Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000. The macro environment has policy information disturbances, causing the market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal supports the rebound of alloys [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Macro**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, higher than the world average, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. Baosteel identified long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state-owned banks decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, showing a three - year downward trend [6]. - **Overseas**: The US postponed trade threats against China and considered sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Since mid - May, production has been on the rise. After the price rebound, inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons. Downstream hot metal production dropped significantly due to military parade production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the macro environment, the market is volatile. Coal strength supports alloy rebound. The silicon - manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the open interest of silicon - manganese futures contracts was 570,700 lots, an increase of 24,573 lots. The spread between the May - 1st contracts of silicon - manganese decreased by 4 points. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 3707 to 62,860, and the spread between the January contracts of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased by 32 points to 290 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 points [23]. 3. Industrial Chain - **Production**: According to Mysteel, the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 46.45%, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily average output was 30,405 tons, a decrease of 80 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 2.36% to 123,668 tons, and the national weekly supply decreased by 0.26% to 212,835 tons. Production has generally been rising since mid - May, with a slight decline this period [26]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the total inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 160,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 11,000 tons, etc. [31]. - **Upstream**: As of September 5, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/ton - degree. As of September 1, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 32,000 tons to 4.414 million tons. The arrival of South African manganese ore increased by 35% to 506,900 tons, while that from Australia decreased by 87.4% to 20,900 tons, etc. On September 5, the spot production cost in the northern region decreased by 10 to 5830 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in the southern region, the cost decreased by 10 to 6240 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33][41][44]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons week - on - week but an increase of 62,300 tons year - on - year. The silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to July [48].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Weekly Report: Cost Increase, Loss Expansion, Short - term Price Support" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Xu Yuhua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has increased and losses have expanded, providing short - term support for prices. The macro - environment has information disturbances from anti - involution policies, causing the futures market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal prices supports the rebound of alloys. The silicon ferrosilicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Macro Aspect**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise to over 40% by 2035. Baosteel will focus on long products and thick plates. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks has decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US has postponed trade threats against China and is considering sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Some Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: After the previous profit improvement, production has quickly recovered. Most manufacturers hedged earlier, and inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of blue charcoal and electricity has risen, while the overall demand for steel remains weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 315 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 390 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat the silicon ferrosilicon main contract as oscillating between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 39,388 lots. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 110, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 18,309, a decrease of 1,524. The Ningxia silicon ferrosilicon price was 5,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [9][11][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon basis was - 358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: This week (September 4), the national silicon ferrosilicon production capacity utilization rate was 36.34%, a decrease of 0.20%. The daily average production was 16,430 tons, an increase of 1.70%. The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 20,076.1 tons, a decrease of 2.42%. The national silicon ferrosilicon weekly supply was 115,000 tons [27]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the national silicon ferrosilicon inventory was 66,560 tons, an increase of 5.80%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 4,000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 1, the electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon ferrosilicon remained unchanged. As of September 4, the average price of blue charcoal in Ningxia remained unchanged. As of September 5, the spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 350 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the cost remained unchanged, and the profit decreased by 130 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills was 228,840 tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons. From January to July 2025, the total silicon ferrosilicon export volume was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The August silicon ferrosilicon tender price was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to July [44][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided with frequent shifts between long and short positions. In the short - term, the futures price is mainly determined by the industry, with a game between coke producers and steelmakers. The futures price is expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to treat the main coke contract as a volatile operation [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: China's electricity accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise above 40% by 2035. Baosteel identifies long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks is about 25 trillion yuan, shrinking by 107.8 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and declining for three consecutive years [8]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US suspends trade threats against China and considers sanctions on Russia. Trump signs a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions avoid US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [8]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water output is 228,840 tons, a decrease of 11,290 tons. Affected by steel - mill production control during the military parade, iron - water output drops significantly. The coal - mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking - coal inventory increases. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 64 yuan/ton [8]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the contract position increased by 3,487 lots, and the coke monthly spread increased by 18.5 points. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 300 lots, and the rebar - coke ratio increased by 0.03 points [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 4, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1,530 yuan/ton, and the coking - coal ex - factory price at the Ganqimaodu Port in Mongolia remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton. As of September 5, the coke basis was - 51.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 points [26]. - **Production Data**: In July, the raw - coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In July 2025, China's coking - coal output was 4.08938 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [28]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Coking Plant**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 64 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.61%, a decrease of 0.09%. The daily coke output is 51,210 tons, a decrease of 70 tons. Coke inventory is 40,710 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The total coking - coal inventory is 780,950 tons, a decrease of 38,920 tons. The available coking - coal days are 11.5 days, a decrease of 0.55 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 228,840 tons, a decrease of 11,290 tons from last week and an increase of 62,300 tons from last year. As of August 29, 2025, the total coke inventory is 8.5415 million tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 12.88% [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port coke inventory decreased by 79,000 tons, and the steel - mill coke inventory increased by 136,400 tons. The daily coke output of 247 steel mills is 45,720 tons, a decrease of 370 tons. The capacity utilization rate is 84.31%, a decrease of 0.68%. The available coke days are 11.71 days, an increase of 0.93 days [40]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - **Real Estate Data**: In July 2025, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week ending August 31, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.8485 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.64% and a year - on - year increase of 6.42% [47]. - **City - Level Real Estate**: As of the week ending August 31, the commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities was 531,500 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 31.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%. The transaction area of second - tier cities was 965,100 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.79% and a year - on - year increase of 17.68% [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Market Analysis - Multiple countries and regions have increased tariff frictions and imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, leading to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [4]. - China's steel industry holds an important position globally, with its crude steel output accounting for about 55% of the world's total in 2024, and has long accounted for over 50% [4]. - China's steel exports continue to show a growth trend. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and the billet export volume increased significantly [4]. - The export of high - value - added products in China has increased significantly. From January to July 2025, the export volume of thick plates and large - section steel increased by 10.7% and 38.9% respectively year - on - year [4]. - The structure of China's steel exports has changed. The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased [5]. - China's steel exports to North America and some countries that have imposed additional tariffs have continued to shrink, while exports to emerging economies have maintained growth [5][6]. Strategy - Pay attention to changes in steel export regions and objectively evaluate the resilience of China's steel exports and consumption [7]. Summary by Directory Preface - China's steel exports show strong resilience and adaptability. Facing challenges from anti - dumping investigations in traditional markets, China has accelerated the exploration of emerging markets, and the Belt and Road Initiative has provided strategic support [14]. Part One: Anti - Dumping Investigation on Chinese Steel Exports by Some Countries and Regions - Since 2025, economies such as India, the EU, the US, and Vietnam have launched anti - dumping investigations or made anti - dumping rulings on various high - value - added steel products from China, which may lead to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [15]. Part Two: China's Crude Steel Output Holds an Important Position Globally - China's crude steel output reached a record high in 2020 and decreased in 2021 and 2022. In 2024, it was 1.005 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. China's crude steel output accounts for over 50% of the world's total [18][19]. Part Three: China's Steel Export Volume Continues to Show a Growth Trend - Despite the challenges of global trade protectionism and anti - dumping measures, China's steel export volume has continued to grow. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.4%. The export of high - value - added products has also increased significantly [26][37]. Part Four: Changes in China's Crude Steel Export Structure - The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased significantly, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased, indicating a shift from pursuing quantity growth to structural optimization [41]. Part Five: China's Steel Exports Are Shifting to Emerging Markets - China's steel export destination is shifting from traditional developed markets to emerging markets. Exports to North America have decreased, while exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America have increased [49]. Part Six: Conclusion - Multiple countries and regions have imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, and the global steel trade pattern is facing a new round of adjustment. China's steel industry holds an important position globally, and its steel exports continue to grow. The export structure is changing, with a shift towards emerging markets [83][84].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in revenue and a modest profit increase in the first half of 2025, reflecting challenges in the steel industry due to market conditions and pricing pressures [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of approximately 36.81 billion RMB, a decrease of 18.60% compared to the same period last year [2][4]. - Total profit reached approximately 292.50 million RMB, an increase of 13.53 billion RMB year-on-year [2][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 12.53 million RMB, an increase of 9.81 billion RMB compared to the previous year [2][9]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was approximately 2.82 billion RMB, an increase of 88.31% year-on-year [2][9]. Industry Overview - The steel market experienced a downward trend, with average steel prices falling by 7.4% as of June 30, 2025 [4][5]. - China's crude steel production decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, totaling 51.48 million tons in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - The steel industry saw a significant profit recovery, with total profits for key steel enterprises reaching approximately 592 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 63.26% [5][6]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Steel inventory levels were at their lowest in nearly four years, averaging 18.91 million tons for key enterprises [5]. - The demand structure showed a divergence, with the real estate sector's steel demand remaining weak, while the automotive and home appliance sectors continued to grow [5][6]. - The automotive industry's steel demand is expected to reach 59.80 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [5]. Cost and Profitability - The steel industry's profitability improved significantly, with the average profit margin rising by 0.83 percentage points year-on-year to 1.97% [6]. - Raw material prices, including coke and iron ore, saw declines, contributing to improved profitability [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and cost control through strategic procurement and market-oriented reforms [9][10]. - There is an ongoing emphasis on innovation and product development, with 47 new products developed during the reporting period [11][12]. - The company is also advancing its green transformation initiatives, with significant investments in energy efficiency and environmental performance [12][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported significant performance recovery with a focus on optimizing product structure. In H1 2025, revenue was 63.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.748 billion yuan, an increase of 31.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing a decline in steel sales but has seen a notable recovery in gross margin, which reached 10.28% in H1 2025, up 2.91 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the total steel sales volume was 11.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year. Major product categories saw declines, except for coated steel [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 10.28%, with long products, flat products, and pipes showing respective margins of 5.45%, 13.65%, and 10.89%, all increasing year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is releasing high-end production capacity, with projects like the cold-rolled silicon steel line and seamless steel pipe production line progressing steadily. The first phase of the non-oriented silicon steel is expected to be operational by August 2025 [3]. - The product structure is being optimized, with key product sales accounting for 68.5% of total sales, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company has developed 75 new products, achieving six domestic firsts or import substitutions [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is implementing cost reduction measures across its operations, with 32% of its economic and technical indicators entering the advanced category. Adjustments in structure have led to a reduction in procurement costs by approximately 250 million yuan [4]. - The self-generated electricity reached 4.922 billion kWh in the reporting period, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, contributing to operational efficiency [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.465 billion yuan, 3.993 billion yuan, and 4.434 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 9x [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. steel industry is currently experiencing a tight supply situation driven by tariff policies, leading to a short-term maintenance of high steel prices and a potential long-term upward shift in price levels [1][3]. Supply - The U.S. is the only major market globally with a tight supply and high reliance on imports, with an estimated net import volume accounting for about 20% of consumption in 2024, making it the largest net importer [3][21]. - The U.S. steel supply is characterized by a high proportion of electric arc furnace (EAF) steel, with around 70% of crude steel production coming from EAFs, significantly higher than the global average of 30% [3][5]. - Approximately 7 million tons of crude steel capacity is expected to be released in the medium term, primarily from EAFs, which may partially replace imports and maintain a healthy and flexible supply [3][19]. Demand - The automotive sector represents a significant portion of U.S. steel demand, with an estimated consumption of 89 million tons in 2024, where construction, automotive, and machinery account for approximately 44%, 28%, and 9% respectively [4][33]. - Policy-driven improvements in demand are anticipated, particularly in non-residential construction and automotive sectors, due to tariffs on imported vehicles and increased domestic production [4][39]. Price - U.S. hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have increased by 35% since the beginning of 2025, reaching $900 per ton, with expectations of maintaining high prices in the short term due to tariff impacts [1][42]. - The price of U.S. steel is influenced by trade protection policies, with a potential for upward movement in the long term as EAF production increases and the supply of quality scrap steel becomes a critical resource [47][48]. Industry Dynamics - The U.S. steel industry has undergone significant consolidation, with the top four companies controlling over 80% of the market share, a trend that has intensified since 2000 [5][15]. - The recent acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is expected to have profound implications for all stakeholders involved, including potential improvements in competitiveness and market share for U.S. Steel [48][49].

Group 1 - The trend of transferring technology and production capacity from Chinese steel mills to Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is expected to continue, leveraging local resources and tariff advantages [1][6] - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S., significantly lower than the previously announced 46% tariff [1] - Vietnam is projected to become the largest export destination for Chinese steel in 2024, accounting for 11.5% of total steel exports [2][3] Group 2 - In 2024, China's steel exports are expected to reach 110.72 million tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [2] - The export volume to Vietnam has shown a significant decline in early 2025, with a 25.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [4][5] - The steel trade friction between China and countries like Vietnam and South Korea is increasing, with Vietnam imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products [3][4] Group 3 - The ASEAN region is experiencing strong demand for steel, particularly driven by Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, with total demand expected to reach approximately 80 million tons by 2025 [5][6] - Chinese steel companies are accelerating overseas investments, with notable projects in Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, indicating a strategic shift towards international production [6] - The Chinese steel industry is advised to maintain a balanced export strategy that meets domestic needs while also catering to international market demands [7]

Summary of Baosteel Co., Ltd. Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry experienced significant losses in the first half of 2024, but saw a rebound at the end of September due to policy drivers. However, it faced a weak supply-demand situation again by year-end [2][4] - In the first four months of 2025, industry profits showed some recovery, but the second half of Q2 is expected to face downward pressure on steel prices due to insufficient demand and trade war tariffs [2][4] Company Performance - Baosteel Co., Ltd. reported a total profit of 9.3 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024, with a profit of 3.29 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, primarily due to lower raw material costs [2][5] - The company maintained its leading position in the domestic industry despite a challenging environment [4][21] Strategic Initiatives - Baosteel has increased its stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. to enhance product competitiveness and sales capabilities, transitioning from a 1+1+n strategy to a 2+2+m strategy focusing on automotive sheets, silicon steel, and high-end long products [2][6] - The Baowu Group aims to add nearly 30 million tons of new capacity through investments in Maanshan (16 million tons), Rizhao (9 million tons), and a joint venture in Saudi Arabia (planned 2.5 million tons DRI capacity) [2][7][8] Product Focus - The choice to focus on thick plates is driven by local demand in Saudi Arabia for marine engineering and shipbuilding, aligning with the country's 2030 vision for large-scale infrastructure development [8] - Baosteel's product lines include automotive and silicon steel, with good order intake in Q2 2025, although competition in low-grade silicon steel remains intense [10][11] Market Challenges - The steel market has been characterized by weak demand and price fluctuations, with cold-rolled product prices peaking in Q1 2025 before declining due to demand exhaustion and trade war impacts [12][19] - The company is actively responding to international tariffs and trade conflicts by exploring new markets and adjusting export structures to mitigate risks [14][21] Financial Outlook - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly from 2026 onwards, potentially enhancing the company's ability to increase dividends [15][16] - The company aims to optimize existing capacity rather than expand further, focusing on improving efficiency and profitability [9][20] Collaboration and Competition - Baosteel is addressing competition with Maanshan by enhancing collaboration in marketing and sales, aiming to reduce reliance on intermediaries and improve overall profitability [17] - The company remains vigilant regarding international trade policies and their potential impacts on sales and market dynamics [13][14] Conclusion - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is navigating a challenging steel market with strategic investments, a focus on product optimization, and proactive measures to mitigate external risks, while maintaining profitability and preparing for future growth opportunities [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][26]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a decline in net profit by 38% in 2024, with revenue projected at 322.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year. However, the company maintains a strong cash flow with operating cash flow increasing by 9.6% to 27.74 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 2.15 billion yuan in the second half of 2024, which, along with previously distributed cash dividends and share buybacks, will total 5.31 billion yuan, representing 72.1% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5][6]. - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and maintaining stable operations despite industry pressures, with steel sales expected to remain flat at 51.6 million tons in 2024 [6][26]. Financial Performance and Projections - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 322.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.36 billion yuan, with a significant recovery expected in 2025, where net profit is forecasted to rise to 9.75 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.4% [3][26]. - The company plans to produce 48.79 million tons of iron and 52.61 million tons of steel in 2025, with total revenue expected to reach 312 billion yuan [6][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.6x [26][27].