Group 1 - Concerns over deteriorating China-Japan relations have led to a sell-off in tourism-related stocks in the Tokyo stock market, with some stocks dropping over 10% [1] - Notable declines include Mitsukoshi Isetan Holdings down 10.64%, Takashimaya down 6.29%, and Shiseido, which is heavily reliant on Chinese consumer spending, dropping over 11% [1] - The operator of Tokyo Disneyland, Oriental Land Co., saw its stock decrease by approximately 5%, while All Nippon Airways Holdings fell by 4.74% [1] Group 2 - Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities predict that the Chinese government's travel warnings will negatively impact the performance of related companies, prompting rapid stock sell-offs [1] - According to Japan's National Tourism Organization, nearly one-fifth of international visitors to Japan in 2024 are expected to come from China, amounting to about 7 million people [1] - Nomura Research Institute forecasts that the Chinese government's travel advisories could lead to a reduction in Japan's tourism revenue by approximately 2.2 trillion yen (about 14.3 billion USD), which may drag down Japan's real GDP by 0.36% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese retail stocks have faced significant declines due to a warning from China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism advising Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan, coupled with negative economic data indicating a contraction in Japan's GDP [1][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Market Impact - The Japanese stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 0.7% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 0.8% [3]. - Notable retail and tourism-related stocks saw substantial drops, including Shiseido, which fell over 11%, and Mitsukoshi Isetan, which plummeted more than 12% [3][4]. - Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, saw its stock price decrease by nearly 7% [4]. Group 2: Economic Data - Japan's Cabinet Office reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for the third quarter, marking a return to negative growth since the first quarter of 2024 [6][7]. - The GDP decreased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, with exports of goods and services falling by 1.2% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [7]. - Domestic consumption, which constitutes over half of Japan's economy, showed only a slight increase of 0.1% in the same period, indicating weak internal demand [7]. Group 3: Tourism and Economic Forecast - The decline in Chinese tourists, who account for approximately 25% of foreign visitors to Japan, is expected to significantly impact the tourism sector [5]. - Analysts estimate that a substantial drop in Chinese visitors could reduce Japan's GDP by 0.36%, leading to an economic loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen (about 101.16 billion RMB) [5]. - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7% due to ongoing economic pressures [7]. Group 4: Government Response - The Japanese government is considering a stimulus plan worth approximately 17 trillion yen (around 110 billion USD) to counteract economic downturns [8].

编辑丨肖潇 大模型"偷书"算不算"偷"？是贯穿生成式AI发展过程中的议题，近几年版权纠纷的熊熊战火足以说明其重要性。 本月，OpenAI分别在欧洲大陆和美国本土迎来两起诉讼，把这个问题又推向了新的高度： 一起是被称为欧洲首例生成式AI版权侵权案，据央视报道， 当地时间11月11日，德国慕尼黑第一地区法院裁定：OpenAI未经许可使用受著作 权保护的音乐歌词训练ChatGPT模型，已构成侵权。 记者丨王俊 图/德国慕尼黑法院就GEMA v. OpenAI案的判决书 另外一起则是已经缠斗两年的《纽约时报》诉OpenAI案，11月7日，纽约南区联邦法院法官Ona T. Wang发布最新命令，责令OpenAI向《纽 约时报》提交多达2000万条ChatGPT用户日志。 业内对这两起案件倾注了足够的关注，仔细翻阅法律文书，有很多高光点不容忽视： 1、推翻"合理使用" 此前的不少判决中，大模型训练被视为"合理使用"，即在特定情况下，模型无需得到授权即可使用作品。但德国法院率先认定，AI模型"记 忆"与"输出"歌词均构成复制侵权，将AI"学习"定性为"偷书"。 技术祛魅，大模型训练数据的过程并不神秘 生成式AI的训练过程是 ...

Macro Research - In October, industrial, consumption, and investment growth rates have all slowed down, reflecting both short-term disturbances from holiday timing and high base effects, as well as gradually emerging pressures on domestic and external demand [1][24] - High-growth industries and policy-supported sectors, such as automotive and transportation equipment, are benefiting from seasonal demand and infrastructure project advancements, maintaining active production [24] - Online consumption continues to show steady growth due to convenience and promotional activities, while traditional consumption sectors and real estate-related areas are experiencing weak demand [24] Computer Industry - Alibaba has launched the "Qwen" project to develop a personal AI assistant app, aiming to compete directly with ChatGPT, marking a significant strategic expansion into the consumer market [5] - Baidu has emphasized the value of AI applications and showcased a series of self-developed hardware, including the Kunlun chip, to strengthen its autonomous computing capabilities [6] - The domestic GPU company, Muxi, has received approval for its IPO, which will fund the development of high-performance general-purpose GPUs, indicating a key step for domestic high-end chips [7] - The computer sector maintains an "overweight" rating, with recommended stocks including Risheng Technology, Kingdee International, and others [4] Non-ferrous Metals Industry - The liquidity crisis has eased following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, leading to a recovery in precious metals [8] - Gold prices are expected to rise as market liquidity improves, while rare earth prices have continued to decline, indicating a cautious trading atmosphere [8] - Copper prices may experience volatility due to fluctuating Fed rate cut expectations and seasonal demand, but long-term demand remains strong [9] - The aluminum sector is seeing a positive outlook due to supply-demand dynamics, with rising prices and low inventory levels [9] Cosmetics Industry - The Double Eleven shopping festival showed robust double-digit growth, with instant retail and full-chain integration becoming key trends [12] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and international high-end brands have shown stable growth, with Pechoin maintaining its leading position in the Tmall beauty category [13] - Brands such as Ru Yuchen and Shangmei have reported significant growth in sales during the Double Eleven period, indicating strong brand performance [14]

Group 1 - Fast Retailing (06288) shares fell over 6%, currently down 6.52% at HKD 26.4, with a trading volume of HKD 159,000 [1] - The Japanese stock market saw significant declines in several consumer stocks, with Shiseido dropping over 9% and Fast Retailing experiencing a decline of over 6% [1] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism in China issued a travel advisory, citing a deterioration in the safety environment for Chinese citizens in Japan due to rising crime rates and several unresolved cases involving Chinese nationals [1] Group 2 - Recent provocative remarks by Japanese leaders regarding Taiwan have further strained the atmosphere for exchanges between China and Japan, posing significant risks to the personal safety of Chinese citizens in Japan [1]

Group 1 - Japanese stock market saw a significant drop in tourism-related stocks, with multiple stocks falling over 10% [3] - Major retail and airline stocks in Japan also experienced substantial declines, with Shiseido's stock price dropping by 11% and Isetan Mitsukoshi's stock falling by over 12% [3][4] - Fast Retailing's stock fell by more than 6%, while Japan Airlines also saw a decline of nearly 6% [4] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued a travel warning for Japan, citing deteriorating safety conditions for Chinese citizens, including multiple incidents of violence against them [4] - The warning has led to a significant impact on the perception of safety in Japan, affecting the willingness of Chinese tourists to visit [4]

三越伊势丹股价亦重挫，盘中跌幅一度超过12%。资料显示，三越伊势丹是日本最大的百货集团之一。 日本股市旅游相关股今天上午重挫。 A股市场整体低开 A股市场今天上午整体低开，上证指数开盘跌0.05%，深证成指开盘跌0.12%，创业板指开盘跌0.46%。 进入连续竞价阶段后，A股市场一度进一步走低。 从行业板块方面来看，银行、医药生物、公用事业等板块上午盘中领跌。国防军工、通信、电子等板块盘中走高。 日本股市旅游相关股上午重挫 多股跌逾10% 11月17日上午，日本股市和旅游相关股票大幅下挫，日股市场零售股、航空股也大幅下跌。资生堂上午盘中股价一度下跌11%，出现较明显的向下跳空缺口。资料 显示，资生堂是日本化妆品品牌，创立于1872年。 END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 王兴兴发声！资本助推机器人IPO热潮 丨 释永信被批 捕！ 丨 AI重磅！英伟达，即将发布！ 丨 000695，终止重大资产重组！ 丨 猛烈抛售！比特币，跌势加剧！近18万人爆仓！ 丨 002128，重大资产重组！ 丨 巴菲特，退休前大换仓！ 丨 ...

此外，旅游相关个股周一上午同样遭抛售，航空运营商全日本航空跌3.8%，酒店连锁企业共立维修跌 8.1%。 分析认为，中国国内抵制日本商品的风险也在增加，如果这种情况发生，将会阻碍资生堂、优衣库、无 印良品Muji和亚瑟士在中国拓展销售的计划。 智通财经APP获悉，由于中日外交争端持续升级，周一亚太早盘，日本股市盘初跌1%，随后收复部分 失地，日经225指数目前跌0.32%。日本旅游相关股票下挫，零售股、航空股大跌。具体来看，深受中 国游客青睐的资生堂化妆品公司股价暴跌11%，创今年4月以来最大单日跌幅;零售店泛太平洋控股股价 一度重挫8.9%，为2024年8月以来最大跌幅。 百货业方面，日本最大的百货集团三越伊势丹股价跌幅超12%，其同业J Front 零售及高岛屋股价亦均跌 超6%。东京迪士尼度假区运营商东方乐园股价下跌超5%，优衣库母公司迅销股价则下跌6.9%，创7月 中旬以来最大单日跌幅。 ...

Market Overview - On November 17, the Nikkei 225 index opened with a significant drop, falling over 1% and briefly dipping below 50,000 points before narrowing its losses [1] - As of 9:31 AM, the index was at 50,165.30, down 211.23 points or 0.42% from the previous close [2] Stock Performance - Japanese tourism-related stocks experienced substantial declines, with Shiseido's stock price dropping nearly 10% [2] - Japan Airlines fell over 5%, while other consumer and retail stocks such as Sanrio, Asics, and Fast Retailing saw declines of 7.8%, 6.6%, and 4.83% respectively [2][3] - Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings and Muji both saw their stock prices drop by 12%, marking the largest decline since August 2024 [2] Economic Indicators - The Japanese Cabinet Office reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for Q3, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [5] - The real GDP decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [5] Impact of Travel Advisories - Following safety concerns and travel advisories issued by the Chinese government, there is a notable decrease in travel to Japan, which is expected to significantly impact the Japanese tourism industry [5] - Chinese tourists account for approximately 25% of all foreign visitors to Japan, with nearly 7.5 million mainland Chinese tourists visiting Japan in the first nine months of the year [5]

日本旅游类股大幅下挫，资生堂股价下跌11%。日本航空一度下跌5.8%。日本其他消费品/零售股方面，三丽鸥跌7.8%、亚瑟士跌6.6%、迅销跌 6.9%。百货店经营商伊势丹三越控股公司股价下跌 12%。 ...