 9230, basis - 78, basis rate - 0.84%, historical quantile 7.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price 2470, futures price 2306, basis 164, basis rate 7.11%, historical quantile 74.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: Spot price 10160, futures price 9861, basis 299, basis rate 3.03%, historical quantile 80.30% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Spot price 2130, futures price 2117, basis 13, basis rate 0.61%, historical quantile 49.80% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price 2550, futures price 2374, basis 176, basis rate 7.41%, historical quantile 83.10% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: Spot price 11670, futures price 11250, basis - 420, basis rate - 3.60%, historical quantile 30.90% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price 3000, futures price 2805, basis 195, basis rate 6.95%, historical quantile 48.00% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price 13335, futures price 1182, basis 14517, basis rate 8.86%, historical quantile 79.80% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price 5810, futures price 5412, basis 398, basis rate 7.35%, historical quantile 70.60% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price 8625, futures price 8600, basis - 25, basis rate - 0.29%, historical quantile 16.20% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price 11420, futures price 9600, basis - 1820, basis rate - 15.94%, historical quantile 19.30% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Spot price 6432, futures price 6292, basis 140, basis rate 2.20%, historical quantile 12.40% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price 4402, futures price 4330, basis - 72, basis rate - 2.04%, historical quantile 20.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price 4075, futures price 4003, basis 72, basis rate 1.05%, historical quantile 75.10% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF512)**: Spot price 6290, futures price 6036, basis 254, basis rate 2.20%, historical quantile 74.10% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price 6495, futures price 6483, basis 12, basis rate 0.97%, historical quantile 75.10% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price 2272, futures price 2272, basis 0, basis rate 0.0%, historical quantile 53.90% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price 1602, futures price 1560, basis - 42, basis rate - 2.25%, historical quantile 5.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price 6975, futures price 6874, basis 101, basis rate 1.86%, historical quantile 56.80% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price 6565, futures price 6551, basis 14, basis rate 0.21%, historical quantile 48.10% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price 4688, futures price 4600, basis 88, basis rate 1.88%, historical quantile 32.50% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price 2593.8, futures price 2344, basis 249.8, basis rate 5.41%, historical quantile 70.90% [1] - **LPG (PG2512)**: Spot price 4498, futures price 4220, basis 278, basis rate 6.21%, historical quantile 47.80% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Spot price 3380, futures price 3135, basis 245, basis rate 7.25%, historical quantile 93.40% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2512)**: Spot price 11000, futures price 10925, basis 75, basis rate 0.68%, historical quantile 61.40% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price 1095, futures price 1072, basis 23, basis rate 2.10%, historical quantile 66.59% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price 1209, futures price 1154, basis 55, basis rate 4.77%, historical quantile 18.90% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price 14695, futures price 14250, basis - 445, basis rate - 3.12%, historical quantile 73.33% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price 4514.2, futures price 4485.2, basis - 29, basis rate - 0.65%, historical quantile 13.90% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price 2967.8, futures price 2963, basis - 4.8, basis rate - 0.16%, historical quantile 35.10% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price 6863.2, futures price 7016.1, basis - 152.9, basis rate - 2.23%, historical quantile 0.50% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price 7020.8, futures price 7185.5, basis - 164.7, basis rate - 2.35%, historical quantile 7.80% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Spot price 102.37, futures price 99.94, basis - 0.02, basis rate - 0.02%, historical quantile 20.00% [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price 105.72, futures price 99.39, basis - 0.04, basis rate - 0.04%, historical quantile 21.80% [1] - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price 108.10, futures price 100.19, basis 0.05, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 21.10% [1] - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price 129.31, futures price 114.48, basis 0.28, basis rate 0.25%, historical quantile 37.50% [1]

黑色：暂时观望为宜 等待会议指引 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 核心观点：暂时观望为宜 等待会议指引 品种 行情观点 策略 板块综述：上周黑色板块走势非常分化，双焦价格上涨、钢材铁矿下跌，其中铁矿跌幅超过3%，品种间强弱关系为焦煤>焦炭>螺 纹>热卷>铁矿，一方面，关税阴云再起，大宗商品价格普跌，另一方面，钢材需求同比偏弱，铁矿到港增加致使港口库存大幅回升。 本周重点关注：（1）10月20-23日召开的二十届四中全会，涉及十五五规划；（2）钢材需求与去库情况；（3）关税政策变化，特朗 普在接受福克斯商业频道采访时承认，此前威胁对中国商品加征100%关税的措施"不可持续" 。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电与长流程成本以下，静态估值偏低；驱动方面，宏 | 回落做多，RB2601关注 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 观端，特朗普态度缓和、国内重磅会议召开在即，产业端，上周螺纹需求回升、产量略有下滑， | | | | ...

| | | | | | | | Hart Article Fix | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/20 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | | 1000 | ...

(责金属) 周五贵金属终于迎来调整，国际金价盘中一度下跌200美元，白银波动更大。 责金属中长期上行逻辑 稳固,短期波动风险极高,降低仓位,观望为主。目前中美贸易、俄鸟战争、美国停摆等问题均处 于谈判关键时期,关注进展对市场风险情绪的影响。 【铜】 上周五伦铜收回盘中跌幅，显示低位买兴韧性。贵金属创高背景下，铜在相对低位受到强关注。市 场继续关注中美经贸谈判进程,美国政府依然停摆,美股波动率上升。LMEO-3月现货贴水16美元。 沪铜在8.4万一线韧性较强,可以8.5万为短线强弱分界,观望。 (铝) 周五夜盘沪铝窄幅波动。国庆至今铝市库存表现处于往年中性水平，已恢复季节性去库，现货反馈 平淡。短期沪铝震荡测试前高阻力，需关注贵金属的调整是否给有色带来压力。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年10月20日 (原油) 上周国际油价延续下行,布伦特12合约跌1.21%。在中美贸易博弈愚而未决的背景下,三大机构10 月报进一步上调今明两年的盈余幅度,原油市场中期走势依然承压;地缘方面在加沙一阶段停火协 议达成后,美俄元首的会谈计划再次为俄乌和解创造契机,油市地缘风险溢价进一 ...

晨报 成材 逻辑：中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于 10 月 20 日 至 23 日在北京召开。主要议程：中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作， 研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研 究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。10 月 18 日，何立峰与美国财政 部长贝森特、贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方同意尽快举行新一轮中 美经贸磋商。上周，13 个省份的钢厂涉及产线检修、复产，其中检修产 线 3 条，环比减少 6 条，复产产线 8 条，环比增加 1 条，按照轧机日均产 量测算，产线检修影响产量 21.53 万吨，预计本周产线检修影响产量 6.38 万吨。上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.33%，环比减少 0.22 个 百分点，同比增加 2.34 个百分点；日均铁水产量 240.95 万吨，环比减少 0.59 万吨，同比增加 6.59 万吨。上周，全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均 产能利用率 53.2%，环比上升 2.13 个百分点，同比上升 1.32 个百分点。 平均开工率 68.85%，环比上升 1.79 个百分点，同比下降 0.73 个百分点。 证监许可【 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-20 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 2025-10-20 党的二十届四中全会今日召开 观点分享： 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京召开。主 要议程包括：中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划的建议；会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。基于《二〇三 五年远景目标》所提出的用"三个五年"基本实现社会主义现代化，"十五五"是承上启下 的关键五年。民生证券表示，即将传递出的重大信号包括，一是发挥集中力量办大事的制度 优势，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动；二是强国建设系统推进，金融强国建设有望作为科 技和制造业强国的协同战略加快推进；三是把因地制宜发展生产力放在更加突出的战略位置； 四是扩大内需更加强调保障和改善民生，提升消费率迎来综合施策；五是纵深推进全国统一 大市场建设。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关注指数 | | | 板块 | | ★★★★ | | | 期指 | | 期指：短线或反弹 ...

国务院印发的《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》提出，推动产业全要素智能化发展，助力传统 产业改造升级。 "智变"提升"含绿量"。当技术遇到绿色转型的时代命题，钢铁企业努力实现经济效益与生态效益的双重 跃升。梅钢智慧高炉系统实现碳排放降低5%、吨铁降本30元；河钢集团推出升级版碳中和数字化平 台，打造多功能多场景智能体，可实现能耗精准预测、碳配额需求分析效率翻倍。 中国工程院院士王国栋建议，钢铁行业应加快工业互联网、大数据、AI等技术融合，搭建能、环、碳 全流程一体化管控平台，实现从末端治理向源头和全过程人机协同、自主无人控制延伸，协同推进降 碳、减污、扩绿、增长。 业内人士认为，钢铁产业的"智变"早已超越技术应用意义，而是基因再造。 记者走访钢铁企业发现，昔日千人炼钢的火热场景，正悄然转化为控制室内冷静的"算法决策"：智能集 控中心实时分析数万条生产数据；热风炉智能燃烧系统通过人工智能技术动态调节炉温；智能机器人提 升产品缺陷查全率…… 当前，钢铁行业数智化应用场景日益丰富。中国钢铁工业协会发布的数据显示，95.1%的钢铁企业将数 字化转型战略纳入企业总体发展进程；82.9%的企业建设智能集控中心，63 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/20 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/10/13 | 3130 | 3210 | 3190 | 3150 | 3260 | 3220 | | 2025/10/14 | 3110 | 3200 | 3270 | 3130 | 3250 | 3210 | | 2025/10/15 | 3090 | 3180 | 3270 | 3130 | 3250 | 3210 | | 2025/10/16 | 3090 | 3180 | 3270 | 3130 | 3230 | 3210 | | 2025/10/17 | 3070 | 3210 | 3270 | 3130 | 3230 | 3210 | | 变化 | -20 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 ...