| 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、美国市场基本面 | 4 | | 三、国际 LNG | 市场基本面情况 6 | | 四、后市展望 | 8 | | | 免责声明 9 | 能化板块研发报告 天然气 11 月报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 冬季前平静的市场下暗流涌动 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 美国方面今年整体产量增长较快，阿巴拉契亚和海恩斯维尔贡献较大， 上半年补库需求支撑价格维持高位，当库存恢复健康水平后 HH 价格承压， 然而 10 月下旬产量明显下滑，主要来自于海恩斯维尔，液化需求进一步上升， 叠加天气预期转冷，整体情绪带动价格大幅反弹。 国际 LNG 方面在地缘政治风险情绪基本褪去后，欧洲的低库存以及亚洲 疲软的需求使得在 JKM/TTF 价格近期一直维持在 11 美元/MMBTU 附近。 【市场展望】 美国方面，前期补库使得库存水平已接近五年来的峰值，入冬前高库存 水平会对价格产生一定压力。明年的市场价格中枢更多看 26 年出冬时的库 ...

辽河储气库群担负着东北和京津冀地区天然气季节调峰任务。近年来，随着老库持续扩容上产、新 库加快建设、注采气装置规模不断扩大，库群调峰能力进一步增强。据介绍，新一轮采气将于11月中上 旬正式开始。（记者 白涌泉） 记者从中国石油辽河油田（盘锦）储气库有限公司获悉，辽河储气库群近日完成第十二轮注气任 务，已连续四轮注气量超过30亿立方米，为东北及京津冀地区冬季保供"蓄能"。 为安全高效完成本轮注采转换，生产运行部门提前做好调查摸底、准备物料等工作。据统计，目前 已完成了近2800台套设备检修和近千公里管线巡护工作。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for various sectors including hydropower, green electricity, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas power [4][9][44]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading price in Q3 compared to Q1 [8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the US Henry Hub spot price reaching a near six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [11][12]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in gas consumption growth in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and high demand expectations, despite a 1.6% year-on-year decline in September gas consumption [32][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - In September 2025, 229 million green electricity certificates were issued, with 68.86% being tradable [4][8]. - The report highlights the improvement in market mechanisms and the growing demand for renewable energy consumption [8]. 2. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the US Henry Hub spot price increased by 11.16% week-on-week, while European prices showed a decline [11][12]. - The report notes a 1.6% year-on-year decrease in national gas consumption in September, with expectations for growth in Q4 2025 due to favorable weather conditions [32][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include hydropower companies such as Guotou Power and Chuanwei Energy, green electricity firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, and gas companies including Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [9][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the gas sector due to declining costs and rising demand [33][44].

Core Insights - China's LNG imports through coastal receiving stations totaled approximately 1.06 million tons from October 27 to November 2, a decrease from the previous week's 1.3 million tons [1] Group 1: LNG Import Data - During the week of October 27 to November 2, China imported LNG from 7 countries, with Australia supplying 8 vessels, accounting for about 52% of the total imports [4] - The highest volume of LNG was received at the Shenzhen Dapeng LNG receiving station, which handled 3 vessels totaling approximately 190,000 tons [4] - For the upcoming week of November 3 to November 9, it is projected that China will import 26 vessels of LNG, with an estimated total volume of 1.87 million tons [4] Group 2: Vessel and Source Information - A detailed list of vessels and their respective export countries and receiving stations is provided, indicating a diverse range of sources including Qatar, Australia, and Russia [3][6] - The data highlights the significant role of Australia as a key supplier, with multiple shipments scheduled for the upcoming week [6] Group 3: E-Gas System Overview - The E-Gas system, developed by the China Economic Information Service in collaboration with the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange Center, offers comprehensive information services focused on the energy sector, including real-time statistics on LNG international trade [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

刘刚副主任指出，国家发展改革委高度重视天然气供需和价格情况变化，开展天然气价格监测对稳定市 场价格、预警价格异动将发挥重要作用。目前看，本供暖季供需环境与去年比相对宽松，但综合专家意 见，也存在一些值得关注的问题。会上，各专家分别从不同角度对本供暖季天然气供需的情况及价格形 势发表了自己的看法，对如何保供稳价提出近期和中长期的有针对性的意见。国际处同志参加会议。 经济观察网 据发改委价格监测中心，为做好本年度供暖季天然气供需及价格形势研判工作，10月28日 价格监测中心召开专家座谈会，邀请国家管网、中石油、中石化、上海石油天然气交易中心、重庆石油 天然气交易中心、资讯机构、燃气公司等13个相关机构及企业的专家共同研究本年度供暖季天然气供需 和今后价格走势。刘刚副主任主持会议并讲话。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Xingyao Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the natural gas and energy sectors, focusing on the performance of Xingyao Co., Ltd. in these industries. Key Points and Arguments Natural Gas Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total natural gas sales volume increased by 5.2% to 30.203 billion cubic meters, with retail gas rising from 18.82 billion cubic meters to 19.19 billion cubic meters [4][12] - Industrial gas consumption grew by 2.5% to 15.21 billion cubic meters, while residential gas consumption increased by 1.5% to 3.8 billion cubic meters [4][12] Platform Gas Trading - The total platform gas trading volume remained stable at 3.95 billion cubic meters, with international sales at 1.43 billion cubic meters and domestic sales at 2.52 billion cubic meters [2][6] - The average price difference for the first three quarters was 0.36 CNY per cubic meter, a decrease of 0.04 CNY year-on-year, but still within a reasonable range [2][6] Resource Pool Optimization - The company optimized its resource pool structure, with 70% of resources sourced domestically, 19% from liquid resources, and 11% from international long-term contracts [2][7] - The execution volume of long-term contracts with PetroChina increased to 2.56 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 240 million cubic meters [2][7] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 2.9% to 995.8 billion CNY, with a gross profit of 13.9 billion CNY and a net profit attributable to shareholders down by 1% to 3.4 billion CNY [2][11] - Non-GAAP net profit increased by 11% to 3.2 billion CNY, while operating cash flow decreased by 600 million CNY due to inventory purchases [2][11] Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - Capital expenditure remained stable at 5.9 billion CNY, with a slight increase in debt to 37.2 billion CNY and cash reserves rising to 17.4 billion CNY [3][11] Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - The company expects increased contributions from gas stations and platform equipment in Q4, aiming to maintain core profits at last year's levels [5][12] - A special dividend of 0.18 CNY has been paid, with a commitment to a base dividend of 0.96 CNY next year [5][12] Energy Business Development - The energy business achieved stable growth, with total electricity sales reaching 28.99 billion kWh and 378 projects in operation [2][8] - New photovoltaic installations added 529 MW, with a total grid-connected and under-construction capacity of 1,460 MW [2][8] Smart Home Business Growth - The smart home business grew with 32 million household customers, a penetration rate of 69% for new customers, and 13% for existing customers [2][10] - The average transaction price per customer increased to 349 CNY, with a signed amount for smart products reaching 800 million CNY, a 46% year-on-year increase [2][10] Market Conditions and Future Expectations - The company anticipates a positive impact on natural gas demand due to lower temperatures expected in November and January [14] - The overall market for platform trading is expected to see increased competition and potential price declines due to higher global supply [21] Strategic Partnerships and Contracts - The company has established a strategic agreement with SK for the sale of receiving station options, which is expected to enhance overall profits [15][23] - Long-term contracts with competitive pricing continue to be a focus, with over 10 million tons of long-term resources secured [25] Challenges and Adjustments - Recent economic and trade tensions have affected some export clients, prompting a shift towards emerging industry customers with higher profitability [24] - The company is optimizing its business structure to focus on clean and low-carbon energy demands [24] Additional Important Information - The company is actively pursuing a strategy to lock in price differences during off-peak seasons while maintaining flexibility during peak seasons to maximize profits [20] - The utilization rate of the Zhoushan receiving station is expected to improve with the completion of Phase III and the contribution of long-term resources [22]

Group 1: Energy Sector Developments - The National Energy Administration announced the addition of 282 experts to the national power reliability management expert database, covering various specialties including power supply reliability and information system development [2] - In September 2025, 72,18 new renewable energy generation projects (excluding household photovoltaics) were registered, including 32 wind power projects and 7,184 photovoltaic projects [2] - The construction of the largest pumped storage power station in western China, the Wazhang Pumped Storage Power Station, has officially commenced, with a total investment of 1.594 billion RMB and a total installed capacity of 2.8 million kilowatts [3] Group 2: Chemical and Material Innovations - Chinese scientists have made breakthroughs in green catalytic technology, developing a new catalytic control technique for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis that significantly reduces CO2 emissions and increases the yield of liquid fuels and olefins [4] - The completion of the largest ethylene project in southwest China, the Guangxi Petrochemical Ethylene Project, has been reported, featuring a core ethylene unit with a capacity of 120,000 tons per year [3] Group 3: Infrastructure and Construction - The first green building in Fiji, constructed by a Chinese company, has been inaugurated, featuring sustainable design elements such as an integrated energy system and rainwater collection [6] Group 4: International Energy Market Dynamics - Bulgaria's parliament has decided to suspend the export of oil products to other EU member states, which may impact regional energy supply dynamics [5] - Russia's second-largest natural gas producer, Novatek, warned that excluding Russian LNG from the global market could lead to a significant increase in gas prices, affecting European consumers [5]

（原标题：伊朗迈赫尔通讯社编译版:伊朗努力提升天然气出口国地位） 伊朗迈赫尔通讯社10月27日报道，伊朗石油部长帕克内贾德周日在多哈举行的全球能源伙伴关系框 架部长级会议上表示，天然气出口国论坛（GECF）成员国欢迎伊朗提出的将该组织转变为类似石油输 出国组织(OPEC)的提议。塔斯尼姆通讯社分析称，伊朗推动GECF在全球能源市场发挥更大影响力，旨 在保护天然气出口国的利益，免受包括欧洲国家在内的主要消费国政治化决策的影响。分析称，伊朗和 俄罗斯控制着全球40%以上的天然气资源，但对欧洲等关键市场的供应和价格几乎没有控制权。GECF 于2008年底正式成立，旨在协调全球天然气领域的活动。该集团目前由20个国家组成，控制着全球70% 以上的已探明天然气储量和近45%的全球市场产量。（驻伊朗使馆经商处） ...

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and a reduction in net loss for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 2.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 95.91% [1] - The natural gas production in the Shilou West Block saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 112%, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2] - The upcoming winter heating season is expected to drive natural gas demand and prices, potentially marking a turning point for the company's performance [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.037 billion yuan, with a net loss of 1.619 million yuan, showing a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 699 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.97%, and a net loss of 9.9872 million yuan, which is a reduction in loss by 4.291 million yuan year-on-year [2] Production and Sales Growth - The company’s natural gas production increased by 112% year-on-year, with purchased gas volume rising by 69% and sales volume increasing by 96% [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising natural gas prices as the winter heating season approaches, with significant increases in demand from urban gas and industrial sectors [2] Future Outlook - Unconventional gas sources, such as coalbed methane, are projected to become important growth drivers for natural gas supply in China, with the company positioned near significant reserves [3] - The Shilou West Block is expected to see rapid production growth, with natural gas output projected to reach 900 million cubic meters and 1.2 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared to 469 million cubic meters in 2024 [3] - The company anticipates a synergistic growth in volume and efficiency due to favorable policies and decreasing costs [3] Earnings Projections - The company’s estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.15 yuan, 1.26 yuan, and 2.31 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 89.86X, 11.03X, and 6.00X based on the closing price on October 30, 2025 [4]