Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.35%, reaching 24.03 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 704 million CNY and a market capitalization of 54.052 billion CNY as of October 21 [1] Company Overview - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. is located in Yongcheng, Henan Province, and was established on August 31, 1998, with its listing date on August 31, 1999 [1] - The company's main business includes the production, processing, and sales of aluminum products and coal, with the revenue composition as follows: - Electrolytic aluminum: 69.40% - Coal: 14.11% - Aluminum foil: 6.41% - Aluminum foil raw materials: 4.44% - Trade: 3.82% - Other businesses: 1.73% - Transportation: 0.05% - Anode carbon blocks: 0.03% - Type coke: 0.03% [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, one fund under Xinda Australia Fund has a significant holding in Shenhuo Co., Ltd. The Xin'ao New Materials Selected Mixed A Fund (019468) held 19,600 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 3.12% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The Xin'ao New Materials Selected Mixed A Fund was established on November 29, 2023, with a latest scale of 8.5165 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 27.63%, ranking 2811 out of 8162 in its category; one-year returns are 31.75%, ranking 2071 out of 8024; and since inception returns are 37.13% [2]

10月21日，神火股份涨5.35%，截至发稿，报24.03元/股，成交7.15亿元，换手率1.35%，总市值540.52 亿元。 资料显示，河南神火煤电股份有限公司位于河南省永城市东城区东环路北段369号，成立日期1998年8月 31日，上市日期1999年8月31日，公司主营业务涉及铝产品、煤炭的生产、加工和销售及发供电。主营 业务收入构成为：电解铝69.40%，煤炭14.11%，铝箔6.41%，铝箔坯料4.44%，贸易3.82%，其他业务 1.73%，运输0.05%，阳极炭块0.03%，型焦0.03%。 数据显示，中银证券旗下1只基金重仓神火股份。中银证券价值精选混合（002601）二季度持有股数 23.51万股，占基金净值比例为3.24%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约28.68万元。 赵颖芳累计任职时间212天，现任基金资产总规模1.21亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报24.68%， 任职期间 最差基金回报24.68%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long run, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the main strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Recently, Sino - US trade disputes have flared up again, and the short - term decline in risk appetite is conducive to the recovery of the bond market. But the future of tariff progress is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - The Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver, the new Fed chair candidate, has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals [10]. - For most commodities, Sino - US trade frictions and the uncertainty of relevant negotiations have an impact on market sentiment. However, different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends. For the black sector, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][41]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. CATL's Q3 net profit was 18.5 billion yuan, a 41% year - on - year increase; revenue was 104.19 billion yuan, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. Apple's stock price hit a record high, and iPhone 17 demand was strong. Micron's CBO said the DRAM memory supply situation in 2026 would be more severe [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous rise, high - flying sectors face divergence, and short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate - related data showed different trends [5]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade disputes are beneficial to the bond market in the short term, but the future is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may fluctuate, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The market has priced in two consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December. The Fed may end quantitative tightening, and small - bank loan risks have supported precious metal prices [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated and rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong changed, and the import loss narrowed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment has improved. Copper raw material supply is tight, and prices may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 84800 - 86500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10600 - 10800 dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the market trading atmosphere was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased, and the price may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20800 - 21100 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2750 - 2800 dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc fell. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed [16]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and zinc ingot inventory increased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Lead - **Market News**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed, and domestic social inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore port inventory increased, and downstream demand improved. It is expected to be strong in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. Spot prices were stable, and nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were also stable. MHP coefficient prices were high [20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may have a limited impact. Nickel - iron prices are weak, and inventory pressure is high. In the long run, there is support. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market News**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Supply was tight due to slow tin - mine复产 in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some sectors was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may affect sentiment, but supply - demand is in tight balance, and prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The downstream of lithium batteries is in the peak season, and supply is less than demand. Pay attention to the supply recovery. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 73800 - 78000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose slightly. Spot prices, overseas prices, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy**: Ore prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The smelting capacity is in excess, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless - steel futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed. Futures and spot prices, inventory, and trading volume all had corresponding changes [31]. - **Strategy**: The overall commodity market was weak. Steel prices may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term trend is unchanged. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron - ore futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Steel - mill profitability has declined, and prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda - ash prices rose slightly. Inventory, trading volume, and basis changed [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass and soda - ash markets are expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices and basis changed [38]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade frictions and weak demand have pressured prices, but the market may have expectations for future meetings. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector trend, and ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradiction [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial - silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Spot prices, inventory, and basis changed [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply may decrease at the end of the month, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices fluctuated and recovered. Typhoon Fengshen may affect production areas. Tire - enterprise operating rates changed, and inventory decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices are stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long with a stop - loss and consider a hedging strategy [52]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude - oil futures prices fell, and refined - oil futures prices changed. Inventory data showed different trends [53]. - **Strategy**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and use a range - trading strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [55]. - **Strategy**: Import unloading is delayed, and supply has decreased slightly. Demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Short - term production has decreased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [59]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. Supply is abundant, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices may stop falling [60]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [61]. - **Strategy**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene - glycol prices were stable. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [63]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising. It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [65]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [67]. - **Strategy**: PX load is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [70]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [72]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are under pressure [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices mainly rose. There are risks in product sales, and demand may decrease [75]. - **Strategy**: Supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [76]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices fell. Supply is normal, and demand is weak [77]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable, and inventory decreased [79]. - **Strategy**: Domestic supply pressure is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased, and production also increased. Domestic palm - oil and soybean - oil inventories changed [83]. - **Strategy**: There is support for the price center. It is recommended to buy on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices fell. Brazilian production data and Chinese import data were released [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices rebounded. Spot prices, acquisition prices, and import data all had corresponding changes [88]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [89].

Core Insights - Global primary aluminum production increased by 0.9% year-on-year in September, reaching 6.08 million tons, with an average daily production of 202,700 tons [1] - Excluding China and unreported regions, primary aluminum production in September was 2.23 million tons, with an average daily production of 74,300 tons [1]

Group 1 - Aluminum is the most widely used non-ferrous metal, with China being the largest producer and consumer globally [1] - The complete industrial chain in Henan includes bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum [1] - The third Central Plains (Zhengzhou) International Aluminum Industry Exhibition and the sixth Central Plains International Aluminum Processing Innovation Development Conference were held in Zhengzhou [1] Group 2 - Henan Mingtai Aluminum Co., Ltd. focuses on lightweight aluminum materials for automotive applications, achieving a 20% increase in tensile strength and a 15% reduction in thickness for their 6-series aluminum alloy [2] - The new aluminum-ceramic material showcased by Henan Shenhuo Group combines high-temperature resistance and wear resistance, with applications in aerospace and high-end equipment manufacturing [2] - Zhengzhou Hengzhong Heavy Industry Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. offers a complete solution for aluminum plate and foil production, expanding its business to countries like Vietnam [2] Group 3 - The aluminum industry in Henan has developed an industrial pattern of "one belt, two clusters, and three zones," with continuous breakthroughs in high-end aluminum products [3] - Henan's aluminum material export value ranked first in the country last year, indicating a strong position in the market [3] - The province aims to build a competitive advanced aluminum-based materials industry cluster [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced its third-quarter report for 2025, detailing financial data, corporate restructuring, and strategic initiatives, including a planned spin-off of a subsidiary and a bankruptcy restructuring of a related entity [3][12][6]. Financial Data - The third-quarter report has not been audited [10] - The company confirms that there are no adjustments or restatements of previous accounting data [3] - The report includes a statement from the management ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the financial information [2][12] Corporate Actions - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., to enhance its aluminum processing business [4][5] - The board has approved the acquisition of a 51% stake in Shangqiu Sunshine Aluminum Co., Ltd. and the full ownership of Yunnan Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. by Shenhuo New Materials [5] - The company is undergoing a bankruptcy restructuring for its subsidiary, Henan Youse Huiyuan Aluminum Co., Ltd., due to severe losses and inability to continue operations [6][7] Shareholder Information - The company has initiated a share buyback plan with a total amount between 250 million yuan and 450 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 20 yuan per share [7] - As of September 30, 2025, the company has repurchased 15,420,360 shares, accounting for 0.686% of the total share capital [7] Management Changes - Several senior management members have announced plans to reduce their shareholdings in the company, with specific details on the number of shares and the timeframe for the reductions [18][19][20] - The reasons for the share reductions include personal financial needs such as repaying loans related to equity incentives [20]

Core Insights - The company, Jiaozuo Wanfang, primarily operates within Henan Province and currently has no overseas sales activities [2] Company Overview - Jiaozuo Wanfang's main business focus is localized in Henan Province, indicating a regional operational strategy [2] - The company has confirmed that it does not engage in any international sales, which may limit its market exposure and growth potential [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited support to prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - **铝锭**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term and fluctuate. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but the market sentiment is affected by repeated overseas macro - interference events. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production Disruption**: In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 74.1 million tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic sentiment and low winter storage, resulting in a downward - shifting price center [4]. **铝锭** - **Macro Environment**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and again in December. The U.S. federal government shutdown has hindered the release of key macro - economic data, increasing market uncertainty about the U.S. economy [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to increase aluminum ingot production. Domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, with a 400,000 - ton reduction in Shanxi due to the rainy season, but the supply surplus pressure remains. The overall alumina industry still has a profit, and the spot market is in a state of loose supply. The average开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year, and different sub - industries face various challenges [4]. - **Inventory**: On October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has high expectations for the "TACO" trade due to the Sino-US trade game, the continuous rise of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and domestic policy expectations, leading to significant macro fluctuations. The proportion of molten aluminum on the supply side continues to rise, resulting in less pressure on aluminum ingot supply. The consumption side is still in the seasonal peak season, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decrease again. The LME spot premium overseas has been relatively high recently, increasing concerns about liquidity risks. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, ranging from 20,700 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 months increased by 32.5 yuan/ton to 2,778.5 yuan/ton, SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three decreased by 70.0 dollars/ton to 20,925 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1 to 7.5. The LME spot premium increased by 0.8 dollars/ton to 12.88 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 17,600 tons to 491,225 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 11,551 tons to 70,670 tons. The spot average price decreased by 63 yuan/ton to 20,902 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 40 yuan/ton, stabilizing around a small discount to par. The South China spot average price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference increased by 27 yuan/ton to 92 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 2.2 tons to 62.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.45 tons to 14.8 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.2 yuan/ton to 15,830.95 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 22.8 yuan/ton to 5,071.05 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,902 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of the South China spot was 20,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] 3. Market Outlook - The US government shutdown continued in the second week, delaying the release of economic data. Multiple Fed officials spoke, and the market's expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut in October continued to rise to 96.3%, and the probability of another rate cut in December also increased to 99.6%. The Sino-US trade game continued, with various news emerging, causing significant fluctuations in the market's macro atmosphere. In China, the year-on-year growth rate of core inflation in September recovered, and the manufacturing PMI continued to rise in the contraction range to 49.8%. Domestic policies to expand domestic demand this year may still be worth looking forward to. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September increased by 1.23 percentage points to 76.3%, and it is expected to increase by another 1 percentage point in October. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum operating rate remained stable at 62.5% last week. With the price decline and post-festival replenishment, the spot procurement enthusiasm was good. The spot price rebounded following the futures price, and the transaction premium and discount stabilized around a small discount to par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased again this week, with a reduction of 2.3 tons to 62.7 tons; the aluminum rod inventory was 14.8 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from last Thursday [3][8] 4. Industry News - In recent weeks, Canadian aluminum producers have increased shipments to the US market due to the rising aluminum prices in the US spot market, highlighting the impact of the 50% aluminum import tariff imposed by Trump earlier this year. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 report showed that bauxite production increased by 9% year-on-year to 16.4 million tons, alumina production reached 1.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and primary aluminum production was 0.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The company raised the production target for bauxite from 57-59 million tons (higher level) to 59-61 million tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the cancellation of the copper and aluminum futures storage point of Shanghai Port Cloud Warehouse (Shanghai) Storage Management Co., Ltd. in Baoshan District, Shanghai, with a verified storage capacity of 10,000 tons for both copper and aluminum [9] 5. Relevant Charts - The report includes 10 charts, showing the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio, the LME aluminum premium, the Shanghai aluminum current month - continuous one inter - period price difference, the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference, the seasonal spot premium of physical trade, the prices of domestic and imported alumina, the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and the seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [10][11][12][13][14]