期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 钢材：市场驱动不足，钢价震荡运行 展望：综合来看，螺纹钢市场短期将处于多空博弈交织之中。相对偏低水平库存和宏观暖意限制价格大 幅下跌的空间，而疲软的实际需求和持续的累库过程也抑制了上涨动能，预计价格将以小幅盘整为主，整体 走势偏稳，趋势性行情需待节后需求表现。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 | 钢材 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 227.98 | 228.1 | -0.12 | -0.05% | 周度 | | 螺纹钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 149.13 | 148.98 | 0.15 | 0.10% | 周度 | | 螺纹社会库存 | 万吨 | 326.4 | 303.12 | 23.28 | 7.68% | 周度 | | 热卷钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 77.25 | 76.64 | 0.61 | 0.80% | 周度 | | 热卷社会库存 | 万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a comprehensive transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, driven by China's "dual carbon" strategy, aiming to enhance sustainable development in the real economy [1] Group 1: Energy System Innovation - The company has made significant breakthroughs in energy efficiency and urban carbon reduction, with two 65MW ultra-high temperature subcritical gas generator sets expected to generate approximately 680 million kWh of green electricity annually, reducing carbon emissions by about 364,900 tons [2] - The implementation of refined and intelligent energy management strategies is projected to save over 4 million yuan in electricity costs annually by optimizing production scheduling and maintenance plans [2][3] Group 2: Environmental Protection and Ecological Coexistence - The company has invested nearly 1 billion yuan in over 90 ultra-low emission projects, achieving ultra-low emission standards across major production processes, with significant advancements in emissions control [3][4] - The company has created a green area of 748,200 square meters, achieving a greening rate of 39.02%, and has transformed from a "steel factory" to an "ecological park," recognized as a national 4A-level tourist attraction [4] Group 3: Digital and Intelligent Empowerment - The company is advancing its digital transformation, achieving AAA-level certification in the national integration management system and L8-level in digital development, indicating deep application in the industry [5] - The launch of the "Iron Front Integration" intelligent control platform in December 2025 will enhance data integration and business collaboration across core production processes [6] Group 4: Innovation and Industry Collaboration - The company has established strategic cooperation with leading new energy firms, developing high-performance steel products for the new energy vehicle sector, enhancing its position in the supply chain [7] - The company has successfully penetrated high-end markets in Southeast Asia and has been involved in setting national standards for automotive spring steel, enhancing brand influence and market competitiveness [7][8]

格隆汇2月2日丨首钢股份(000959.SZ)公布，截至2026年1月31日，公司通过回购股份专用证券账户以集 中竞价交易方式累计回购公司股份37,010,216股，占公司当前总股本的0.4772%，最高成交价为5.84元/ 股，最低成交价为4.06元/股，支付总金额为172,631,932.07元（不含交易费用）。本次回购股份资金来 源为自有资金及股票回购专项贷款，回购价格未超过回购方案中拟定的上限6.50元/股。本次回购符合 相关法律法规的要求，符合公司既定的回购股份方案。 ...

友发集团公告称，2025年12月26日股东大会通过预计2026年度提供与接受担保额度议案，担保总额不超 166.63亿元。2026年1月1 - 31日，江苏友发、唐山友发新型建材以自有资产抵/质押，账面价值15,036万 元。截至1月31日，公司累计抵/质押资产账面价值296,118.18万元，占最近一期经审计净资产的 37.34%。本次抵质押是为满足正常生产经营，风险可控。 ...

| 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 1 月经济：数量篇 中电联口径截至 1 月 22 日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比增长 4.6%（去年 12 月同比为 -8.5%）。春节错位可能是关键影响因素之一，去年春节在 1 月底；而今年春节在 2 月中下旬，1 月企业普遍处 于正常开工 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.69% to 13824.35 points, the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropping by 3.88% to 1450.90 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 2.46% to 3264.11 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 770 stocks that rose while 4647 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 25,848 billion yuan, a decrease of 250.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only the food and beverage and banking sectors saw gains, with increases of 1.11% and 0.17% respectively. In contrast, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, coal, and oil and petrochemicals experienced significant declines, with drops of 7.62%, 5.93%, 5.69%, 5.64%, and 5.51% respectively [1][10] - The leading concept sectors for today included ultra-high voltage, liquor, selected beverage manufacturing, cultivated diamonds, central enterprise banks, virtual power plants, superhard materials, charging piles, Pinduoduo partners, brand leaders, and solar thermal power, all of which showed positive performance [2][12]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has rebounded to 10.75% as of January 25, 2026, up 2.60% from January 11, 2026 [9] - The land premium rate has increased to 3.6% as of January 25, 2026, with a four-week average of 1.7% [4][13] - Container throughput at ports has shown a year-on-year increase of 7.7% as of January 26, 2026, despite a week-on-week decrease of 4.4% [4][22] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction - The sales of commercial residential properties remain below last year's Lunar New Year levels, with a year-on-year decrease of 20% in the week ending January 31, 2026 [4][13] - The construction industry shows weak performance, with the operating rate lower than last year's Lunar New Year period [4][20] Group 3: Trade and Prices - Agricultural products and oil prices have risen, with egg prices increasing by 3.1% and crude oil prices reaching $65.2 per barrel, up 6.8% [4][36] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has surged by 21.9%, indicating a significant increase in shipping costs [37] Group 4: Financial Markets - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference remains high at 3.91, indicating better relative value in stocks compared to bonds [11] - The DR007 rate has slightly increased to 1.5926% as of January 30, 2026, reflecting changes in liquidity conditions [45]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% [1] - The North Stock 50 Index decreased by 2.03%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 26,066 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,558 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,600 stocks across the three markets experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals, oil and gas extraction and services, chemicals, coal, steel, semiconductor, PEEK materials, and photolithography concept stocks all saw significant declines [1] - Conversely, the liquor and electric grid equipment sectors showed resilience, with several stocks in these sectors hitting the daily limit [1] Commodity Market - There was a substantial sell-off in commodities during the Asia-Pacific trading session, leading to sharp declines in metals, oil and gas, chemicals, coal, and steel sectors [1] - Specific stocks such as Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous faced significant selling pressure, with nearly 10 billion yuan in sell orders and over 6 billion yuan in sell orders respectively [1] - More than 30 stocks, including Zhongman Petroleum and Intercontinental Oil & Gas, hit the daily limit down [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector also experienced a significant downturn, with stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation hitting the daily limit down, and Jiangbolong and Baiwei Storage dropping over 10% during trading [1] Resilient Sectors - The electric grid equipment sector benefited from policy support and increased demand for computing power, with stocks like Tongguang Cable and Baobian Electric hitting the daily limit up [1] - The liquor sector demonstrated strong performance, with stocks such as Jinhui Liquor and Huangtai Liquor reaching the daily limit up [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market is currently in a state where contradictions are not prominent, with unclear valuations and drivers. The market is affected by seasonal factors, and the trading opportunities are limited. Different sub - sectors (steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore) have their own characteristics and trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these [8][67][118] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron and steel production shows a narrow - range fluctuation. This week, the molten iron output decreased by 0.12 to 228wt, and the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly month - on - month, higher than the same period in 2025 but slightly lower than that in 2024. It is basically certain that the molten iron output has bottomed out in the range of 225 - 226. The electric furnace operation will decline after the end of the month to balance the total crude steel output [8] - **Demand**: Building material demand shows obvious seasonality, with a significant decline in transactions. Plate demand remains stable, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled products is slightly better than that for hot - rolled products, but the price difference between cold - rolled and hot - rolled products has not strengthened. The market sentiment index fluctuates around rigid demand, and speculative demand is relatively weak [8] - **Inventory**: The social inventory level of the five major steel products is between 2025 and 2025, and the weekly inventory has shifted from destocking to seasonal inventory accumulation. The inventory accumulation of building materials has increased, while the inventory accumulation rhythm of plates is relatively neutral [8] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly decreased. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 82, a month - on - month decrease of 16; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 18, a month - on - month decrease of 3 [8] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is moderately low, and the actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit. The profit of rebar is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 39.39%, a weekly change of - 1.3% [8] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, which is more suitable for rolling spot - futures positive arbitrage. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [8] - **Macro and Risk Preference**: Commodity fluctuations have increased, and leading varieties have experienced large - scale historical fluctuations [8] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and there are no obvious trading opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trading, and continue to roll the spot - futures positive arbitrage of hot - rolled coils [8][9] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The steel market has entered the off - season. This week, the apparent demand for the five major steel products is 801.74 (+7.78), and the output is 823.17 (+3.58). The industry data is generally weak, with relatively stable supply, seasonal weakening of demand, and inventory accumulation. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 227.98 (-0.12), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 39.39% (-1.30%) [68][82][86] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Although safety production cuts have been tightened in some areas, the Fenwei output has increased this week. Next week, some coal mines will start to take holidays, and the output will gradually decline. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, but due to port storage capacity pressure, the high - level customs clearance has slowed down. The market trading is cold. The high - price overseas coal has faced increasing resistance from terminal users [68][94] - **Coke Supply**: The daily average coke output this week is 109.8 (-0.4), and the coking profit is - 55 (-11). Affected by production restrictions and cuts, the coking enterprise operation continues to decline [68][95] - **Inventory**: The downstream inventory replenishment has slowed down. The market is still in the winter inventory replenishment cycle, and the upstream inventory is being transferred to the downstream. The coking enterprises' replenishment of raw coal is basically coming to an end, while the steel mills still have inventory replenishment needs. The first round of coke price increase has finally been implemented, but the coking coal price has gradually declined, and the driving force of inventory replenishment on price is weakening [68][98] - **Basis/Spread**: The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the market sentiment has not been boosted. The cost of the first - round price - increased warehouse receipts for wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke in the 05 contract is 1729/1756, and the port trading quotation is around 1728. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1130 [68] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 39.39% (-1.30%), and the coking profit is - 55 (-11) [68] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to cash in the spot at an appropriate time and wait for the opportunity to short the futures after the price rises. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [68] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a month - on - month decline of 4.2 tons per day to 418 tons per day. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia decreased by 13.3 tons per day, that from Brazil increased by 3.8 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines increased by 5.2 tons per day to 89.8 tons per day. The total arrival volume in China has increased by 47.9 tons per day month - on - month, with a decrease of 13.2 tons per day from Australia, an increase of 63.4 tons per day from Brazil, and a decrease of 2.4 tons per day from non - mainstream sources [118] - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills this period is basically stable at 227.98 tons (-0.12). The maintenance and resumption of production of steel mills in various regions are routine operations. The profitability rate of steel mills has slightly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% to 39.39%. According to the maintenance plan, the molten iron output will continue to increase significantly in February. The daily average port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased significantly by 27.19 tons to 347.71 tons. Therefore, with the decrease in the number of ships waiting at the port, the port inventory has increased by 261.73 tons, continuously higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [118] - **Inventory**: The daily average port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased significantly to a relatively high seasonal level, but the number of ships waiting at the port has decreased, so the port inventory has increased again, continuously higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [118] - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [118] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively high. From a fundamental perspective, the in - plant inventory of steel mills is still at a relatively low level in recent years. However, the expectation of accelerated resumption of production by steel mills in February and the inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival have a significant impact on the transfer of iron ore inventory, which is one of the reasons for the relatively high iron ore price in the short term [118] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long in the short term and shorting at the pressure level in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [118]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhongnan Steel shares fell by 5.32% to 2.49 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 157 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 6.035 billion CNY [1] - Zhongnan Steel, established on April 29, 1997, and listed on May 8, 1997, is primarily engaged in the production and sales of steel products, with its main revenue sources being rebar (36.51%), plates (19.99%), steel billets (14.81%), wire rods (14.25%), base management and brand operation (7.46%), and coking products and others (6.98%) [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Zhongnan Steel, a fund under China Merchants Fund, specifically the China Merchants Quantitative Selected Stock A (001917), entered the top ten in the third quarter, holding 11.9 million shares, which is 0.49% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating loss of approximately 1.666 million CNY today [2] - The China Merchants Quantitative Selected Stock A fund, established on March 15, 2016, has a latest scale of 3.692 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 6.54% ranking 2115 out of 5580 in its category, a one-year return of 47.25% ranking 1496 out of 4286, and a cumulative return since inception of 304.6% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of China Merchants Quantitative Selected Stock A is Wang Ping, who has a cumulative tenure of 15 years and 230 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 21.446 billion CNY, achieving the best fund return of 304.6% and the worst return of -70.61% during his tenure [3]