文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ，前值为 50.5% 。具体分项来看： 1 ） PMI 生产指数为 49.8% ，前值为 52.6% ，回落 2.8 个百分点。 2 ） PMI 新订单指数为 49.2% ，前值为 51.8% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7% ，前值为 49.0% 。 3 ） PMI 从业人员指数为 47.9% ，前值为 48.2% 。 4 ）供货商配送时间指数 为 50.2% ，前值为 50.3% 。 5 ） PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0% ，前值为 47.2% 。 其他行业： 1 ）建筑业：建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9% ，比上月下降 1.5 个百分点。 2 ）服务业：服务业 商务活动指数为 50.1% ，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3 ）综合产出： 4 月，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2% ，比上月下降 1.2 个百分点，仍高于临界点。 PMI 点评：三类行业继续 ...

Economic Indicators - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped significantly by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0%, marking the lowest level since June 2023[3] - The new orders index fell sharply by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, while new export orders decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest since 2023[3] - The production index declined by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, reaching a 23-month low[3] Sector Performance - The inventory index for finished goods decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, remaining near a low of 47.7% for four consecutive months[4] - The construction PMI fell by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, but the civil engineering index rose by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating increased infrastructure investment[4] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 to 50.1, maintaining stability in service consumption[4] Future Outlook - The report suggests a potential slight rebound in manufacturing PMI in May and June due to expectations of a second round of export grabbing and marginal improvements in real estate supply-side confidence[5] - If export pressures increase later in the year, the central government may expand fiscal measures to stimulate consumption and investment[5] - The monetary policy forecast remains unchanged, with a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points in Q2 and a total reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100-150 basis points for the year[5]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In April, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49%, down from 50.5% in March[7] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, compared to 50.8% in the previous month[7] - The new export orders index dropped significantly by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating potential pressure on future exports[2] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The new orders index declined to 49.2%, while the production index remained near the threshold at 49.8%, suggesting weak demand but relatively high production levels[2] - Internal demand showed resilience, with the domestic orders index only down 2.3 percentage points to 49.9%[2] - Despite a decline in new export orders, foreign trade cargo volume increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3%, attributed to prior "export rush" orders[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Key sectors like high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant PMI declines of 0.8 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, while the consumer goods sector's PMI fell only 0.6 percentage points to 49.4%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in real estate, although infrastructure construction accelerated[3] - The service sector PMI experienced a minor decline of 0.2 percentage points to 50.1%, supported by strong performance in productive service industries[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report highlights increased uncertainty in external demand due to tariff hikes, while emphasizing the need to monitor changes in domestic demand[4] - The central political bureau meeting in April stressed the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, indicating potential support for domestic demand in manufacturing[4]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 三类行业继续保持扩张态势 ——4 月 PMI 数据点评 ❖ PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，前值为 50.5%。具体分项来看：1）PMI 生产指数 为 49.8%，前值为 52.6%，回落 2.8 个百分点。2）PMI 新订单指数为 49.2%， 前值为 51.8%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7%，前值为 49.0%。3） PMI 从业 人员指数为 47.9%，前值为 48.2%。4）供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，前值为 50.3%。5）PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0%，前值为 47.2%。 其他行业：1）建筑业：建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%，比上月下降 1.5 个百 分点。2）服务业：服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3）综合产出：4 月，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，比上月下降 1.2 个百分点， 仍高于临界点。 ❖ PMI 点评：三类行业继续保持扩张态势 （一）外部环境急剧变化影响下，部分指标出现下滑 4 月，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加 ...

制造业PMI有所回落 4月制造业PMI比3月下降1.5个百分点，分项数据显示，制造业市场需求有所放缓。4月，新出口订单指 数为44.7%，较3月下降4.3个百分点；新订单指数为49.2%，较3月下降2.6个百分点。 中国物流信息中心分析师文韬表示，国外需求短期收紧拖累了我国制造业整体市场需求。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，从全球范围看，受贸易环境不确定性增大影响，主 要经济体制造业景气度普遍位于收缩区间，美国供应管理协会发布的3月份美国制造业PMI为49.0%，有 关机构发布的4月份欧元区、英国、日本制造业PMI初值均低于临界点。 制造业PMI中生产指数和价格指数也有所下降。4月，制造业生产指数为49.8%，比3月下降2.8个百分 点。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，比3月下降2.8和3.1个百分点，制 造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。 "制造业价格指数有所下降，主要受到市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响。"赵 庆河表示。 国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会4月30日发布数据显示，4月，制造业PMI为49%， 比3月下降1.5个百 ...

4月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 （四）预期指数保持扩张。生产经营活动预期指数为52.1%，继续位于扩张区间。部分行业企业对近期 发展信心较强，其中食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经营活动预期指数 均位于58.0%及以上较高景气区间。 非制造业商务活动指数继续保持扩张 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数 2025年4月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 4月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 4月份，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，制造业PMI为49.0%， 回落至临界点以下。 （一）产需两端均有放缓。生产指数和新订单指数分别为49.8%和49.2%，比上月下降2.8和2.6个百分 点，制造业生产和市场需求均有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶、 ...

(二)高技术制造业持续向好。从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平， 其生产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上，高技术制造业延续较好发展态势。装备制造业、消费品 行业和高耗能行业PMI分别为49.6%、49.4%和47.7%，比上月下降2.4、0.6和1.6个百分点，景气水平不 同程度回落。 (三)价格指数有所下降。受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响，主要原材料购 进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，比上月下降2.8和3.1个百分点，制造业市场价格总体 水平有所下降。 4月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 非制造业商务活动指数继续保持扩张 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数 2025年4月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 4月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 一、制造业采购经理 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年4月中国采购经理指数。 4月份，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，制造业PMI为49.0%， 回落至临界点以下。从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平，其生产指 数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上，高技术制造业延续较好发展态势。装备制造业、消费品行业和高 耗能行业PMI分别为49.6%、49.4%和47.7%，比上月下降2.4、0.6和1.6个百分点，景气水平不同程度回 落。 受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，制造业PMI为回落至临界点以 下 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between PMI and EPMI is primarily due to the differentiation in the economic conditions of emerging and traditional industries, with the former showing stronger performance in March [1][8]. Manufacturing Sector - In March, the manufacturing PMI increased moderately by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5%, which is below market expectations [1][8]. - The EPMI for strategic emerging industries rose significantly by 10.6 percentage points to 59.6%, indicating a strong recovery in these sectors [1][8]. - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw substantial PMI increases of 1.4 and 1.2 percentage points, reaching 52.3% and 52% respectively, while traditional sectors like consumer goods manufacturing only saw a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points to 50% [2][13]. - The production index for EPMI surged by 21.6 percentage points, contrasting with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in the manufacturing PMI production index, which reached 52.6% [2][17]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.8%, with the construction sector's PMI increasing by 0.7 percentage points to 53.4%, although this was weaker than seasonal expectations [3][5]. - The service sector's PMI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.3%, but this was also below the same period in previous years [3][5]. - The construction sector remains constrained by weak real estate investment, while the service sector is limited by the performance of life services [3][22]. Future Outlook - There are increasing risks to exports, but potential improvements in the economy may arise from accelerated import substitution and recovery in the service sector and real estate sales [3][31]. - The manufacturing sector may receive support from accelerated import substitution in industries like electrical and mechanical equipment, while the construction and service sectors show signs of recovery [3][31]. Regular Tracking - The manufacturing PMI continues to show a mild recovery, with production and new order indices slightly increasing [4][37]. - The non-manufacturing PMI reflects a general improvement, with both construction and service sectors showing slight increases [5][46].

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