专题报告|2025-08-25 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 关税摩擦对中国钢材出口影响分析 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 近年来，多个国家和地区对中国钢材产品发起反倾销调查并加征关税，这一变化对中国 钢铁出口的格局和流向产生影响。中国对北美地区的钢材出口量明显萎缩，对南美洲、 非洲和东南亚等地区出口保持增长趋势。中国作为全球最大的钢铁生产国，具备产业链 优势，同时中国主动调整钢铁产品出口结构。关税摩擦对中国部分钢材出口产生影响， 但是在中国钢铁行业产业链具备显著优势的情况下，钢材出口总量仍保持增长，后续仍 需关注各国关税变化及对间接出口产生的影响。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 关税摩擦增加，多个国家和地区对中国钢材产品加征关税。全球多个国家及地区针对中 国钢材产品推出一系列关税 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported significant performance recovery with a focus on optimizing product structure. In H1 2025, revenue was 63.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.748 billion yuan, an increase of 31.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing a decline in steel sales but has seen a notable recovery in gross margin, which reached 10.28% in H1 2025, up 2.91 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the total steel sales volume was 11.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year. Major product categories saw declines, except for coated steel [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 10.28%, with long products, flat products, and pipes showing respective margins of 5.45%, 13.65%, and 10.89%, all increasing year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is releasing high-end production capacity, with projects like the cold-rolled silicon steel line and seamless steel pipe production line progressing steadily. The first phase of the non-oriented silicon steel is expected to be operational by August 2025 [3]. - The product structure is being optimized, with key product sales accounting for 68.5% of total sales, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company has developed 75 new products, achieving six domestic firsts or import substitutions [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is implementing cost reduction measures across its operations, with 32% of its economic and technical indicators entering the advanced category. Adjustments in structure have led to a reduction in procurement costs by approximately 250 million yuan [4]. - The self-generated electricity reached 4.922 billion kWh in the reporting period, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, contributing to operational efficiency [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.465 billion yuan, 3.993 billion yuan, and 4.434 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 9x [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. steel industry is currently experiencing a tight supply situation driven by tariff policies, leading to a short-term maintenance of high steel prices and a potential long-term upward shift in price levels [1][3]. Supply - The U.S. is the only major market globally with a tight supply and high reliance on imports, with an estimated net import volume accounting for about 20% of consumption in 2024, making it the largest net importer [3][21]. - The U.S. steel supply is characterized by a high proportion of electric arc furnace (EAF) steel, with around 70% of crude steel production coming from EAFs, significantly higher than the global average of 30% [3][5]. - Approximately 7 million tons of crude steel capacity is expected to be released in the medium term, primarily from EAFs, which may partially replace imports and maintain a healthy and flexible supply [3][19]. Demand - The automotive sector represents a significant portion of U.S. steel demand, with an estimated consumption of 89 million tons in 2024, where construction, automotive, and machinery account for approximately 44%, 28%, and 9% respectively [4][33]. - Policy-driven improvements in demand are anticipated, particularly in non-residential construction and automotive sectors, due to tariffs on imported vehicles and increased domestic production [4][39]. Price - U.S. hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have increased by 35% since the beginning of 2025, reaching $900 per ton, with expectations of maintaining high prices in the short term due to tariff impacts [1][42]. - The price of U.S. steel is influenced by trade protection policies, with a potential for upward movement in the long term as EAF production increases and the supply of quality scrap steel becomes a critical resource [47][48]. Industry Dynamics - The U.S. steel industry has undergone significant consolidation, with the top four companies controlling over 80% of the market share, a trend that has intensified since 2000 [5][15]. - The recent acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel is expected to have profound implications for all stakeholders involved, including potential improvements in competitiveness and market share for U.S. Steel [48][49].

Group 1 - The trend of transferring technology and production capacity from Chinese steel mills to Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is expected to continue, leveraging local resources and tariff advantages [1][6] - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S., significantly lower than the previously announced 46% tariff [1] - Vietnam is projected to become the largest export destination for Chinese steel in 2024, accounting for 11.5% of total steel exports [2][3] Group 2 - In 2024, China's steel exports are expected to reach 110.72 million tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [2] - The export volume to Vietnam has shown a significant decline in early 2025, with a 25.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [4][5] - The steel trade friction between China and countries like Vietnam and South Korea is increasing, with Vietnam imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products [3][4] Group 3 - The ASEAN region is experiencing strong demand for steel, particularly driven by Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, with total demand expected to reach approximately 80 million tons by 2025 [5][6] - Chinese steel companies are accelerating overseas investments, with notable projects in Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, indicating a strategic shift towards international production [6] - The Chinese steel industry is advised to maintain a balanced export strategy that meets domestic needs while also catering to international market demands [7]

Summary of Baosteel Co., Ltd. Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry experienced significant losses in the first half of 2024, but saw a rebound at the end of September due to policy drivers. However, it faced a weak supply-demand situation again by year-end [2][4] - In the first four months of 2025, industry profits showed some recovery, but the second half of Q2 is expected to face downward pressure on steel prices due to insufficient demand and trade war tariffs [2][4] Company Performance - Baosteel Co., Ltd. reported a total profit of 9.3 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024, with a profit of 3.29 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, primarily due to lower raw material costs [2][5] - The company maintained its leading position in the domestic industry despite a challenging environment [4][21] Strategic Initiatives - Baosteel has increased its stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. to enhance product competitiveness and sales capabilities, transitioning from a 1+1+n strategy to a 2+2+m strategy focusing on automotive sheets, silicon steel, and high-end long products [2][6] - The Baowu Group aims to add nearly 30 million tons of new capacity through investments in Maanshan (16 million tons), Rizhao (9 million tons), and a joint venture in Saudi Arabia (planned 2.5 million tons DRI capacity) [2][7][8] Product Focus - The choice to focus on thick plates is driven by local demand in Saudi Arabia for marine engineering and shipbuilding, aligning with the country's 2030 vision for large-scale infrastructure development [8] - Baosteel's product lines include automotive and silicon steel, with good order intake in Q2 2025, although competition in low-grade silicon steel remains intense [10][11] Market Challenges - The steel market has been characterized by weak demand and price fluctuations, with cold-rolled product prices peaking in Q1 2025 before declining due to demand exhaustion and trade war impacts [12][19] - The company is actively responding to international tariffs and trade conflicts by exploring new markets and adjusting export structures to mitigate risks [14][21] Financial Outlook - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly from 2026 onwards, potentially enhancing the company's ability to increase dividends [15][16] - The company aims to optimize existing capacity rather than expand further, focusing on improving efficiency and profitability [9][20] Collaboration and Competition - Baosteel is addressing competition with Maanshan by enhancing collaboration in marketing and sales, aiming to reduce reliance on intermediaries and improve overall profitability [17] - The company remains vigilant regarding international trade policies and their potential impacts on sales and market dynamics [13][14] Conclusion - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is navigating a challenging steel market with strategic investments, a focus on product optimization, and proactive measures to mitigate external risks, while maintaining profitability and preparing for future growth opportunities [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][26]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a decline in net profit by 38% in 2024, with revenue projected at 322.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year. However, the company maintains a strong cash flow with operating cash flow increasing by 9.6% to 27.74 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 2.15 billion yuan in the second half of 2024, which, along with previously distributed cash dividends and share buybacks, will total 5.31 billion yuan, representing 72.1% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5][6]. - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and maintaining stable operations despite industry pressures, with steel sales expected to remain flat at 51.6 million tons in 2024 [6][26]. Financial Performance and Projections - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 322.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.36 billion yuan, with a significant recovery expected in 2025, where net profit is forecasted to rise to 9.75 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.4% [3][26]. - The company plans to produce 48.79 million tons of iron and 52.61 million tons of steel in 2025, with total revenue expected to reach 312 billion yuan [6][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.6x [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is expanding its steel production capacity through strategic investments, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and product quality while navigating a challenging market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Capacity Expansion - Baosteel announced an investment of 9 billion yuan to acquire a 49% stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., which will increase its controlled steel production capacity to over 80 million tons [1]. - The company plans to achieve a steel production capacity of 80 to 100 million tons by 2025, compared to China's total crude steel output of approximately 1.005 billion tons last year [1]. - Baosteel also acquired a 48.6% stake in Shandong Steel Group Rizhao Co., Ltd. for 10.703 billion yuan, making it the second-largest shareholder [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the previous year, Baosteel reported revenue of 322.1 billion yuan, a 6% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.3 billion yuan, down 38%, marking the lowest profit since 2015 [2]. - Despite the decline, Baosteel remained the most profitable listed steel company in China, while Maanshan Iron & Steel reported a loss of 4.17 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Strategic Product Development - Baosteel's previous product strategy was "1+1+N," focusing on automotive sheets, silicon steel, and other high-margin products, which accounted for 60% of total sales [3]. - The company has revised its product strategy to "2+2+N," adding long products and thick plates, with a sales target of 32.59 million tons for this year [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Export Performance - The domestic steel industry is expected to see a 2% decline in total demand this year, with construction steel demand continuing to decrease while manufacturing steel demand shows slight growth [4]. - Baosteel's steel exports reached a record high of 6.07 million tons last year, accounting for 12% of total sales, with a target of maintaining exports above 6 million tons this year [5].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2024年实现营收3221.16亿元，同比-6.50%，归母净利润73.62亿元，同比-38.36%；2024Q4实现营收792.60亿 元，环比-0.43%，同比-11.43%，归母净利润14.80亿元，环比+10.63%，同比-58.82%；2025Q1实现营收728.80 亿元，环比-8.05%，同比-9.82%；归母净利润24.34亿元，环比+64.49%，同比+26.37%。 2024年公司钢材产量同比-1.02%，吨钢毛利-19.68% 四大基地持续建设品种钢产能，公司产品结构有望持续升级 2025 年，公司预算安排固定资产投资资金239.1亿元，主要用于宝山基地无取向硅钢产品结构优化（三步）、 超高等级取 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baosteel Co., Ltd. (宝钢股份) [4][6] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit margin of 3.5% in Q1, marking a new high in nearly five quarters, enhancing the long-term investment value through increased dividend certainty [1] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 322.12 billion, a decrease of 6.50% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 7.36 billion, down 38.36% year-on-year [1][4] - The company plans to invest CNY 23.91 billion in fixed assets in 2025, focusing on optimizing product structure and expanding production capacity [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the steel production volume was 51.41 million tons, a decrease of 1.02% year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of CNY 167, down 19.68% year-on-year [2] - The company’s cash dividend plan for 2024-2026 is set at no less than CNY 0.20 per share, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 61.34% in 2024 [3] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 10.64 billion, CNY 12.05 billion, and CNY 13.81 billion respectively [4] Investment Strategy - The company aims for a product sales target of 32.59 million tons in 2025, with an export sales ratio exceeding 10% [2] - The company plans to acquire a 49% stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. for a total investment of CNY 90 billion [3] - The report highlights the company's focus on returning value to shareholders through dividends and strategic investments [3][4]