策 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 27 日 略 研 究 3 月日历效应：小微盘风格，农林、美容、医药 行业或相对占优 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 3 月日历效应：1）全 A 相对走平，小盘、微盘风格超额明显。2）行 业：农林、美容、医药占优，钢铁、石化、非银滞后。具体来看，宽基和 风格上，参考过去 10 年指数的月涨跌幅，同花顺全 A（加权）指数的 3 月 的平均的月绝对涨跌幅为 0.4%，相对有限。但从超额收益来看，风格上仍 有结构性亮点：小盘风格明显跑赢大盘风格，微盘风格明显跑赢全 A 指数。 行业指数上，参考过去 10 年指数的平均的月涨跌幅，3 月相对占优的有： 农林牧渔、美容护理、医药生物、计算机、公用事业；3 月相对滞后的有： 钢铁、石油石化、非银金融、电子、汽车。 团队成员 分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1.红利+：AH 双市轮动策略——2025.02.17 2. 反 转 策 略 ： 红 利 滞 涨 下 的 超 额 选 ...

Group 1 - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is innovating in overseas Chinese affairs to accelerate the high-quality development of enterprises related to overseas Chinese and promote rural revitalization policies [1][2] - Approximately 70% of foreign-invested enterprises in Guangxi are related to overseas Chinese, accounting for about 60% of the actual utilized foreign capital [1] - The Guangxi People's Congress is conducting research from June to September 2025 to promote high-quality development of overseas Chinese enterprises under the dual circulation market strategy, aiming to create a first-class business environment [1] Group 2 - The Guangxi People's Congress has successfully pushed for policies that include overseas Chinese agricultural and forestry farms in the financial support for rural revitalization, enhancing the policy environment for their development [2] - The "Contact Station + Overseas Chinese Affairs" model is being used to improve the standardization and institutionalization of contact points for representatives working on overseas Chinese affairs, fostering engagement from overseas Chinese business leaders [2] - In 2026, a special study on the high-quality development of overseas Chinese agricultural and forestry farms will be conducted to implement relevant laws and policies, aiming to deepen reforms and improve management systems [2]

Core Insights - Six listed companies in A-shares have recently exposed environmental risks, highlighting the increasing importance of environmental compliance in corporate operations [12][13]. Group 1: Environmental Violations and Penalties - Huayi Group was fined 288,000 yuan for exceeding sulfate discharge limits in wastewater, with sulfate levels recorded at 2,470 mg/L, significantly above the permitted 600 mg/L [10][16]. - Ningxin New Materials was penalized 280,000 yuan for failing to operate air pollution prevention facilities properly [18]. - China Energy Engineering was fined approximately 252,300 yuan for commencing construction without the necessary environmental impact assessment for a solar power project [20]. Group 2: Company and Market Impact - The six companies involved have a combined total of 779,500 shareholders, indicating potential investment risks associated with their environmental compliance issues [15]. - The environmental risks associated with these companies are becoming a significant concern for investors, as ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investment principles gain traction [20]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The penalties reflect the enforcement of environmental regulations, emphasizing the need for companies to adhere to pollution control standards and maintain transparency in their environmental practices [17][21]. - The increasing public and regulatory scrutiny on environmental information is supported by legal frameworks that promote transparency and public participation in environmental governance [21].

Group 1 - The market sentiment score has slightly decreased to 1.1 as of December 21, down from 1.35 the previous week, indicating a neutral outlook despite a recent rebound on Friday [1][6] - The overall sentiment index has shown significant improvement this week, with signs of a rebound in market trading activity [1][6] - The price-volume consistency indicator has improved, suggesting a better correlation between capital attention and stock price increases, although the risk appetite remains insufficient as indicated by the declining proportion of the STAR 50 index's trading volume [1][9] Group 2 - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market decreased by 9.86% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 17,604.84 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in market activity compared to the previous week [1][12] - The short-term scores for industries such as beauty care, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, agriculture, and retail have shown upward trends, with the communication sector having the highest short-term score of 79.66 [1][33] - The correlation between trading congestion and weekly price changes is strong, with high congestion sectors like retail and light manufacturing leading in gains, while sectors with lower congestion such as power equipment and computers lag behind [1][38] Group 3 - The current model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI showing a decline relative to the 20-day RSI, suggesting potential weakening of signals [1][42] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high for the phase, indicating increased risk appetite and active capital utilization in the market [1][22] - The main capital inflow has broken through the fluctuation range, reflecting a stronger willingness of institutional funds to enter the market, which supports a bullish momentum [1][28]

Core Viewpoint - Daxing District is positioned as a new plain city focused on "coordinated development," contributing to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaborative development strategy [1] Industry Development Strategy - Daxing District has outlined a "6+5+3" industrial development blueprint, focusing on six key industries: air transport economy, biomedicine, future energy, digital economy, commercial aerospace, and agricultural technology [2] - The district aims to establish six major industrial functional areas, including the Daxing Airport Economic Zone and the Daxing Biomedical Industry Base [2] Project and Investment Highlights - Daxing has successfully launched over 1,000 high-quality projects this year, leading the city in the number of enterprises migrating from outside Beijing and the number of significant projects exceeding 100 million [3] - The Daxing International Tourism Resort and major subway projects are among the significant initiatives that are now underway [3] Urban Development Initiatives - Daxing District is developing a series of boutique towns, including the Caiyu Digital Fashion Town, which integrates digital, fashion, and agricultural tourism [4] - The district is committed to enhancing its agricultural products' quality and value, focusing on local specialties like the Panggezhuang watermelon and the Anding mulberry [4] Garden City Planning - The planning for the Garden City Yongding Bay has commenced, aiming to create a model of integrated urban and industrial development over the next decade [5] - The project will feature a spatial framework that includes various urban and ecological elements, promoting a low-carbon and smart modern city [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China and New Zealand to accelerate bilateral economic and trade cooperation, particularly in advanced fields such as food science, low-carbon technology, agricultural economy, digital trade, and biopharmaceuticals [1][7]. Bilateral Trade Overview - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and New Zealand reached $20.15 billion, with China exporting $7.74 billion and importing $12.42 billion [2]. - From January to June 2025, the cumulative trade volume was $10.85 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, with exports from China decreasing by 1.6% and imports increasing by 10.8% [2]. Economic Cooperation Landscape - The economic relationship has evolved beyond traditional goods trade to include diversified cooperation in areas such as deep processing of agricultural products, technological innovation, green finance, and the digital economy [3]. - The implementation of the China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has led to a significant increase in bilateral trade, with nearly NZD 30 billion growth since its inception [3]. Trade Surplus and Policy Environment - New Zealand has maintained a trade surplus with China for eight consecutive years from 2017 to 2024, aided by the favorable policy environment created by the FTA [4]. - New Zealand's unique resources and technological advantages in food science, environmental protection, and agricultural economy have driven trade growth, particularly in dairy, meat, timber, fruits, and organic products [4]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Prospects - New Zealand has established a strategic advantage in bilateral cooperation with China through various pioneering initiatives, including being the first developed country to sign a comprehensive FTA with China [5]. - The upgraded FTA has significant implications for China's new development pattern and high-quality opening-up, facilitating cooperation in key areas like dairy and forestry [6]. Continued Cooperation and Future Directions - The ongoing benefits from the upgraded FTA are expected to inject continuous momentum into bilateral trade, with a focus on expanding market access and reducing institutional transaction costs [7]. - Future cooperation should prioritize advanced fields such as food science, low-carbon technology, agricultural economy, digital trade, and biopharmaceuticals, establishing a new model for South-South cooperation [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the role of carbon reduction market mechanisms in promoting ecological product value transformation and supporting high-quality rural revitalization in Guangdong Province [1][4] - The measures propose to enhance the carbon reduction market mechanism's support for ecological product value transformation by expanding the carbon inclusive methodology system and exploring region-specific carbon inclusive methodologies [1][3] - The development and reserve of carbon inclusive certified emission reductions (PHCER) in the agricultural and forestry sectors will be strengthened, encouraging projects to purchase provincial ecological carbon fixation PHCER and national certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][2] Group 2 - The measures highlight the importance of carbon footprint management in supporting high-quality rural revitalization, including the establishment of a carbon footprint database and management rules for agricultural and forestry ecological products [2][3] - Innovative financing support will be provided for agricultural and forestry ecological products with carbon labels, and government procurement standards will incorporate carbon footprint requirements [2][4] - The article discusses the establishment of a climate investment and financing project management system to support green low-carbon development in urban and rural areas, including the creation of a project library and recommendation mechanism [3][4] Group 3 - The launch of the "Guangdong Carbon Label Information Management Platform" aims to assist consumers in querying product carbon footprints and allows manufacturers to apply for their carbon labels online [3][6] - The platform serves both consumer and industrial product sectors, providing tools for better carbon emission management during production processes [3][4] - Guangdong's commitment to green development is reflected in its achievements in environmental quality improvement and the establishment of a comprehensive climate change management system [4]

Group 1 - The "Dream Building Youth Job Fair" was held on July 11, 2023, in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, aimed at promoting employment for 2025 graduates [1] - Over 50 key enterprises from the commerce and agriculture sectors participated, offering more than 1,500 job positions, with over 2,000 job seekers attending the event [1] - The job fair was organized by various government departments, including the Human Resources and Social Security Department and the Education Department, ensuring the authenticity of job postings through a dual verification mechanism [1] Group 2 - A special action plan was launched by the Human Resources and Social Security Department to enhance employment opportunities for 2025 graduates, requiring local HR departments to conduct at least one focused recruitment event before mid-July [2] - The job fair included innovative features such as a "Live Job Broadcast Zone" to engage online participants, attracting nearly 1,000 online attendees [1] - A "Career Guidance Zone" was established at the event, where provincial career guidance experts provided personalized one-on-one support to job seekers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of private investment as a barometer for the vitality of the private economy, highlighting recent initiatives in Henan Province to promote private investment through policy support and project promotion [1] Group 1: Investment Growth and Structure - In the first five months of this year, private investment in Henan Province increased by 9.7% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 9.7 percentage points and the provincial investment growth rate by 3.1 percentage points, accounting for approximately 60% of the province's fixed asset investment [1] - The investment structure is continuously optimizing, with significant growth in sectors such as electronic information, equipment manufacturing, and new energy vehicles, all maintaining growth rates above 20% [1] Group 2: Project Promotion - A total of 75 major projects with a total investment of 33 billion yuan have been publicly promoted to private capital, focusing on key areas such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, new infrastructure, urban construction, manufacturing, warehousing and logistics, agriculture, and social undertakings [1][2] - Specific projects include 4 transportation projects with a total investment of 2.7 billion yuan, 16 urban construction projects totaling 6.6 billion yuan, 25 manufacturing projects with an investment of 12.8 billion yuan, and 8 warehousing and logistics projects amounting to 4.4 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Characteristics of Promoted Projects - The promoted projects align with policy directions, with local governments prioritizing resource allocation and providing support for funding and land use [3] - The government is leading the promotion, encouraging private capital participation through various flexible methods such as controlling stakes and forming joint ventures [3] - The investment scale of the projects is moderate, with 46 projects in the 100 million to 500 million yuan range, 15 projects between 500 million and 1 billion yuan, and 7 projects exceeding 1 billion yuan, catering to various types of private investment entities [3] Group 4: Policy Support and Future Directions - The article outlines that the government is committed to breaking down barriers to private investment and establishing a regular mechanism for promoting projects to private capital [4] - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing support services and ensuring the efficient implementation of private investment projects, aiming to contribute significantly to the high-quality economic development of the province [4]